多目标模糊规划的指派决策法在港口选址中的应用

将多目标模糊规划和运筹学中指派问题的最大差额法相结合,为港口选址找到了更优的决策方法。     

多目标模糊排序法在港口选址中的应用

港口选址，特别是大型港口的选址是在多种约束条件、多种目标要求下的一个复杂决策过程。对此，本文拟建立一个多层次指标结构体系和指标模糊评价模型，在使用模糊优度和模糊贴近度对港址方案进行排序决策基础上，提出一个处理港址优选的多目标模糊排序决策模型。本文虽然以港口选址为基础，但所提出的方法亦能有效地运用于一般大型工程的评价和选优上。     

港口腹地划分的两种新方法探讨--以大连国际航运中心为例

引入经济地理学的新理论成果———圈层结构法和点轴法,提出了圈层结构划分法和点轴结构划分法两种新的港口腹地划分方法,并应用这两种新方法对大连国际航运中心港口腹地范围的界定与划分进行实例分析。与以往的行政区划法、经济区域法等港口腹地划分方法相比,这两种方法更加注重对港口原有腹地的细分,更接近于港口腹地的实际状况,进而有利于港口企业的经营发展。     

港口锚地选址海域适用性评价及优化模型

合理的锚地选址可以保障船舶锚泊安全性,同时可以优化港口的平面布置,提高港口运营效率。总结解决锚地选址问题的现有方法,分析GIS技术在选址问题中的运用,明确锚地选址影响因素并建立综合评价指标体系,同时确定各指标权重值,通过海域适用性评价模型对所有栅格进行综合评价。基于海洋功能区划等约束条件,获得锚地选址的可行方案集,优化比选出最优方案。通过算例分析,验证本文提出的模型合理、可行,可作为锚地选址优化的一种方法。     

模糊综合评价方法在港口工程中的应用初探

介绍模糊数学在港口工程选址中进行综合评价的初步应用。     

关于邮轮港口定位、选址技术要求及建设规模的探讨

邮轮港口是邮轮产业及邮轮经济的主要载体,本文总结分析了邮轮港口的分类及其基本条件,论述了邮轮港口选址应着重考虑的技术要求和国内邮轮港口选址的基本思路,在国内外邮轮港口建设规模的基础上提出了不同类型邮轮港口的建设规模,对未来我国邮轮港口的规划和建设具有一定的参考价值。     

基于层次分析法的汕头港内陆港选址研究*

汕头港是我国沿海主要港口,也是粤东地区唯一的主要港口。通过分析汕头港发展现状和腹地经济产业发展特点,提出汕头港未来布局建设内陆港的意义。在此基础上,选取广东、福建、江西和湖南共19个地级市作为汕头港内陆港选址的候选城市,构建了候选城市涉及地理交通、经济基础和成本因素三大要素的多层次指标体系。利用层次分析法（AHP）对内陆港选址进行初探,并提出相应选址和发展建议。     

组合荷载作用下英标和法标港口铺面结构设计方法对比

目前非洲大部分地区港口铺面设计采用英《港口铺面重型结构设计手册》,而西非法语区国家则倾向于采用法国标准。但目前法标中没有专门针对港口铺面设计的规范,参考的是法标道路设计规范。由于法标道路设计中将多种荷载等效为标准荷载,直接采用此设计方法不能真实反映港口荷载实际组合情况,不能直接运用到港口铺面设计中。基于西非某新建港口铺面设计,介绍一种组合荷载作用下法标港口铺面设计方法。与英标设计方法进行对比,分析两种设计方法及铺面结构方案之间的差异,为该地区港口铺面设计方法采用法国标准提供支撑。     

基于模糊层次分析法的港口选址评价

在进行港口选址决策时涉及到很多因素,这些因素两两对比时其重要程度又具有模糊性、相对性,给决策者带来了困难。本文运用模糊层次分析法,对新建港口选址的方案进行选优,并以一个算例来说明模糊层次分析法在进行港口选址决策时的有效性和可操作性,为港口选址提供参考。     

港口货种贡献度评价方法探讨

对港口货种按港口腹地产业状况进行分类,通过定性和定量指标并利用专家咨询（Delphi）法对定性指标排序,再采用层次分析法（AHP）对港口货种进行分析,得出港口各货种对港口发展的贡献度。通过对影响港口发展各因素的分析,可为港口决策者在进行港口发展决策时提供必要的数据,有利于港口决策者对港口发展作出正确决策。     

北亚得里亚海集装箱港口群市场前景分析

欧洲发达市场是全球集装箱海运重要板块,对其市场发展潜力分析是中资企业参与欧洲集装箱港口投资的必要前提。集装箱港口市场发展潜力受多种因素影响,以腹地生产法进行市场预测是当前的主流方法,但该方法主要以外贸需求作为变量,存在片面性。针对当前海外港口集装箱市场分析中存在的问题,提出最优路径模型下港口集装箱市场规模预测,并以亚得里亚海北部港口群作为典型案例予以说明。分析表明,最优路径模型在大范围集装箱港口市场规模分析中具有较好的适应性,能够为投资决策提供参考。     

港口岸线资源综合评价方法研究及其应用

根据港口岸线资源的自然和社会属性及港口设计规范的要求,构建了以自然环境、资源和社会条件为主要因素的港口岸线资源综合评价指标体系,并结合专家打分法和熵值法确定各项指标权重,最后应用评价多目标决策计算方法获得港口岸线资源优劣的综合评分和理想港口贴近度的评价结果。将该方法应用于福建省港口岸线资源评价,为港口岸线资源合理保护和开发利用提供技术支撑。     

基于熵权和AHP的港口工程选址模糊优选决策模型

针对层次分析法(AHP)中决策者的主观判断、偏好及对问题的理解等因素可能对港口选址产生影响,引入基于熵权和模糊层次分析法,构建了基于熵权的港口选址模糊层次分析决策模型,并通过实例验证了该模型的适用性,为决策者提供了直观、可靠的依据.     

面向复杂环境的LNG码头合理布局规模仿真案例分析

LNG船舶通过限制性航道进出港时须采取一定的管控措施,具有显著的排他性,布局LNG码头时须确定合理的码头规模,以保障港区各类船舶通航效率。基于多智能体复杂系统的混合模拟仿真建模方法,以宁波舟山港六横港区南侧岸线新布局LNG码头研究为例,建立不同的仿真情境,通过设定的指标进行评价分析,研判在一定通航管控措施条件下六横港区南侧LNG码头合理布局规模,为港口码头布局和岸线合理利用提供决策依据。     

Targeting market opportunity for port growth: a CART-based decision support system

Complex decisions, such as those facing port managers when targeting market opportunities for growth, are multifaceted and follow complex patterns of sequential and iterative decision subsets that are not well captured nor represented by current parametric modelling approaches. Nonetheless, understanding how such decisions are made and the patterns they follow have important implications for policy formulation and execution. This paper uses a classification and regression trees (CART) framework—a non-parametric decision trees modelling approach-and develops a decision support system to assist port managers in making effective decisions about market opportunities they should pursue for growth. The CART-based decision support system reveals the predictive structure and complex patterns that the market opportunity selection process follows. It also advances our knowledge and understanding of the interaction and behaviour of the key decision variables and the decision makers in a port context.     

港口枢纽集装箱运输的协调评价

港口枢纽集装箱运输的协调程度对该系统的发展有着很大的促进或制约作用。通过建立港口枢纽集装箱运输的协调评价指标体系和协调评价模型,找出影响系统协调的主要因素和薄弱环节,从而对港口管理部门采取有力措施进行经营决策以争取系统的最大利益,以及制定港口发展规划具有一定的指导意义。     

Transshipment hub port selection for shipping carriers in a dual hub-port system

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the factors affecting transshipment (T/S) hub port selection by a feeder port and helps shipping carriers make a decision about T/S hub port selection in a dual hub-port system. By employing established evaluation factors, a case study is conducted to weigh the priority of factors and to select an alternative T/S hub port, such as between the Shanghai and Ningbo ports from the Nanjing feeder port in the Yangtze River delta (YRD). A combined multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework utilizing the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the consistent fuzzy preference relations (CFPR) method is employed to both reduce the number of pairwise comparisons by AHP and to obtain experts’ knowledge in the decision-making process. The result indicates that the cost, availability of hub port’s space allocation, and the connectivity between feeder port and hub port are crucial factors for T/S hub port selection by shipping carriers. In the case study, Shanghai is selected as the T/S hub port from the Nanjing feeder port. Nevertheless, Ningbo port has the advantage of cost, and if the relationship with feeder port can be improved, Ningbo port would be preferred over Shanghai as a T/S hub port for shipping carriers in a dual hub-port system.     

Port Decision Maker Perceptions on the Effectiveness of Climate Adaptation Actions

Effective adaptation to climate change impacts is rapidly becoming an important research topic. Hitherto, the perceptions and attitudes of stakeholders on climate adaptation actions are under researched, partly due to the emphasis on physical and engineering aspects during the adaptation planning process. Building on such considerations, the paper explores the perceptions of port decision makers on the effectiveness of climate adaptation actions. The findings suggest that while port decision makers are aware of potential climate change impacts and feel that more adaptation actions should be undertaken, they are skeptical about their effectiveness and value. This is complemented by a regional analysis on the results, suggesting that more tailor-made adaptation measures suited to local circumstances should be developed. The study illustrates the complexity of climate adaptation planning and of involving port decision makers under the current planning paradigm.     

Optimal handling capacity at a berth

In a recent paper Wanhill [1] described a method for determining the number of berths that should be provided at a port so that the total usage cost would be minimized. However, in many situations a port will provide a single specialized berth to cater for a particular type of cargo; for example, the unloading of iron-ore at a steelworks or the discharge of oil at a general cargo port. The problem then is not one of deciding on the number of berths to be built but rather that of finding the optimal cargo handling capacity for the single berth available. A model is presented in this paper indicating how such a decision may be made, and two examples give approximate lower and upper bounds for the optimal capacity for many practical cases. A second paper will show how a theoretical model often has to be modified in the light of particular circumstances.     

Optimal handling capacity at a berth

In a recent paper Wanhill [1] described a method for determining the number of berths that should be provided at a port so that the total usage cost would be minimized. However, in many situations a port will provide a single specialized berth to cater for a particular type of cargo; for example, the unloading of iron-ore at a steelworks or the discharge of oil at a general cargo port. The problem then is not one of deciding on the number of berths to be built but rather that of finding the optimal cargo handling capacity for the single berth available. A model is presented in this paper indicating how such a decision may be made, and two examples give approximate lower and upper bounds for the optimal capacity for many practical cases. A second paper will show how a theoretical model often has to be modified in the light of particular circumstances.