Bus accidents,bus deregulation and London

Local bus services were deregulated in October 1986 in all areas of Britain except London. Government policy is to extend deregulation to London, though not in the current parliament. This paper analyses statistics on bus accidents from the national road accident database from 1981 to 1991 to compare results for London and the rest of Great Britain, and to consider whether deregulation has affected safety. The conclusions depend on the assumption that accident recording practice was not itself affected by deregulation.Bus accident rates are higher in London than on built-up roads elsewhere, partly apparently because of road traffic conditions in London, and partly because open-platform buses have higher accident rates involving occupants, including boarding and alighting accidents, than buses with doors.The main safety effects of deregulation operate through its effects on bus activity, though there is also some evidence that the rate per bus-kilometre of accidents involving other road users fell slightly. This may be due in part to the trend towards smaller buses associated with deregulation. Deregulation has led to a fall in bus patronage, and thus to a fall in occupant casualties; and to a rise in bus-kilometres, and thus to a rise in casualties among other road users in accidents involving buses. The number of fatal and serious casualties among other road users involved in bus accidents is larger than the number among bus occupants, so deregulation in London could lead on balance to a small rise in fatalities involving buses. On the other hand, the number of slight casualties among other road users involved in bus accidents is smaller than the number among bus occupants, so deregulation in London could lead to a fall in the number of slight casualties involving buses.Although there were fears that changes in the management of bus operations or financial pressures might lead to increased accident rates following deregulation, there no evidence in the findings to support such fears.This paper was first presented at the 3rd International Conference on Competition and Ownership in Surface Public Transport at Mississauga, Canada on 25–29 September 1993. The author is grateful to the Department of Transport for the speed and efficiency with which they provided special tabulations from the road accident database for this study.     

Evaluation of the policies in British local transport plans with regard to the promotion of rail freight

Over the last couple of decades there has been a trend in Western Europe and North America towards making the railway industry more able to compete successfully with road for freight haulage through deregulation and/or structural change. This trend has been drive, partly, by a concern to produce more commercially viable railway industries, but also by concerns to reduce the environmental impacts of road haulage through modal shift. The latter in particular has led to the development of public policies supportive of rail freight, particularly at the national or international levels. This paper reports on qualitative research that analysed public policy aimed at promoting rail freight in Britain but, unusually, the focus was on local rather than national policy. The research was an investigation of the approach of local authorities to the encouragement of rail freight as evidenced through their Local Transport Plans. The paper concludes that in Britain there has been a significant amount of local policymaking for rail freight and that although national policy matters are of overriding importance, the role of local policy is significant and can be developed further.     

Heavy goods vehicle taxation in the United Kingdom

Heavy goods vehicle taxation has been the subject of considerable debate in U.K. over the past 15 years. There have been a number of attempts to relate the taxes paid by heavy goods vehicles to the public costs incurred to provide road track for their use. This paper reviews critically the position taken in the last public account of allocation procedures and also outlines recent modifications to the approach. It is suggested that the allocation of public costs is sensitive to some of the assumptions made and that this may result in an over-estimation of the costs associated with road haulage activities. A number of comparative calculations are made using data from both 1975/76 and more recent years to examine this hypothesis.     

Harmonizing heavy goods vehicle taxes in Europe: a British view

One of the biggest unresolved problems regarding the completion of the free internal transport market within the European community is the problem of harmonization of taxation on the road haulage industry. As the highest tax country, Britain might be expected to have to reduce its level of taxes as part of any harmonization.

This paper considers the current methodology of the British Department of Transport regarding the allocation of the track and external costs of road transport, in the light of developments in methodology and experience elsewhere in Western Europe and North America. We find a number of reasons for believing that, far from overstating the marginal social cost of use of roads by the road haulage industry, the current British approach actually understates it. Thus any move towards harmonizing tax levels may reduce taxes in Britain at a time when they should be increasing.     

Decoupling of Road Freight Transport and Economic Growth Trends in the UK: An Exploratory Analysis

Abstract

Between 1997 and 2004, gross domestic product increased in real terms in the UK by one‐fifth, while the volume of road freight movement remained stable. This suggests that the long‐awaited decoupling of economic and freight transport growth has begun, possibly leading to a new era of sustainable logistics. This paper reviews previous research on the decoupling issue and recent trends in gross domestic product/freight tonne‐km elasticities in Europe and the USA. It then examines 12 possible causes of the observed decoupling in the UK using published statistics from a wide range of British and European sources. This analysis indicates that around two‐thirds of the decoupling is due to three factors whose impact can be quantified: the increased penetration of the British road haulage market by foreign operators, a decline in road transport’s share of the freight market, and real increases in road freight rates. Several other factors, most notably the relative growth of the service sector, the diminishing rate of centralization, and the off‐shoring of manufacturing, appear to be having a significant effect, though this finding cannot be measured on the basis of available statistics. The paper concludes that, while the decoupling is in the right direction from a public policy standpoint, the net environmental benefits are likely to be quite modest.     

Economic organization of intermodal transport

The paper considers in detail strategic changes occurring in the organizational context of intermodal transportation and discusses the application of economic approaches (primarily transaction-cost economics) for assessing the effectiveness of the appropriate governance structure in organizing the intermodal transport economic system. The paper reviews the developments in intermodal transportation, particularly in the context of logistics and supply chain management, and recognizes the trend for the formation of one-stop shopping megacarriers spurred by deregulation and market requirements. This culminates in the need to consider how companies should organize the economic governance of the intermodal transport system. The main governance structures include market (subcontracting) or hierarchy (internal organization). The transaction-cost economics approach is reviewed and applied at a conceptual level to provide the core basis upon which the assessment of the optimal governance structure in intermodal transport can be based. The review of the core economic principles indicates that the governance structure in intermodal transport is dependent on transaction costs, production costs and strategic considerations that a particular structure might entail and the policy implications thereof. The potential for empirical research in the application of the transaction-cost economics approach to intermodal transport is discussed and detailed direction for further empirical research is provided as well as discussion of policy implications particularly with respect to competition and antitrust.     

Economies of scale in the road haulage system: Some evidence from the Nigerian economy

Economies of scale are said to exist if the long run average costs decline as output scales increase. The traditional view on economies of scale in the road haulage industry is that costs are constant irrespective of output scales. This view is supported by a number of studies in various countries. However, some recent studies in a number of countries also suggest that scale economies exist in the road haulage industry. This paper reports the results of an empirical investigation in the Nigerian economy. Our analyses indicate that only very weak or no significant overall scale economies exist in the Nigerian trucking industry. The study also throws some light on the minimum optimum scale, and the economies of vehicle size.     

Safety outcomes of internationalization of domestic road haulage: a review of the literature

Abstract

The European Union (EU) promotes gradual lifting of restrictions on foreign hauliers involved in domestic road transport of goods (cabotage), and a major deregulation was scheduled in 2014. Due to complaints from several member states facing competition from new EU-countries with lower labour costs, this process was postponed until 2015. An important aspect related to such a deregulatory reform includes potential consequences for transport safety and accident risk factors. The main aims of the current paper are therefore to examine the potential transport safety outcomes of increasing internationalization of domestic road haulage, and to examine potential accident risk factors of foreign hauliers. This is done by reviewing the research literature. This paper shows that the heavy goods vehicle (HGV) accident risk varies with a factor of up to 10 in European countries, and that the accident risk of foreign HGVs is approximately two times higher than that of domestic HGVs in the studied European countries. The paper points to several risk factors and concludes that better data on accident risk and risk factors must be gathered in order to enable European authorities to correctly analyse and respond to this important traffic safety challenge.     

Comparison of road freight transport trends in Europe. Coupling and decoupling factors from an Input–Output structural decomposition analysis

Decoupling road freight transport from economic growth has been acknowledged by the European Union as a key means to improving sustainability. It is therefore important to identify both the coupling and decoupling drivers of road freight transport demand in order to determine possible factors that may contribute to reduce road transport in the future without curbing economic development. This research proposes an Input–Output (IO) structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to explain road freight transport in terms of a set of key factors that have strongly influenced road freight demand in recent decades in European countries—such as economic growth, economic structure and the evolution of road transport intensity (including improvements in both supply and transport systems). This methodological approach allows us to quantify and compare their contribution in different European countries to either increase or decrease road freight transport demand. The empirical basis for this analysis is a dataset of nine European countries which have IO tables and road transport data available from 2000 to 2007, comprising data on domestic production, imports and exports as well as tonne-kms for 11 types of commodity classes. The results show that, as a whole, aggregate road transport demand has grown—driven mainly by economic activity—but this growth has been strongly curbed in some countries by changes in road freight transport intensity and moderately by the dematerialization of the economy. International transport has been also proven to be a key factor driving road freight transport volumes. Moreover, the increased penetration of foreign operators in national haulage markets appears to have reinforced the final decoupling levels observed in some cases.     

Are urban bus services natural monopolies?

Although Britain's local bus services have been open to free competition for more than three years, most have continued to be operated as monopolies by the original incumbents. Some competition has occurred, but the incumbents have usually driven off entrants. This paper uses findings from case-studies of competition and from deregulation generally to consider whether monopoly operation has inherent advantages over competitive operation. If so, urban bus routes would be natural monopolies. The evidence suggests that they may be, because single-operator services are more convenient for users.     

Modal shift from road haulage to short sea shipping: a systematic literature review and research directions

ABSTRACT

Modal shift from road haulage to short sea shipping (SSS) has been advocated by authorities and researchers for more than two decades. This paper provides a review of literature on modal shift and pinpoints paths for future research on topics in six categories: (1) factors influencing SSS competitiveness, (2) the policy-oriented perspective, (3) environmental legislation, (4) SSS performance, (5) port characteristics, and (6) the multi-agent perspective. In particular, we propose first, in evaluating the performance of SSS versus road haulage in different trade corridors, three performance-related dimensions – the economic dimension (e.g. external costs), the environmental dimension, and the dimension of service quality – should be considered. Second, researchers should use rich, real-world, numerical data and operational research techniques to identify the relative importance of individual drivers and barriers for a modal shift from road haulage to SSS. Third proposed direction is related to assessing which groups of actors certain policies should target. In doing so, researchers should extend their policy-related focus beyond the European Union, which has long encompassed the major geopolitical scope of research on the modal shift. Fourth, to moderate the adverse impact of environmental legislation on SSS, strategic solutions need to be identified. Fifth, we also suggest that the influence of contingencies, particularly port strikes and cyberattacks, on SSS operations and approaches for managing them should be investigated. Sixth, the economic and financial advantages of coordination and alliance for each transport chain agent need to be evaluated.     

Transport bottlenecks and Tanzania's economic problems

Abstract

The paper discusses Tanzania's transport problems in the context of the prevailing acute economic crisis. It looks at the development of the transport system, especially the rail and road network, from the German days to the new Chinese‐built Tanzania‐Zambia Railway. The East‐West orientation of the major parallel rail lines and roads reflects the dependency of the economy on export‐import trade. A major challenge to the transport system is the haulage of agricultural products, mainly for export but also for the internal market, not to mention the haulage of imported commodities.

The provision and utilization of transport services is discussed in the context of the historical, and institutional setting of the road haulage industry, particularly its public and private sector configurations. Due to scarcity of foreign exchange, both sectors, especially the private, are starved of vehicles and spare parts.

The operation of ocean and lake shipping services and Air Tanzania are discussed. It is recommended that the latter should concentrate on essential domestic services plus some limited regional services. External financing of transport projects and its implications are also considered.

It is concluded that despite the break‐up of the East African transport system, the Tanzanian transport system, although shaky, has avoided major breakdowns and in some cases, especially in trade, has provided the foundation for at least medium‐term improvements. More attention is recommended to organizational problems of track use by freight and passenger carriers and to making the best use of existing facilities.     

Rail freight efficiency and competitiveness in Australia

In 1994/95, the Australian rail freight task was approximately 100 billion tonne kilometres (btkm). This freight task included some 37 btkm for the haulage of iron ore in Western Australia, 28 btkm for coal haulage in Queensland and New South Wales and about 16 btkm for interstate rail freight. This paper mainly concerns how improvements can be made to the efficiency and competitiveness of interstate rail freight services through the upgrading of sections of mainline track that currently have severe speed‐weight restrictions. Recent improvements in rail freight efficiency are discussed, with emphasis on two indicators: average unit revenues (cents per net tonne km), and average energy efficiency (net tonne km per MJ). Rail freight efficiency is high for the Western Australia iron‐ore operations, Queensland coal operations and Adelaide‐Perth general freight operations. However, between Australia's three largest cities of Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane, some 36% of the mainline track fails to meet basic fast freight train standards with a ruling grade of 1 in 66 and no curve radius less than 800 m. The contraints on efficient rail freight operations imposed by severe terrain, and how the effects of terrain may be reduced by improved track alignment, are discussed. Some economically warranted rail track investment measures are outlined, including those identified for a National Transport Planning Taskforce. These measures have the potential to reduce liquid fuel use by over 250 million litres a year. Factors affecting competitive neutrality between road and rail freight that are outside of the present scope of Australia's National Competition Policy are broadly considered. These factors include the extensive upgrading of the National Highway System with full Federal funding, and low levels of road cost recovery from heavy trucks operating over long distances.     

Bus rapid transit operation analysis using the Downs–Thomson paradox

The purpose of the paper is to analyze effectiveness before and after implementation of the bus rapid transit operation. The paper includes a speed analysis based on the Downs–Thomson paradox, and a reliability analysis based on variance analysis of arrival time. According to the speed analysis, some road sections are now under phase 2 in the Downs–Thomson paradox, which is a state in which the bus speeds are greater than the auto speeds. In the future, it is predicted that autos and buses will reach an equilibrium speed which is in phase 3 of the multi‐modal equilibrium theory. According to the reliability analysis of arrival time at each bus stop, in roads of median arterial bus lanes, the variance of arrival time is generally smaller than after the scheme implemented in 8 months later. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Metropolitan railways: present characteristics and future prospects

Urban bus operation in Chile is totally deregulated. This is the only example in the world where access to the urban bus transport market is totally free, and where the government does not exercise any control over the fares. This policy has been implemented progressively since 1979. Ten years later, it is possible to draw some conclusions from the experience. To summarize these conclusions, one could say that (i) the impact of deregulation has been almost exactly the opposite of what was expected: fares have risen and the diversity of services has been reduced, (ii) the reasons for this discrepancy lie less in the action of a cartel than in the specifics of urban transport supply and (iii) there is probably more to be expected from a refined deregulation policy, taking into account these specifics, than from a drive back to the traditional regulation system.     

Competition policy and the liberalisation of European aviation

The European aviation industry is undergoing a process of liberalisation. One of the important lessons of American deregulation was that the industry is not perfectly contestable. One implication of this is that actual competition on a route is important in order to be able to secure the benefits of deregulation or liberalisation. Another is that effective competition policy is important in order to prevent anti-competitive mergers or predatory behaviour. This paper reviews the merger investigations in European aviation which have accompanied the search by carriers to secure the benefits of market power, and considers the extent of route competition within the European Community and its relationship to the different route licensing policies of different national governments. The paper considers the extent of present competition on the busiest routes, and stresses the importance of cabotage rights in opening up the European market to effective competition.     

Road transport and climate change: Stepping off the greenhouse gas

Transport is Australia’s third largest and second fastest growing source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The road transport sector makes up 88% of total transport emissions and the projected emissions increase from 1990 to 2020 is 64%. Achieving prospective emission reduction targets will pose major challenges for the road transport sector. This paper investigates two targets for reducing Australian road transport greenhouse gas emissions, and what they might mean for the sector: emissions in 2020 being 20% below 2000 levels; and emissions in 2050 being 80% below 2000 levels. Six ways in which emissions might be reduced to achieve these targets are considered. The analysis suggests that major behavioural and technological changes will be required to deliver significant emission reductions, with very substantial reductions in vehicle emission intensity being absolutely vital to making major inroads in road transport GHG emissions.     

Substitution of bus for car travel in urban Britain: an economic evaluation of bus and car exhaust emission and other costs

Car exhaust emissions cause serious air pollution problems in many regions and, at a global level, contribute to climate change. Car use is also an important factor in other problems including traffic congestion, road accidents, noise pollution, community severance, and loss of countryside from road building. Forecasts of further increases in car ownership and use have prompted calls for policy-makers to encourage car users to switch to other forms of transport, particularly the bus. The effects of substituting bus for car travel in urban areas are simulated by specifying a spreadsheet model incorporating two types of car (petrol and diesel engine) and three types of bus (mini-, midi- and large bus). Six types of exhaust emission are considered for each vehicle type for the years 1992, 1995 and 1999: carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds, nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide, (small) particulate matter and carbon dioxide. The paper provides a synthesis of monetary estimates of these exhaust emission and other costs. The other costs considered are traffic congestion, fuel consumption, noise pollution, road accidents and road damage. The exhaust emission monetary cost estimates, mainly from the United States and the United Kingdom, are discussed within the context of a sensitivity analysis which allows for changes in parameters such as load factors, emission factors and the individual exhaust emission cost estimates. The simulation results show that substitution of bus for car travel generally decreases the overall costs, particularly the costs of congestion, but increases exhaust emission costs if bus load factors are insufficiently high. In order to reduce exhaust emission costs from car to bus transfer at given load factors, the most effective policy option is to encourage the reduction of particulate emissions from bus engines. In terms of the overall costs, increasing bus load factors by relatively modest amounts can lead to substantial reductions in these overall costs. These results should be regarded as illustrative rather than definitive, given the uncertainties in a number of parameter estimates and the need for further research in areas not covered by the paper.     

A proof of the relationship between optimal vehicle size,haulage length and the structure of distance-transport costs

This paper deals with two interrelated questions, namely the optimum size of a vehicle or vessel, and the structure of transport costs with respect to haulage distance. The relationship between these two questions has not been coherently dealt with previously in the literature, and the heuristic attempts at doing so have lead to both theoretical and empirical anomalies. This paper adopts an inventory optimisation approach in order to show that both of these questions can be treated in a unified manner and this allows us to show, first, that under very general conditions the optimum size of a ship increases with the haulage distance and haulage weight, and second, that the observed structure of transport costs with respect to the haulage distance and quantity is itself a result of this optimisation problem.     

A systematic analysis of multimodal transport systems with road space distribution and responsive bus service

A smart design of transport systems involves efficient use and allocation of the limited urban road capacity in the multimodal environment. This paper intends to understand the system-wide effect of dividing the road space to the private and public transport modes and how the public transport service provider responds to the space changes. To this end, the bimodal dynamic user equilibrium is formulated for separated road space. The Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) model is employed to depict the dynamics of the automobile traffic for its state-dependent feature, its inclusion of hypercongestion, and its advantage of capturing network topology. The delay of a bus trip depends on the running speed which is in turn affected by bus lane capacity and ridership. Within the proposed bimodal framework, the steady-state equilibrium traffic characteristics and the optimal bus fare and service frequency are analytically derived. The counter-intuitive properties of traffic condition, modal split, and behavior of bus operator in the hypercongestion are identified. To understand the interaction between the transport authority (for system benefit maximization) and the bus operator (for its own benefit maximization), we examine how the bus operator responds to space changes and how the system benefit is influenced with the road space allocation. With responsive bus service, the condition, under which expanding bus lane capacity is beneficial to the system as a whole, has been analytically established. Then the model is applied to the dynamic framework where the space allocation changes with varying demand and demand-responsive bus service. We compare the optimal bus services under different economic objectives, evaluate the system performance of the bimodal network, and explore the dynamic space allocation strategy for the sake of social welfare maximization.