船舶横摇运动预测误差研究

通过对船舶横摇运动的预测误差与输入过去样本长度之间的关系进行研究,提出船舶横摇运动预测误差的经验公式,该公式可用于确定指定预测误差下的最小过去样本长度.采用小波-自回归算法模型进行横摇预测,统计分析预测均方根误差值与输入过去样本长度之间的关系,结果表明,预测过去样本长度与预测均方根误差之间遵循幂函数关系.

Research on prediction error of ship rolling motion

The input past sample size is an essential fact of prediction accuracy of ship rolling motion. Based on the relationship between the past sample size and the prediction error, this paper proposes an empirical expression of the prediction error of ship rolling motion. The formula can be used to calculate the past sample size when the prediction error is set in advance. In this paper, wavelet autoregressive algorithm model is used for time series of ship rolling, and root mean square error is used to estimate the prediction error. The results show that the relationship between the predicted sample size and the root mean square error follows a power function.