船舶生产设计工时体系及预测模型研究

设计工时定额是设计管理的重要基础数据.由于船舶设计建造过程中的设计工时尤其是生产设计工时没有准确的基础数据,也缺乏有效的工时预测模型,导致无法对设计工作进行有效管理.研究的目的是建立船舶生产设计工时体系及工时预测模型.对项目工时中的图纸作业和非图纸作业进行研究,建立了非图纸作业工时的模型和图纸作业工时的神经网络预测模型.以某船厂的设计项目进行了验证,表明该模型是有效和准确的,可以为加强设计管理、提高设计效率提供依据和基础.

Research on Man-hour Prediction Model of Production Design for Shipbuilding

Design man-hour quota is the important base for design management. Since there is no exact man-hour data of production design and effective forecasting model for man-hour, design work is difficult to manage effectively. In consideration of above situations, a production design man-hour model is established. The regression model for no-drawing job and the neural network model for drawing job in production design are developed. An actual case from a shipyard is studied to valid the effectiveness of neural network modeling. This study will improve design efficiency and shorten design period in shipbuilding.