An activity-based assessment of the potential impacts of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles on energy and emissions using 1-day travel data

This paper assesses the potential energy profile impacts of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and estimates gasoline and electricity demand impacts for California of their adoption. The results are based on simulations replicating vehicle usage patterns reported in 1-day activity and travel diaries based on the 2000–2001 California Statewide Household Travel Survey. Four charging scenarios are examined. We find that circuit upgrades to 240 V not only bring faster charging times but also reduce charging time differences between PHEV20 and PHEV60; home charging can potentially service 40–50% of travel distances with electric power for PHEV20 and 70–80% for PHEV60; equipping public parking spaces with charging facilities, can potentially convert 60–70% of mileage from fuel to electricity for PHEV20, and 80–90% for PHEV60; and afternoons are found to be exposed to a higher level of emissions.     

Prospects for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in the United States and Japan: A general equilibrium analysis

The plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) may offer a potential near term, low-carbon alternative to today’s gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles. A representative vehicle technology that runs on electricity in addition to conventional fuels was introduced into the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model as a perfect substitute for internal combustion engine (ICE-only) vehicles in two likely early-adopting markets, the United States and Japan. We investigate the effect of relative vehicle cost and all-electric range on the timing of PHEV market entry in the presence and absence of an advanced cellulosic biofuels technology and a strong (450 ppm) economy-wide carbon constraint. Vehicle cost could be a significant barrier to PHEV entry unless fairly aggressive goals for reducing battery costs are met. If a low-cost PHEV is available we find that its adoption has the potential to reduce CO₂ emissions, refined oil demand, and under a carbon policy the required CO₂ price in both the United States and Japan. The emissions reduction potential of PHEV adoption depends on the carbon intensity of electric power generation. Thus, the technology is much more effective in reducing CO₂ emissions if adoption occurs under an economy-wide cap and trade system that also encourages low-carbon electricity generation.     

Fuel economy improvements for urban driving: Hybrid vs. intelligent vehicles

The quest for more fuel-efficient vehicles is being driven by the increasing price of oil. Hybrid electric powertrains have established a presence in the marketplace primarily based on the promise of fuel savings through the use of an electric motor in place of the internal combustion engine during different stages of driving. However, these fuel savings associated with hybrid vehicle operation come at the tradeoff of a significantly increased initial vehicle cost due to the increased complexity of the powertrain. On the other hand, telematics-enabled vehicles may use a relatively cheap sensor network to develop information about the traffic environment in which they are operating, and subsequently adjust their drive cycle to improve fuel economy based on this information – thereby representing ‘intelligent’ use of existing powertrain technology to reduce fuel consumption. In this paper, hybrid and intelligent technologies using different amounts of traffic flow information are compared in terms of fuel economy over common urban drive cycles. In order to develop a fair comparison between the technologies, an optimal (for urban driving) hybrid vehicle that matches the performance characteristics of the baseline intelligent vehicle is used. The fuel economy of the optimal hybrid is found to have an average of 20% improvement relative to the baseline vehicle across three different urban drive cycles. Feedforward information about traffic flow supplied by telematics capability is then used to develop alternative driving cycles firstly under the assumption there are no constraints on the intelligent vehicle’s path, and then taking into account in the presence of ‘un-intelligent’ vehicles on the road. It is observed that with telematic capability, the fuel economy improvements equal that achievable with a hybrid configuration with as little as 7 s traffic look-ahead capability, and can be as great as 33% improvement relative to the un-intelligent baseline drivetrain. As a final investigation, the two technologies are combined and the potential for using feedforward information from a sensor network with a hybrid drivetrain is discussed.     

Mainstream consumers driving plug-in battery-electric and plug-in hybrid electric cars: A qualitative analysis of responses and evaluations

Plug-in electric vehicles can potentially emit substantially lower CO₂ emissions than internal combustion engine vehicles, and so have the potential to reduce transport emissions without curtailing personal car use. Assessing the potential uptake of these new categories of vehicles requires an understanding of likely consumer responses. Previous in-depth explorations of appraisals and evaluations of electric vehicles have tended to focus on ‘early adopters’, who may not represent mainstream consumers. This paper reports a qualitative analysis of responses to electric cars, based on semi-structured interviews conducted with 40 UK non-commercial drivers (20 males, 20 females; age 24-70 years) at the end of a seven-day period of using a battery electric car (20 participants) or a plug-in hybrid car (20 participants). Six core categories of response were identified: (1) cost minimisation; (2) vehicle confidence; (3) vehicle adaptation demands; (4) environmental beliefs; (5) impression management; and, underpinning all other categories, (6) the perception of electric cars generally as ‘work in progress’ products. Results highlight potential barriers to the uptake of current-generation (2010) plug-in electric cars by mainstream consumers. These include the prioritization of personal mobility needs over environmental benefits, concerns over the social desirability of electric vehicle use, and the expectation that rapid technological and infrastructural developments will make current models obsolete. Implications for the potential uptake of future electric vehicles are discussed.     

Well-to-wheel costs,primary energy demand,and greenhouse gas emissions for the production and operation of conventional and alternative vehicles

This study provides a comprehensive comparison of well-to-wheel (WTW) energy demand, WTW GHG emissions, and costs for conventional ICE and alternative passenger car powertrains, including full electric, hybrid, and fuel cell powertrains. Vehicle production, operation, maintenance, and disposal are considered, along with a range of hydrogen production processes, electricity mixes, ICE fuels, and battery types. Results are determined based on a reference vehicle, powertrain efficiencies, life cycle inventory data, and cost estimations. Powertrain performance is measured against a gasoline ICE vehicle. Energy carrier and battery production are found to be the largest contributors to WTW energy demand, GHG emissions, and costs; however, electric powertrain performance is highly sensitive to battery specific energy. ICE and full hybrid vehicles using alternative fuels to gasoline, and fuel cell vehicles using natural gas hydrogen production pathways, are the only powertrains which demonstrate reductions in all three evaluation categories simultaneously (i.e., WTW energy demand, emissions, and costs). Overall, however, WTW emission reductions depend more on the energy carrier production pathway than on the powertrain; hence, alternative energy carriers to gasoline for an ICE-based fleet (including hybrids) should be emphasized from a policy perspective in the short-term. This will ease the transition towards a low-emission fleet in Switzerland.     

The impact of car specifications,prices and incentives for battery electric vehicles in Norway: Choices of heterogeneous consumers

Electric vehicles (EVs), specifically Battery EVs (BEVs), can offer significant energy and emission savings over internal combustion engine vehicles. Norway has a long history of research and government incentives for BEVs. The BEV market in Norway allows us to fully examine consumers’ BEV choices influenced by car specifications, prices and government incentives (public bus lanes access, toll waiver and charging stations). The Random-Coefficient Discrete Choice Model (referred to as the BLP model) is applied to understand the choices of heterogeneous personal consumers and business buyers. Our study is instantiated on the entire EV sales data in Norway from 2011 to 2013, as well as a set of demographics at the municipality level. The results suggest significant positive effects of BEV technology improvement, space, toll waiver and charging station density on EV demand for both personal consumers and business buyers. However, the effects on business buyers may be generally less pronounced than on personal consumers. Interestingly, bus lanes access demonstrates a negative impact for personal consumers, possibly due to consumers’ concern regarding bus lane congestion. In addition, preferences on the BEV price can vary statistically among consumers with different income levels. Compared to the BEV technology development, demographical features and municipal incentives may have generally less impacts on market shares within the BEV market.     

Structure and influencing factors of CO2 emissions from transport sector in three major metropolitan regions of China: estimation and decomposition

Transportation - The three metropolitan regions, including Jing-Jin-Ji (JJJ), Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and Pearl River Delta (PRD), are the most developed regions of China. This study focuses on...     

Modeling NOx and NO2 emissions from mobile sources: A case study for Hamilton, Ontario, Canada

This study characterizes the dispersion of emissions of oxides of nitrogen and nitrogen dioxide from traffic sources in the Hamilton census metropolitan area. The Integrated Model of Urban Landuse and Transportation for Environmental Analysis software was used to estimate emissions of oxides of nitrogen from traffic sources. The Air Pollution Model, was used to simulate dispersion of the traffic emissions over the city. The models account for the two primary wind directions in this region – the prevailing southwest and a secondary northeast direction. The results show a prominent triangle of high pollution defined by major roads and highways along the periphery of the Hamilton Harbour, at peak-hour. With southwest winds, residential areas along the northern shoreline of the Harbour are affected, while the western sections of the city are affected by northeast winds. High concentrations are persistent in some areas, for both wind directions. The resulting dispersion surfaces characterize the spatial distribution of traffic emissions and thus provide a means of assessing population exposure over the Hamilton area.     

Expanding scope of hybrid choice models allowing for mixture of social influences and latent attitudes: Application to intended purchase of electric cars

Recently, policy makers’ expectations about the role of electric cars in reducing emissions have risen substantially. In parallel, academic research on purchase intentions has dramatically increased. Originally, most studies have focused on utility attributes and price. More recently, several hybrid choice models have been estimated to include the impact of attitudes on choice probabilities. In addition, a few studies have caught the attention to social influence. In contributing to this line of research, this paper reports the results of an expanded hybrid choice, which simultaneously estimated all these different effects in a single integrated model of purchase intention. Results indicate that the model performs well. Costs considerations contribute most to the utility of electric cars. Social influence is less important, but there is also evidence that people tend to take it into consideration when there are positive public opinions about electric cars and the market share becomes almost half of friends of their social network. The intention to purchase an electric car is also influenced by attitudes about environmental concerns and technology acceptance.     

Man and his transport behaviour. Part 2c Planning as a substitute for implementation: a bicycle case study

Abstract

Researchers, planners and politicians alike have emphasized the need for systematic planning prior to the introduction of new transportation measures and schemes. Innovations ranging from the construction of new freeways to the encouragement of mode shift are therefore usually the result of detailed studies and extensive planning.

With unsettling frequency, however, the planning has come to replace implementation. The governing body identifies a problem area and commissions either a government planning department or a consultant to develop a plan which outlines needs and proposes measures which address the problem. The problem usually has two groups of people anxious to solve it; individuals who are being affected in their day‐to‐day living or travel, and longer‐term planners (usually politicians) who see it in terms of both extended community planning and votes.

The plan satisfies both sides temporarily, but becomes an effective planning tool only if implemented. Unrealistic plans and unwilling implementors have left a trail of plans which have been ends in themselves. Examples from bicycle planning in Australia show how the use of plan formulation can be either an essential element leading to the implementation of a planning scheme, or an expensive substitute for positive action.

A feature of plans which have been implemented is an integrated approach which makes extensive use of data collection to ascertain the needs of the population. A feature of the unimplemented plans is their concentration on the feasibility of introducing physical elements into the transport infrastructure without studying the travel demand.

It is concluded that the greater the concentration on individual needs and constraints, the less likely that planning will come to replace the implementation of a scheme.     

武隆隧道2#、3#岩溶暗河探测及施工地质条件分析

武隆隧道为渝怀铁路第二长大隧道,岩溶发育是本隧道的最主要特征之一.尤涫?#和3#岩溶暗河,为本隧道最复杂、最困难的地质条件,多次出现大型～特大型岩溶涌水,给隧道施工造成无法抗拒的自然灾害和经济损失.作者详细介绍了2#和3#岩溶暗河的探测技术,并根据探测结果提出岩溶暗河处理措施和建议.     

Correlation between automotive CO, HC, NO, and PM emission factors from on-road remote sensing: implications for inspection and maintenance programs

Carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbon (HC), and nitrogen oxide (NO) emission factors (EFs) are measured with a commercial vehicle emissions remote sensing system (VERSS) during a large-scale vehicle exhaust emissions study in Las Vegas. Particulate matter (PM) EFs are simultaneously measured for individual vehicles with a newly developed PM-VERSS based on ultraviolet backscatter light detection and ranging (Lidar). The effectiveness of CO and HC EFs as proxy for NO and PM EFs for spark-ignition vehicles is evaluated. Poor correlations were found between EFs for pollutants on an individual vehicle basis indicating that high EFs for one or more pollutants cannot be used as a predictor of high EFs for other pollutants. Stronger functional relationships became evident after averaging the EF data in bins based on rank-order of a single pollutant EF. Low overlap between the highest 10% emitters for CO, HC, NO, and PM was found. These results imply that for an effective reduction of the four pollutants, inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs, including clean screening, should measure all four pollutants individually. Fleet average CO and HC concentrations determined by gaseous VERSS were compared with fleet average CO and HC concentrations measured at low-idle and at high-idle during local I/M tests for spark-ignition vehicles. The fleet average CO concentrations measured by I/M tests at either idle were about half of those measured by remote sensing. The fleet average high-idle HC concentration measured by I/M tests was about half of that measured by VERSS while low-idle I/M and VERSS HC average concentrations were in better agreement. For a typical vehicle trip, most of the fuel is burned during non-idle conditions. I/M measurements collected during idling conditions may not be a good indicator of a vehicle’s potential to be a high emitter. VERSS measurements, when the vehicle is under a load, should more effectively identify high emitting vehicles that have a large contribution to the mobile emissions inventory.     

Combining technology development and behaviour change to meet CO2 cumulative emission budgets for road transport: Case studies for the USA and Europe

Global temperature rise over the long term will be proportional to the total amount of CO₂ emitted. Any given probability of exceeding a targeted maximum temperature rise implies a maximum limit on the cumulative total of CO₂ that can be emitted: a CO₂ “budget”. This paper describes an approach to modelling cumulative emissions from light and heavy duty road transport from the present to 2050, focussing on the USA and Europe, and comparing the potential impacts of a range of technological and behaviourally-based abatement measures with such cumulative emissions budgets.The model shows that abatement measures would have a lower effect on cumulative emissions from 2000 to 2050 than on annual emissions in 2050, so that focussing only on annual emissions could be misleading. It shows that technological developments would be insufficient on their own to enable Europe and the USA to meet CO₂ budgets for road transport. Behavioural changes, which potentially can be implemented much sooner, would be essential too. There is potential to keep European light duty emissions very close to CO₂ budgets, and US light duty emissions not far above the least restrictive budget, but the model predicts that heavy duty emissions in both regions are likely to exceed their CO₂ budgets. Deeper emissions reductions in other regions and sectors will be needed to compensate for this. Timing would be critical: for the greatest impact, behaviour change policies and interventions would need to be applied early and deeply.