A risk assessment model with systematical uncertainty treatment for container shipping operations |
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Authors: | Son Nguyen |
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Institution: | 1. National Centre for Ports and Shipping, Australian Maritime College, University of Tasmania , TAS 7248, Australia;2. Department of Maritime Transportation Economics, Faculty of Economics, Vietnam Maritime University , Hai Phong, Vietnam son.nguyen@utas.edu.auhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8736-8454 |
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Abstract: | ABSTRACT The substantial adverse effects of risk factors on container shipping and logistics promoted a deep integration of risk analysis into the decision-making process. This paper aims to develop a well-grounded quantitative model to operational risk in a container shipping context. Considering uncertainty as a primary component of the risk concept, methods were employed in an inter-complementary manner to enable not only a sense of foreseeability but also a deeper look into the weaknesses of the knowledge base. The intersubjectivity of the input extraction process was supported by the Evidential Reasoning (ER) algorithm. Risks are then assessed based on a Fuzzy Rules Bayesian Network (FRBN) model with a 2-level parameter structure before meaningful interpretations can be derived through a new risk mapping approach. Besides an illustrative case study, the model was tested by sensitivity analysis and an examination of multiple validity claims. |
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Keywords: | Risk assessment container shipping operation Bayesian network evidential Reasoning risk mapping |
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