| 港口吞吐量增长率对吞吐量预测的影响与实证分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱晖,封学军,冯向波.港口吞吐量增长率对吞吐量预测的影响与实证分析[J].水运工程,2006(11):4-7. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱晖 封学军 冯向波 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 河海大学交通学院,江苏,南京,210098
2. 河海大学物流工程研究所,江苏,南京,210098 |
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| 摘 要： | 目前对港口吞吐量的预测方法例如时间序列法、因果关系分析法、概率预测技术等都是基于已有吞吐量数据进行预测,对吞吐量的增长率规律考虑较少,因此往往难以估计误差上下限。文章通过增长率的发展规律对港口吞吐量预测进行估计,并针对鹿特丹港进行实证比较。
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| 关 键 词： | 吞吐量 三次曲线回归模型 增长率回归模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-4972（2006）11-0004-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-06-30 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年6月30日 |
Influence of Port Throughput Increase Rate on Port Throughput Prediction |
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| ZHU hui,FENG Xue-jun,FENG Xiang-bo.Influence of Port Throughput Increase Rate on Port Throughput Prediction[J].Port & Waterway Engineering,2006(11):4-7. |
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| Authors: | ZHU hui FENG Xue-jun FENG Xiang-bo |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Traffic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 2. Transportation and Logistics Engineering Institute of Hohai Uriiversity, Nanjing 210098, China |
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| Abstract: | At present,port throughput forecast methods,such as time series analysis,causal relation analysis,probability forecasting technology,etc.,are all based on port throughput data in hand,and with few consideration of the rule of throughput increase rate.Therefore,it is difficult to estimate the error's fluctuation.This article is to estimate port throughput by analyzing the rule of increase rate,and carry out a practical comparison with that of port of Rotterdam. |
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| Keywords: | throughput cubic curve regression model increase rate regression model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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