灰色系统模型在内河港口吞吐量预测中的应用

根据淮南港吞吐量实际调查资料,选择灰色系统理论对其进行吞吐预测研究,结果表明,对不同的预测时期应采用不同的灰色系统预测模型。对于短期预测,采用GM(1,1)模型与Verhulst模型的组合模型;对于长期预测,采用Verhulst模型并用GM(1,1)模型对其残差进行修正。实例验证以上两种模型是可行性的。

Application of Grey System Model in Throughput Forecasting of Inland River Port

Based on the practical investigation data of the throughput of Huainan Port,Grey System Theory is selected to research into the throughput forecasting.The result indicates that different grey-system forecasting models shall be selected in different forecasting periods.A combination of GM(1,1) and Verhulst is adopted in short-term forecasting,and Verhulst model,which is revised by GM(1,1)model,is applied in long-term forecasting.The feasibility of the two models is verified through the instance of throughput forecasting of Huainan Port.