基于组合模型的天津港吞吐量预测

根据天津港货物吞吐量的历史数据,分别建立有关该港吞吐量的回归预测模型、Logistic生长曲线模型以及组合模型。通过比较3种模型的平均相对误差,可以证明组合模型的平均相对误差最小。运用组合模型预测港口吞吐量可以降低误差,提高预测精度。

Throughput forecast of Tianjin port based on combined model

According to the historical data of Tianjin port cargo throughput,some prediction models of cargo throughput in this port are established by means of regression prediction model,logistic model and combined model.Comparing the mean relative errors among the three models,it is shown that the smallest mean relative error of the combined model is the least.So,by the combined forecasting method for port's throughput prediction,we can decrease the error and improve the forecasting accuracy.