Modal-split effects of climate change: The effect of low water levels on the competitive position of inland waterway transport in the river Rhine area

Future climate change is expected to affect inland waterway transport in most main natural waterways in Europe. For the river Rhine it is expected that, in summer, more and longer periods with low water levels will occur. In periods of low water levels inland waterway vessels have to reduce their load factors and, as a result, transport prices per tonne will increase. One possible consequence of these higher transport prices is a deterioration of the competitive position of inland waterway transport compared with rail and road transport, and thus a change in modal split. We study this issue using a GIS-based software model called NODUS which provides a tool for the detailed analysis of freight transportation over extensive multimodal networks. We assess the effect of low water levels on the costs of transport operations for inland waterway transport in North West Europe under several climate scenarios. It turns out, that the effect on the modal split is limited. Under the most extreme climate scenario, inland waterway transport would lose about 5.4% of the quantity that is currently being transported annually in the part of the European inland waterway transport market considered. The very dry year of 2003 can be seen as an analogue for this scenario.     

Biofuel futures in road transport – A modeling analysis for Sweden

First and second generation biofuels are among few low-carbon alternatives for road transport that currently are commercially available or in an early commercialization phase. They are thus potential options for meeting climate targets in the medium term. For the case of Sweden, we investigate cost-efficient use of biofuels in road transport under system-wide CO₂ reduction targets to 2050, and the effects of implementation of targets for an almost fossil-free road transport sector to 2030. We apply the bottom-up, optimization MARKAL_Sweden model, which covers the entire Swedish energy system including the transport sector. For CO₂ reductions of 80% to 2050 in the Swedish energy system as a whole, the results of the main scenario show an annual growth rate for road transport biofuels of about 6% from 2010 to 2050, with biofuels accounting for 78% of road transport final energy use in 2050. The preferred biofuel choices are methanol and biomethane. When introducing additional fossil fuel phase-out policies in road transport (−80% to 2030), a doubling of the growth rate to 2030 is required and system CO₂ abatement costs increases by 6% for the main scenario. Results imply that second generation biofuels, along with energy-efficient vehicle technologies such as plug-in hybrids, can be an important part of optimized system solutions meeting stringent medium-term climate targets.     

Transport deregulation and cross‐border trucking in North America

Internationally, recent years have seen a spread of deregulatory policies with respect to transport. Equally, transport movements across national boundaries have expanded as trade has grown. Despite these two quite noticeable trends comparatively little has been written on the problems that are created for cross‐border traffic as the result of differential changes in national regulatory policies. This paper is concerned with looking specifically at what has happened in the context of road freight transport movements across the U.S.‐Canadian border and the wider (especially for the formulation of a Common Transport Policy for the EEC) lessons which can be learned from it.     

Decoupling of Road Freight Transport and Economic Growth Trends in the UK: An Exploratory Analysis

Abstract

Between 1997 and 2004, gross domestic product increased in real terms in the UK by one‐fifth, while the volume of road freight movement remained stable. This suggests that the long‐awaited decoupling of economic and freight transport growth has begun, possibly leading to a new era of sustainable logistics. This paper reviews previous research on the decoupling issue and recent trends in gross domestic product/freight tonne‐km elasticities in Europe and the USA. It then examines 12 possible causes of the observed decoupling in the UK using published statistics from a wide range of British and European sources. This analysis indicates that around two‐thirds of the decoupling is due to three factors whose impact can be quantified: the increased penetration of the British road haulage market by foreign operators, a decline in road transport’s share of the freight market, and real increases in road freight rates. Several other factors, most notably the relative growth of the service sector, the diminishing rate of centralization, and the off‐shoring of manufacturing, appear to be having a significant effect, though this finding cannot be measured on the basis of available statistics. The paper concludes that, while the decoupling is in the right direction from a public policy standpoint, the net environmental benefits are likely to be quite modest.     

The History of the Transport Future—Evaluating Dutch Transport Scenarios of the Past

Abstract

This paper examines 42 business‐as‐usual (BAU) scenarios for future transport and traffic development in the Netherlands from the period 1970 to 2000. An important aspect of these scenarios is that they indicate the potential future state of the transport system if the policies in place at the time continue unchanged, thus raising issues which may require a policy response. This paper shows that in most of the important BAU transport scenario results of the past in the Netherlands, such as future car use and transport emissions, the policy makers were not misled. The prognoses for traffic congestion are an important exception as they underestimated the congestion problems that would arise. This paper shows that, based on the research it examines, BAU transport forecasting is an inaccurate practice. It is recommended that the BAU scenario designer communicates this high inaccuracy, enabling the policy maker to include the inherent future uncertainty in their decision‐making.     

Role of transport in rural development in Africa

Rural Africa is starved of transport services. The transport routes run towards the export enclaves and the coast.

The political, social and developmental rural transport benefits are discussed. Rural transport will help (i) integrate the country and ease its governance; (ii) widen markets; (iii) induce increased agricultural output, through new technologies, reduced transport costs, etc. The transport cost savings should be passed on to rural firms and producers. The paper warns against their accruing only to middlemen — agricultural parastatals inclusive, thereby stifling the benefits to production. This could happen under some forms of pan‐territorial pricing. Negative aspects of road development, e.g. the substitution of local goods by imports, increased migration and noise, are noted.

The place and role of project appraisal in rural road planning is acknowledged. The broad‐based development packages approach associated with Integrated Rural Development Projects has, despite its attractions, some pitfalls. It favours well established villages and ignores distribution benefits within villages.

Project appraisal can be used to justify socially uneconomic transport developments. However, rural road investment projects with immediate negative returns are unlikely to be funded. Given clear priorities, short of elaborate cost/benefit analysis, obvious road investments choices can be made by the local community. Greater public accountability of transport planners and peoples’ participation in determining rural transport needs and priorities is emphasized. Increased rural road maintenance especially through self‐help schemes and increased use of traditional modes of transport, e.g. walking, animal and water transport, is recommended.     

Road pricing: An international perspective

This paper reviews experience with road pricing in Europe and Asia. It considers the objectives of road pricing, and demonstrates that differences in objectives lead to differences in scheme design and performance. It reviews the criteria for design of road pricing systems, and the development of charging structures and technologies to meet those criteria. In particular it discusses the relative merits of pre-determined and congestion-dependent charging structures, and of off-vehicle and on-vehicle charging systems. It assesses the performance of road pricing systems to date, discusses objections to road pricing and demonstrates that the role of road pricing within a wider transport strategy and the use made of the revenue generated, will be important determinants of public acceptability. Finally it assesses the relative merits of alternative approaches to implementation and argues that these will need to pay as much regard to public acceptability as to technical performance.     

Future prospects for personal security in travel by public transport

This paper reports findings from a project focused on understanding the interaction between transport technologies and user needs and perceptions in supporting personal security in travel by public transport. The research engaged over 60 experts from across the UK transport sector in a combination of interviews, workshops and scenario planning activities to address a set of four application areas in relation to secure travel. These areas were information provision, travel disruption, automated transport services and flexible transport services. Four future scenario narratives (to a 2040 time horizon) were developed for each application area. A final workshop consolidated and reviewed the narrative scenarios and pulled out key themes and priority issues for policy, practice and research for the near term. Consequently a set of policy recommendations, operator and business opportunities, knowledge gaps and research priorities were identified to support and enhance provision for personal security in travel by public transport.     

Do Road Planners Produce More ‘Honest Numbers’ than Rail Planners? An Analysis of Accuracy in Road‐traffic Forecasts in Cities versus Peripheral Regions

Abstract

Based on a review of available data from a database on large‐scale transport infrastructure projects, this paper investigates the hypothesis that traffic forecasts for road links in Europe are geographically biased with underestimated traffic volumes in metropolitan areas and overestimated traffic volumes in remote regions. The present data do not support this hypothesis. Since previous studies have shown a strong tendency to overestimated forecasts of the number of passengers on new rail projects, it could be speculated that road planners are more skilful and/or honest than rail planners. However, during the period when the investigated projects were planned (up to the late 1980s), there were hardly any strong incentives for road planners to make biased forecasts in order to place their projects in a more flattering light. Future research might uncover whether the change from the ‘predict and provide’ paradigm to ‘predict and prevent’ occurring in some European countries in the 1990s has influenced the accuracy of road traffic forecasts in metropolitan areas.     

Involving citizens in sustainable development: Scenario workshop on sustainable mobility

The scenario workshop is an example of the Scandinavian tradition of citizen involvement. The method is a mix of scenario and workshop. Scenarios produced by experts (scientists) are presented to a local community in a workshop lasting two to three days during which local participants produce criticism, debate and plans for community action. The method, originally used to actively involve citizens in the development of environmentally sustainable cities in Denmark, is now in use throughout Europe, as the various EU directorates have become very aware of their usefulness. A method has now been generated at the Copenhagen Business School for the field of transport. Four transport scenarios were generated relating to post-Fordist production systems, transport and the concept of sustainable mobility. They are to be presented in a transport-intensive region of Denmark to analyse barriers against environmentally induced adjustments to the transport sector and to find new solutions to the dilemma by creating dialogue between planners, politicians and transport managers.     

Scenario construction for transport planning

This paper argues that the types of uncertainty having the most serious consequences for transport planning are not captured by existing modelling procedures, which typically rely on a limited amount of sensitivity testing of plans based on extrapolative forecasts. It recommends as an alternative scenario‐based planning, an approach which is finding increasing application in private sector policy formation. The paper summarises the origins of scenario planning and the gradual broadening in its range of application, before going on to suggest methods of scenario construction suitable for transport planning applications. It considers the arguments for and against associating probabilities with scenarios and also addresses the problems of formulating transport strategies and evaluating them within the context of a scenario‐based approach to strategy choice.     

An environmental economic analysis of the new rail link to European main port Rotterdam

After a long policy debate it has been decided to built in the near future a new rail link (Betuwe line) in the Netherlands to handle the rapidly increasing volume of goods to be transported from Rotterdam harbour to the centre of Europe. This study analyses its economic and environmental aspects and compares rail transport with road transport and transport on inland waterways. It is shown that transport by water will compete strongly with transport on the new railway and that water transport is attractive economically and environmentally.     

Effectiveness of en route traffic information in developing countries using conventional discrete choice and neural‐network models

Providing commuters with traffic information or advising them of alternative routes during traffic incidents can alleviate congestion. For decades, advanced traveler information services (ATIS) have been devised and dedicated to this role. ATIS comprises a wide variety of technologies across the world, including radio traffic information (RTI) advisory service. RTI is common in both developed and developing countries. Although extensive literature and evaluation results of ATISs and RTI are available in developed countries, little attention has been devoted to that in developing countries. This work provides a modeling platform to study drivers' response to en route traffic information provided by Radio‐Payam broadcasting service in Tehran, the capital city of the developing country of Iran. The results are compared with counterpart cases in developed countries. Past studies and this study have employed conventional discrete models for drivers' response, such as ordered logit and ordered probit. This work evaluates the accuracy level of these conventional models in comparison with a developed neural‐network (NN) model, because it has been widely proven that NN models are highly precise. It has also been found that, apart from reliability, the conventional models are within an acceptable level of prediction accuracy compared with the NN models. The results show a high degree of similarities between the case of Tehran and its counterparts in the developing countries. The results also deliver some insights on how to improve or better implement the ATIS technologies. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Introducing Willingness‐to‐pay for Noise Changes into Transport Appraisal: An Application of Benefit Transfer

Abstract

Numerous research studies have elicited willingness‐to‐pay values for transport‐related noise. However, in many industrialized countries including the UK, noise costs and benefits are still not incorporated into appraisals for most transport projects and policy changes. This paper describes the actions recently taken in the UK to address this issue, comprising: primary research based on the city of Birmingham; an international review of willingness‐to‐pay evidence; the development of values using benefit transfers over time and locations; and integration with appraisal methods. Amongst the main findings are: that the willingness‐to‐pay estimates derived for the UK are broadly comparable with those used in appraisal elsewhere in Europe; that there is a case for a lower threshold at 45 dB(A)Leq,18h rather than the more conventional 55 dB(A); and that values per dB(A) increase with the noise level above this threshold. There are significant issues over the valuation of rail versus road noise, the neglect of non‐residential noise and the valuation of high noise levels in different countries. Conclusions are drawn regarding the feasibility of noise valuation based on benefit transfers in the UK and elsewhere, and future research needs in this field are discussed.     

Efficiency of European Funds in the Accession Countries: The Case of Transport Infrastructure Investments in Latvia

ABSTRACT

A transport initiative, like any kind of public action, has an impact on the monetary cost, time cost, efficiency and comfort of the transportation of goods and people, in particular transport infrastructure investments. All such initiatives are subject to cost benefit analyses at the national and EU level to know whether the present value of total net benefits including environmental impacts exceeds their cost. However, several important policy issues remain unresolved in standard evaluation procedures. One issue is whether the so-called direct measurement of user benefit, which consists of quantifying changes in surplus of the users of the transport system, captures all welfare generated in the economy. Another issue is how the gains (or possibly losses) of a transport initiative are distributed among regions. The aim of this article is to perform a systematic and quantitative analysis of the socio-economic and spatial impacts of alternative transport investments by carrying out scenario simulations in order to improve the understanding of the impact of transportation policies on the short- and long-term spatial development in Latvia. The general result from the scenario simulations is that rail projects seem to be more effective in terms of promoting regional economic activity than road projects.     

Transport telematics in urban systems-a backcasting Delphi study

This paper includes a presentation of the results from a scenario study on transport telematics in urban passenger transport. An international Delphi panel of 100 experts from 20 countries replied to questions on the feasibility and impact of a restricted number of different technical scenarios. The results show that most experts see substantial potential for limiting certain transport problems if there is broad implementation of transport telematics as described in this study. The majority of experts favoured a scenario based on extended public transport information. In that scenario, environmental gains were in practice paid for in terms of less comfortable trips and longer travel times.     

European freight transport and the environment: empirical applications and scenarios

Environmental issues have received a prominent place in transport policies of most European countries. The coordination of such policies however, is fraught with many difficulties. The increasing freight flows after the European integration are a source of concern, but have not yet led to straightforward and effective environmental strategies.The paper focuses on the Trans Alpine freight transport systems in the light of the future integration of single national transport systems into the European transport network. The environmental, social and institutional peculiarities of this ‘region’ have favoured—in the past—the development of strong nationally-oriented policies, partly in contrast with the goals promoted by the European Union. The present analysis aims to highlight opportunities, and limits inherent, in the implementation of various infrastructure projects oriented towards a drastic change of the Alpine transport systems structure. The Alpine countries, viz. Austria and Switzerland, play a central role in the promotion of environmental benign modes of transport of goods, with a clear focus on rail. The route choice and modal split of freight flows in Europe are taking place simultaneously. In this paper the results of European freight flow models (based on logit analysis and neural networks) will be presented. An important exercise is then to assess the consequences of various types of eco-taxes on road transport in Europe. In this context, several policy scenarios will be dealt with.     

Up‐to‐the‐minute information as we drive—how it can help road users and traffic management

Road transport of today has a substantial need for a better information system. The European research programmes PROMETHEUS and DRIVE offer the prospect of new techniques and strategies. The role of information in road transport is analysed from the viewpoint of the individual drivers and from the viewpoint of the traffic manager. All necessary information must be brought together and a complex data‐bank system for road transport should be installed. As examples of advanced information systems the concepts of the ‘Wolfsburg wave’ for in‐car speed recommendation and of the LISB field experiment in route guidance in Berlin are explained.     

Optimization of a container vessel fleet and its propulsion plant to articulate sustainable intermodal chains versus road transport

The recent European regulations on emissions from heavy duty vehicles (Euro VI) along with the enforcement of ECA regulations have represented an additional challenge for the sustainability of the motorways of the sea. The main aim of this paper is to identify the optimal sizing and the most adequate propulsion plant for a fleet of feeder vessels that, by operating under motorways of the sea conditions, is able to articulate competitive intermodal chains versus the road for the door-to-door transport by ensuring the sustainability of the intermodality in the current normative framework. Thus, a mathematical model is developed to evaluate, aside from the total costs and the time invested in the transport, the environmental costs of the unimodal transport and of intermodal chains with different sizing and technologies for the vessels. The resolution of this multiobjective model was carried out with an NSGA-II algorithm in an application to a transport network between Spain and France. This application concluded that fast and small vessels with LNG propulsion plants are the most convenient to maximize the competitiveness advantage against the road alternative. Likewise, the analysis of the environmental performance of both transport systems in the application case from 2010 to 2015 shows an unfavourable environmental evolution for the intermodality.