西非铝矾土进口海运供应链风险评估

在分析从西非到我国终端客户的铝钒土进口海运供应链(Bauxit Import Maritime Supply Chain,BIMSC)内部和外部影响因素的基础上,采用故障模式与影响分析(Failure Mode and Effects Analysis,FMEA)和模糊贝叶斯网络(Fuzzy Bayesian Network,FBN)相结合的方法,建立BIMSC风险评估方法的概念框架。采用FMEA辨识潜在的失效模式,并剖析失效原因和后果;根据失效模式潜在的因果关系建立贝叶斯网络;利用三角模糊数处理表征风险参数的不确定性,评估BIMSC风险水平,并进行敏感性分析,确定风险因子排序。研究结果表明,港口操作中的违规操作、违规指挥、货物易流态化和安全管理问题是主要的风险因素。

Risk Assessment Concerning Bauxit Import Maritime Supply Chain from West Africa

A BIMSC(Bauxit Import Maritime Supply Chain)from West Africa to the end-users in China has been formed.Based on the analysis of the marine supply chain,the external and internal influencing factors involved are discussed and analyzed.The conceptual framework of risk assessment concerning the chain is established by combining FMEA(Failure Mode and Effects Analysis)with FBN(Fuzzy Bayesian Network).FMEA is to identify the potential failure modes and to analyze their causes and consequences.The Bayesian network is established based on the implicit causalities in the failure modes.The triangular fuzzy number is to deal with the uncertainty of the parameters of the identified risk factors,and the prior probabilities of each node are found.Sensitivity analysis is carried out to prioritize the risk factors and to get the risk level of the supply chain.The analysis shows that violation of operation regulations and unauthorized commanding in the port operation,fluidization of cargo and port safety management are the four major risk factors.