| 宁波-舟山港集装箱吞吐量的SD 建模预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 宁顺理,张亦飞,毛翰宣.宁波-舟山港集装箱吞吐量的SD 建模预测[J].水运工程,2011(4):58-62. |
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| 作者姓名： | 宁顺理 张亦飞 毛翰宣 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家海洋局第二海洋研究所,浙江杭州,310012 |
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| 摘 要： | 港口集装箱吞吐量预测问题具有多因素非线性相互作用构成的高阶次、复杂时变系统特征。基于该特征,引进系统动力学建模法建立了宁波-舟山港集装箱吞吐量模型,利用环境、经济、进出口贸易、港口及集疏运5个子系统的非线性相互作用,反映多种不确定因素对港口集装箱吞吐量的影响。应用该模型预测了宁波-舟山港2010—2020年集装箱吞吐量,取得了较好的结果。
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| 关 键 词： | 宁波-舟山港 集装箱吞吐量 系统动力学 预测 |
System-dynamics model on prediction of container throughput of Ningbo-Zhoushan port |
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| NING Shun-li,ZHANG Yi-fei,MAO Han-xuan.System-dynamics model on prediction of container throughput of Ningbo-Zhoushan port[J].Port & Waterway Engineering,2011(4):58-62. |
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| Authors: | NING Shun-li ZHANG Yi-fei MAO Han-xuan |
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| Institution: | NING Shun-li,ZHANG Yi-fei,MAO Han-xuan(The Second Institute of Oceanography,State Oceanic Administration,Hangzhou 310012,China) |
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| Abstract: | Predicting of port container throughput is characterized by a series of nonlinear factors' interaction,which form a high-order,complicated time-varying system.In view of the thought mentioned above,a container throughput predicting method based on SD was proposed.In the model,five subsystems,i.e.,environment system,economy system,harbor system,import and export trade system and the collecting & distributing system were included to consider the nonlinear interactions among relative factors.Using this model,t... |
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| Keywords: | Ningbo-Zhoushan port container throughput system dynamics(SD) prediction |
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