Meta-analysis of public transport demand

The present study uses meta-regression in order to explain the wide variation in elasticity estimates obtained in previous demand studies, and provide summaries of several bus demand elasticities.One important finding as to the price elasticity is that the often cited rule of thumb of −0.3 holds good if quality of service represented by vehicle-kilometres is treated as an exogenous variable, but not when it is treated as endogenous.Based on the results it is recommended that demand models should include car ownership, price of petrol, own price, income and some measure of service among the explanatory variables and that the service variable should be treated as endogenous.In previous meta-studies in this field focus has been on own price elasticity only while this study also includes elasticities with respect to, level of service, income, price of petrol and car ownership. The short run for the US are found to be −0.59, 1.05, −0.62, 0.4 and −1.48 respectively.     

National policy towards cars: Singapore

Singapore has experienced rapid growth in car ownership, and private transport accounts for just under half of motorized trips in Singapore. Yet only since 1970 have determined efforts been made to curtail this increase. Simultaneously with this growth, Singapore's land‐use planners had called for the diversion of population growth into outlying residential estates while maintaining the central area's importance as an employment centre. The resulting anticipated concentration of commuter movement suggested a need for controls to restrain car ownership, reduce central‐area congestion and divert road users on to public transport. The policies followed are described. Those against ownership have included heavy road taxes and registration fees, with a system of discounts on the latter to discourage new purchasers except when replacing scrapped cars. Policies against car use include fuel taxes and the Area Licensing Scheme in the city centre, while parking space is also closely regulated. The measures adopted imply a goal of efficiency in promoting Singapore's planning objectives rather than environmental, safety or equity considerations, although the first two of these have lately received much more attention than formerly. The policies’ effect has been a temporary reversal in the growth of car ownership, but this growth has since resumed and recent further fee increases suggest a panic reaction rather than a coordinated strategy. Such coordination appears at present to be hampered by the fragmented administration of matters relating to transport. Other measures relating to car ownership and use in Singapore are also described.     

Structural equation modeling for national travel demand: an examination of the relationships between communication modes

This paper examines the relationships among different transportation modes, and between transportation and telecommunications, by applying the structural equation modeling (SEM) technique. For this purpose, we collected and compiled time series data on national travel demand, and socioeconomic and telecommunications conditions in Taiwan, and built national travel demand models using SEM. The estimation results show that the relationship between telecommunications and transportation demand (either car ownership or public transportation) is more complementary than substitutional. Moreover, car ownership is a type of inelastic necessity good, and its relationship with public transportation is more substitutional than complementary. Finally, among the three public transportation modes – rail, bus and domestic air – it is found that air is weakest in terms of competitive power. From the viewpoint of long-term forecasting trends, the bus holds its competitive power in comparison with other public transportation modes and would not be replaced in the future.     

The effect of income on car ownership: evidence of asymmetry

This paper examines the effect of income on car ownership, and specifically the question of hysteresis or asymmetry. Although there is little doubt that rising income leads to higher car ownership, less is understood about the effect of falling income. Traditional demand modelling is based on the implicit assumption that demand responds symmetrically to rising and falling income. The object of this study is to test this assumption statistically. Using a dynamic econometric model relating household car ownership to income, the number of adults and children in the household, car prices and lagged car ownership, income decomposition techniques are employed to separately estimate elasticities with respect to rising and falling income. The equality of these elasticities – no hysteresis – is tested statistically against the inequality – hysteresis – hypothesis. Various functional specifications are tested in order to assure the robustness of the results to assumptions concerning functional form. The estimation is based on cohort data constructed from 1970 to 1995 UK Family Expenditure Surveys, and a pseudo-panel methodology is employed. The results indicate that car ownership responds more strongly to rising than to falling income – there is a ‘stickiness’ in the downward direction. In addition, there is evidence that the income elasticity is not constant, but instead declines with increasing car ownership.     

From e-bike to car: A study on factors influencing motorization of e-bike users across China

Household car ownership has risen dramatically in China over the past decade. At the same time a disruptive transportation technology emerged, the electric bike (e-bike). Most studies investigating motorization in China focus on macro-level economic indicators like GDP, with few focusing on household, city-level, environmental, or geographic indicators, and none in the context of high e-bike ownership. This study examines household vehicle purchase decisions across 59 cities in China with broad geographic, environmental, and socio-economic characteristics. We focus on a subset of households who own e-bikes and rely on a telephone survey from an industry customer database. From these responses, we estimate two three-level hierarchical choice models to assess attributes that contribute to (1) recent car purchases and (2) the intention to buy a car in the near future. The results show that the models are dominated by household characteristics including household income, household size, household vehicle ownership, number of licensed drivers and duration of car ownership. Some geographic, environmental and socio-economic factors have significant influences on car purchase decisions. Only two city-level transportation variable have an effect – higher taxi density and higher bus density reducing car purchase. Cold weather, population density gross domestic product per capita positively influence car purchase, while urbanization rate reduces car purchase. Because of supply heterogeneity in the data set, described by publicly available urban transportation data, this is the first study that can include geographic and urban infrastructure differences that influence purchase choice and suggests potential region-specific policy approaches to managing car purchase may be necessary.     

(Unintended) Transport impacts of an energy-environment policy: The case of CNG conversion of vehicles in Dhaka

Motor vehicles are one of the major sources of air pollution in Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. The government took various policies to convert the petroleum vehicles on road to run on compressed natural gas (CNG), which allows both air quality improvements and energy security benefits. One of the market friendly policies to encourage the fuel switch was to increase the price differential between CNG and petrol and diesel. This has allowed a wide-scale adoption of CNG as the fuel of choice. However, several years into the policy, there is now a widespread belief among the policymakers that the CNG conversion may have increased car ownership and car travel due to their lower running costs, resulting in more congestion and a reversal of the strategy is on the cards. It is therefore important to test the hypothesis whether CNG conversion had genuinely increased car ownership and car travel in Dhaka city. This paper presents the results of a questionnaire survey and an econometric intervention analysis to understand the impact of CNG conversion on car ownership and car travel in Dhaka. Attention is also given to disentangle the self-selection and price-induced travel effects of CNG conversion. Results show that ownership did not increase, but travel of on-road vehicles increased due to the CNG policy. However, additional congestion costs are still around one half of the health benefits brought about by the policy.     

Investigation and analysis of evidence of asymmetric churn in travel demand models

There is a large amount of research work that has been devoted to the understanding of travel behaviour and for the prediction of travel demand and its management. Different types of data including stated preference and revealed preference, as well as different modelling approaches have been used to predict this. Essential to most travel demand forecasting models are the concepts of utility maximisation and equilibrium, although there have been alternative approaches for modelling travel behaviour. In this paper, the concept of asymmetric churn is discussed. That is travel behaviour should be considered as a two way process which changes over time. For example over time some travellers change their mode of travel from car to bus, but more travellers change their mode from bus to car. These changes are not equal and result in a net change in aggregate travel behaviour. Transport planners often aim at producing this effect in the opposite direction. It is important therefore to recognise the existence of churns in travel behaviour and to attempt to develop appropriate policies to target different groups of travellers with the relevant transport policies in order to improve the transport system. A data set collected from a recent large survey, which was carried out in Edinburgh is investigated to analyse the variations in departure time choice behaviour. The paper reports on the results of the investigation.     

A repeated cross-sectional evaluation of car ownership

This paper studies changes in the relationship between household car ownership and income by household type. Ordered response probit models of car ownership are estimated for a sample of households repeatedly at six time points to track the evolution of income elasticities of car ownership over time. Elasticities of car ownership are found to change over time, questioning the existence of a unique equilibrium point between demand and supply that is implicitly assumed in traditional cross-sectional discrete choice car ownership models. Moreover, different household types and households that underwent household type transitions showed differing patterns of change in elasticities. Observed trends in car ownership and income clearly show behavioral asymmetry where the elasticity of procuring an additional car is greater than that of disposing a car. This too shows the inadequacy of traditional cross-sectional models of car ownership which tend to predict symmetry in behavior. The study suggests the importance of incorporating dynamic trends into the forecasting process, which can be accomplished through the use of longitudinal data.     

Changing household car ownership level and life cycle events: an action in anticipation or an action on occurrence

This paper analyzes households’ decision to change their car ownership level in response to actions/decisions regarding mobility issues and other household events. Following recent literature on the importance of critical events for mobility decisions, it focuses on the relationship between specific events (e.g. childbirth and buying an extra car), rather than trying to explain the status of car ownership from a set of stationary explanatory variables. In particular, it is hypothesized that changes in household car ownership level take place in response to stressors, resulting from changed household needs or aspirations. The study includes a broad range of events. Apart from changes in work status, employer and residential location, it analyzes demographic events such as household formation and childbirth. Also, it scrutinizes the temporal sequence in which chains of related events are most likely to occur. To this end, data from a retrospective survey that records respondents’ car ownership status, as well as residential and household situation over the past 20 years are used. A panel analysis has been carried out to disentangle typical relationships. The results suggest that strong and simultaneous relationships exist between car ownership changes and household formation and dissolution processes. Childbirth and residential relocation invoke car ownership changes. Changes are also made in anticipation of future events such as employer change and childbirth. Childbirth is associated with increasing the number of cars, whereas the effect of employer change goes the opposite way. Job change increases the probability of car ownership change in the following year.     

Estimating the demand for urban bus travel

The disadvantages of conventional transportation study models, in particular their large data requirements and their weaknesses in dealing with changes in trip generation rates have led to a need for a simple model that can quickly and at low cost examine alternative public transport strategies.This paper investigates simple economic models of bus demand, examines alternative variables that can be used and discusses some alternative model forms. It demonstrates the results of a model using data from twelve urban bus operators in Britain and compares the results with those from other types of study. The model utilises fare and service quality elasticities to explain the decline in passengers on urban bus services, and derives an average elasticity with respect to fare changes of –0.31 and with respect to service quality changes of +0.62. It is estimated that fare rises accounted for 13% of the 43% decline in passengers over the last fifteen years, vehicle mileage reductions for 14.3% and that only 15.7% was due to such factors as rising car ownership which are often given as the cause of declining bus patronage.The results, by showing that passengers are far more sensitive to changes in service than they are to fare rises, are a useful guide to the broader public transport policy issues, and the paper concludes that the model does provide a useful method of forecasting public transport demand at a strategic level. Further work is needed, however, to establish more accurate forecasts for different types of passenger and studies are now being undertaken to establish these and to construct an operational forecasting model that can be applied with only limited data requirements     

The Contribution of Benefit-in-Kind Taxation Policy in Britain to the ‘Peak Car’ Phenomenon

Car use per person has historically grown year-on-year in Great Britain since the 1950s, with minor exceptions during fuel crises and times of economic recession. The ‘Peak Car’ hypothesis proposes that this historical trend no longer applies. The British National Travel Survey provides evidence of such an aggregate levelling off in car mileage per person since the mid-1990s, but further analysis shows that this is the result of counter trends netting out: in particular, a reduction in per capita male driving mileage being offset by a corresponding increase in female car driving mileage. A major contributory factor to the decline in male car use has been a sharp reduction in average company car mileage per person. This paper investigates this aspect in more detail. Use of company cars fell sharply in Britain from the 1990s up to the 2008 recession. Over the same period, taxation policy towards company cars became more onerous, with increasing levels of taxation on the benefit-in-kind value of the ownership of a company car and on the provision of free fuel for private use. The paper sets out the changes in taxation policy affecting company cars in the UK, and looks at the associated reductions in company car ownership (including free fuel) and patterns of use. It goes on to look in more detail at which groups of the population have kept company cars and in which parts of the country they have been most used, and how these patterns have changed over time. A preliminary investigation is also made of possible substitution effects between company car and personal car driving and between company car use and rail travel. Clearly, the role of the company car is only one of many factors that are contributing to aggregate changes in levels of car use in Great Britain, alongside demographic changes and a wide range of policy initiatives. But, company car use cannot fall below zero, so the effect of declining year-on-year company car mileage suppressing overall car traffic levels cannot continue indefinitely.     

The asymmetric income effect on household vehicle ownership in Taiwan: A threshold cointegration approach

This paper uses the asymmetric threshold cointegration test to examine the asymmetric relationship between household income and vehicle ownership in Taiwan, presenting estimated asymmetric error correction models. The empirical data include information on household income, car ownership and motorcycle ownership in different regions from 1974 to 2009. The results show that, first, motorcycle ownership is asymmetrically cointegrated with household income in each region, and car ownership is asymmetrically cointegrated with household income in all regions except Taipei city. Second, both car and motorcycle ownership levels increase faster than they decrease in the asymmetric adjustment of their long-run relationship. Third, sensitivity tests for the period 1987-2009 show that the cointegration relationship of the car ownership equations vanished. Finally, we find evidence on the effects of household income on motorcycle ownership, and the effects of income variables on car and motorcycle ownership are dissimilar. This study exhibits different results across regions. These findings may be related to the development of public transit system in each region.     

The residential parking rent price elasticity of car ownership in Japan

By using household-level micro data captured through the National Survey of Family Income and Expenditure for 2004, this study evaluates the residential parking rent price elasticity of car ownership in Japan. It analyzes the number of cars owned by a household, using various attributes including expenditure for renting a parking space on a monthly basis. The estimation results derived from the IV-ordered probit model show that the absolute value of parking rent price elasticity of car ownership is, at most, 0.48, which is fairly small (i.e., inelastic). The elasticity value varies depending on city size; for megacities, elasticity is always negative for car ownership, whereas for middle-sized or small cities, towns, and villages, elasticity is positive for one-car ownership and negative for the ownership of more than one car. Hence, when the price of parking increases, some people may switch from more than one car to one car and some people in megacities may switch from one to zero cars. Indeed, the net effect of a price increase may be that non-car ownership increases in megacities and one-car ownership increases in other cities.     

Multilevel modelling of Demand Responsive Transport (DRT) trips in Greater Manchester based on area-wide socio-economic data

Providing public transport in areas of low demand has long proved to be a challenge to policy makers and practitioners. With the developing economic, social and environmental trends, there is pressure for alternative solutions to the policy of subsidising conventional bus services. One potential solution is to adopt more flexible routes and/or timetables to better match the required demand. Therefore such ‘on demand’ or ‘Demand Responsive Transport’ (DRT) services (known as paratransit in the US) have been adopted in a number of locations. This paper seeks to explore the effects of area-wide factors on the demand of DRT by reporting the results of a statistical analysis of DRT service provision in the metropolitan region of Greater Manchester, the public transport authority of which offers one of the largest and most diverse range of DRT schemes in the UK. Specifically, this paper employs a multilevel modelling approach to investigate the impact of both DRT supply-oriented factors at the service area level and socio-economic factors at the lower super output area (LSOA) level on the average number of trips made by DRT per year. This hierarchical or ‘nested’ structure was adopted because typically the LSOAs within the same Service Area may share similar characteristics. It is found that the demand for DRT services was higher in areas with low car ownership, low population density, high proportion of white people, and high levels of social deprivation, measured in terms of income, employment, education, housing and services, health and disability, and living environment.     

Car availability change in England and Wales 1971–1981

The aggregate dynamics of car ownership have overshadowed the dynamics of car ownership and availability at the personal and household level. These dynamics have only recently been investigated in more depth. This paper contributes to this work by probing a special data source, theLongitudinal Study (LS) produced by the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys, for the changes in household car availability.The paper describes the LS and explains its special format, as a Census-based ~1% sample of the population of England and Wales.The analysis focuses on the car availability dynamics of a number of groups defined by changes in their life cycle position. Special attention is given to those households where the LS member remains a dependent child throughout the study period.The results show that all studied household types increase and decrease their car holdings, but that there are patterns in this process, which vary from group to group. In particular, the size of the previous car fleet has a different influence on the current fleet size from life cycle group to life cycle group.The paper argues in its conclusion to incorporate these differentials into the further work on car ownership and car ownership change.The work reported here was performed, while the author was a staff member of the Centre for Transport Studies, Imperial College, London.     

A dynamic analysis of household car ownership

This paper examines the determinants of household car ownership, using Irish longitudinal data for the period 1995–2001. This was a period of rapid economic and social change in Ireland, with the proportion of households with one or more cars growing from 74.6% to 80.8%. Understanding the determinants of household car ownership, a key determinant of household travel behaviour more generally, is particularly important in the context of current policy developments which seek to encourage more sustainable means of travel. In this paper, we use longitudinal data to estimate dynamic models of household car ownership, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and state dependence. We find income and previous car ownership to be the strongest determinants of differences in household car ownership, with the effect of permanent income having a stronger and more significant effect on the probability of household car ownership than current income. In addition, income elasticities differ by previous car ownership status, with income elasticities higher for those households with no car in the initial period. Other important influences include household composition (in particular, the presence of young children) and lifecycle effects, which create challenges for policymakers in seeking to change travel behaviour.     

Modelling car trip generations for UK residential developments using data from TRICS

Abstract

This paper models trip generation for a cross-section of residential developments around the UK. Consistent with recent literature, the empirical model tests whether trip making patterns for residential developments are independent of car ownership and finds that trip generation is dependent upon car ownership socio-economic factors and site-specific characteristics, in particular land-zone type (e.g. town centre, out of town, etc.). However, public transport services are not found to have a significant relationship with trip generation; consequently, a policy implication of the results is that increasing bus services to residential developments is not associated with a reduction in generated trips.     

Welfare evaluation with a road capacity constraint

Severe traffic congestion in and around many cities across the world has resulted in programmes of extensive road building and other capacity increasing projects. But traffic congestion has often not fallen in the long run and neither has journey speed increased. Demand for peak period road travel, particularly by car, has grown so strongly that increases in road capacity have been quickly matched by increased road use. This paper develops a model of a road network characterised by insatiable road passenger (car and bus) demand. The model parameters are calibrated on a typical urban road network, and a number of simulations conducted to determine social welfare after the introduction of a road capacity constraint into the optimisation process. The empirical results have an important policy implication for the evaluation of projects that increase road capacity, namely that standard methods of cost-benefit analysis may tend to overestimate the net benefits of such projects by a significant amount. Although the model is developed in the context of roads and road traffic congestion, it could also be applied to air travel.     

Analysis of vehicle ownership evolution in Montreal,Canada using pseudo panel analysis

This paper employs a pseudo-panel approach to study vehicle ownership evolution in Montreal region, Canada using cross-sectional origin–destination survey datasets of 1998, 2003 and 2008. Econometric modeling approaches that simultaneously accommodate the influence of observed and unobserved attributes on the vehicle ownership decision framework are implemented. Specifically, we estimate generalized versions of the ordered response model—including the generalized, scaled- and mixed-generalized ordered logit models. Socio-demographic variables that impact household’s decision to own multiple cars include number of full and part-time working adults, license holders, middle aged adults, retirees, male householders, and presence of children. Increased number of bus stops, longer bus and metro lengths within the household residential location buffer area decrease vehicle fleet size of households. The observed results also varied across years as manifested by the significance of the interaction terms of some of the variables with the time elapsed since 1998 variable. Moreover, variation due to unobserved factors are captured for part-time working adults, number of bus stops, and length of metro lines. In terms of the effect of location of households, we found that some neighborhoods exhibited distinct car ownership temporal dynamics over the years.