时限计划的预测模型和分析

本文介绍了时限计划的概念，层次，作用范围，阐述了造船计划系统的结构。应用S形曲线研究时限计划的柔性，并提出了工时矩阵的概念，建立了S型曲线的预测模型，分析了预测模型在船厂中长期计划的应用前景。

Forecast Model of Frame Time Planning and Analyzing

The concept, structure and effecting range of frame time planning are analyzed in the paper. A flexible frame time schedule is studied by using S type curve. The man hour accumulation S curve is analyzed, and its character is generalized into five points. The characters, composition and system structure of flexibility planning, the sustain condition of flexibility planning are studied. The diffe rence between the S curve of Logistic model and the real man hour accumulation S curve, then a prediction modeling of man hour accumulation are put forward. On condition of lack of historical statistic data in China, the model can be used to predict ship's S curve. A new conception "man hour matrix" is presented in the paper. With its application, the macroscopic control of manpower, man hour cost, capital and material can be realized. The procedure and the method of setting up midterm plan by using S curves as well as the strategy of adjusting available man hour and necessary man hour are also explained.