Bus arrival time prediction at bus stop with multiple routes

Provision of accurate bus arrival information is vital to passengers for reducing their anxieties and waiting times at bus stop. This paper proposes models to predict bus arrival times at the same bus stop but with different routes. In the proposed models, bus running times of multiple routes are used for predicting the bus arrival time of each of these bus routes. Several methods, which include support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural network (ANN), k nearest neighbours algorithm (k-NN) and linear regression (LR), are adopted for the bus arrival time prediction. Observation surveys are conducted to collect bus running and arrival time data for validation of the proposed models. The results show that the proposed models are more accurate than the models based on the bus running times of single route. Moreover, it is found that the SVM model performs the best among the four proposed models for predicting the bus arrival times at bus stop with multiple routes.     

Separation of car-dependent commuters from normal-choice riders in mode-choice analysis

The ever-increasing use of cars is a big problem in metropolitan areas. To manage the traffic stream and alleviate air pollution, most metropolitan governments are attempting to discourage the use of cars. Nevertheless, the results have not been satisfactory. It is well known that normal-choice riders choose their travel mode based on utility, which is determined by mode-specific impedances and individual characteristics. On the other hand, this study focuses on identifying car-dependent commuters who tend to keep driving cars regardless of the circumstances they are confronted with. For this study, psychometric factors characterizing car-dependent commuters were investigated. However, the performance of the mode-choice model was not sufficiently enhanced despite incorporation of the psychometric factors. The performance improved considerably when the car-dependent commuters were excluded. Based on psychometric factors, the support vector machine successfully separated the car-dependent commuters from normal-choice riders.

基于非线性支持向量机的隧道煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测

为了有效地预测桃子垭隧道揭煤段是否存在煤与瓦斯突出危险性,文章根据煤与瓦斯突出综合假说及《防治煤与瓦斯突出规定》,确定了影响煤与瓦斯突出的9个关键因素。由于评价因子与突出危险程度之间存在着复杂的非线性映射关系,因此选择了非线性支持向量机(SVM)方法对隧道煤与瓦斯突出危险性进行预测研究。结合项目实际情况确定了各训练样本的具体参数,采用单项指标法、最优分类决策函数及MATLAB SVM Toolbox软件对选定的训练样本进行了煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测对比。通过N7和N8两个测点的预测结果表明,桃子垭隧道揭煤段存在煤与瓦斯突出危险性,必须做好相应的揭煤防突工作。     

高速公路挖方边坡优化设计智能方法与应用

文章针对高速公路挖方边坡设计的特点和要求,结合依托工程实例,阐述了基于支持向量机和粒子群算法的智能方法在高速公路挖方边坡优化设计中的具体应用,为高速公路挖方边坡优化设计提供参考。     

基于SVM的隧道衬砌空洞填充物雷达图像识别研究北大核心CSCD

衬砌背后空洞及其填充物对隧道结构安全具有重要影响,开展空洞探测识别对于结构安全评估和病害处置具有重要意义。首先采用室内试验和FDTD正演模拟相结合的方法,获得了空洞内填充空气、水、干砂、湿砂条件下的雷达图谱数据,并对不同填充物波形规律进行对比分析;然后,基于支持向量机算法对波形特征进行提取和分类识别,建立了一种空洞填充物的人工智能辨识方法。研究结果表明,采用傅里叶变换前的平均值、方差、平均绝对离差和傅里叶变换后的最大幅度值max(fft(X))四个统计量作为支持向量机的识别特征,可以有效区分出衬砌背后填充物的六种类型;当采取单一倾向数据时,识别准确率较好,六种物质二分类问题准确率均可以达到90%以上。     

基于相关向量机的TBM掘进速度预测模型

TBM具有安全性强、施工效率高等优点,在隧道施工尤其是长距离隧道施工中得到广泛应用.TBM掘进速度受多个因素影响,各因素本身除了具有较强的不确定性以外,还存在着复杂的关联关系,难以建立精准的速度预测模型.文章提出一种基于相关向量机的TBM掘进速度预测模型,该模型通过对样本的学习,可以建立各因素与掘进速度的非线性映射关系...     

基于支持向量机的隧道衬砌空洞机器识别方法

探地雷达是检测隧道衬砌空洞最为有效的方法之一,但检测数据的解析始终是限制其广泛应用的关键。基于支持向量机的基本理论,文章建立了一套隧道衬砌空洞探地雷达图像的机器识别方法,该方法包括图像预处理、特征提取和支持向量机识别三个步骤。首先,探地雷达图像需经过零时修正、滤波、偏移、增益等预处理以提高信噪比;其次,对图像的时域信号进行分段,在分段信号上提取方差、标准绝对偏差和四阶矩三个统计量作为图像特征;最后,利用已知数据对支持向量机模型进行训练,并用数值模拟和模型试验数据对训练好的支持向量机模型进行测试。结果表明,该方法不仅能够准确识别隧道衬砌和围岩内的空洞,还可以对空洞埋深及横向分布范围做出较准确的判断。     

某大跨度隧道支护破坏原因分析

文章针对某采用双侧壁导洞法施工的大跨隧道在导洞施工过程中的临时支护破坏现象,结合实际的净空收敛监控数据对支护内力进行了反分析,重点就支护破坏形成原因进行了分析。分析结果表明:当导洞下台阶开挖时,导洞内壁会产生较大的水平变形,且后续导洞开挖对先开挖侧导洞临时支护变形影响较大;下台阶位置处临时支护以承受弯曲应力为主,受力状态较为不利,易因弯曲应力过大而导致拉裂破坏;先行开挖侧导洞临时支护在后开挖侧导洞施工的反复影响下,无论是轴向应变还是弯曲应变均明显高于后开挖侧导洞,破坏程度因此也更为严重。     

沉降速率法在软基沉降分析中的应用

文章结合国内沿海某机场飞行区扩建项目软基处理工程实例,对比分析了双曲线法、三点法、Asaoka法和沉降速率法的主固结沉降量推算结果,指出了沉降速率法的优势,并应用沉降速率法准确的进行了沉降预测和卸载时间预测。     

云南省民航客运发展预测

民航运输是云南省在进行综合交通运输建设的重点之一,也是该省在未来\"十四五\"(2021-2025年)和\"十五五\"(2026-2030年)规划期间的研究热点。本文以云南省为研究范围,以省内民航客运为研究对象,选取省内主要的社会经济因素为影响因子,运用主成分分析法(PCA)、反向传播神经网络算法(BP神经网络算法)和回归分析法,构建了省内民航客运的预测模型,得出省内各主要机场在\"十四五\"末和\"十五五\"末的预计旅客吞吐量,对省政府在进行机场改扩建上有一定的指导意义。     

基于AIGA-WLSSVM的埋地管道腐蚀速率预测方法

为了降低埋地管道腐蚀影响因素之间的复杂相关性,提高腐蚀预测精度,文中提出一种基于自适应免疫遗传算法-加权最小二乘支持向量机(AIGA-WLSSVM)的埋地管道腐蚀速率预测建模方法,并采用AIGA优化模型参数,进一步提高模型的学习能力和稳定性。最后通过实例分析验证了AIGA-WLSSVM建模方法在埋地管道腐蚀速率预测中的可行性和有效性,为埋地管道的检修与更换提供参考。     

International experience with speed limits during and prior to the energy crisis of 1973–4

This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN) based method for estimating route travel times between individual locations in an urban traffic network. Fast and accurate estimation of route travel times is required by the vehicle routing and scheduling process involved in many fleet vehicle operation systems such as dial‐a‐ride paratransit, school bus, and private delivery services. The methodology developed in this paper assumes that route travel times are time‐dependent and stochastic and their means and standard deviations need to be estimated. Three feed‐forward neural networks are developed to model the travel time behaviour during different time periods of the day‐the AM peak, the PM peak, and the off‐peak. These models are subsequently trained and tested using data simulated on the road network for the City of Edmonton, Alberta. A comparison of the ANN model with a traditional distance‐based model and a shortest path algorithm is then presented. The practical implication of the ANN method is subsequently demonstrated within a dial‐a‐ride paratransit vehicle routing and scheduling problem. The computational results show that the ANN‐based route travel time estimation model is appropriate, with respect to accuracy and speed, for use in real applications.     

基于DEA法的大城市快速路网综合评价研究

文章从定量和定性两个角度,建立了快速路网运行效率的综合评价指标体系,并利用DEA方法建立快速路网综合评价模型,通过实例对城市快速路网的运行效率进行有效性评价分析。结果表明,该方法具有较强的可操作性和实用性。