基于马尔科夫模型的船舶设备多状态系统可靠性分析方法

基于多状态理论和马尔科夫模型,建立船舶设备复杂系统的多状态可靠性模型,推导封闭形式的时变状态概率微分解算方程,给出可用度、期望性能输出和期望性能失效等可靠性度量参数分析方法。针对多状态船舶设备特种装置,实施时变可靠性典型算例分析,结果表明:利用马尔科夫模型分析多状态系统可靠性能,具有程式化高、通用性好且结论合理的特点,形成的建模思路、解算程式和分析方法可为船舶设备复杂系统的可靠性分析技术发展提供参考。

Calculating method to the reliability of Warship Armament multi-state system using Markov model

Develop the reliability research has great significance to the design and development of warship armaments. Based on the multi-state theory and Markov model, the multi-state reliability model for the complex system about warship armaments is established, and the differential equations for calculating the state probability in closed form are deduced. Then the analysis method with respect to some reliability measurement parameters, such as availability, expected mean performance, and expected performance deficiency, are presented. Take multi-state special device system with unrepairable maintenance strategy as an example, those reliability measurement parameters are calculated respectively. Calculating result shows that the reliability analysis method adopted Markov model for multi-state system has good stylization, good generality, and reasonable conclusion. Moreover, the modeling ideas, solving equation, and analytic technique given in this paper, can provided reference for the development of the reliability analysis technology.