基于长江上游区域产业结构测度的三峡枢纽货运量预测

针对长江三峡枢纽通过能力提升的过坝运输需求预测问题,研究长江上游区域经济发展、产业结构与三峡枢纽过坝货运量的发展变化关系,构建基于长江上游区域产业结构测度的三峡枢纽过坝货运量预测模型,预计2020、2030、2040和2050年长江三峡枢纽货运量分别约为1. 61、2. 54、3. 10和3. 17亿t。研究表明:采用基于区域产业结构测度的方法预测三峡枢纽过坝货运量具有一定的参考意义;同时,发现长江三峡枢纽过坝货运量约在2040年左右将进入平稳发展阶段,该结论有待进一步探讨。

Prediction of Three Gorges ship lock freight volume based on regional industrial structure measurement in upper reaches of the Yangtze River

Aiming at the demand forecasting for the dam-crossing transportation in improving the capacity of the Three Gorges Project of the Yangtze River,we study the relationship between the regional economic development in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River,industrial structure and the development and change of the dam-crossing freight volume of the Three Gorges Project,and construct a forecasting model for the dam-crossing freight volume of the Three Gorges Project based on the industrial structure measurement of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.It is estimated that the freight volume of the Three Gorges Project in 2020,2030,2040 and 2050 will be about 161 million tons,254 million tons,310 million tons and 317 million tons respectively.The study shows that it is reasonable to use the method based on the regional industrial structure measurement to predict the freight volume of the Three Gorges Project.At the same time,the conclusion is drawn that the freight volume of the Three Gorges Project of the Yangtze River will enter a stable development stage around 2040,which needs further discussion.