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1.
Nearly 499,000 motor vehicle crashes involving trucks were reported across the United States in 2018, out of which 22% resulted in fatalities and injuries. Given the growing economy and demand for trucking in the future, it is crucial to identify the risk factors to understand where and why the likelihood of getting involved in a severe or moderate injury crash with a truck is higher. The focus of this research, therefore, is on developing a methodology, capturing and integrating data, exploring, and identifying risk factors associated with surrounding land use and demographic characteristics in addition to crash, driver, and on-network characteristics by modeling injury severity of crashes involving trucks. Crash data for Mecklenburg County in North Carolina from 2013 to 2017 was used to develop partial proportional odds model and identify risk factors influencing injury severity of crashes involving trucks. The findings indicate that dark lighting condition, inclement weather condition, the presence of double yellow or no-passing zone, road sections with speed limit >40 mph and curves, and driver fatigue, impairment, and inattention have a significant influence on injury severity of crashes involving trucks. These outcomes indicate the need for effective geometric design and improved visibility to reduce the injury severity of crashes involving trucks. The likelihood of a severe or moderate injury crash involving a truck is also high in areas with high employment, government, light commercial, and light industrial land uses. The findings can be used to identify potential risk areas, proactively plan and prioritize the allocation of resources to improve safety of transportation system users in these areas.  相似文献   

2.
Crash Prediction Models (CPMs) have been used elsewhere as a useful tool by road Engineers and Planners. There is however no study on the prediction of road traffic crashes on rural highways in Ghana. The main objective of the study was to develop a prediction model for road traffic crashes occurring on the rural sections of the highways in the Ashanti Region of Ghana. The model was developed for all injury crashes occurring on selected rural highways in the Region over the three (3) year period 2005–2007. Data was collected from 76 rural highway sections and each section varied between 0.8 km and 6.7 km. Data collected for each section comprised injury crash data, traffic flow and speed data, and roadway characteristics and road geometry data. The Generalised Linear Model (GLM) with Negative Binomial (NB) error structure was used to estimate the model parameters. Two types of models, the ‘core’ model which included key exposure variables only and the ‘full’ model which included a wider range of variables were developed. The results show that traffic flow, highway segment length, junction density, terrain type and presence of a village settlement within road segments were found to be statistically significant explanatory variables (p < 0.05) for crash involvement. Adding one junction to a 1 km section of road segment was found to increase injury crashes by 32.0% and sections which had a village settlement within them were found to increase injury crashes by 60.3% compared with segments with no settlements. The model explained 61.2% of the systematic variation in the data. Road and Traffic Engineers and Planners can apply the crash prediction model as a tool in safety improvement works and in the design of safer roads. It is recommended that to improve safety, highways should be designed to by-pass village settlements and that the number of junctions on a highway should be limited to carefully designed ones.  相似文献   

3.
为了探究行人事故的发生机理,分析影响行人交通安全的显著因素,收集上海市中心城区263个交通分析小区(TAZ)的行人事故、道路、人口及土地利用数据,并开展行人宏观安全研究。考虑到TAZ之间存在的空间相关性,建立考虑空间相关性的贝叶斯负二项条件自回归模型,在条件自回归模型中对比分析了5种不同的空间权重矩阵,包括0~1邻接矩阵、边界长度矩阵、分析单元中心距离倒数矩阵、事故空间中心距离倒数矩阵这4种既有矩阵,以及首次引入的宏观安全建模中的分析单元中心距离多阶矩阵。结果表明:分析单元中心距离多阶矩阵的模型拟合效果和事故预测准确度均显著优于既有的4种空间权重矩阵,证明了在宏观安全建模过程中考虑研究对象交通特征(居民步行平均出行距离等)的必要性;人口数量、主干道长度、次干道长度、路网密度等因素均与行人事故呈现显著正相关,平均交叉口间距、三路交叉口比例等因素与行人事故呈显著负相关;相较于高等、低等土地利用强度,中等土地利用强度对行人事故的影响最大。  相似文献   

4.
In spite of enormous improvements in vehicle safety, roadway design, and operations, there is still an excessive amount of traffic crashes resulting in injuries and major productivity losses. Despite the many studies on factors of crash frequency and injury severity, there is still further research to be conducted. Tree and utility pole/other pole related (TUOP) crashes present approximately 12 to 15% of all roadway departure (RwD) fatal crashes in the U.S. The count of TUOP crashes comprise nearly 22% of all fatal crashes in Louisiana. From 2010 to 2016, there were 55,857 TUOP crashes reported in Louisiana. Individually examining each of these crash reports is not a realistic option to investigate crash factors. Therefore, this study employed text mining and interpretable machine learning (IML) techniques to analyze all TUOP crashes (with available crash narratives) that occurred in Louisiana from 2010 to 2016. This study has two major goals: 1) to develop a framework for applying machine learning models to classify injury levels from unstructured textual content, and 2) to apply an IML framework that provides probability measures of keywords and their association with the injury classification. The present study employed three machine learning algorithms in the classification of injury levels based on the crash narrative data. Of the used modeling techniques, the eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model shows better performance, with accuracy ranging from 0.70 to 24% for the training data and from 0.30% to 16% for the test data.  相似文献   

5.
Road safety modeling enables the development of crash prediction models and the investigation of which factors contribute to crash occurrence. Developing multivariate response models is also valuable, but such models are currently under-exploited. Machine learning techniques, especially artificial neural networks (ANN), have been presented as possible alternatives. Furthermore, selecting a proper roadway segmentation is one of the first tasks in the standard crash modeling workflow. However, this is a challenging task, especially in terms of choosing a segment length. This article presents a study of the influence of segment length on the development of multivariate response models (i.e., three response variables: property damage only crashes, injured victims crashes, and fatal crashes). The models use ANN for a road segment of a Brazilian divided multilane highway. The highway to be modeled was divided into segments with 10 different fixed lengths. The model characterization included geometric and operational data available for the years from 2011 to 2017. The models were evaluated in terms of errors and by residual plot analysis. The 5-km segment of the northbound carriageway and the 4.5-km segment of the southbound carriageway presented the smallest errors and the highest values of R2. The residual analyses confirmed the trend to improve the model with the greater segment lengths. This was clear by the residues' distribution around zero, except for the output “Fatal crashes”. The better performance of the longer segments models was expected because these models aggregate more crashes into one segment. The reduction of no crash observations also facilitated the improvement of the models' goodness-of-fit. The use of ANNs also revealed its potential value. However, it is still important to seek strategies to deal with the excess of zeros in fatal crashes; a problem that also occurs in the traditional statistical modeling process.  相似文献   

6.
基于道路交通事故数据探究事故影响因素对于认识事故的影响因素、提高交通安全水平具有重要意义。利用近年来国内典型较严重道路交通事故数据,应用泊松模型和负二项模型,以区分事故形态的方式建立追尾事故、侧碰事故及撞行人事故的事故死亡率的道路影响因素分析模型。这些模型以三类事故中涉及人员的死亡数为因变量,以一系列道路因素为自变量,将事故涉及人数作为偏移变量。模型的具体形式以过离散系数及赤池信息量准则(AIC)为依据进行选择。结果显示,追尾事故的死亡率与道路等级、路侧防护设施显著相关;侧碰事故则与天气、路表情况、路口路段位置、坡度以及道路结构有关;撞行人事故与路表情况、道路等级、车道数、平曲线半径有关。本文拓展了事故严重性研究的深度,其研究成果对于更好地利用重特大事故的深入调查数据有现实意义,也可为事故分析及道路设计等提供借鉴。   相似文献   

7.
This study aims to investigate the contributing factors affecting the occurrence of crashes while lane-changing maneuvers of drivers. Two different data sets were used from the same drivers' population. The first data set was collected from the traffic police crash reports and the second data set was collected through a questionnaire survey that was conducted among 429 drivers. Two different logistic regression models were developed by employing the two sets of the collected data. The results of the crash occurrence model showed that the drivers' factors (gender, nationality and years of experience in driving), location and surrounding condition factors (non-junction locations, light and road surface conditions) and roads feature (road type, number of lanes and speed limit value) are the significant variables that affected the occurrence of lane-change crashes. About 57.2% of the survey responders committed that different sources of distractions were the main reason for their sudden or unsafe lane change including 21.2% was due to mobile usage. The drivers' behavior model results showed that drivers who did sudden lane change are more likely to be involved in traffic crashes with 2.53 times than others. The drivers who look towards the side mirrors and who look out the windows before lane-change intention have less probability to be involved in crashes by 4.61 and 3.85 times than others, respectively. Another interesting finding is that drivers who reported that they received enough training about safe lane change maneuvering during issuing the driving licenses are less likely to be involved in crashes by 2.06 times than other drivers.  相似文献   

8.
为挖掘多模式失效概率与长下坡路段重型卡车事故之间的关系,建立了重型卡车在长下坡路段的多模式失效概率与车辆事故之间的关系模型。并针对重型卡车在长下坡路段可能的失效模式,如侧滑、侧翻、视距不足、制动失效,在此基础上建立了多模式失效概率预测模型;通过蒙特卡罗法模拟并求解单模式失效的概率,宽界限法求解失效系统的多模式失效概率;将多模式失效概率作为解释变量与其他道路因素结合,分别建立泊松模型、随机效应泊松模型、随机参数泊松模型,将多模式失效概率与重型卡车事故建立函数关系;对比3种模型的拟合优度指标,优选出最优事故预测模型,用来挖掘重型卡车事故与多模式失效概率之间的关系。以华盛顿州71段长下坡10年的重型卡车事故数据及道路设计数据进行方法验证。结果表明:随机参数泊松模型与随机效应泊松模型的拟合优度相差较小,二者均优于泊松模型;当考虑多模式失效概率时,平曲线半径、纵坡坡度、超高对重型卡车事故的影响均不显著,即三者的影响被削弱,尤其是平曲线半径和超高,多模式失效概率的弹性(0.239)远大于二者的弹性(平曲线半径和超高的弹性分别仅为0.097和0.002);重型卡车的事故与多模式失效概率近似线性关系,且截距不为0。即多模式失效概率可用于道路安全分析的表征指标,但与事故概率不等价。   相似文献   

9.
A roadway departure (RwD) crash is defined as a crash that occurs after a vehicle crosses an edge line or a center line, or otherwise leaves the designated travel path. RwD crashes account for approximately 50% of all traffic fatalities in the U.S. Additionally, crashes related to roadside fixed objects such as trees, utility poles, or other poles (TUOP) make up 12–15% of all fatal RwD crashes in the U.S. Data spanning over seven years (2010–2016) shows that TUOP crashes account for approximately 22% of all fatal crashes in Louisiana, which is significantly higher than the national statistic. This study aims to determine the effect of crash, geometric, environmental, and vehicle characteristics on TUOP crashes by applying the fast and frugal tree (FFT) heuristics algorithm to Louisiana crash data. FFT identifies five major cues or variable threshold attributes that contribute significantly to predicting TUOP crashes. These cues include posted speed limit, primary contributing factor, highway type, weather, and locality type. The balanced accuracy is around 56% for both training and test data. The current model shows higher accuracies compared to machine learning models (e.g., support vector machine, CART). The present findings emphasize the importance of a comprehensive understanding of factors that influence TUOP crashes. The insights from this study can help data-driven decision making at both planning and operation levels.  相似文献   

10.
掌握城市道路交通事故空间分布特征是城市道路交通安全管理的重要基础。基于深圳市2014~2016年的道路交通事故数据,首先应用地理编码方法对原始事故记录进行空间定位,形成事故的空间分布。其次针对考虑/不考虑路网密度的2种情况,应用密度分析方法对道路交通事故多发的区域和事故严重程度较高的区域进行鉴别,比较2种情况下区域分布的差异并分析造成这种差异的可能原因。最后利用异常点分析和热点分析2种空间聚类分析模型对事故严重程度较高的区域进行进一步鉴别,并对密度分析和聚类分析2种方法得到的结果进行了比较。密度分析结果表明:就事故频度而言,深圳市中心城区单位面积上的交通事故频度较高,而郊区单位长度道路上的交通事故分布更为密集;就事故严重程度而言,郊区的交通事故平均严重程度高于市中心区域。造成上述差异的原因可能与郊区道路限速较高等因素有关。聚类分析结果与密度分析结果相近,在郊区形成了高严重程度的事故聚类,而在中心城区形成了低严重程度的事故聚类,说明郊区的交通事故严重程度总体高于市中心区域。从2种方法的比较来看,密度分析简单易行,有助于交通管理部门对城市交通事故空间分布特征直观快速的了解;聚类分析可精确到事故点,为精细化的交通安全管理工作提供支撑。研究结果表明基于密度分析和聚类分析的研究方法对于确定道路交通事故空间分布特征有良好的作用。  相似文献   

11.
事故预测模型是广泛采用的交通安全定量分析方法,但往往要求具有完备的道路、交通和事故数据。然而,基础数据相对不健全是包括中国在内的发展中国家交通安全管理面临的主要问题之一,例如仅有发生事故路段或者交叉口的相关属性特征(即零截尾数据)。为此,为确保基础数据不全的情况下交叉口事故预测的准确性,提出了基于零截尾的广义负二项回归模型;采集了246个非信号控制交叉口的交通与事故数据,采用传统负二项模型和新提出的零截尾负二项模型对全数据和零截尾数据分别进行对比分析。结果表明:在针对截尾数据的分析中,零截尾负二项模型明显优于传统负二项模型,并且零截尾负二项模型的参数估计值与基于全数据的负二项基准模型的估计值非常接近;在所有模型中,交叉口的主路交通量和支路交通量与交叉口的安全性之间存在较大的正关联。此外,同等条件下,十字形交叉口的事故数量高于T形交叉口的事故数量;利用传统负二项分布模型分析截尾数据得到的事故预测模型与使用全数据的基准模型有显著差异,其结果不可靠;采用零截尾负二项分布模型的参数结果与基准模型基本一致,截尾模型的置信区间包含基准模型相应的参数估计值。当受条件所限无法获取全部数据时,可以考虑使用零截尾负二项模型进行安全分析。  相似文献   

12.
In developing countries, road traffic crashes involving pedestrians have become a foremost concern. At present, road safety assessment plans and selection of interventions are primarily restricted to traditional approaches that depend on the investigations of historical crash data. However, in developing countries such as India, the availability, consistency, and accuracy of crash data are major concerns. In contrast, proactive approaches such as studying road users' risk perception have emerged as a substitute method of examining potential risk factors. An individual's risk perception offers vital information on probable crash risk, which may be beneficial in detecting high-risk locations and major causes of crashes. Since the pedestrian fatality risk is not uniform across the urban road network level, it may be expected that pedestrians' perceived risk measured in terms of “crossing difficulty” would also vary across the sites. In this perspective, the present paper establishes a mathematical association between the pedestrians' perceived “crossing difficulty” and actual crashes. The model outcome confirms that pedestrians' perceived crossing difficulty is a good surrogate of fatal pedestrian crashes at the intersection level in Kolkata City, India. Subsequently, to examine the impact of traffic exposures, road infrastructure, land use, spatial factors, and pedestrian-level attributes on pedestrians' “crossing difficulty”; a set of Ordered Logit models are developed. The model outcomes show that high vehicle and pedestrian volume, vehicular speed, absence of designated bus stop, the presence of inaccessible pedestrian crosswalk, on-street parking, lack of signalized control (for both vehicle and pedestrian), inadequate sight distance, land use pattern, slum population, pedestrian-vehicular post encroachment time, waiting time before crossing, road width, and absence of police enforcement at an intersection significantly and positively increase pedestrian's crossing difficulty at urban intersections. To end, the model findings are advantageously utilized to develop a set of countermeasures across 3E's of road safety.  相似文献   

13.
Intersection safety continues to be a crucial issue throughout the United States. In 2016, 27% of the 37,461 traffic fatalities on U.S. roadways occurred at or near intersections. Nearly 70% of intersection-related fatalities occurred at unsignalized intersections. At such intersections, vehicles stopping or slowing to turn create speed differentials between vehicles traveling in the same direction. This is particularly problematic on two-lane highways. Research was performed to analyze safety performance for intersections on rural, two-lane roadways, with stop control on the minor roadway. Roadway, traffic, and crash data were collected from 4148 stop-controlled intersections of all 64 Parishes (counties) statewide in Louisiana, for the period of 2013 to 2017. Four count approaches, Poisson, Negative Binomial (NB), Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and Zero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) were used to model the number of intersection crashes for different severity levels. The results indicate that ZIP models provide a better fit than all other models. In addition to traffic volume, larger curve radii of major and minor roads and wider lane widths of major roads led to significantly smaller crash occurrences. However, higher speed limits of major roads led to significantly greater crash occurrences. Four-leg stop-controlled intersections have 35% greater total crashes, 49% greater fatal and injury crashes, and 25% greater property damage only (PDO) crashes, relative to three-leg intersections.  相似文献   

14.
Crash is one of the leading causes of death in the United States. Real time detection of crashes plays a pivotal role in increasing safety of highways. In this study, a deep ensemble modelling approach is proposed in which we first employed three powerful deep learning techniques, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), and Deep Neural Network (DNN), then these three models are combined using eight ensemble techniques to detect crashes in real time. Loop detectors' traffic condition, crash information, and weather condition are the main sources of data used in this study. In addition, since the dataset of this study includes 241 crash and 6038 non-crash cases, Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) is used to overcome problem of imbalanced data before training the models. The results show that while deep learning models are performing well in detecting crashes, ensemble of these three deep learning models using Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Random Forest Classifier (RFC) can improve detection performance. Interestingly, MLP and RFC ensemble models achieved the highest detection rate and lowest false alarm rate values, respectively, among all the studied models. Comparing the models regarding area under curve (AUC) of ROC curve also shows that the best five models are MLP ensemble, RFC ensemble, DNN, GRU, and LSTM, respectively, with AUC of 97.2%, 95.2%, 93.7%, 91.8%, and 91.3%.  相似文献   

15.
The research on relationships among vehicle operating speed, roadway design elements, weather, and traffic volume on crash outcomes will greatly benefit the road safety profession in general. If these relationships are well understood and characterized, existing techniques and countermeasures for reducing crash frequencies and crash severities could potentially improve, and the opportunity for new methodologies addressing and anticipating crash occurrence would naturally ensue. This study examines the prevailing operating speeds on a large scale and determines how traffic speeds and different speed measures interact with roadway characteristics and weather condition to influence the likelihood of crashes. This study used three datasets from Washington and Ohio: 1) Highway Safety Information System (HSIS), 2) the National Performance Management Research Dataset (NPMRDS), and 3) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather data. State-based conflated databases were developed using the linear conflation of HSIS and NPMRDS. The results show that certain speed measures were found to be beneficial in quantifying safety risk. Annual-level crash prediction models show that increased variability in hourly operating speed within a day and an increase in monthly operating speeds within a year are both associated with a higher number of crashes. Safety practitioners can benefit from the current study in addressing the issue of speed and weather in crash outcomes.  相似文献   

16.
Motorcycle crashes are documented in Thailand's national records but are underreported and lacking detail. In-depth motorcycle crash data, collected by Thailand Accident Research Center (TARC), contains a smaller number of motorcycle crashes but more detail. However, to draw conclusions at a national level, representativeness of the TARC in-depth data is currently unknown, and the correction of sampling biases may be required. In this study, the Capture-recapture method was used to examine the underreporting in the national crash data (from the government insurance company). It was found that 69% of fatal and 70% of non-fatal injuries were underreported, respectively. The in-depth crash data was found to be biased. The weighting methods post-stratification and iterative proportional fitting were applied to compensate for the bias and are shown to improve the representativeness of the in-depth motorcycle crash data. Weighted in-depth crash data appears to be suitable to draw conclusions on motorcyclist safety in Thailand.  相似文献   

17.
This paper presents an evaluation of risk factors for highway crashes under mixed traffic conditions. The basis of selecting study sites was abutting land use, roadway, and traffic characteristics. Accordingly, the study selected thirteen segments on the existing highway network in the state of West Bengal of India, covering a wide spectrum of such road attributes. A systematic investigation based on site-specific accident data to capture the highway sections' safety features revealed that the crash rate has steadily increased for years with traffic regardless of roadway category and conditions. A number of risk factors that affect road accidents were identified; they are mid-block access, pavement and shoulder conditions, vehicle involvement, time of day, and road configuration, i.e., two and multi-lane. The empirical observation indicates that the crash rate is relatively lower on multi-lane highways; however, the severity of any crash on such a road is relatively high. Notably, the crash frequencies on such roads are less during daylight hours due to the lane-based unidirectional traffic movement. This is quite the opposite during nighttime when drivers exhibit an inability to meet traffic contingencies, thereby increasing crash risk. The majority of crashes on two-lane highways are, on the other hand, due to unsafe driving manoeuvers. The study also observed that frequent mid-block accesses and poor shoulder conditions reduce scopes to rectify driving errors and increase crash risk as a consequence. The paper subsequently suggests proactive approaches to identify safety deficits at the time of planning and designing.  相似文献   

18.
现有的高速公路实时事故预测模型对高速公路信息化采集设备的布设密度和采集的数据粒度要求很高,在低信息化的高速公路管理工作上难以得到应用.结合国内高速公路信息化现状,使用单个检测器所采集的数据,对高速公路追尾事故实时风险进行研究.基于江苏省扬州市启扬高速公路上布设的超声波交通流检测器所采集的交通流数据,采用配对案例对照方法和二元逻辑回归,建立了双车道高速公路追尾事故实时预测模型.对事故前5~20 min的交通流数据分别构建流量时空矩阵、速度时空矩阵、平均车头间距时空矩阵,通过引入矩阵特征值简化建模过程并避免了指标间的相关性过高问题.模型总体精度85.7%,事故预测精度33.3%,误报率低于2%,相比已有模型总体预测精度较高,误报率较低,表明了该方法应用于追尾事故实时预测领域的可行性和有效性.   相似文献   

19.
Bus right hook (BRH) crashes at intersections are one of the most common types of crashes for bus carriers, which accounted for as high as 16% of fatal and injury crashes involving large buses at intersections in Taiwan. A BRH crash occurs when a bus and another vehicle traveling in the same direction head into an intersection, but the bus driver makes a right turn across the path of the through-moving vehicle, and both vehicles collide. This study responds to the research needs to identity factors associated with BRH crashes by utilizing in-vehicle data recorder (IVDR) data. A four step analysis procedure was developed, including (1) video data coding, (2) crash sequence analysis to identify crash contributing factors, (3) a case-control study to examine the relationship between the crash contributing factors and crash occurrence, and (4) modeling crash risk in terms of the crash contributing factors to better understand the crash generating process. This study first identified the existence of driver unattended time as the time between when the driver last checked the right back mirror to finally steering for a right turn, indicating the time period wherein the driver did not track the through vehicle on the right side using the right back mirror. It was found that BRH crashes could be attributed to the concurrence of unattended time and the speed difference between the bus and through vehicle. Several recommendations are discussed based on the results to further develop countermeasures to reduce this type of crash.  相似文献   

20.
Pedestrians are the most vulnerable road users; thus, understanding the primary factors that lead to pedestrian crashes is a chief concern in road safety. However, owing to the limitations of crash data in developing countries, only a few studies have evaluated the comprehensive characteristics of pedestrian crashes, specifically on different road types. This study attempted to develop pedestrian crash frequency and severity models on national roads by using the road characteristics and built environment parameters, based on the road crash data (2016–2018) that involved pedestrians in Metro Manila, Philippines. Remarkable findings included primary roads, presence of footbridges, road sections with bad surface conditions, and increased fractions of commercial, residential, and industrial roads, which exhibited a greater likelihood of pedestrian crashes. Crashes involving elderly pedestrians, heavier vehicles, late-night hours, fair surface conditions, and open spaces were associated with increased likelihoods of fatal outcomes. Essentially, this study provides a macroscopic perspective in understanding the factors associated with the severity and frequency of pedestrian crashes, and it would aid the authorities in identifying proper countermeasures.  相似文献   

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