基于灰色关联分析和综合评价法的港口与产业发展关系研究*

日本濑户内海地区港口和城市发展对日本经济发展作用巨大,是港城协调发展的典型,值得关注和研究。为探究该地区港口与产业发展间的关系,以港口吞吐量和集装箱吞吐量表示地区港口发展状况,以从业人数和产业总产值表示地区产业发展状况,首先基于灰色关联分析法对各县港口与产业发展间的关系进行比较分析,总结归纳发展对策,为辽宁沿海经济带的港口与产业发展提供借鉴。然后,建立兼顾均衡性与功能性的综合评价模型,确定影响濑户内海地区产业发展水平的主要港口指标为港口吞吐量。最后,将其与其它评价模型进行比较,结果表明构建的综合评价模型与现实更吻合,能够更准确地对整个濑户内海地区的港口与产业发展关系进行综合评价研究。

On relationship between port and industry based on grey relational analysis and comprehensive evaluation model

The development of the ports and cities in the Seto sea area has a great effect on the economic development of Japan. It is a typical case of harmonized development between the port and the city and is worthy of studying. To explore the relationship of port and the industry, cargo throughput and container throughput are used to represent the port development level. GDP and the number of employees are used to represent the industrial development level. Firstly, grey relational analysis method is used to calculate the correlation between ports and industries, and the grey correlations of each county are compared and the developing strategies of the Seto sea area are summarized. The results can bring an enlightenment to the development of the coastal economic zone of Liaoning province. Then, a comprehensive evaluation model is proposed, with both functionality and balance taken into account. So the main port indicator that has a great influence on the development of industries in the Seto sea area can be determined. It is cargo output. Lastly, results of the proposed model and the usually used models are compared. It shows that the model proposed is more realistic, and it can evaluate the relationship between ports and industries in the Seto sea area more accurately.