高速公路交通事故交通流辐射分析与仿真研究

针对目前我国高速公路2次事故多发的特点,从初次交通事故交通流辐射分析入手,阐述高速公路交通事故影响范围和影响时间的分析方法.建立基于TransModeler微观交通仿真平台的交通事故辐射分析模型,对其中一种紧急事件的交通流辐射范围进行实例分析.本模型可为交通事故或其他突发事件的信息发布、预警提供信息与决策支持,从而达到...     

高速公路不良天气交通事故分析

不良天气导致路面使用性能下降是引发交通事故的重要原因之一。在对不良天气导致路面抗滑性能下降的机理及路面抗滑性能、能见度对交通安全的影响等进行了分析之后,通过对我国某高速公路不良天气交通事故发生特点的调查和分析,总结了不良天气交通事故发生率和发生形态,并对我国进行不良天气道路交通事故研究和统计方法等提出了建议。     

西部地区道路交通事故灰色模型GM（1，1）研究

为掌握西部事故高发地区的交通事故特征,在2008—2012年国道314、219,叶城县、塔县地区道路交通事故统计资料基础上,运用灰色原理建立一阶单变量GM（1,1）预测模型,对上述地区道路交通事故的事故数、死亡人数进行短期预测。经精度检验,灰色预测结果精度高,且与实际相符。与传统预测方法相比较其更科学、更合理。     

交通仿真技术在交通事故研究中的应用

交通事故研究对于个人和整个社会都具有重要意义。简述了交通问题的研究方法,并以仿真软件TSIS中的FRESIM模型,分析研究高速公路中的事故黑点对交通特性及环境的影响。另外,通过采用不同的管理措施,进行事故间接经济损失分析。     

疲劳驾驶检测方法的研究进展

全世界每年因驾驶员疲劳驾驶而导致的死亡人数占交通灾难性事故的57%,故针对疲劳驾驶检测方法的研究具有现实意义.阐述了目前国内外各类疲劳驾驶检测方法的研究难点,介绍并对比分析了基于驾驶员生理参数、驾驶员行为特征、车辆行为特征的各类客观检测方法;最后对疲劳驾驶检测方法的发展趋势和应用前景进行了论述.     

应用痕迹检验鉴定交通事故的方法及优化策略探究

现代社会经济背景下,我国构筑了更完善的交通网络,人们出行时往往都会使用各类交通工具(如:汽车、电动车等),然而频频发生的交通事故问题,对人们生命财产安全构成了巨大威胁。交通事故中,当事人的利益与处理工作存在密切联系,在鉴定交通事故时引入痕迹检验,在检验现场痕迹的基础上完成事故发生过程与结果的判断,能将必要的依据供于后续处理工作使用,由此为事故当事人提供利益方面的保障。本文在简单介绍交通事故痕迹检验及方法的基础上,论述了痕迹检验在交通事故鉴定中的具体应用及优化策略,并结合案例论证了应用的可行性,以供参考。     

交通事故导致的高速公路拥堵状态判别方法

为量化分析不同交通事故条件下的高速公路路段拥堵情况,研究路段偶发性拥堵规律,本文构建了1个基于行程时间可靠性指标的高速公路路段拥堵判别方法。建立基于美国《公路通行能力手册》中行程时间可靠性分析方法的路段行程时间可靠性模型,并采用西南某高速公路路段实际数据校准模型。利用蒙特卡洛模拟方法生成交通事故场景,将交通事故解构为交通事故发生位置、交通事故严重程度、交通事故持续时间、交通事故发生频率4个特征,并以行程时间指数为路段拥堵量化指标,研究不同交通事故特征水平下的高速公路路段拥堵规律,并判别路段拥堵程度。研究结果表明：美国《公路通行能力手册》的行程时间可靠性分析方法具有可移植性,校准后可应用于国内高速公路路段;交通量接近饱和时,交通事故发生在出口匝道段的拥堵程度高于基本路段与入口匝道段,单车道关闭场景下的交通事故影响远高于路肩关闭场景下的交通事故;交通量接近自由流状态时,拥堵程度对严重程度不敏感;任何交通量水平下,单车道关闭场景下的交通事故持续时间一旦超过15 min,路段拥堵程度极有可能剧增。本文构建的路段拥堵判别方法,可以在精细化探究偶发性交通事故拥堵规律的同时划分路段拥堵等级,为相关部...     

山区高速公路隧道交通异常事件预警、检测与管理系统设计

分析了山区高速公路隧道交通的特点,给出了山区高速公路隧道交通异常事件的分类,提出了隧道交通异常事件预警、检测与管理系统设计方案,旨在降低山区高速公路隧道交通异常事件发生机率和破坏性.通过分析该系统的功能要求,进而建立了系统的框架结构和系统功能模块,讨论了各功能模块的实施策略,最后对系统监控管理模式进行了方案比选.     

基于状态观测器的城市快速路交通事故识别

针对城市快速路网中交通事故频发的现象,为及时准确地对事故进行识别,提出一种基于宏观交通流模型的状态观测器估计算法.根据利用交通仿真软件Paramics的实验数据,并结合元胞传输模型(CTM)理论分析事故发生前后,事故路段及其上下游路段的交通流密度分布特征.同时基于路网的交通流模型构建了城市快速路事故的状态观测器估计模型,模型通过估计密度的变化规律,并结合交通状态分布特征来对事故进行识别.以京通快速路为例,通过对观测器估计误差进行计算,得出了实验路段平均百分比误差(MPE)的均值为11.56%,模型估计精度为88.44%.该方法能较为准确的对事故进行识别,为快速路中的交通事故识别提供有效的参考.      

基于异常声音的隧道交通事故检测方法

针对公路隧道内交通事故的动态感知问题,在传统检测方法的基础上引入声学检测理论与方法,研究基于异常声音检测的隧道交通事故智能检测方法。通过分析短时能量（short term energy,STE）和梅尔倒谱系数（Mel-scale frequency cepstral coefficients,MFCC）检测方法在事故段特征表征以及精度干扰方面的缺陷,提出1种改进的融合特征MFCCE研究隧道环境下的交通事故检测。提取STE和MFCC特征并使用主成分分析（principal component analysis,PCA）进行特征融合得到新的融合特征MFCCE。以真实行车事故数据为基础,构建包含刹车与碰撞声的2段隧道噪声实验样本数据,分别对应早高峰时段（07:00—08:00）及平峰时段（12:00—13:00）的行车条件对隧道内的事故环境进行模拟分析,利用端点检测对所提方法进行验证并与其余2种方法进行对比分析。使用Pearson简单相关系数法作为最终的评价方法,通过该方法计算得到的相关系数r对比三种检测结果与原始样本的正相关相性。实验结果表明：STE在平峰及早高峰时段的相关系数分别为0.9...     

高速公路浓雾监测预警系统

为研究浓雾对高速公路运营的影响,通过建设高速公路环境气象监测站以获取与浓雾发生密切相关的气象要素和能见度实测值,并结合高速公路沿线历史浓雾个例研究形成浓雾的环流形势特征和局地监测站气象要素演变与能见度值变化规律和特征,由此建成了高速公路浓雾监测预警系统。系统通过多种通讯传输和显示手段,将自动监测站的实况和预报中心制作的浓雾预警、预报结论传送至公路运营指挥中心,供采取决策措施时应用。该系统目前已由无锡段扩展到常州至苏州段,在试验应用期,沪宁高速公路在试验路段未发生因浓雾而造成的重大交通事故。     

我国道路交通事故统计指标体系问题探讨

道路交通事故统计是一项基础性工作.道路交通事故统计指标是道路系统采集交通事故信息的依据,它对一系列道路安全工作的合理进行起着决定性作用.为此,针对我国道路交通事故统计指标体系中存在的统计指标数据的遗漏、统计指标口径不一致、道路交通事故严重程度的量化及交叉口、路段事故的鉴定、事故形态等问题进行了探讨.     

基于交通冲突技术的非机动车交通安全研究

为了提高城市道路交通安全性能,减少交通事故的发生,应该客观地对城市道的交通安全状况做出相应的评价,提出整改方案,提高道路的安全性能和运行效率。在分析非机动车事故的基础上,结合交通冲突技术,详细分析了道路上非机动车冲突的各种类型。研究了采用层次分析和模糊综合评价对道路非机动车安全评价的方法。提出了一种简便易行的模糊综合评价方法。结合具体事例,对方法的适用性和有效性进行了验证。     

日本交通安全对策的借鉴与启示

尽管日本的机动车保有量和交通事故数量高于我国,但日本交通事故死亡人数远远低于我国。论文在综合介绍日本道路交通安全对策的基础上,将交通事故发生数量和交通事故造成的死亡数量与日本的乘用车保有量进行回归分析,并以虚拟变量的形式考虑了交通安全相关对策对交通事故量和死亡人数的影响。从分析结果可以看出,交通事故的发生量和死亡人数与乘用车的保有量有很大相关性,但是交通安全的相关对策对交通事故的降低和死亡人数的减少有重大影响,这对我国交通安全管理措施的制定和完善提供了积极的借鉴和启示。     

International analysis on social and personal determinants of traffic violations and accidents employing logistic regression with elastic net regularization

While the number of road fatalities is declining in developed countries, it is still increasing globally, especially in middle-and low-income countries. In addition to the driver's individual awareness and attitude toward traffic safety, various factors such as the development of road infrastructure and the legal system may have a significant influence on the occurrence of traffic accidents. Thus, it is essential to consider these factors to enhance traffic safety and achieve Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Targets of 3.6.In this study, we developed an Elastic Net Regression model to evaluate the factors that influence an individual's traffic violations and accidents based on an international questionnaire on traffic safety attitude, country fact survey data on traffic regulations, and other statistical databases. As a result, it was revealed that: i) In addition to country-level factors, the individual's attributes and attitudes toward traffic safety have an influence on the experience of traffic violations and accidents. and ii) While the same variables regarding individual attributes and attitudes are selected for both traffic violations and accidents, the selected variables relating to country factors differ between violations and accidents.     

道路交通事故分析发展研究

近些年,我国交通事故量一直居高不下,而事故发生时车辆运行速度是分析事故原因、认定事故责任的重要内容,涉及保险理赔、法院审判等各个环节。目前分析事故原因,进行事故再现的主要途径是委托具有相关资质的事故鉴定机构进行速度重建,使用的方法主要有基于经验公式的事故重建、基于视频图像技术的事故重建、基于车载记录数据的事故重建和基于模拟软件的事故重建。文章主要介绍了交通事故分析的基本方法和发展方向。     

基于分形理论的交通事故分析

以某市交通事故统计资料为例,首先采用功率谱分析方法论证了分形理论用于交通事故分析的可行性,计算结果表明在统计意义上,该市交通事故时间序列具有自仿射性。接着利用分形的自相似性与标度不变性将内区间的分形特性进行延拓,并由此构造了具有外推功能的分形插值算法,实现交通事故预测。该算法利用内区间的迭代函数系和吸引子由特定初始点进行搜索,通过迭代使得到的点集与吸引子的均方偏差最小,从而获得需要外推点的函数值作为预测值。最后对交通事故时间序列进行R/S分析,进一步验证了预测结果的合理性,结果表明该市未来几年交通事故仍有增长趋势,应继续加强交通管理。     

Education influence in traffic safety: A case study in Vietnam

It is well known that traffic accidents are of high importance to the public health spectrum around the world. Moreover, in developing countries such as Vietnam, the mortality rate from road traffic accidents is rather high in comparison with other Southeast Asian countries. Not only do the majority of the people killed and seriously injured significantly affect the quality of life of the citizens, but traffic accidents also negatively impact a nation's economic and social development. Statistics show that far more people are injured or die in traffic accidents than are afflicted by any of the most serious diseases. The very high occurrence of traffic accidents in Vietnam has become one of the country's major social issues. The importance of human factors in transport policy discussion is growing. There is a realization that policy options that appear beneficial in principle have to be checked for their feasibility of implementation. Understanding and describing driver behavior become a challenge when one tries to identify driver errors in determining accident/conflict causal factors and countermeasures.In recent years, having understood the serious effects of traffic accidents on society at large, scientific researchers, traffic engineers and policy makers in Vietnam have developed many projects and conducted research in the field of traffic safety. The human factor is also considered to be the central element in the whole system. The final goal is to organize a traffic environment that is convenient and safe for road users.This article explains the application of the risk analysis approach in evaluating influences of education and enforcement in traffic safety.     

An analysis of alcohol and drug intake in forensic autopsy cases of traffic fatalities

The numbers of traffic accidents and its associated mortalities are decreasing every year in Japan. However, there continue to be cases of deaths and injuries caused by malicious driving including drunk driving. The forensic autopsy of traffic accident victims is important to determine the cause of death as well as the responsibility of traffic accidents. In this study, we investigated the cases of forensic autopsies related to traffic accidents, reported between 2013 and 2017, at the Department of Legal Medicine of Tokyo Women's Medical University. In this period, 22 autopsies were performed for traffic accidents; however, only 6 of them were associated with alcohol consumption. Most traffic accidents occurred during the night, and in one case, the victim was found lying on the road. Furthermore, there were 4 cases in which drugs in the blood or urine of the victim were detected; however, the actual relationship with the cause of death and traffic accident was not identified. It was also found necessary to take measures against pedestrian drinking. Moreover, only a few drugs led to a decrease in driving ability, highlighting the necessity of further data is necessary to provide insights into the type of drug consumed and the cause of accident.     

Education influence in traffic safety: A case study in Vietnam

It is well known that traffic accidents are of high importance to the public health spectrum around the world. Moreover, in developing countries such as Vietnam, the mortality rate from road traffic accidents is rather high in comparison with other Southeast Asian countries. Not only do the majority of the people killed and seriously injured significantly affect the quality of life of the citizens, but traffic accidents also negatively impact a nation's economic and social development. Statistics show that far more people are injured or die in traffic accidents than are afflicted by any of the most serious diseases. The very high occurrence of traffic accidents in Vietnam has become one of the country's major social issues. The importance of human factors in transport policy discussion is growing. There is a realization that policy options that appear beneficial in principle have to be checked for their feasibility of implementation. Understanding and describing driver behavior become a challenge when one tries to identify driver errors in determining accident/conflict causal factors and countermeasures.In recent years, having understood the serious effects of traffic accidents on society at large, scientific researchers, traffic engineers and policy makers in Vietnam have developed many projects and conducted research in the field of traffic safety. The human factor is also considered to be the central element in the whole system. The final goal is to organize a traffic environment that is convenient and safe for road users.This article explains the application of the risk analysis approach in evaluating influences of education and enforcement in traffic safety.