复航河流沿岸港区的吞吐量预测方法的探讨

利用多种方法对复航河流沿岸港区吞吐量发展水平作出预测。近期预测主要采用时间序列法、灰色模型法和修正指数曲线法,对各方法预测结果加权平均得出吞吐量预测值。远期预测时,利用灰色模型曲线和修正指数曲线构造复合曲线获得吞吐量预测值。最后在定性分析的基础上对吞吐量预测值作出修正。

Discussion on throughput forecasting of alongshore port area of re-navigable river

Several methods were used in this paper to forecast the alongshore port area throughput of re-navigable river.In the short-term forecasting,time series method,grey model method and modified index curve method were adpoted.Then the throughput which was the weighted mean of the three methods was obtained.In the long-term forecasting,the prediction value of the throughput was obtained using the compound curve which was constructed with grey model curve and modified index curve.Finally,the forecasting results w...