Prediction of most probable extreme values for jackup dynamic analysis

Many important technical issues in the design of deep water jackup rigs stem from the prediction of extreme values of global design parameters such as platform sway, base shear, and overturning moment. Several analytical methods primarily based on time-domain dynamic simulation have been recommended in SNAME T&R Bulletin 5–5A (hereafter referred to as “the Bulletin”) in the realm of the so-called most probable maximum extreme. This paper compares the four major dynamic, time-domain methods recommended in the Bulletin, investigates the random seed effect on each method, exams the convergence of the statistical properties within the recommended time simulation, and presents the impact on the dynamic response due to various parameters, e.g. leg-to-hull flexibility, P-delta effect and foundation fixity. Comparison among the four methods is presented in terms of the calculated extreme values and the corresponding dynamic amplification factors. The structural models employed in this investigation were constructed to reflect the behavior of two jackup rigs in service. These rigs were purposely selected to represent two of the most widely used jackup designs, which are of different leg types, different chord types, and designed for different water depth.