| 基于系统动力学的港口吞吐量预测模型 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 许长新,严以新,张萍.基于系统动力学的港口吞吐量预测模型[J].水运工程,2006(5):26-28,40. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 许长新 严以新 张萍 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 河海大学商学院,江苏,南京,210098
2. 河海大学交通学院,江苏,南京,210098 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 江苏省"港口、海岸及近海工程"省级重点学科建设项目 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 将系统动力学方法应用于港口吞吐量预测模型。考虑了各种主要因素对港口吞吐量的影响，较好地解决了港口吞吐量预测方法中考虑系统因素较少的问题以及经济、社会发展水平的不确定性等影响港口吞吐量预测所产生的误差问题。采用宁波市港口各相关统计数据对模型进行了仿真和验证．结果证明该模型有效、可行。
|
| 关 键 词： | 港口吞吐量 系统动力学 模型预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-4972（2006）05-0026-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-12-18 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-12-18 |
Prediction Model of Port Throughput Based on System Dynamics |
| |
| XU Chang-xin,YAN Yi-xin,ZHANG Ping.Prediction Model of Port Throughput Based on System Dynamics[J].Port & Waterway Engineering,2006(5):26-28,40. |
| |
| Authors: | XU Chang-xin YAN Yi-xin ZHANG Ping |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Business School of Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 2. Traffic College of Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China |
| |
| Abstract: | System dynamics method was used for port throughput predication. The model established was able to give an overall consideration to all factors affecting port throughput predication, and give favorable solution to the errors in prediction of port throughput due to social and economic development. The proposed model was verified to be effective and feasible by simulation using relevant statistical data of port volume of Ningbo City. |
| |
| Keywords: | port throughput system dynamics model predication |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
