Accessibility appraisal of land-use/transport policy strategies: More than just adding up travel-time savings

We examine the accessibility benefits associated with some land-use policy strategies for the Netherlands that anticipate on expected climate change. A disaggregate logsum accessibility measure using the Dutch national land-use/transport interaction model TIGRIS XL is used to compute changes in consumer surplus. The measure provides an elegant and convenient solution to measure the full accessibility benefits from land-use and/or transport policies, when discrete choice travel-demand models are available that already produce logsums. It accounts for both changes in generalised transport costs and changes in destination utility, and is thus capable of providing the accessibility benefits from changes in the distribution of activities, due to transport or land-use policies. The case study shows that logsum accessibility benefits from land-use policy strategies can be quite large compared to investment programmes for road and public transport infrastructure, largely due to changes in trip production and destination utility, which are not measured in the standard rule-of-half benefit measure.     

Flexible substitution patterns in models of mode and time of day choice: new evidence from the UK and the Netherlands

Modelling the temporal response of travellers to transport policy interventions has rapidly emerged as a major issue in many practical transport planning studies and is recognised to hold particular challenges. The importance of congestion and its variation over the day, together with the emergence of time-dependent road user charging as a policy tool, emphasise the need to understand whether and how travellers will change the timing of their journeys. For practical planning studies, analysts face a major issue of relating temporal changes to other behavioural changes that are likely to result from policy or exogenous changes. In particular, the relative sensitivity of time and mode switching has been difficult to resolve. This paper describes a study undertaken to determine the relative sensitivity of mode and time of day choice to changes in travel times and costs and to investigate whether evidence exists of varying magnitudes of unobservable influences in time of day switching. The study draws on data from three related stated preference studies undertaken over the past decade in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands and uses error components logit models to investigate the patterns of substitution between mode and time of day alternatives. It is concluded that the magnitude of unobserved influences on time switching depends significantly on the magnitudes of the time switches considered. With time periods of the magnitude generally represented in practical modelling, i.e. peak periods of 2–3 hours, time switching is generally more sensitive in these data than mode switching. However, the context of the modelling and the extent to which relevant variables can be measured will strongly influence these results.     

Insights on disruptions as opportunities for transport policy change

Policy change is characterised as being slow and incremental over long time periods. In discussing a radical shift to a low carbon economy, many researchers identify a need for a more significant and rapid change to transport policy and travel patterns. However, it is not clear what is meant by rapid policy change and what conditions might be needed to support its delivery.Our contention in this paper is that notions of habit and stability dominate thinking about transport trends and the policy responses to them. We limit variability in our data collection and seek to design policies and transport systems that broadly support the continuation of existing practices. This framing of the policy context limits the scale of change deemed plausible and the scope of activities and actions that could be used to effect it.This paper identifies evidence from two sources to support the contention that more radical policy change is possible. First, there is a substantial and on-going churn in household travel behaviour which, harnessed properly over the medium term, could provide the raw material for steering behaviour change. Secondly, there is a growing evidence base analysing significant events at local, regional and national level which highlight how travellers can adapt to major change to network conditions, service availability and social norms. Taken together, we contend that the population is far more adaptable to major change than the policy process currently assumes.Disruptions and the responses to them provide a window on the range of adaptations that are possible (and, given that we can actually observe people carrying them out, could be more widely acceptable) given the current configuration of the transport system. In other words, if we conceptualise the system as one in which disruptions are commonplace, then different policy choices become tractable. Policy change itself can also be seen as a positive disruption, which could open up a raft of new opportunities to align policy implementation with the capacity for change. However, when set against the current framing of stability and habit, disruption can also be a major political embarrassment. We conclude that rather than being inherently problematic, disruption are in fact an opportunity through which to construct a different approach to transport policy that might enable rather than frustrate significant, low carbon change.     

The main determinants of the demand for public transport: a comparative analysis of England and France using shrinkage estimators

This study analyses the impacts of changes in fares, service supply, income and other factors on the demand for public transport on the basis of panels of English counties and French urban areas. The analysis is based on dynamic econometric models, so that both short- and long-run elasticities are estimated. Conventional approaches (i.e. fixed- and random-effect models) rely on the hypothesis that elasticities are the same for all areas. Having shown that this hypothesis is not valid for these data sets, the heterogeneity amongst areas is accounted for using a random-coefficients approach, and Bayesian shrinkage estimators.Estimated elasticities for France and England are compared, by using a common set of variables, similar time period and a common methodology. The results show a considerable variation in elasticities among areas within each country. The major conclusion is that public transport demand is relatively sensitive to fare changes, so that policy measures aimed at fare reduction (subsidisation) can play a substantial role in encouraging the use of public transport, thus reducing the use of private cars.     

European freight transport and the environment: empirical applications and scenarios

Environmental issues have received a prominent place in transport policies of most European countries. The coordination of such policies however, is fraught with many difficulties. The increasing freight flows after the European integration are a source of concern, but have not yet led to straightforward and effective environmental strategies.The paper focuses on the Trans Alpine freight transport systems in the light of the future integration of single national transport systems into the European transport network. The environmental, social and institutional peculiarities of this ‘region’ have favoured—in the past—the development of strong nationally-oriented policies, partly in contrast with the goals promoted by the European Union. The present analysis aims to highlight opportunities, and limits inherent, in the implementation of various infrastructure projects oriented towards a drastic change of the Alpine transport systems structure. The Alpine countries, viz. Austria and Switzerland, play a central role in the promotion of environmental benign modes of transport of goods, with a clear focus on rail. The route choice and modal split of freight flows in Europe are taking place simultaneously. In this paper the results of European freight flow models (based on logit analysis and neural networks) will be presented. An important exercise is then to assess the consequences of various types of eco-taxes on road transport in Europe. In this context, several policy scenarios will be dealt with.     

Efficiency of European Funds in the Accession Countries: The Case of Transport Infrastructure Investments in Latvia

ABSTRACT

A transport initiative, like any kind of public action, has an impact on the monetary cost, time cost, efficiency and comfort of the transportation of goods and people, in particular transport infrastructure investments. All such initiatives are subject to cost benefit analyses at the national and EU level to know whether the present value of total net benefits including environmental impacts exceeds their cost. However, several important policy issues remain unresolved in standard evaluation procedures. One issue is whether the so-called direct measurement of user benefit, which consists of quantifying changes in surplus of the users of the transport system, captures all welfare generated in the economy. Another issue is how the gains (or possibly losses) of a transport initiative are distributed among regions. The aim of this article is to perform a systematic and quantitative analysis of the socio-economic and spatial impacts of alternative transport investments by carrying out scenario simulations in order to improve the understanding of the impact of transportation policies on the short- and long-term spatial development in Latvia. The general result from the scenario simulations is that rail projects seem to be more effective in terms of promoting regional economic activity than road projects.     

German transport policy after reunification

Due to the development after the reunification of Germany, the opening of Eastern Europe and the creation of the Single European Market, German transport policy is facing great challenges. We must not only cope with considerable increases in traffic but also with geographically reoriented traffic flows and structural changes. German transport policy will tackle these challenges of the future with the aid of five strategies: (a) the integration of the individual modes of transport; (b) the exploitation of the possibilities offered by modern technology; (c) investments in the construction of new traffic routes and the improvement of existing ones; (d) the consistent utilization of the forces of the market in the transport sector; (e) the protection of the environment and the enhancement of road safety. These strategies are a constituent part of an integrated overall transport concept, which will put Germany in a position to satisfy the evergrowing demands in the field of transport.     

Protection of Critical Waterborne Transport Infrastructures: An Economic Review

It is essential that transport infrastructures are protected against events which cause their failure. At an optimal level of protection, the sum of protection costs and expected residual damages following from disruptions will be minimized. In most cases however, this optimal level is not achieved because infrastructure protection is susceptible to various market and government failures. This brings us to the question who (a private or public actor) should do how much (the level of protection and intervention). This question is addressed in the present paper.

The starting point of the paper is the Directive of the European Council on the identification and designation of European Critical Infrastructures. We review the protection of critical waterborne transport infrastructures from an economic perspective. The review is based on a literature study and several interviews with Critical Infrastructure experts. For the studied infrastructures, we have identified causes and effects of their failure and examined the private–public roles in protecting them. Considering the market and government failures which occur in such configuration of roles, we propose several changes. We conclude that from a national policy perspective there are two important routes: (1) reinforcement of private sector roles among others by defining liabilities and providing information on risks and (2) strengthening of supra-national collaboration via improving and standardizing regulations, cost-sharing initiatives and penalty systems.     

The effects of motivational factors on car use: a multidisciplinary modelling approach

Current transport models usually do not take motivational factors into account, and if they do, it is only implicitly. This paper presents a modelling approach aimed at explicitly examining the effects of motivational factors on present and future car use in the Netherlands. A car-use forecasting model for the years 2010 and 2020 was constructed on the basis of (i) a multinominal regression analysis, which revealed the importance of a motivational variable (viz., problem awareness) in explaining current car-use behaviour separate from socio-demographic and socio-economic variables, and (ii) a population model constructed to forecast the size and composition of the Dutch population. The results show that car use could be better explained by taking motivational factors explicitly into account, and that the level of car use forecast might change significantly if changes in motivations are assumed. The question on how motivational factors could be incorporated into current (Dutch) national transport models was also addressed.     

Integrated land use — transport models

This paper is a review of computer models of the interrelationships between land use and transport, particularly of the long‐term effects of changes in transport costs on cities and the consequent effects on travel demand. The nature of this relationship is examined in terms of empirical evidence, and a set of criteria against which the models can be evaluated is defined. Four major types of model are examined: regression, mathematical programming, aggregate spatial interaction and individual choice. Each type is considered in terms of operational examples and the strengths and weaknesses of each approach are identified. However, it is recognized that few of the models are capable of representing the major social and technological changes that are currently influencing urban development, and that this is where emphasis should be put if this type of model is to be useful for policy‐making in the future.     

Road transport and climate change: Stepping off the greenhouse gas

Transport is Australia’s third largest and second fastest growing source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The road transport sector makes up 88% of total transport emissions and the projected emissions increase from 1990 to 2020 is 64%. Achieving prospective emission reduction targets will pose major challenges for the road transport sector. This paper investigates two targets for reducing Australian road transport greenhouse gas emissions, and what they might mean for the sector: emissions in 2020 being 20% below 2000 levels; and emissions in 2050 being 80% below 2000 levels. Six ways in which emissions might be reduced to achieve these targets are considered. The analysis suggests that major behavioural and technological changes will be required to deliver significant emission reductions, with very substantial reductions in vehicle emission intensity being absolutely vital to making major inroads in road transport GHG emissions.     

New waves in transportation in North‐Eastern Europe

North‐Eastern Europe is a peripheral area around the Baltic Sea. In some parts i.e. Scandinavia high living standards including developed transport systems exist when at the same time rapid changes in the way of living in other parts ‐ Poland, the Baltic Countries and Russia ‐ are ongoing. Transport policies in the European Union are caught between demands for improved mobility and the concern on the environmental protection. In the former socialist countries the environmental issues are subdued by the demands for efficient transport. A fixed road and rail connection between Denmark and Sweden will change the transport geography of the western part of the area. Also the integration of the Baltic States and Poland to the Union will inside a few years change the economic and by that way also transport structure. After a short presentation of the geography and history the current European transport landscape will be described and current transport policies reviewed. Then some topics on the major changes during the last decennia as well as future studies will be presented. The paper draws heavily from the research projects ‐ SAMI, START and STEMM ‐ financed by the European Commission DGVII.     

Fuel price changes and their impacts on urban transport – a literature review using bibliometric and content analysis techniques, 1972–2017

ABSTRACT

While the period of heightened oil prices in 2005–2014 has attracted considerable academic and policy attention, there is scant cross-disciplinary research considering energy price, transport and land use together. In car dependent societies many socio-economically disadvantaged areas often lack public and active transport accessibility. Emerging research focus has been placed on issues of transport equity including effects of fuel prices. We reviewed 45 years (1972–2017) of publications about fuel price impacts, transport, and urban context, drawn from Web of Science listed publications. Bibliographic citation analysis reveals eight major research clusters with a set of inter-city comparative studies at their centre. The historical evolution, geographical trends, research approaches and the key themes are revealed by context analysis. The paper highlights the need for further studies looking at energy, transport and land use interaction, and suggests a greater focus on transport equity.     

Transportation policy in the eighties

Urban transportation policy during the nineteen seventies has been characterized by attempts to deal with four major problems: 1) the minimization of environmental impacts of transport investments, 2) the alleviation of inequities in mobility, and financial burdens imposed upon some groups by earlier investments in capital intensive highway networks, 3) the accommodation of demands for public participation in transport decision-making, and 4) the precipitous rise of public transit operating costs. In this paper examples are given of policies which have been pursued in attempting to solve each of these problems. It is shown that policies designed to solve one of them have often intensified others. Thus, current policy is characterized by reliance upon very small-scale and timid plans and proposals. The eighties may see a return to large-scale and comprehensive transport plans, but these will not be exclusively physical or system plans. Rather, transportation plans in the eighties will include a balance among physical facilities, institutional arrangements, financial plans, and user incentives and disincentives. Several examples of such comprehensive policies are given in this paper.Paper prepared for presentation at the Fourth World Congress of Engineers and Architects in Tel Aviv, Israel, December, 1976.     

Transport policy in Eastern Europe a case study of Hungary

This paper analyses the development of transport policy making in Eastern Europe over the last forty years and describes the role of the CMEA in determining national developments in Poland, Romania, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Bulgaria. The USSR, Albania and Yugoslavia are excluded. The planning system as operated in the Eastern Block, is described, followed by a particular case study of Hungarian policy making with respect to the transport sector. Specific tansport issues relating to Hungary are outlined before conclusions are drawn in terms of future developments in relation with the European Community.     

Transport emissions and travel behaviour: A critical review of recent European Union and UK policy initiatives

There are clear signs of a shift in the UK transport policy in response to concerns about the environmental impacts of road transport and anxieties about the implications of the projected future growth in demand.Much of the framework of UK transport policy is now determined at the overall European Union level. To date most European legislation and policy proposals have been concerned with reducing the specific externalities associated with the transport sector, with none of the measures involved likely to have more than a marginal impact on the growth in demand. The emerging research evidence suggests however that the private costs of car use in Europe may fall substantially short of its total social costs and there is an important emerging policy debate about how this gap might be closed.The UK has introduced a policy package designed to reduce the growth of car travel and its environmental impact, within which land-use planning measures feature prominently. The land-use policies, which to some extent represent a reassertion of many traditional UK planning policies, include: an emphasis on focussing new development in urban areas, increasing residential densities, strengthening the role of existing centres and improving provision for walking and cycling.A number of factors will constrain the effectiveness of the package in practice. There are also concerns about its impact on key environmental objectives, including air quality. There are important questions too about the welfare effects of increasing densities and about the wider impacts of the package on economic efficiency.     

Speed behaviour of car drivers: A statistical analysis of acceptance of changes in speed policies in the Netherlands

Lowering the speed of car drivers will have positive impacts on environmental pollution and the number of road accidents. It is therefore a potentially interesting policy option for governments which want to reduce negative externalities of transport. In this paper, the acceptance of such policies is analysed by means of a survey questionnaire among car drivers and public transport users. First, an analysis is presented on the general speed behaviour, the behaviour on distinct road types, the acceptance of lower limits, and the acceptance and perception of electronic speed limiters. Next, a statistical analysis of subgroups is carried out. It is concluded that the speed of car drivers is, in general, not considered to be a main problematic issue by drivers and non-drivers; therefore, there is little scope for the acceptance of changes in speed policies. When speed policies are changed (lower limits), it seems to be most effective to emphasize safety aspects in order to increase the support of the public. However, psychological factors of speed behaviour may play an important role in this respect.     

A panel data switching regression model of mobility and car ownership

The objective of this paper is to present a panel data model of car ownership and mobility. Unobserved heterogeneity is controlled for by including correlated random effects in the equations describing car ownership and mobility. A mass-points approach is adopted to control for unobserved heterogeneity. The results show that decisions concerning the first car in the household are difficult to affect; a large number of households are inclined to keep one car. Second car ownership may be more sensitive to changes in the observed contributing factors. This suggests that in The Netherlands policies aimed at changing second car ownership will be more successful than those aimed at influencing decisions concerning the first car in households. A major part of the correlation between the unobservables in the car ownership and the mobility equations is attributable to random effects. The time-variant errors of the mobility equations are not significantly correlated to car ownership decisions. This implies that mobility can only be influenced to a small extent by policy makers without measures aimed at reducing (second) car ownership.     

Rescuing the captive [mode] user: an alternative approach to transport market segmentation

The prevailing approach to transport market segmentation which identifies two distinct groups, “captive” and “choice” users, has widely been used by professionals and scholars despite the ambiguity associated with these terms. Furthermore, conflicting interpretations from the point of view of decision makers and individuals may result in negative policy implications where the needs of captive users are neglected in favour of attracting new users. This study attempts to address these concerns by proposing an alternative segmentation framework that could be applied to any mode of transport, in any regional context, by users and decision makers alike to better guide the development of transport policies. Using the results of a large-scale transportation survey, a series of clustering techniques are employed to derive this alternative approach for segmenting walkers, cyclists, transit and automobile users. The main factors considered in the final clustering analysis are the level of trip satisfaction and practicality. The analysis yielded four market segments: captivity, utilitarianism, dedication and convenience. Using this theoretical framework to understand the distribution of travellers among market segments is essential in identifying distinct and appropriate policy interventions to improve trip conditions. It is hoped that the segmentation approach and policy framework proposed here will encourage a better balance between pragmatic and idealistic goals in transportation policy.     

Car ownership and public transport use: Revisiting the interaction

At the beginning of the 1980s, it seemed that a consensus was emerging among researchers that public transport service levels, fares or quality had a small but possibly important effect on car ownership, and that this should be taken into account for those purposes where car ownership forecasts are used for developing policy on public transport or roads. Somehow, the findings faded away, and had little effect on policy thinking or on analytical techniques. The results of six surveys carried out in South Yorkshire over the period 1972 to 1991, during which there were extreme changes in public transport policy, tend to support a prima facie case for reopening the question. At the household level, car ownership rates are shown to be more volatile than is often assumed, especially in multiple car households. This volatility provides a context within which the quality of public transport provision appears to influence both the level of car ownership and the relationship between changes in the level of car ownership and changes in public transport use.