Sustainable mobility: Policy design and implementation in three Norwegian cities

The paper explores barriers for designing and implementing policies for the transition to more environmentally sustainable urban mobility, and strategies for overcoming these barriers in three Norwegian cities. Empirical data has been collected by interviewing key informants and analysing relevant documents. The findings show that there is broad political support for placing sustainable mobility high on the political agenda. Challenges appear when policy measures are designed and implemented. Cultural, legal, political, organisational, financial and knowledge-related barriers are identified. Many similar barriers are identified in the three case cities, but differences also appear. The results indicate that the size of the cities as well as the type of policy packages implemented are important factors, impacting both the type and strength of barriers. Several strategies for overcoming barriers have been implemented in the three case cities with success. The implementation of policy packages with a combination of “push” and “pull” measures is perhaps the most important strategy. In addition, using communication strategically and allowing for trials and step-by-step introduction of policy measures are success factors. Better methods for stakeholder involvement and planning tools for bicyclists and pedestrians may increase the acceptance of policy measures and speed up the transition toward sustainable mobility.     

Policy implementation of multi-modal (shared) mobility: review of a supply-demand value proposition canvas

ABSTRACT

Urban mobility options have increased in recent years, assisted by the widespread availability of smart device software apps, geo-positioning technology, and convenient electronic financial transactions. Multi-modal shared mobility consists of public transit systems and shared mobilities that support first/last mile travel, denoting the capability of Mobility as a Service (MaaS), and to stimulate additional non-private car travel demand. This paper reviews the supply and demand sides of implementation of multi-modal shared mobility. It found that an abundance of shared modes of car, bike, and e-scooter that are linked to public transport, can improve transport accessibility to meet specific public preferences, reduce social inequality, and minimise dilemmas from the demand side. This study introduces government policy innovations and other supporting system to improve the implementation of multi-modal shared mobility. Government policies play a key role in supporting shared mobility and technology development. However, governments do not have much information about new products such as shared mobility, which creates difficulties in subsidising multi-modal shared mobility services and potentially leads to policy failures around shared mobility schemes. This study suggests that policy entrepreneurship in collaboration with other partners, policy innovation, and the notions of merit goods and second-best policymaking can enable policy initiatives towards multi-modal shared mobility and provide supporting arguments if policies encounter failures. Implementing multi-modal shared mobility requires a collaborative partnership for a paradigm shift: service providers and government must jointly set a merit-based business model, with the support of organisations to achieve improved infrastructure provision, and smart technology applications. The findings will assist the community, business providers and government policymakers to promote multi-modal shared mobility as a pathway towards more efficient, environmentally sustainable, and socially responsive mobility solutions.     

Did Chinese cities that implemented driving restrictions see reductions in PM10?

Imposing driving restrictions is becoming increasingly popular as a policy intended to control urban air pollution. Existing studies on this topic offer highly mixed observations, and each study tends to focus on only one city. In this paper, we used 11 Chinese cities with driving restrictions as the treatment group, and compared them to other cities that did not implement the policy. Based on a propensity score matching and difference-in-difference analysis, we found no evidence of a decrease in PM10 concentrations in cities after they implemented driving restrictions. This finding may be attributed to an increase in the number of cars in these cities after implementing driving restrictions, but we also found no evidence of an improvement in air quality for a given number of cars after implementation of the policies.     

Low-carbon futures for Shenzhen’s urban passenger transport: A human-based approach

Shenzhen, one of China’s leading cities, has the potential to be a model for achieving China’s ambitious CO₂ emission reduction targets. Using data from a travel diary survey in Shenzhen in 2014, we develop a human-based agent model to conduct a scenario study of future urban passenger transport energy consumption and CO₂ emissions from 2014 to 2050. Responses to different policy interventions at the individual level are taken into account. We find that with current policies, the carbon emissions of the urban passenger transport sector in Shenzhen will continuously increase without a peak before 2050. Strengthening 21 transport policies will help Shenzhen to peak the carbon emissions by 2030 for passenger transport. Among these policies, the car quota policy and the fuel economy standard are essential for achieving a carbon peak by 2030. In addition, a package of seven policies, including fewer car quotas, a stricter fuel economy standard, raising parking fees, limiting parking supply, increasing EV charging facilities and subway lines, and improving public transport services, is sufficient to peak carbon emissions by 2030, although at an emissions level higher than for the 21 policies.     

On a pathway to de-carbonization – A comparison of new passenger car CO2 emission standards and taxation measures in the G20 countries

Considering the role of transport for a 1.5 Degree stabilization pathway and the importance of light-duty vehicle fuel efficiency within that, it is important to understand the key elements of a policy package to shape the energy efficiency of the vehicle fleet. This paper presents an analysis focusing on three types of policy measures: (1) CO₂ emission standards for new vehicles, (2) vehicle taxation directly and indirectly based on CO₂ emission levels, and (3) fuel taxation. The paper compares the policies in the G20 economies and estimates the financial impact of those policies using the example of a Ford Focus vehicle model. This analysis is a contribution to the assessment of the role of the transport sector in global decarbonisation efforts. The findings of this paper show that only an integrated approach of regulatory and fiscal policy measures can yield substantial efficiency gains in the vehicle fleet and can curb vehicle kilometres travelled by individual motorised transport. Using the illustrative example of one vehicle model, the case study analysis shows that isolated measures, e.g. fuel efficiency regulation without corresponding fuel and vehicle taxes only have minor CO₂ emission reduction effects and that policy measures need to be combined in order to achieve substantial emission reduction gains over time. The analysis shows that the highest level of impact is achieved by a combination regulatory and fiscal policies rather than only one policy even if this policy is more aggressive. When estimating the quantitative effect of fuel efficiency standards, vehicle and fuel tax, the analysis shows that substantial gains with regard to CO₂ emission are only achieved at a financial impact level above 500 Euros over a four year period.     

The influence of e-carsharing schemes on electric vehicle adoption and carbon emissions: An emerging economy study

Moving toward sustainable mobility, the sharing economy business model emerges as a prominent practice that can contribute to the transition to sustainability. Using a system dynamics modeling approach, this paper investigates the impacts of an e-carsharing scheme in carbon emissions and in electric vehicle adoption. We study the VAMO scheme located in Fortaleza, Brazil, as the first e-carsharing scheme in the country. We study two policies combined: a VAMO planned growth policy and a retirement policy for conventional vehicles. Our results show that the VAMO incentive policy is an important factor to reduce emissions and to increase awareness of electric vehicles, highlighting the role of the government as an institutional entrepreneur, stimulating and sustaining the VAMO scheme. The retirement policy in combination with the VAMO incentive policy obtained the best results in our simulations, reducing 29% of CO₂ emissions and increasing 36% electric vehicle adoption, when compared to the business-as-usual scenario. The main conclusions are that such e-carsharing schemes offer direct and indirect benefits to urban mobility (specially to electric vehicle adoption) and that they depend on how the government supports them.     

A virtual environment for the formulation of policy packages

The interdependence and complexity of socio-technical systems and availability of a wide variety of policy measures to address policy problems make the process of policy formulation difficult. In order to formulate sustainable and efficient transport policies, development of new tools and techniques is necessary. One of the approaches gaining ground is policy packaging, which shifts focus from implementation of individual policy measures to implementation of combinations of measures with the aim of increasing efficiency and effectiveness of policy interventions by increasing synergies and reducing potential contradictions among policy measures. In this paper, we describe the development of a virtual environment for the exploration and analysis of different configurations of policy measures in order to build policy packages. By developing systematic approaches it is possible to examine more alternatives at a greater depth, decrease the time required for the overall analysis, provide real-time assessment and feedback on the effect of changes in the configurations, and ultimately form more effective policies. The results from this research demonstrate the usefulness of computational approaches in addressing the complexity inherent in the formulation of policy packages. This new approach has been applied to the formulation of policies to advance sustainable transportation.     

Optimization of incentive polices for plug-in electric vehicles

High purchase prices and the lack of supporting infrastructure are major hurdles to the adoption of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). It is widely recognized that the government could help break these barriers through incentive policies, such as offering rebates to PEV buyers or funding charging stations. The objective of this paper is to propose a modeling framework that can optimize the design of such incentive policies. The proposed model characterizes the impact of the incentives on the dynamic evolution of PEV market penetration over a discrete set of time intervals, by integrating a simplified consumer vehicle choice model and a macroscopic travel and charging model. The optimization problem is formulated as a nonlinear and non-convex mathematical program and solved by a specialized steepest descent direction algorithm. We show that, under mild regularity conditions, the KKT conditions of the proposed model are necessary for local optimum. Results of numerical experiments indicate that the proposed algorithm is able to obtain satisfactory local optimal policies quickly. These optimal policies consistently outperform the alternative policies that mimic the state-of-the-practice by a large margin, in terms of both the total savings in social costs and the market share of PEVs. Importantly, the optimal policy always sets the investment priority on building charging stations. In contrast, providing purchase rebates, which is widely used in current practice, is found to be less effective.     

Factors and scenario analysis of transport carbon dioxide emissions in rapidly-developing cities

To identify key factors of transport CO₂ emissions and determine effective policies for emission reductions in fast-growing cities, this study establishes transport CO₂ emission models, quantifying the influences of polycentricity and satellite cities and re-examining the effects of per capita GDP and metro service. Based on the model results, we forecast future residents’ urban transport CO₂ emissions under several scenarios of different urban and transport policies and new energy technologies. We find nonlinear quadratic growth relationship between commuting CO₂ emissions and per capita GDP, and the elasticities of household and individual commuting CO₂ emission to per capita GDP are 1.90% and 1.45%, respectively. Developing job-housing balanced satellite cities and self-contained polycentric city can greatly decrease emissions from high emitters and can contribute to about 51–82% of the emission reductions by 2050 compared with the scenario of business as usual (BAU). Promotion of electric vehicles, electric public buses, metros, and improvement of traditional energy efficiency contributes to about 48–57% of the emission reductions by 2050 compared with the BAU. When these policies and technologies are combined, about 90% of the emissions could be reduced by 2050 compared with the BAU, and the emissions will be about 1.2–4.9 times of the present. The findings suggest that fostering polycentric urban form and job-housing balanced satellite cities is the key step for future transport CO₂ emission reductions. Metro network promotion, energy efficiency improvement, and new energy type applications can also be effective in emission reductions.     

Commuters’ acceptance of and behavior reactions to license plate restriction policy: A case study of Tianjin,China

License plate restriction (LPR) policies are currently being implemented in major Chinese cities with the aim of mitigating traffic congestions. Meanwhile, much controversy regarding the effectiveness of the LPR policies is arising. To better understand the impact of the LPR policies, this paper studies commuters’ acceptance of and behavior reactions to the policies after their implementation. A theoretical model was proposed as the first step, followed by a questionnaire survey that was conducted in Tianjin, China, where an LPR policy has been in place since March 2014. Car owners frequently commuting within the restricted area were sampled as respondents, and a multi-variable regression method was employed to analyze the collected survey data. The results indicate that it is necessary to promote public’s acceptance of the LPR policy, because lower acceptance will lead to more negative reactions towards the policy, which may weaken its effectiveness. Main factors affecting the level of acceptance of the policy are also found, which may serve as a reference for transportation authorities seeking to increase commuters’ acceptance of the policy. These findings are beneficial to designing and implementing LPR policies.     

Policy effects on charging behaviour of electric vehicle owners and on purchase intentions of prospective owners: Natural and stated choice experiments

Policy makers are looking for effective ways to promote the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). Among the options is the roll-out and management of charging infrastructure to meet the EV drivers’ refuelling needs. However, policies in this area do not only have a long-term effect on the adoption of EVs among prospective owners, they also have short-term impacts on the usage of public charging infrastructure among current EV owners and vice versa. Presently, studies focusing on both effects simultaneously are lacking, missing out on possible cross-pollination between these areas. This study uniquely combines stated and revealed preference data to estimate the effect of particular policy measures aimed at EV adoption, on the one hand, and charging behaviour, on the other. Using a large dataset (1.7 million charging sessions) related to charging behaviour using public charging infrastructure in the Netherlands we quantify the effects of (i) daytime-parking (to manage parking pressure) and (ii) free parking (to promote purchase of EVs) policies on charging behaviour. To estimate the effects of these particular policies on EV purchase intentions, a stated choice experiment was conducted among potential EV-buyers. Results show that cross-pollinations between EV charging and adaptation policies exist and should be taken into account when designing policies for EV adoption.     

A two-sided market platform analysis for the electric vehicle adoption: Firm strategies and policy design

This study explores how to facilitate the electric vehicle (EV) diffusion from a two-sided market platform competition. We develop a stylized model depicting the platform competition between electric and gasoline vehicles by combining indirect network effects of consumer and energy supplier sides as well as vehicle manufacturers’ profits. The findings of this study provide several meaningful strategic and policy implications for EV manufacturers and policymakers who wish to enhance EV diffusion. First, EV sales are significantly influenced by indirect network effects from the energy supplier side to the consumer side, and vice versa. This implies that EV manufacturers who wish to boost EV diffusion should implement a strategy providing energy suppliers with incentives to willingly join the EV platform. Second, the dynamic nature of the effects of energy costs on platform competition might render counter-intuitive evidence that the drop in oil prices does not always negatively influence EV sales. This requires EV manufacturers to prepare a contingent strategy adjusting to such unexpected conditions. Third, governments should consider the energy supplier side as well as the consumer side in designing EV diffusion policies. When governments have a very challenging EV diffusion target, a balanced policy, which treats both gasoline and electric vehicle technologies fairly, may be more effective than a consumer subsidy policy.     

Urban transport in Germany: providing feasible alternatives to the car

With the second highest level of car ownership in the world, and the third highest population density in Europe, Germany has adopted a range of policies to balance the many private benefits of car use with its serious social and environmental problems. In order to ‘tame’ the car, most German cities have implemented a twofold strategy of expanding and improving pedestrian, bicycling and public transport alternatives simultaneously with restricting car use and making it more expensive. That has increased political acceptability since the car‐restrictive measures are not perceived as mere punishment of car drivers. The results of this coordinated urban transport strategy have been impressive. Germany, as a whole, has managed to increase public transport use and to stabilize the car share of modal split. Some cities, of course, have been more successful than others, and this paper examines three of the most successful cities: Münster, Freiburg and Munich. In each of the cities, the percentage of travel by bicycling, walking and public transport has been raised over the past 20 years, while the car's share of modal split has fallen. This article documents the range of policies used to restrict car use, both in Germany as a whole, and in the three case‐study cities in particular. The key to success is found to be mutually reinforcing transport and land‐use policies. It is the combination of a whole set of coordinated policies that explains the dramatic success in changing travel behavior.     

Modeling charging infrastructure impact on the electric vehicle market in China

The plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) is deemed as a critical technological revolution, and the governments are imposing various vehicle policies to promote its development. Meanwhile, the market success of PEVs depends on many aspects. This study integrates one’s use of charging infrastructure at home, public place and workplace into the market dynamics analysis tool, New Energy and Oil Consumption Credits (NEOCC) model, to systematically assess the charging infrastructure (home parking ratio, public charging opportunity, and charging costs) impact on PEV ownership costs and analyze how the PEV market shares may be affected by the attributes of the charging infrastructure. Compared to the charging infrastructure, the impact of battery costs is incontrovertibly decisive on PEV market shares, the charging infrastructure is still non-negligible in the PEV market dynamics. The simulation results find that the public charging infrastructure has more effectiveness on promoting the PEV sales in the PEV emerging market than it does in the PEV mature market. However, the improvement of charging infrastructure does not necessarily lead to a larger PEV market if the charging infrastructure incentives do not coordinate well with other PEV policies. Besides, the increase of public charging opportunities has limited motivations on the growth of public PEV fleets, which are highly correlated to the number of public fast charging stations or outlets. It also finds that more home parking spaces can stimulate more sales of personal plug-in hybrid electric vehicles instead of personal battery electric vehicles.     

Fuel cycle emissions and life cycle costs of alternative fuel vehicle policy options for the City of Houston municipal fleet

Municipal fleet vehicle purchase decisions provide a direct opportunity for cities to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and air pollutants. However, cities typically lack comprehensive data on total life cycle impacts of various conventional and alternative fueled vehicles (AFV) considered for fleet purchase. The City of Houston, Texas, has been a leader in incorporating hybrid electric (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV), and battery electric (BEV) vehicles into its fleet, but has yet to adopt any natural gas-powered light-duty vehicles. The City is considering additional AFV purchases but lacks systematic analysis of emissions and costs. Using City of Houston data, we calculate total fuel cycle GHG and air pollutant emissions of additional conventional gasoline vehicles, HEVs, PHEVs, BEVs, and compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles to the City's fleet. Analyses are conducted with the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model. Levelized cost per kilometer is calculated for each vehicle option, incorporating initial purchase price minus residual value, plus fuel and maintenance costs. Results show that HEVs can achieve 36% lower GHG emissions with a levelized cost nearly equal to a conventional sedan. BEVs and PHEVs provide further emissions reductions, but at levelized costs 32% and 50% higher than HEVs, respectively. CNG sedans and trucks provide 11% emissions reductions, but at 25% and 63% higher levelized costs, respectively. While the results presented here are specific to conditions and vehicle options currently faced by one city, the methods deployed here are broadly applicable to informing fleet purchase decisions.     

The economics of workplace charging

To overcome the range-anxiety problem and further shortcomings associated with electric vehicles, workplace charging (WPC) is gaining increasing attention. We propose a microeconomic model of WPC and use the approach to shed light on the incentives and barriers employees and employers face when deciding on demand for and supply of WPC. It is shown that under market conditions there is no WPC contract an employer is willing to offer and at the same time the majority of employees is willing to accept. To overcome the lack of demand or underprovision of WPC we discuss various ‘remedies’, involving subsidies to charging facility costs and adjustments in electricity tariffs or loading technologies. We find that direct subsidies to WPC facilities or subsidies combined with specific energy price policies could be a way to foster WPC provision. In contrast measures on the employee side that may help to stimulate the demand for WPC turn out to be less feasible. Hence, our results suggest that in order to promote WPC it is more promising to support employers in offering WPC contracts than to provide employees an incentive to accept WPC contracts. The study therefore gives a rationale for public initiatives being undertaken to boost WPC provision, as e.g. in the case of the US.     

Customers’ selections between premium electric taxis and liquefied petroleum gas taxis

Reducing roadside emissions is a common challenge in metropolitan cities. In Hong Kong, conventional liquefied petroleum gas taxis are one of the main contributors to roadside emissions as they operate on the streets 24 h a day with a long daily driving mileage. Moreover, these taxis suffer from a severely poor service reputation. To enhance the environmental friendliness and service quality of the taxi industry, this study explores the market potential of operating premium electric taxis in the dispatching mode. A stated preference survey was conducted to 1410 taxi customers about their taxi-riding choices between premium electric taxis and conventional liquefied petroleum gas taxis. In total, 5640 observations were obtained and used to develop a series of binary logistic regression models with different model formulations for the determination of the significant factors influencing customers’ selections. The findings indicate that walk time to and wait time for taxis were the most critical concerns to the customers, and they were more willing to take premium taxis if their journey distance was longer and their desired improvement on taxi service quality was greater. The socio-demographic status of taxi customers also influences their choices. The associated policy implications are discussed for promoting taxis with better service quality and fewer roadside emissions. The findings provide some policy insights to other international cities that have a similar taxi market to Hong Kong.     

Providing transport for social inclusion within a framework for environmental justice in the UK

This paper examines emerging trends in transport policy in the UK, as identified by the 2004 Transport White Paper and the supporting policy guidance to local transport authorities for addressing social exclusion through local transport provision; accessibility planning. It moves on to identify potential barriers to delivery at the local level and more fundamental challenges, risks and policy tensions. In this context, it critiques UK policies to deliver social equity through transport programmes in light of its Climate Change Agenda and the identified need to significantly reduce traffic levels on UK roads.It identifies the potential synergy between these two policy ambitions, but argues that currently there is a serious policy conflict between these agendas within the UK policy framework. In the light of this conclusion, it offers some key recommendations on the best way forward, which it recommends must be based on the synergistic and integrated delivery of policies for social and environmental equity within the transport sector. It concludes by identifying the key challenges this implies for applied research in this area.     

An interdisciplinary study to explore impacts from policies for the introduction of low carbon vehicles

Driven by concerns of climate change, governments across the world are introducing a number of policies to accelerate the uptake of low carbon vehicles (LCVs), with a specific focus on electric motors. However, there is uncertainty in the effectiveness of such policies and technology pathways, which are inherently interlinked. This article considers the short-term situation to 2020 and focuses on the concern that these policies may bring about some disproportionate impacts in society due to changes in mobility. An ethical framework is established that seeks to balance obligations to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and rights to car ownership, then selected policies are modelled within this framework to assess acceptability of implementation. Although these policies are successful in introducing LCVs and reducing GHG emissions, findings also indicate uneven cost burdens and reduced affordability of car ownership. Following this, recommendations for policy amendments and model improvements are made.