Asian hub/feeder nets: the dynamics of restructuring

The emergence of hub/feeder networks in the Singapore-Japan corridor through the 1970s and 1980s reflected not only the rapid growth of containerized cargo in regional Southeast and East Asia but also the exceptional importance of Far East/transPacific and Far East/Europe mainline shipping services in structuring these networks. This paper argues that the mid-1990s is a defining moment in the restructuring of these networks; that the period represents, in fact, a convergence of a number of different though related trends impacting on the regional shipping market. More particularly, continuing high growth rates of containerized cargo have not only spawned new ports but have also increased the proportion of ports handling threshold volumes of containers for which mainline calls, rather than handling thfeeder operations, are justified. Further, the quite dramatic retionalization of already large container shipping lines into mergers and alliances bestows a new level of market power that is able to underwrite major changes in shipping schedules, port rotations and feeder linkages. This paper speculates that these developments are generating, and will continue to generate new, hierarchically organized port/shipping networks in which high order networks will include high efficiency/high cost operations; and lower order networks will include a mix of hub and direct-call ports that will focus on different market segments.     

Multicommodity network flow model for Asia's container ports

This paper seeks to develop a multi-commodity network model to analyse the flow of containers within the Asia Pacific context. The model is used to evaluate the impact of container throughput in Asia's port by varying terminal handling charges and turnaround time. The three main regions analysed are north-east Asia, east Asia (Chinese port region) and south east Asia. Using the model, it could be shown that Busan port, which is an important transhipment hub in north-east Asia, could boost the container activities in the north-eastern part of China by improving its service quality. It is also found that the efficiency of the land link between Hong Kong and mainland China plays a crucial role for the future of Hong Kong port. While Singapore port maintains its position as a transhipment hub in south-east Asia, there would be expected competition from neighbouring low costs ports.     

The decline of the U.K. merchant fleet: an assessment of government policies in recent years—a rejoinder to Goss's comment

In recent years, the Hong Kong port has been challenged by the emergence of the Shenzhen port. This gives rise to a concern that the high terminal handling charges (THC) levied by the Hong Kong terminal operators are undermining the competitiveness of the Hong Kong port. As the major container terminals in both Hong Kong and Shenzhen are operated by the Hong Kong terminal operators, the monopoly power of these operators is commonly believed to be the cause of the high THC in Hong Kong. The theoretical model developed in this study shows that the trigger point mechanism (TPM) used by the Hong Kong Government to control the supply of terminal capacity may be a source of such monopoly power. Two possible scenarios are considered in the model—Scenario 1 in which expansion of capacity is unconstrained (i.e. the Shenzhen port); and Scenario 2 in which expansion of capacity is constrained by TPM (i.e. the Hong Kong port). Under TPM, the Hong Kong Government commits not to grant the right to build new container terminals unless and until the demand for container handling services exceeds the current capacity by a certain amount, which provides the incumbent operators incentives to invest preemptively in excess capacity in order to block the entry of potential entrants. This model is supported by the empirical findings from this study. The results from this study suggest an urgent need for the Hong Kong Government to overhaul the current port development policy as a part of the effort to promote economic integration between Hong Kong and the Mainland China.     

珠三角集装箱码头发展与香港关系的定量论述

针对不同层面关注珠三角集装箱码头发展与香港的关系,从香港、深圳港和广州港等集装箱运输发展现状及关系着手,结合广东省外贸集装箱生成量和珠江三角洲集装箱码头规划和建设情况,在不同情景下以顺向和逆向思维预测和定量分析香港与珠三角集装箱码头吞吐量之间的互补关系,探索它们之间共同繁荣、协调发展的平衡点.     

Multicommodity network flow model for Asia's container ports

This paper seeks to develop a multi-commodity network model to analyse the flow of containers within the Asia Pacific context. The model is used to evaluate the impact of container throughput in Asia's port by varying terminal handling charges and turnaround time. The three main regions analysed are north-east Asia, east Asia (Chinese port region) and south east Asia. Using the model, it could be shown that Busan port, which is an important transhipment hub in north-east Asia, could boost the container activities in the north-eastern part of China by improving its service quality. It is also found that the efficiency of the land link between Hong Kong and mainland China plays a crucial role for the future of Hong Kong port. While Singapore port maintains its position as a transhipment hub in south-east Asia, there would be expected competition from neighbouring low costs ports.     

Port resources rationalization for better container barge services in Hong Kong

The manufacturing base in the Pearl River Delta of China is moving westwards, where the Pearl River system has extensive coverage. This makes container barge transport a new growth area for Hong Kong Port. Traditionally, Hong Kong Port has been the main gateway for containers transported through the Pearl River system, but this advantageous position is under challenge from the adjacent ports in South China, especially from Shenzhen Port, which is keen to take a bigger share of the new growth by improving the access of barges to its port facilities. While services at Shenzhen Port are improving, barge operators have been experiencing high congestion at Hong Kong Port. Improving the quality of barge container services becomes crucial for Hong Kong Port. In this study, we propose and investigate three improvement strategies: to enhance the consolidation of small container flows, to increase the efficiency of berth allocations for barges, and to optimize the overall utilization of port resources in Hong Kong. These strategies can be instrumental for keeping Hong Kong's status as the gateway for the Pearl River system and help maintain its competitiveness as an international shipping hub.     

巴布亚新几内亚科考瑞港集装箱吞吐量预测

为评估新建巴布亚新几内亚科考瑞港的建设规模,构建由回归分析模型、腹地集装箱运输需求重力模型、多目标港口模糊评价模型和基于Logit模型的港口选择模型4部分组成的综合预测方法。对巴布亚新几内亚科考瑞港的腹地集装箱运输需求进行预测;并对腹地省份在不同港口的集装箱运量进行测算,从而科学合理地预测科考瑞港的集装箱吞吐量,为实施项目的必要性提供支持。该预测方法使用较少的基础数据即可比较科学客观地预测新建港口的集装箱吞吐量,能够较好地解决在不发达国家或地区统计资料缺失、安全局势不稳定导致腹地调研困难等情况下的吞吐量预测问题,为海外港口的建设、咨询项目提供帮助。     

基于GRNN神经网络的长江干线港口集装箱吞吐量预测

在长江集装箱货源市场调查分析的基础上,根据长江干线集装箱发展形势,结合长江干线港口发展情况及历年数据调查,考虑影响港口吞吐量预测的复杂因素,运用GRNN神经网络的优点,构建预测模型。预测结果证明,该模型在应用中是有效的,且当样本数据短缺时,预测效果也较佳。     

Spatial pattern of the global shipping network and its hub-and-spoke system

Port system is a research focus of transport geography, and most studies believe carriers are important factors in the development and concentration of the port system. Since the 1990s, carriers have played an important role in organizing the global shipping network and reorganizing the port system. But there isn’t a perfect method to evaluate carriers’ influence and the roles of each port in the maritime shipping networks. In this paper, we use the monthly schedule table of international carriers to describe and model the spatial pattern of the global shipping network and identify its hub-and-spoke system. The result shows that a hierarchical structure exists in the global shipping network. The North Hemisphere, especially the East Asia and the Southeast Asia, is a dominant region of the worldwide shipping network. East Asia, Southeast Asia, Northeast Europe, and East coast of the USA are the concentration regions of worldwide shipping lines. The ports of Hong Kong, Singapore, Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Kaohsiung etc have advanced capacity for maritime shipping and high potentials for being hub ports in the global shipping network. Today, the worldwide shipping network is transforming from the multi-port calling system to 44 regional hub-and-spoke systems. Meanwhile, the sub-networks with hub ports of Antwerp, Singapore, and Hong Kong have become the most important ones and dominate the whole global shipping network.     

The size effect of a port on the container handling efficiency level and market share in internation transshipment flow

This study examines the relationship between the size of a port, its efficiency increase and the performance growth in the transshipment market. The hypothesis tested is that the bigger size of a port would increase the market share of the port in container transshipment; only when the size effect guarantees better ‘relative’ container handling efficiency in competing port system where the port belongs. To verify the hypothesis, this study carries out two analyses. First, the overall efficiency change of major Asian ports is examined through stochastic frontier analysis (SFA)—this produces the relative efficiency indices of the ports. Second, the relationship between efficiency indices and container transshipment volumes is studied through panel data analysis. From these analyses, it is observed that larger Asian ports show better cargo handling efficiency in relative terms; they also record bigger market share in container transshipment, while the size effect of the ports starts to play a factor when the annual container throughput reaches 5 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU).     

OD流仿真模型在珠三角集装箱港口群布局规划中的应用研究

构建由珠三角集装箱运输OD流运输网络、港口模糊综合评价模型、中转港选择的Logit模型3大部分构成的OD流仿真模型。在2020年珠三角集装箱生成量预测基础上,应用该模型对区域内集装箱运输需求在各OD流路径中的运输量进行仿真模拟测算,科学合理地预测该年度珠三角各港的集装箱吞吐量,为2020年度的珠三角集装箱港口群的合理布局规划提供指引。     

Competition for transhipment containers by major ports in Southeast Asia: slot capacity analysis

Container ports in Southeast Asia accounted for an estimated 30.0% of the world's transhipment traffic in 2004. The share of the region's transhipment trade was forecasted to increase to 32.5% in 2015. The potential offered by this large and expanding market encouraged major container terminal operators located in Port Klang, Singapore and Tanjung Pelepas to compete intensively for this business by attracting major container shipping lines that operated along key east-west sailing routes to hub at their terminals.

This paper analyses the annual slot capacity connected to the three selected ports that was deployed by all the container shipping lines in 1999-2004. The data are computed and categorized based on shipping trade routes. The study aims to shed light on port competition in Southeast Asia for transhipment containers by an in-depth and quantitative analysis.

The analysis finds that competition from Port Klang and Tanjung Pelepas had a negative impact on Singapore's transhipment performance. Although Singapore continued to enjoy a dominant position as the premier transhipment hub in the region in terms of market share by both transhipment throughput and annualized slot capacity, the evidence suggested that its hold on the market appeared to be slipping, albeit gradually. Overall, Tanjung Pelepas is expected to pose the strongest challenge to Singapore's transhipment hub ambitions. Managerial implications for the ports are drawn.     

Evolving competition between Hong Kong and Shenzhen ports

Shenzhen Port (SZP), once a negligible local port, has risen dramatically to a world-leading container port and an “equal” player with Hong Kong Port (HKP). Will this market share reallocation continue, or will equilibrium be eventually realized for HKP to prosper continuously? We examine the relationship between these two ports to answer this question. We propose a new transformation method to describe the growth of container cargo transport demand, define the quantitative measures of the competition relationship and port competitiveness, and present a rigorous analytical framework with econometric tests and models to understand the true relationship between HKP and SZP. Direct empirical tests suggest that SZP complements HKP; however, the two ports exhibit strong competition when the effect of demand growth is excluded. Considering transshipment separately, we find that the impact of SZP on HKP is negative in transshipment but complementary in direct shipment. We may conclude that HKP does not affect SZP, whereas SZP has competitive power over HKP. These results are consistent with the findings of some previous theoretical studies.     

中国集装箱港口的现状与发展态势

通过对中国集装箱港口吞吐量与世界、亚洲、东亚地区的分析比较,论述了中国集装     

基于江海联运的长江沿线港口集装箱吞吐量分析预测

在长江集装箱货源市场调查分析的基础上,根据长江沿岸集装箱发展形势,结合长江各港口发展情况及其历年数据调查,分析长江沿岸省市的外贸现状、经济趋势、集装箱发展特点,考虑集装箱生成量和港口吞吐量预测的影响因素,运用科学合理的方法,对2006—2010年长江(上、中、下游)沿岸外贸集装箱生成量、流向,以及长江沿岸省市至洋山江海联运量进行预测分析。     

集装箱货运仿真模型在珠三角港港口投资方案评估(英文)

In the Pearl River Delta (PRD), there is severe competition between container ports, particularly those in Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou, for collecting international maritime container cargo. In addition, the second phase of the Nansha terminal in Guangzhou’s port and the first phase of the Da Chang Bay container terminal in Shenzhen opened last year. Under these circumstances, there is an increasing need to quantitatively measure the impact these infrastructure investments have on regional cargo flows. The analysis should include the effects of container terminal construction, berth deepening, and access road construction. The authors have been developing a model for international cargo simulation (MICS) which can simulate the movement of cargo. The volume of origin-destination (OD) container cargo in the East Asian region was used as an input, in order to evaluate the effects of international freight transportation policies. This paper focuses on the PRD area and, by incorporating a more detailed network, evaluates the impact of several infrastructure investment projects on freight movement.     

中韩集装箱码头泊位通过能力计算方法比较分析

首先介绍了中国大陆、中国香港和韩国三地现行的集装箱码头泊位通过能力计算公式,并从参数的选取、参数的取值和公式的结构三方面对计算公式进行了比较分析,指出了三地现行的集装箱码头泊位通过能力计算公式之间的差异,并通过实例分析指出了中国大陆目前还在采用的《海港总平面设计规范》（JTJ211-99）中的集装箱码头泊位通过能力计算公式存在的问题,揭示出集装箱码头年泊位实际吞吐能力超过设计能力的主要原因,并提出了相关建议。     

Canadian container ports: how have they fared? How will they do?

Between 1980 and 1989 container TEUs handled at all world ports increased by a factor of 2.11. On the East Coast of North America, the growth factor was only 1.69; on the West Coast, 2.23. These growth factors, when multiplied by the 1980 TEU volume at individual North American ports, give 1989 expected performance levels for the ports. Comparing the expected performance to the actual, it is found in the Canadian context that the big winner is Vancouver; the big loser is Saint John. Halifax and Montreal have outperformed their nearest US East Coast rivals but have not performed as well as southern ports on the Altantic Seaboard. These and other comparisons are made in order to describe how Canadian container ports have performed in the decade of the 1980s. The paper then speculates on how the ports will do in the future, based on a discussion of five factors: port facilities; inland transportation connections; shipping lines serving the ports; demand for container shipping; and legal arrangements between the United States and Canada.     

长三角港口经济运行情况及2010年形势分析

国际金融危机对长三角地区港口（简称长三角港口）和航运业发展的冲击相当严重,上海国际航运中心建设面临了严峻挑战和考验。两省一市相关港航管理部门和企业积极应对,危中求机,逐步扭转了港航生产持续下滑的态势,率先实现企稳回升,全年长三角港口经济运行总体上好于预期,     

Forecasting container throughput based on wavelet transforms within a decomposition-ensemble methodology: a case study of China

To improve predictive accuracy, new hybrid models are proposed for container throughput forecasting based on wavelet transforms and data characteristic analysis (DCA) within a decomposition-ensemble methodology. Because of the complexity and nonlinearity of the time series of container throughputs at ports, the methodology decomposes the original time series into several components, which are rather simpler sub-sequences. Consequently, difficult forecasting tasks are simplified into a number of relatively easier subtasks. In this way, the proposed hybrid models can improve the accuracy of forecasting significantly. In the methodology, four main steps are involved: data decomposition, component reconstruction based on the DCA, individual prediction for each reconstructed component, and ensemble prediction as the final output. An empirical analysis was conducted for illustration and verification purposes by using time series of container throughputs at three main ports in Bohai Rim, China. The results suggest that the proposed hybrid models are able to forecast better than do other benchmark models. Forecasting may facilitate effective real-time decision making for strategic management and policy drafting. Predictions of container throughput can help port managers make tactical and operational decisions, such as operations planning in ports, the scheduling of port equipment, and route optimization.