中邮分家:邮政专营将瓦解?

国务院:拆分邮政局和中邮集团 据统计,目前几大跨国快递巨头在中国国际快递市场的份额已经达到80%.根据中国入世的承诺,2005年12月11日将允许外资在中国独资经营物流快递行业.目前,快件业务已放开,报刊的发行也开始放开.     

The role of accident exposure in transport system safety evaluations I: Intersection and link site exposure

Realistic predictions of the likely safety performance of advanced transport systems will need to draw on the knowledge accumulated from a large number of safety evaluations which have already been undertaken for existing transport systems. In particular, safety evaluations of future technologies must avoid the methodological pitfalls experienced in extensively researched areas, such as road safety, if such evaluations are to be meaningful. This paper reviews the use of exposure for a broad range of road safety studies, and concludes that unsatisfactory treatment of exposure is a common failing in past evaluations of the effectiveness of road accident countermeasures. Whilst a broad range of safety analyses is discussed, the use of exposure in site safety studies is emphasized. A follow-up paper will extend the discussion to other aspects of accident exposure including exposure measures for large groups of transport system users.     

The missing link: bicycle infrastructure networks and ridership in 74 US cities

Cities promote strong bicycle networks to support and encourage bicycle commuting. However, the application of network science to bicycle facilities is not very well studied. Previous work has found relationships between the amount of bicycle infrastructure in a city and aggregate bicycle ridership, and between microscopic network structure and individual tripmaking patterns. This study fills the missing link between these two bodies of literature by developing a standard methodology for measuring bicycle facility network quality at the macroscopic level and testing its association with bicycle commuting. Bicycle infrastructure maps were collected for 74 Unites States cities and systematically analyzed to evaluate their network structure. Linear regression models revealed that connectivity and directness are important factors in predicting bicycle commuting after controlling for demographic variables and the size of the city. These findings provide a framework for transportation planners and policymakers to evaluate their local bicycle facility networks and set regional priorities that support nonmotorized travel behavior, and for continued research on the structure and quality of bicycle infrastructure and behavior.     

The role of accident exposure in transport system safety evaluations II: Group exposure and induced exposure

Part I of this paper has argued that any meaningful evaluation of transport system safety must include a consideration of the exposure to accidents, and has demonstrated the use and limitations of several measures of exposure at intersections and along links of the network. To complement this treatment of site exposure, this part of the paper will describe the use of group exposure measures in the assessment of risks incurred by people within particular population groupings. The use of induced exposure measures is also briefly reviewed.     

Travel demand in the US urban areas: A system dynamic panel data approach

Using panel data from 85 urban areas over a 20-year period and applying a system panel data approach, this paper examines the relationship between travel demand in terms of per-capita VMT and urban spatial characteristics. Regression results show that road density and urban spatial size have positive and statistically significant effects on travel demand in the US urban areas. Urban population density and urban congestion have negative and statistically significant effects on travel demand.     

Telecommunications and travel demand and supply: Aggregate structural equation models for the US

Disaggregate studies of the impacts of telecommunications applications (e.g. telecommuting) on travel have generally found a net substitution effect. However, such studies have all been short-term and small-scale, and there is reason to believe that when more indirect and longer-term effects are accounted for, complementarity is the likely outcome. At least two aggregate studies have focused on the relationships between telecommunications and travel from economic perspectives (consumer and industry). However, both use the monetary value of consumption or transactions rather than actual activity measures (e.g. miles, number of calls), and neither fully explains the direct and indirect causal relationships between the two. The purpose of this study is to develop a conceptual model in a comprehensive framework, considering causal relationships among travel, telecommunications, land use, economic activity, and socio-demographics, and to explore the aggregate relationships between telecommunications and travel, using structural equation modeling of national time series data spanning 1950–2000 in the US. In this paper we focus on number of telephone calls as the measure of telecommunications, and passenger vehicle–miles traveled as the measure of transportation. Future research will investigate additional measures of these two constructs. Our empirical results strongly support the hypothesis that telecommunications and travel are complementary. That is, as telecommunications demand increases, travel demand increases, and vice versa. These results offer a more realistic picture to policy makers and transportation planners than has been available till now, and suggest useful directions for them to develop transportation or telecommunications strategies designed to reduce traffic congestion, air pollution, and energy consumption.     

Fuel saving and ridesharing in the US: Motivations,limitations, and opportunities

Ridesharing can reduce the fuel consumed in noncommercial passenger highway vehicles by grouping individuals into fewer vehicles and reducing the number of miles that vehicles must travel. We estimate the potential fuel savings that could result from an increase in ridesharing in the US. If no additional travel is required to pick up passengers, adding one additional passenger for every 100 vehicles would reduce annual fuel consumption by 0.80–0.82 billion gallons of gasoline per year; if one passenger were added in every 10 vehicles, the potential savings would be 7.54–7.74 billion gallons per year. However, ridesharing may require extra travel to pick up additional passengers, which can reduce and possibly eliminate potential fuel savings. The tradeoff between saving fuel and spending time to pick up additional passengers is investigated, finding that, on average, ridesharing may not be attractive to travelers, but can be made more attractive by increasing per-vehicle-trip costs such as parking and tolls.     

The use of patent analysis in assessing ITS innovations: US,Europe and Japan

A wealth of research on ITS has been carried out for the past two decades. In view of the rapid technological development and innovations occurring in ITS, the ITS stakeholders need to be aware of the usefulness and availability of patents associated with ITS technology. Among the national and international reviews which have been made available in journals of record and freely available public sources, little use has been made of patent information in assessing ITS innovations. Therefore, the paper looks at the ITS technology developments from the international perspective through utilizing rich, reliable information provided by ITS-related invention patents in the world’s three leading patent databases (EPO, USPTO, and JPO) to provide an overall picture of ITS innovations. The research findings show that the patent analysis can provide firms involved in the ITS sector and ITS researchers with information that can assist in their strategic planning efforts.     

Measuring the potential for automobile fuel savings in the US: The impact of obesity

High rates of oil consumption and obesity in the US have become important socioeconomic concerns. While these concerns may seem unrelated at first, growing obesity rates in the US increase fuel consumption by adding passenger weight to vehicles. This paper estimates the additional amount of fuel (i.e., gasoline) consumed annually by noncommercial passenger highway vehicles in the US due to passenger overweight and obesity. The mathematical model presented in this paper estimates that as many as one billion additional gallons of gasoline are consumed each year due to overweight and obesity in the US, accounting for up to 0.8% of the fuel consumed by these vehicles annually. This additional fuel consumption causes carbon dioxide emissions of up to 20 billion pounds or more, accounting for up to 0.5% of the annual carbon dioxide emissions in the transportation sector.     

The 55mph speed limit on US roads: comments on Godwin and Kulash's analysis

There is probably no way to evaluate the impact of the 55 mph limit in 1974 objectively—the necessary data were never collected. Godwin and Kulash assume a current saving of 3000 lives per year. This number is not the objective result of some explicit procedure, but rather the judgement of two conscientious experts; it is not subject to replication by other experts. Furthermore, the quality of their estimate is limited by the quality of the historical studies they are using for input: those studies relied on ‘best guesses’ because they did not have the necessary basic data. No amount of heroic effort by Godwin and Kulash can overcome these inherent deficiencies.

It is almost as difficult to quantify the benefits of the 55 mph limit today. The regression results reported above find no statistically discernible relation between average speed and the fatality rate, though they do show a significant relationship between speed‐variance and the fatality rate. Given this result, we want to know the relationship between the 55 mph limit and speed variance. There is weak evidence that this critical relationship is negative—raising the speed limit a small amount might actually decrease the dispersion of highway speeds.

Whatever the benefits of the 55 limit, its costs are important. On the rural interstate highways it costs about 250 years of extra driving time to save one life. And the policing resources spent on enforcing the 55 mph limit would save more lives if they were allocated to other highway safety measures.     

Extracting accurate location information from a highly inaccurate traffic accident dataset: A methodology based on a string matching technique

The objective of this research was to develop a model for validating traffic accident locations that would be applicable worldwide, regardless of linguistic or cultural differences. In order to achieve this, a Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) dataset was used, the OpenStreetMap (OSM) project. To test the developed model, a total of 8550 accidents with fatal or non-fatal injuries that occurred in the City of Zagreb from 2010 to 2014 were evaluated. Traffic accident data was collected using the pen-and-paper method while the traffic accident locations were determined using Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers embedded within police vehicles. This form of data entry invariably introduces errors in both geometric and contextual attributes. To fully counteract these errors, the developed model consists of two key concepts: the Jaro–Winkler string matching technique and the Inverse Distance Weighting method. Over 66% of traffic accident locations were validated, which is an increase of 15% when compared to the classical approach. The model outlined in this paper shows a significant improvement in estimating the correct location of traffic accidents. This in turn results in a drastic decrease in resources needed to estimate the quality of accident locations.     

Intent to purchase a plug-in electric vehicle: A survey of early impressions in large US cites

This paper examines consumer stated intent to purchase plug-in electric vehicles and assesses the factors that increase or decrease interest. We surveyed adult drivers in large US cities in early fall 2011, before vehicle manufacturers and dealers began marketing campaigns. The survey responses thus document early impressions of this transport technology. We find that, given current battery technology and public perceptions, overall stated intent to purchase or lease electric vehicles is low. Interest in plug-in hybrid technology is somewhat greater than interest in all-electric technology. Consumers who express early interest in adopting electric vehicles are typically highly educated, previous owners of conventional hybrids, environmentally sensitive, and concerned about dependence on foreign oil. Enhanced fuel economy, the primary tangible advantage of plug-in technology, is recognized as favorable by respondents but fails to exert a strong influence on purchasing intentions. Interest in plug-in electric vehicles is shaped primarily by consumers’ perceptions of electric vehicle disadvantages.     

Assessment of product debundling trends in the US airline industry: Customer service and public policy implications

This paper reviews product debundling trends that have occurred in the US airline industry. Multiple sources of ancillary fees related to ticketing refunds and exchanges, checked baggage, on-board pets, preferred and/or advanced seating assignments, frequent flyer ticket redemptions, and day of departure standby policies are reviewed. Despite the fact that both low cost and network carriers stress the importance of future ancillary fees in their investor reports, our assessment suggests that these fees will be more broadly adopted by low cost carriers. We anticipate that many network carriers will eliminate ancillary fees, particularly as they begin to recognize how these fees can impact other system performance objectives such as minimizing the number of misconnecting passengers. We estimate that the debundling phenomenon has diluted revenues to the US Airport and Airways Trust Fund by at least 5%.     

Cycling to work in 90 large American cities: new evidence on the role of bike paths and lanes

This article analyzes the variation in bike commuting in large American cities, with a focus on assessing the influence of bike paths and lanes, which have been the main approach to increasing cycling in the USA. To examine the role of cycling facilities, we used a newly assembled dataset on the length of bike lanes and paths in 2008 collected directly from 90 of the 100 largest U.S. cities. Pearson’s correlation, bivariate quartile analysis, and two different types of regressions were used to measure the relationship between cycling levels and bikeways, as well as other explanatory and control variables. Ordinary Least Squares and Binary Logit Proportions regressions confirm that cities with a greater supply of bike paths and lanes have significantly higher bike commute rates—even when controlling for land use, climate, socioeconomic factors, gasoline prices, public transport supply, and cycling safety. Standard tests indicate that the models are a good fit, with R ² ranging between 0.60 and 0.65. Computed coefficients have the expected signs for all variables in the various regression models, but not all are statistically significant. Estimated elasticities indicate that both off-street paths and on-street lanes have a similar positive association with bike commute rates in U.S. cities. Our results are consistent with previous research on the importance of separate cycling facilities and provide additional information about the potentially different role of paths vs. lanes. Our analysis also revealed that cities with safer cycling, lower auto ownership, more students, less sprawl, and higher gasoline prices had more cycling to work. By comparison, annual precipitation, the number of cold and hot days, and public transport supply were not statistically significant predictors of bike commuting in large cities.     

The inconvenient truth about improving vehicle fuel efficiency: A multi-attributes analysis of the technology efficient frontier of the US automobile industry

Vehicle fuel efficiency has taken on more economic and environmental significance due to the rise in gasoline prices in 2007/2008. We examine adoption of fuel efficiency technologies by the US automobile industry between 1985 and 2002 and consider the environmental implications. The technology efficient frontier between vehicle weight and fuel efficiency of the US automobile fleet did not move outward significantly for an extended period in the 1980s and 1990s indicating a lack of company- or industry-wide adoption of new fuel efficiency technologies. While the firm with inferior technology capability did push its efficient frontier outward to close the technology gap, the two leading firms’ efficient frontiers first showed signs of possible regression in the early 1990s, and did not move outward significantly until the mid 1990s. Several managerial and policy options are examined for improving vehicle fuel efficiency.     

The evolution,usage and trip patterns of taxis & ridesourcing services: evidence from 2001, 2009 & 2017 US National Household Travel Survey

Given the rapid adoption of ridesourcing services (RS), it is critical for transportation planners and policymakers to understand their impacts and keep policies up to date. This study contributes to the literature by using representative samples captured in the 2001, 2009 and 2017 National Household Travel Surveys to explore how taxis and ridesourcing (T/R) services have evolved and shaped people’s travel behavior pre- and post-disruption at the US national level. It characterizes and visualizes the asymmetries in demand spatially and temporally for T/R trips, showing that ridesourcing has greatly increased T/R trips from flexible and optional activity locations to home, which vary by times of day. It also characterizes tours involving T/R services, showing that while simple optional tours (such as home–recreation–home) represent the largest share of tours involving T/R, the fastest growth has been in simple mandatory tours (such as home–work–home). Tours involving T/R grew from 0.4% of all tours in 2009 to 1% of all tours in 2017, mostly within densely populated and transit-oriented regions. Although less than 1% of T/R trips involved a direct transfer to or from transit, one-third of all tours containing T/R also included transit. However, at the same time, 40% of T/R-containing tours also involved auto trip(s). Overall, this study reveals the complex relationships among their underlying sociodemographic characteristics, RS adoption and usage behavior, and daily tour patterns.