| 市场随机波动下干散货和原油船投资决策研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑士源.市场随机波动下干散货和原油船投资决策研究[J].中国造船,2011,52(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑士源 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海海事大学交通运输学院,上海,201306 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目，教育部人文社科青年基金项目，上海海事大学校基金项目，上海市重点学科建设项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用实物期权博弈理论,建立了航运市场随机波动情况下干散货和原油船舶的投资决策模型,得出了承运人之间同质竞争和差异化竞争时船舶的最优投资准则.理论研究和实证分析均表明:承运人的收益和投资船舶的边际收益随航运市场规模和风险的增加而增加;最优的船舶投资量与航运市场的规模和风险正相关;随着航运市场竞争的加剧,承运人的收益和最优的船舶投资量呈下降趋势;随着承运人之间服务差异化程度的增加,承运人的收益和最优的船舶投资量呈上升趋势.
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| 关 键 词： | 干散货 原油 船舶 投资 决策 随机波动 |
Study on Investment Decision about Dry Bulk and Oil Ship under Stochastically Fluctuating Shipping Markets |
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| ZHENG Shiyuan.Study on Investment Decision about Dry Bulk and Oil Ship under Stochastically Fluctuating Shipping Markets[J].Shipbuilding of China,2011,52(1). |
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| Authors: | ZHENG Shiyuan |
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| Institution: | ZHENG Shiyuan(School of Transportation,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper establishes a model for investment decision about dry bulk and oil ship,and gets the optimal ship investment criteria in homogenous and heterogeneous competition among carriers by means of the real option game.The results of both theoretical analysis and empirical studies show that(1) carrier's total revenue and marginal revenue of ship investment will be raised as the scale and the risk of shipping market increase;(2) carrier's optimal ship investment size is positive correlated with the scale a... |
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| Keywords: | dry bulk oil ship investment decision stochastic fluctuation |
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