允许越浪条件下海堤越浪量可靠度分析*

基于可靠度理论,进行了允许越浪条件下海堤越浪量的可靠度分析,建立了允许越浪条件下海堤越浪量的极限状态方程。以青岛某斜坡式海堤为例,将有效波高和谱峰周期作为基本随机变量进行越浪量可靠度分析。首先对有效波高和谱峰周期进行Log-normal、Gumbel分布拟合,根据拟合结果,二者均采用Log-normal分布,然后采用Monte Carlo模拟计算了该海堤越浪量的可靠性指标。计算结果表明:进行允许越浪条件下海堤越浪量的可靠度分析是可行的,并且海堤越浪量的可靠性指标概率意义明确,比允许越浪量标准更合理。

Sea wall overtopping reliability analysis under allowable overtopping

Based on the reliability theory, this paper analyzes sea wall overtopping reliability under the condition of overtopping allowed and establishes the limit state function for sea wall overtopping. The overtopping failure probability and reliability index of a sloping sea wall in Qingdao are calculated using Monte Carlo simulation method and taking the significant wave height and the spectrum peak period as variables. The significant wave height and the spectrum peak period are fitted using Log-normal fitting and Gumbel fitting. The Log-normal fitting is adopted according to the fitting results. It is concluded that sea wall overtopping reliability analysis is feasible, the probabilistic meaning of the sea wall overtopping reliability index is definite, and the sea wall overtopping reliability index is more reasonable than the standard of the tolerable overtopping limits.