超大型油船破损剩余强度可靠性分析

根据MARPOL公约,对CSR-H规定的破口范围进行概率分析。以一艘超大型油船为例,分别统计了单舱破损后各个肋位的静水弯矩概率特征和基于全球海况谱的一周波浪弯矩预报值;基于Smith法的船体梁极限弯矩计算软件,分别统计了各舱破损后极限弯矩的概率特征;采用改进一次二阶矩法,计算了各舱破损后的剩余强度可靠度。研究结果表明：机舱和首尾货舱发生破损后整船失效概率较低,中部货舱区域发生破损后整船失效概率较大,尤其在静水中垂破损工况下最危险,失效概率在10^-2量级。

Reliability analysis of residual strength of VLCC

According to MARPOL Convention, this paper analyzes the probability of the damage extent which is specified by CSR-H rules. Taking a VLCC as an example, it adds up its probability characteristics of still water bending moment of each frame for a single damaged cabin, and calculates the predicted value of wave bending moment during a week based on global sea spectrum. It also counts the probability characteristics of the ultimate bending moment for the each damaged cabin by a software for the calculation of ship beam ultimate bending moment with Smith method, and calculates the reliability of its residual strength by the improved FOSM method. The analysis results show that the failure probability for the whole tanker is small when the engine room and fore and aft cargo hold are damaged, however, it becomes bigger when the central cargo hold area is damaged. In particular, the working condition of the sagging damage in still water is most dangerous with a failure probability in order of 10^-2.