East European shipping and economic change: a conceptual model

This paper discusses and assesses the complex process of change that has occurred in East Europe over thc last five years, and attempts to relate these changes to the shipping sector. Conventional mathematical methods are discussed as inappropriate in analysing economic, social and political developments and the technique of conceptual modelling is used, borrowed from other disciplines including those of environmental appraisal and computer sciences. The main linkages are discussed with particular reference to the Polish shipping sector, with specific analysis of the legal, managerial, spatial, economic, political, social and organizational contexts. The dominant themes of change are drawn out in an attempt to predict the impact on the Polish shipping industry in general and the three main State companies-Polish Ocean Lines (Liner Shipping); Polish Steamship Company (Bulk/Tramp) and Polish Baltic Ferries- that dominate the market.