Investor herding behaviour in globally listed shipping stocks

ABSTRACT

This study undertakes one of the first empirical attempts to investigate and contribute a set of innovative findings to investor herding behavior and herding spillover effects in globally listed shipping company stock returns. Distinguishing between OECD and Non-OECD markets, herding behavior is tested on a diversified set of shipping companies traded in international equity markets, over different business cycle phases, financial crises, and external shocks. A set of dynamic models, well established in the relevant behavioral finance literature, is implemented. Empirical evidence indicates investor herding behavior in shipping stock returns and herding spillover effects between different shipping sectors, albeit not robust in all cases. These challenging findings can have a material impact on efficient investment and financing decisions of shipping market players.     

Beta comparisons across industries—a Water transportation industry perspective

This paper undertakes a comparative analysis of the stock market perception of risk in US listed water transportation companies and seven other main sectors, air transportation; rail transportation; trucks; electricity; gas; petroleum refining; and real estate over the period July 1984-June 1995. This is done by employing the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to model the stock returns of each industry and hence compare their betas (systematic risk). Multiequation Regression Models are used for estimation. The findings suggest that the water transportation industry exhibits significantly lower market risk than the average stock and the rail transportation industry, significantly higher systematic risk than the real estate industry, while its systematic risk is insignificantly different from the rest of the industries. These results are useful to investors basing their decisions on relative market exposures to risk in different industries.     

Risk and return of U.S. water transportation stocks over time and over bull and bear market conditions

The aim of this paper is to investigate the behaviour of water transportation company stock returns in the U.S. stock exchanges from 1985 to 1994 in order to determine whether the systematic risk of this industry is different from that of the 'average' company in the market, whether it has changed over the ten year period, over bull and bear market conditions, and whether there is a firm 'size' effect in the industry. In the context of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (Capm), we find that the systematic risk of the shipping industry return is not different from that of the 'average' company. It is also found that the covariance of water transportation companies with respect to the overall stock market return did not change over the ten year period although it appears that it has changed over normal upward/downward market movements. There is also reasonable evidence that the intercept of the equation might have changed over normal upward/downward market movements. Finally, we document contradictory evidence regarding the size effect; during the period 1985-1989 we find small companies to have significantly higher returns and risk while during the period 1990-1994 medium size companies tend to have higher risk than small and large firms, which is not however compensated by higher returns.     

A cross-section analysis of stock returns: The case of shipping firms

This paper undertakes an analysis of the determinants of the cross-section of expected stock returns of 19 shipping companies listed in the US, Norway, Stockholm and London. Various factors, including company stock market beta, divided yield, and financial leverage have been identified in the finance literature as determinants of share price performance. We capitalize on these findings and add one more industry specific factor, the average age of the company's fleet, to quantitatively analyse the determinants of the performance of shipping shock returns. We use the Fama-MacBeth methodology to empirically test whether the five factors above have a significant effect on shipping stocks' performance. Our results indicate that the industry specific factor (the average age of the fleet) plus financial leverage, are significant in explaining shipping stocks' returns, wheras the stock market beta and the dividend yield are far less significant.     

Shipping and the Transfer of Technology†

This paper discusses and assesses the complex process of change that has occurred in East Europe over thc last five years, and attempts to relate these changes to the shipping sector. Conventional mathematical methods are discussed as inappropriate in analysing economic, social and political developments and the technique of conceptual modelling is used, borrowed from other disciplines including those of environmental appraisal and computer sciences. The main linkages are discussed with particular reference to the Polish shipping sector, with specific analysis of the legal, managerial, spatial, economic, political, social and organizational contexts. The dominant themes of change are drawn out in an attempt to predict the impact on the Polish shipping industry in general and the three main State companies–Polish Ocean Lines (Liner Shipping); Polish Steamship Company (Bulk/Tramp) and Polish Baltic Ferries– that dominate the market.     

Asset allocation and value at risk in shipping equity portfolios

This study employs alternative dynamic volatility models to investigate the risk and return characteristics of a carefully selected sample of shipping stocks, in order to enhance asset allocation opportunities. As private and institutional investors are in search of alternative style investments, the assessment of stock volatility is a critical issue for efficient asset allocation, dynamic portfolio management and firm valuation. The empirical findings indicate a highly volatile profile for shipping stock returns, in line with respective (tanker and dry bulk) earnings. Sectoral and company fundamentals may affect shipping stock volatility, which is found to be sensitive to asymmetric shocks. The results support high portfolio returns for shipping stock portfolios that appear to be superior to standard market benchmarks but are associated with higher risk level.     

形势依然非常严峻 《2012年第二季度中国航运景气报告》发布

航运企业经营状况恶化趋势有所放缓,但是中国航运行业总体状况恶化趋势略微加剧。7月3日,上海国际航运研究中心发布"2012年第二季度中国航运景气报告"。报告显示,2012年第二季度,     

Lead–lag relationship between new-building and second-hand ship prices

We examine lead–lag relationships between new-building and second-hand ship prices. Our analysis shows the existence of a one-directional lead–lag relationship between two ship prices. The direction of lead–lag relationship is not affected by the time evolution and age of second-hand ships, but is affected by the division of shipping sector. Particularly, directions of ship price movements in dry bulk and tanker shipping sectors are opposite. We argue that the opposite directional lead–lag relationships are caused by the difference in competition levels and the difference in the purposes of trading in the two shipping sectors.     

East European shipping and economic change: a conceptual model

This paper discusses and assesses the complex process of change that has occurred in East Europe over thc last five years, and attempts to relate these changes to the shipping sector. Conventional mathematical methods are discussed as inappropriate in analysing economic, social and political developments and the technique of conceptual modelling is used, borrowed from other disciplines including those of environmental appraisal and computer sciences. The main linkages are discussed with particular reference to the Polish shipping sector, with specific analysis of the legal, managerial, spatial, economic, political, social and organizational contexts. The dominant themes of change are drawn out in an attempt to predict the impact on the Polish shipping industry in general and the three main State companies-Polish Ocean Lines (Liner Shipping); Polish Steamship Company (Bulk/Tramp) and Polish Baltic Ferries- that dominate the market.     

Examining the influence of firm performance on business risk-taking and the mediation effect of scale of operations in the container terminal industry

Container shipping and its related service sectors help accelerate globalization of the world economy. This industry has been experiencing rapid growth, prompting container terminal operators to increase their handling capacity in response. Providing container terminal services requires substantial capital investment in physical assets such as cargo handling facilities and information systems. On the other hand, operating container terminals is a long-term investment that typically spans several business cycles. Hence prudent asset management using appropriate tools is critical for container terminal operators to sustain their businesses. Generally, due to risk-adverseness, investors are unwilling to take more risk in their investment unless they can reap a higher return. Contrary to this argument, this study finds no direct influence of better firm performance as a proxy of higher return on business risk-taking by container terminal operators. Instead, scale of operations is positively associated with business risk-taking, suggesting that container terminal operators with a larger scale of operations are willing to take more business risk.     

Risk perception affecting the performance of shipping companies: the moderating effect of China and Korea

Risks in the shipping industry have been highlighted and have attracted significant attention, especially following the bankruptcy of Hanjin in 2017. Due to the decrease in container volume, the business environment for large shipping companies in China has deteriorated. Therefore, major large shipping companies have implemented mixed ownership reform, which provides more opportunities for large Korean shipping companies to enter the Chinese shipping industry. This study first identifies risk perception, specifically focusing on the moderating effect of Chinese and Korean shipping companies, and then demonstrates the impact of these risks on shipping company performance. The results show that market, operational, and technical risks have a negative influence on Chinese shipping companies, whereas market, policy, financial, operations, and technical risks have a negative influence on Korean shipping companies. This study contributes to the fundamental understanding of the effect of risk perception on performance among shipping companies in both countries and calls for further research on risk management plans based on the risk factors identified herein. On a practical level, this study provides an important reference for operators and investors who seek to enter strategic alliances or joint venture in Chinese shipping industry.     

Barriers to energy efficiency in shipping

The shipping industry shows potential for improvements in energy efficiency. Nonetheless, shipping companies appear reluctant to adopt these seemingly cost-efficient technical and operational measures aiming at reducing energy costs. Such phenomenon is not specific to the shipping industry and is commonly referred to as the energy efficiency gap. Decades of research in other sectors have contributed to the development of taxonomy of economic, organizational and psychological barriers that determine energy efficiency gaps through the use of a variety of research frameworks. This article aims to apply this research in the shipping context through interviews and review of existing literature and applications from other industries, with the objective of providing useful insight for shipping managers. The article discusses examples of barriers that are typical to shipping and that are related to information asymmetries and power structures within organizations. Managers of shipping firms are encouraged to look through their organizations in search of principal agent problems and power structures among the possible causes for energy efficiency gaps in their companies’ operations and possibly strive towards organizational change.     

The economic impact study of maritime policy issues: application to the German case

Input-output analysis basically provides an estimation of a sector's economic impact by taking into account the indirect effects on all other sectors. For purposes of policy making, however, this may produce rather rigid and inaccurate results. This paper, therefore, introduces some extensions to the basic impact analysis. These extensions secure flexibility, completeness and accurateness of the outcomes. First, an accurate cost structure is determined in a bottom-up approach, i.e. by using data from a sample of representative companies. This allows for reliable outcomes and a flexible definition of sub-sectors. Secondly, the analysis is made in an intercountry context. Thirdly, the expenditure effects of generated income are determined by a macroeconomic module. Fourthly, company-level responses to alternative policy scenarios are investigated and translated into changing model parameters. These four basic elements are applied in a case study concerning the shipping sector of Germany. The scenarios are a continuation of the present policy, a laissez-faire policy, and two framework policies in which the government creates a favourable environment for shipping companies. For each scenario, the effects on value added, employment, tax revenues and expenditures are analysed and evaluated. This paper, thus, shows the relevance of accordingly amplified input-output analysis for policy purposes.     

从“油轮单壳改双壳”到“油轮改散货轮”

本文主要阐述了油轮改散货船在流程管理、变形控制、安全管理、质量管理、周期控制等方面的难点及防控要点。     

Cost analysis of bulk cargo containerization

ABSTRACT

Bulk cargo containerization (BCC) involves changes in the transportation mode of container shipping for cargo that uses bulk carriers without packing. This topic has recently attracted considerable attention as an alternative transportation method for container cargo. BCC is advantageous because it can address imbalances in the amount of cargo conveyed between the main and back hauls, thereby improving efficiency. A previous survey among companies involved in cargo shipping revealed that in addition to ocean freight, vanning and devanning, and customs clearance costs, consignees’ decisions were the key factor in selecting transport modes. The present study aims to clarify the cost competitiveness of container shipping and identify cost reductions that may increase the use of BCC. To quantitatively check the results of the survey employed in this study, we constructed a model based on consignees’ and container shipping companies’ costs to determine the choice of transport mode for back-haul trade, then examined the incentives for consignees and shipping companies. We found that BCC can be realized by cost reduction on the part of the consignee and profit improvement on the part of the container shipping company for some routes and goods. Although reducing the freight rate would effectively promote BCC, reducing other costs would not have the same effect.     

The economic impact study of maritime policy issues: application to the German case

Input-output analysis basically provides an estimation of a sector's economic impact by taking into account the indirect effects on all other sectors. For purposes of policy making, however, this may produce rather rigid and inaccurate results. This paper, therefore, introduces some extensions to the basic impact analysis. These extensions secure flexibility, completeness and accurateness of the outcomes. First, an accurate cost structure is determined in a bottom-up approach, i.e. by using data from a sample of representative companies. This allows for reliable outcomes and a flexible definition of sub-sectors. Secondly, the analysis is made in an intercountry context. Thirdly, the expenditure effects of generated income are determined by a macroeconomic module. Fourthly, company-level responses to alternative policy scenarios are investigated and translated into changing model parameters. These four basic elements are applied in a case study concerning the shipping sector of Germany. The scenarios are a continuation of the present policy, a laissez-faire policy, and two framework policies in which the government creates a favourable environment for shipping companies. For each scenario, the effects on value added, employment, tax revenues and expenditures are analysed and evaluated. This paper, thus, shows the relevance of accordingly amplified input-output analysis for policy purposes.     

The adaptation of the Polish shipping companies to market conditions

At the end of the eighties, fundamental changes took place in Polish shipping. Implementation of the market economy system was at first demonstrated in the introduction of the principles of self-dependence, self-government and self-financing of the shipping companies. Privatization performed a key role in the program of transformation of the centrally planned system into market oriented financially independent shipping organizations. The previous principle of the necessary participation of the home fleet in transporting domestic sea-borne trade has been mostly replaced by cross-trade. Many shipping services have left its basic ports in the country for a West European basis, securing alimentation of home and transit cargoes by feeder-service systems. Joint stock companies in shipping with substantial shares of foreign capital are welcomed, and the previously obligatory system of administrative methods of the state monopoly has been abolished. The principles of shipping policy represented in the past by Poland and also by UNCTAD in the 1960s have lost their impact and must be change and adapted to the new demands of the shipping markets.     

探讨渤海湾客滚船航行安全管理

针对我国渤海湾客滚船航运市场现状,从船舶状态、船员素质、公司管理等方面分析了存在的主要问题及安全生产隐患,并根据存在的问题,提出了工作措施与管理对策,为相关部门及公司的安全管理提供参考。     

The adaptation of the Polish shipping companies to market conditions

At the end of the eighties, fundamental changes took place in Polish shipping. Implementation of the market economy system was at first demonstrated in the introduction of the principles of self-dependence, self-government and self-financing of the shipping companies. Privatization performed a key role in the program of transformation of the centrally planned system into market oriented financially independent shipping organizations. The previous principle of the necessary participation of the home fleet in transporting domestic sea-borne trade has been mostly replaced by cross-trade. Many shipping services have left its basic ports in the country for a West European basis, securing alimentation of home and transit cargoes by feeder–service systems. Joint stock companies in shipping with substantial shares of foreign capital are welcomed, and the previously obligatory system of administrative methods of the state monopoly has been abolished. The principles of shipping policy represented in the past by Poland and also by UNCTAD in the 1960s have lost their impact and must be change and adapted to the new demands of the shipping markets.