基于蒙特卡洛方法的邮船建造质量评价体系不确定性分析

为避免因建造质量问题导致的后续返工，需要在邮船建造过程中对建造质量进行控制，一套合适的建造质量评价体系可客观地反映建造质量，为质量控制提供标准。建立邮船建造质量评价体系的结构和数学模型，各部分的权重可使用层次分析法（Analytic Hierarchy Process，AHP）或德尔菲法确定，并使用蒙特卡洛方法对该体系的不确定性进行研究。结果说明该体系具有较好的稳健性。船厂在使用该体系时需要结合实际情况，尤其应注意内装质量部分的权重。

Uncertainty Analysis of Cruise Ship Construction Quality Evaluation System Based on Monte Carlo Method

In order to avoid the subsequent rework caused by the construction quality problems, it is necessary to control the construction quality during the cruise ship construction. A set of suitable construction quality evaluation system can objectively reflect the construction quality and provide the standards for the quality control. The structure and mathematical model of cruise ship construction quality evaluation system are established. The weight of each part can be determined with Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) or Delphi method, and the uncertainty of the system is studied with Monte Carlo method. The results show that the system is of good robustness. It is necessary for the shipyards to combine the actual situation when the system is used, especially to pay attention to the weight of interior finishing quality part.