The effects of motivational factors on car use: a multidisciplinary modelling approach

Current transport models usually do not take motivational factors into account, and if they do, it is only implicitly. This paper presents a modelling approach aimed at explicitly examining the effects of motivational factors on present and future car use in the Netherlands. A car-use forecasting model for the years 2010 and 2020 was constructed on the basis of (i) a multinominal regression analysis, which revealed the importance of a motivational variable (viz., problem awareness) in explaining current car-use behaviour separate from socio-demographic and socio-economic variables, and (ii) a population model constructed to forecast the size and composition of the Dutch population. The results show that car use could be better explained by taking motivational factors explicitly into account, and that the level of car use forecast might change significantly if changes in motivations are assumed. The question on how motivational factors could be incorporated into current (Dutch) national transport models was also addressed.     

Access to railway stations and its potential in increasing rail use

The propensity to travel by rail, and not, for example by car, can be considered to be a factor of the rail service offered, the access to it and the characteristics of the population served. Efforts to increase rail use usually focus on the rail service itself while the accessibility of the rail network receives less attention. In this context, the paper has two broad aims. First, to evaluate how important the ‘access-to-the-station’ part of a rail journey is to passengers in their overall satisfaction with the rail journey and second, to investigate the balance between characteristics of the service, the access to it and the population served in determining rail use in different parts of the rail network. The analysis is carried out for the Netherlands. To achieve the first aim, we use the Dutch Railways customer satisfaction survey and apply principal component analysis and derived importance techniques to assess the relative importance of accessibility in determining the overall satisfaction with the rail journey. For the second aim, we use regression analysis to explain, at the Dutch postcode level, the propensity to use rail. We find that satisfaction with the level and quality of the access to the station is an important dimension of the rail journey which influences the overall satisfaction from that journey and that the quality and level of accessibility is an important element in explaining rail use. The conclusion reached is that in many parts of the rail network improving and expanding access services to the railway station can substitute for improving and expanding the services provided on the rail network and that it is probably more cost efficient when the aim is to increase rail use. These parts of the network are mainly in the periphery where the current level of rail service is relatively low.     

Travel patterns in Dutch metropolitan cities: The importance of external trips

Using a variety of data sources, decentralisation of population and employment in four Dutch urban areas (Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague and Utrecht) over the last 20 years, is analysed. It is found that suburbanisation, plus an ever growing car share, has increased the number of external journeys related to the metropolitan cities enormously. With the use of the 1982 National Travel Survey, current travel patterns in and around the metropolitan cities are studied: the importance of external trips for urban transport planning shows clearly. They account for about half the number of city related car trips, and for nearly three quarters of the total vehicle kilometres of travel within the city.(requests for reprints)     

The treatment of traffic in the Dutch environmental outlooks: the role of science in policy making and policy evaluation

The Dutch National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection publishes Environmental Outlooks in which 25‐year projections are made. These Outlooks quantifying the environmental problems, form the scientific basis for Dutch environmental policy. Traffic and transport is one of the main sectors causing environmental problems. The emissions and energy use of all relevant categories (road traffic, non‐road traffic) are based on model simulations with models. This paper describes the main models used.

If present policy is implemented only a minority of the environmental targets will be met.

If a sustainable transport system for the Netherlands means a large reducton in CO₂ emissions and energy use after 2010 a stronger emphasis on both technical and non‐technical measures (such as land‐use planning combined with public transport improvements) for the period until 2010 is needed than proposed in the Second Transport Structure Plan, unless a sustainable energy source becomes available.     

Promoting bike-and-ride: The Dutch experience

The number of policy initiatives to promote the use of bike-and-ride, or the combined use of bicycle and public transport for one trip, has grown considerably over the past decade as part of the search for more sustainable transport solutions. This paper discusses the experiences with, and impacts of, such initiatives in the Netherlands. The Dutch measures to promote bicycle use in access trips have been generally successful. A country-wide program to upgrade regular and secure bicycle parking at train stations has led to an increase in user satisfaction and a growth in bicycles parked at stations. Smaller programs to stimulate the combined use of bike-and-bus have resulted in an increase in bicycle use, bus use, and share of infrequent bus passengers. Bicycle lockers at bus stops are hardly used by bus passengers, due in part to the dominance of students among bus users as well as the relatively high price of lockers in comparison to the value of bicycles used for access trips. Measures to promote the use of the bicycle in egress trips have met with more varying results. Projects to introduce leasing bicycles for egress trips have failed to attract passengers, for both train and bus services. In contrast, the introduction of flexible rental bicycles at train stations has resulted in a small reduction in car use, growth in train trips, and growth in bicycle use for non-recurrent trips. The Dutch experiences suggest some lessons for promoting bike-and-ride in countries and cities with a less well-developed bicycle infrastructure.     

A causal analysis of car ownership and transit use

The causal structure underlying household mobility is examined in this study using a sample obtained from the Dutch National Mobility Panel survey. The results indicate that car ownership is strongly associated with mode use, but that it has no influence on weekly person trip generation by household members. Characteristics of mode use are examined through a causal analysis of changes in car ownership, number of drivers, number of car trips, and number of transit trips. It is shown that observed changes in mode use cannot be adequately explained by assuming that a change in transit use influences car use. The finding suggests that the increase in car use, which is a consequence of increasing car ownership, may not be suppressed by improving public transit.     

Modeling railway disruption lengths with Copula Bayesian Networks

Decreasing the uncertainty in the lengths of railway disruptions is a major help to disruption management. To assist the Dutch Operational Control Center Rail (OCCR) during disruptions, we propose the Copula Bayesian Network method to construct a disruption length prediction model. Computational efficiency and fast inference features make the method attractive for the OCCR’s real-time decision making environment. The method considers the factors influencing the length of a disruption and models the dependence between them to produce a prediction. As an illustration, a model for track circuit (TC) disruptions in the Dutch railway network is presented in this paper. Factors influencing the TC disruption length are considered and a disruption length model is constructed. We show that the resulting model’s prediction power is sound and discuss its real-life use and challenges to be tackled in practice.     

Land use around suburban transit stations

Land use change in some form is cited by both supporters and critics of rapid transit deployment. This paper examines and categorizes land use around twenty stations located in suburban Washington, D.C. and San Francisco/Oakland through the use of aerial photographs and field investigations. As a case study of local economic development, it documents the land use pattern associated with two modern heavy rail, rapid transit networks — BART and METRO.Both BART and METRO impact land use around suburban stations. The primary contributors to station area development are residential and commercial developers in addition to the transportation providers themselves. The trend toward more intense development away from the regional CBD toward suburban station areas indicates a wave of influence moving into the hinterland via transit lines. While trends of land use are apparent, individual station areas seem to be dictated by local conditions such as markets, land use restrictions, accessibility, population, and physical geography.     

Shifting from car to active transport: A systematic review of the effectiveness of interventions

IntroductionA promising way to stimulate physical activity is to promote the choice for active modes of transport (walking and cycling). Over the past years, several interventions and policies have been implemented to stimulate this mode shift. However, information concerning the effectiveness of these interventions and policies is still limited. The aim of the present study was to systematically review the effectiveness of interventions designed to stimulate a shift from car use to cycling or walking and to obtain insight into the intervention tools that have been used to promote and/or implement these interventions.MethodsFive databases were searched and articles published in English, Dutch, German, Danish, Norwegian and Swedish were included. Only studies that focussed on a mode shift from car use towards active transport in a general adult population, which were published in peer reviewed journals and which investigated effectiveness were included. Intervention tools used were categorized by using the model of Hoogerwerf & Herweijer, as either legal, economic (subsidy, reward system, penalty), communicative (written materials, behavioural tools) and physical tools (providing bicycles, providing better bicycle facilities at work, adjustment of the environment).ResultsNineteen studies met our inclusion criteria. Studies included described work-place-based interventions, architectural and urbanistic adjustments, population-wide interventions, and bicycle-renting systems. Nearly all studies (except three) showed positive effects concerning a mode shift. Most of the included studies used more than one intervention tool and the tools used differed between types of interventions. However, information about the statistical significance of these results was often lacking and the study methodologies used were not of high quality.ConclusionNearly all studies showed results in a positive direction. However, the quality of the included studies was mostly low and intervention characteristics were poorly described.     

Environmental analyses of land transportation systems in The Netherlands

Environmental analyses of the impact of transportation systems on the environment from the cradle to the grave are rare. This article makes a comparison of various Dutch passenger transportation systems by studying their complete life-cycle energy use. Moreover, systems are compared according to their use of space, costs and travel time. Although the results indicate that no one transportation system out performs others in all of the characteristics, in a multi-criteria analysis of four aspects, the train and bicycle emerge as superior options. This holds regardless of the travel distance considered. Interestingly, the train and bicycle are complementary systems, that together operate within a comprehensive distance range.     

Ranking the substantive problems in the Dutch Cost–Benefit Analysis practice

This paper investigates the perceptions of key participants in the Dutch Cost–Benefit Analysis (CBA) practice regarding substantive problems when appraising spatial-infrastructure projects with CBA. Two research methods were applied. Firstly, 86 key participants in the Dutch CBA practice were interviewed in-depth in order to obtain an overview and a ranking of perceived substantive problems with CBA in the Netherlands. Secondly, the people interviewed were also asked to fill in a written questionnaire in which they were asked to rank the substantive problems once again, in order to improve the validity of the ranking; 74 of the participants completed this questionnaire. The most important conclusions of this paper are, firstly, that key participants in the Dutch CBA practice consider ‘problems with the estimation of the non-monetized project effects’ as the most important substantive problem cluster and ‘problems with monetizing project effects’ as the second most important substantive problem cluster. Secondly, key participants in the Dutch CBA practice consider the ‘problem analysis’ in a CBA to be a very important substantive problem. Thirdly, there is, in a broad sense, consensus among the different groups in the Dutch CBA practice concerning their perception of the seriousness of problem clusters and the way they rank the problem clusters. Fourthly, a large part of the substantive problems mentioned by the key participants in the Dutch CBA practice are non-specific CBA problems.     

Activity fragmentation,ICT and travel: An exploratory Path Analysis of spatiotemporal interrelationships

This paper focuses on the interrelationships between ICT, activity fragmentation and travel behaviour. The concept of fragmentation relates to how activities are spatiotemporally reorganized, by subdividing activities into smaller components that are then performed at different times and/or locations, in connection with ICT use. The association between ICT, activity fragmentation and travel relationships remains uncharted. Based on a two-day Dutch communication-activity-travel diary different associations between ICT use, paid work spatiotemporal fragmentation indicators and frequency of travel are specified and tested with Path Analysis Modelling accounting for sociodemographic and land use factors. The results demonstrate that the interrelationships between fragmentation, ICT and travel are quite complex. ICT and fragmentation apparently have a reciprocal relationship with mobile ICT use influencing the degree of spatial fragmentation whereas the usages of sedentary ICT are influenced by the degree of temporal fragmentation. Person-ICT attributes and ICT use mediate the participation in non-work activities, and can replace work and non-work travel. Fragmentation reduces work trips but at the same time restricts non-work personal travel possibilities and can reallocate time for leisure activity and travel.     

The role of individual characteristics in car ownership shortly after relationship dissolution

The dissolution of a relationship is a life event that often coincides with many other changes in life, such as a decline in income level or household size or a change in place of residence. This study aims to provide more insight into the ways in which circumstances shortly following the disruption of a relationship affect travel behaviour. Register data that combines information on the Dutch population, income and vehicle registration are used to understand how personal situations that are closely related to relationship disruption affect car ownership. The study shows that several characteristics of singles and single partners shortly after a breakup negatively affect car ownership. For instance, a relatively low income level, unemployment, living in a city or a residential move all affect car ownership negatively. This study focuses on the role of circumstances shortly after relationship disruption, demonstrating the importance of such an event.     

The simple,efficient, elegant,and effective model (SE3M) of land use and transportation

Integrated land use/transportation forecasting models add significant policy and infrastructure alternatives analysis capabilities to the urban planning process. Historically, the financial, time, and staff requirements to develop one of these models has put them beyond the reach of most small- to medium-sized urban areas. The purpose of this paper is to present the large zone economic submodel of SE³M, an integrated model – founded upon economic base theory and bid-rent theory – that is reasonably accurate, yet simpler in form, function, and implementation than competing models. The US territory of Guam is used as the case study/proof of concept implementation for this model framework. The submodel presented here was validated against a horizon year with known data for zonal level population and employment totals together with control totals for the island as a whole. The model was able – across two base years and one validation, horizon year – to locate all jobs and a high percentage of the population on each zone on the island.     

The logsum as an evaluation measure: Review of the literature and new results

The logsum is a measure of consumer surplus in the context of logit choice models. In spite of the very frequent use of logit models in transport, project assessment is only rarely done using logsums. Instead in project evaluation or appraisal, changes in transport costs and time (borrowing values of time from some source) are commonly used to get the traveller benefits. The paper contains a review of the theoretical and applied literature on the use of logsums as a measure of consumer surplus change in project appraisal and evaluation. It then goes on to describe a case study with the Dutch National Model System for transport in which the logsum method and the commonly used value of time method are compared for a specific project (high speed trains that would connect the four main cities in the Randstad: Amsterdam, The Hague, Rotterdam and Utrecht).     

Income-contingent user preferences in policy evaluation: application and discussion based on multi-agent transport simulations

Standard economic policy evaluation allows the realization of projects if the aggregated economic benefit outweighs their costs. The use of one single aggregated welfare measure for evaluating and ranking projects has often been criticized for many reasons. A major issue is that differentiated effects on individuals or subgroups of the population are not taken into consideration. This leads to the need for transport planning tools that provide additional information for politicians and decision makers. The microscopic multi-agent simulation approach presented in this paper is capable of helping to design better solutions in such situations. In particular, it is shown that the inclusion of individual income in utility calculations allows a better understanding of problems linked to public acceptance. First, individual income-contingent utility functions are estimated based on survey data in order to describe human mobility behavior. Subsequently, using the MATSim framework, the implementation is tested in a test scenario. Furthermore, and going beyond Franklin (2006), it is shown that the approach works in a large-scale real world example. Based on a hypothetical speed increase of public transit, effects on the welfare distribution of the population are discussed. It is shown that the identification of winners and losers seems to be quite robust. However, results indicate that a conversion or aggregation of individual utility changes for welfare analysis is highly dependent on the functional form of the utility functions as well as on the choice of the aggregation procedure.     

Distribution of vehicle operating costs/benefits to a rural population

Assessment of economic benefits resulting from the provision of transportation projects are standard practice. However, the procedures seldom consider detailed distribution of benefits amongst the study area population. Distribution of vehicle operating cost benefits to rural population is presented for a road sealing project.     

Why has car-fleet specific fuel consumption not shown any decrease since 1990? Quantitative analysis of Dutch passenger car-fleet specific fuel consumption

The Dutch car-fleet specific fuel consumption has not shown any decrease since 1990. The main reasons for the car-fleet specific fuel consumption no longer showing a decrease after 1990, namely, increases in vehicle weight and cylinder capacity, have been concluded from an analysis of Dutch car-fleet specific fuel consumption in the period 1980–1997. The increase in weight of the average sales-weighted new car in this period can be almost completely explained by the increase in weight of successive models (upgrading). This upgrading is partly the result of competition between car manufacturers but is also due to stricter safety requirements. However, because upgrading has been fairly extreme, the 1981 model of a car type often belonged to a different car type than the 1997 model of the same type. Upgrading is therefore a consequence, not only of the competition among car manufacturers and stricter safety requirements, but probably also of the shift in consumer demand for more expensive, larger and heavier cars. The 1998 agreement with the European car manufacturers (ACEA) and the Dutch CO₂ differentiation in car purchase taxes will probably lead to a further decrease in specific fuel consumption in the European fuel test-cycle (Eurotest) in the near future. However, real-world specific fuel consumption will decrease less because the difference between specific fuel consumption measured in the Eurotest and real-world specific fuel consumption is expected to increase as a result of the increasing use of both air conditioners and direct-injection gasoline engines.     

Towards marginal cost pricing: A comparison of alternative pricing systems

European urban areas are marred by the problems of congestion and environmental degradation due to the prevailing levels of car use. Strong arguments have thus been put forward in support of a policy based on marginal cost pricing (European Commission 1996). Such policy measures – which would force private consumers to pay for a public service that was previously provided "for free" – are, however, notoriously unpopular with the general public and hence also with their elected representatives – the politicians. There is thus an obvious tension between economic theory, which suggests that marginal cost pricing is the welfare maximising solution to urban transport problems, and practical experience, which suggests that such pricing measures are unwanted by the affected population and hence hard to implement through democratic processes. The AFFORD Project for the European Commission has aimed to investigate this paradox and its possible solutions, through a combination of economic analysis, predictive modelling, attitudinal surveys, and an assessment of fiscal and financial measures within a number of case study cities in Europe. In this paper the methodology and results obtained for the Edinburgh case study are reported in detail. The study analyses alternative road pricing instruments and compares their performance against the theoretical first best situation. It discusses the effect of coverage, location, charging mechanism and interaction with other instruments. The paper shows that limited coverage in one mode may lead to a deviation from the user pays principle in other modes, that location is as important as charge levels and that assumptions about the use of revenues are critical in determining the effect on equity and acceptability. Finally the results show that a relatively simple smart card system can come close to providing the economic first best solution, but that this result should be viewed in the context of the model assumptions.