What is the market potential of plug-in electric vehicles as commercial passenger cars? A case study from Germany

Commercial passenger cars are a possible early market segment for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). Compared to privately owned vehicles, the commercial vehicle segment is characterized by higher mileage and a higher share of vehicle sales in Germany. To this point, there are only few studies which analyze the commercial passenger car sector and arrive at contradictory results due to insufficient driving profile data with an observation period of only one day. Here, we calculate the market potential of PEVs for the German commercial passenger car sector by determining the technical and economical potential for PEVs in 2020 from multi-day driving profiles. We find that commercial vehicles are better suited for PEVs than private ones since they show higher average annual mileage and drive more regularly. About 87% of the analyzed three-week vehicle profiles can technically be fulfilled by battery electric vehicles (BEVs) with an electric driving range of about 110 km while plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) with an electric range of 40 km could obtain an electric driving share of 60% on average. In moderate energy price scenarios, PEVs can reach a market share of 2–4% in the German commercial passenger car sales by 2020 and especially the large commercial branches (Trade, Manufacturing, Administrative services and Other services) are important. However, our analysis shows a high sensitivity of results to energy and battery prices as well as electric consumptions.     

Retrofitted plug-in hybrid vehicles: Results of NYIT drive share program

This paper presents results from a plug-in hybrid vehicle drive share program involving retrofitted hybrid electric vehicles. A potential for high fuel efficiency is indicated, however, the average fuel efficiency was only marginally better than conventional hybrid vehicles. This is due to the majority of vehicle miles traveled occurring on trips outside the “all electric” range and very short trips where fuel consumption is dominated by emissions control strategies. The work also considers the availability of the battery for vehicle to grid services and finds that there are a large number of trips in the afternoon period, typically when electrical demand is at a peak. Vehicle charging activity also tended towards daytime activity, contrary to the oft-assumed off-peak charging pattern.     

Prospects for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in the United States and Japan: A general equilibrium analysis

The plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) may offer a potential near term, low-carbon alternative to today’s gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles. A representative vehicle technology that runs on electricity in addition to conventional fuels was introduced into the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model as a perfect substitute for internal combustion engine (ICE-only) vehicles in two likely early-adopting markets, the United States and Japan. We investigate the effect of relative vehicle cost and all-electric range on the timing of PHEV market entry in the presence and absence of an advanced cellulosic biofuels technology and a strong (450 ppm) economy-wide carbon constraint. Vehicle cost could be a significant barrier to PHEV entry unless fairly aggressive goals for reducing battery costs are met. If a low-cost PHEV is available we find that its adoption has the potential to reduce CO₂ emissions, refined oil demand, and under a carbon policy the required CO₂ price in both the United States and Japan. The emissions reduction potential of PHEV adoption depends on the carbon intensity of electric power generation. Thus, the technology is much more effective in reducing CO₂ emissions if adoption occurs under an economy-wide cap and trade system that also encourages low-carbon electricity generation.     

How experience of use influences mass-market drivers’ willingness to consider a battery electric vehicle: A randomised controlled trial

Uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) by consumers could reduce CO₂ emissions from light duty road transport, but little is known about how mass-market consumer drivers will respond to them. Self-Congruity theory proposes that products are preferred whose symbolic meanings are congruent with personal identity. Further, Construal Level theory suggests that only those who are psychologically close to a new product category through direct experience with it can make concrete construals related to their lifestyles; most drivers lack this for EVs. For instance, potential performance benefits of EVs might offset range limitations for consumers who have such direct experience. The effect of direct experience was tested in a randomised controlled trial with 393 mass-market consumer drivers. An experimental group were given direct experience of a modern battery electric vehicle (BEV), and a control group an equivalent conventional car. Despite rating the performance of the BEV more highly than that of the conventional car, willingness to consider a BEV declined after experience, particularly if the range of the BEV considered was short. The participants willing to consider a short-range BEV were those high in self-congruity, for whom the BEV could act as a strong symbol of personal identity.     

An activity-based assessment of the potential impacts of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles on energy and emissions using 1-day travel data

This paper assesses the potential energy profile impacts of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and estimates gasoline and electricity demand impacts for California of their adoption. The results are based on simulations replicating vehicle usage patterns reported in 1-day activity and travel diaries based on the 2000–2001 California Statewide Household Travel Survey. Four charging scenarios are examined. We find that circuit upgrades to 240 V not only bring faster charging times but also reduce charging time differences between PHEV20 and PHEV60; home charging can potentially service 40–50% of travel distances with electric power for PHEV20 and 70–80% for PHEV60; equipping public parking spaces with charging facilities, can potentially convert 60–70% of mileage from fuel to electricity for PHEV20, and 80–90% for PHEV60; and afternoons are found to be exposed to a higher level of emissions.     

Intent to purchase a plug-in electric vehicle: A survey of early impressions in large US cites

This paper examines consumer stated intent to purchase plug-in electric vehicles and assesses the factors that increase or decrease interest. We surveyed adult drivers in large US cities in early fall 2011, before vehicle manufacturers and dealers began marketing campaigns. The survey responses thus document early impressions of this transport technology. We find that, given current battery technology and public perceptions, overall stated intent to purchase or lease electric vehicles is low. Interest in plug-in hybrid technology is somewhat greater than interest in all-electric technology. Consumers who express early interest in adopting electric vehicles are typically highly educated, previous owners of conventional hybrids, environmentally sensitive, and concerned about dependence on foreign oil. Enhanced fuel economy, the primary tangible advantage of plug-in technology, is recognized as favorable by respondents but fails to exert a strong influence on purchasing intentions. Interest in plug-in electric vehicles is shaped primarily by consumers’ perceptions of electric vehicle disadvantages.     

Six years of CO2-based tax incentives for new passenger cars in The Netherlands: Impacts on purchasing behavior trends and CO2 effectiveness

There is growing evidence that consumers respond more effectively to upfront price signals, such as vehicle purchase taxes and feebate policies, and to tax incentives that are more salient than others, such as company car taxes graded by CO₂ emissions. This paper examines tax changes in The Netherlands, which are among the most stringent and most salient in Europe, and assesses the ex-post purchasing impacts and CO₂ effectiveness of six years of CO₂-based tax incentives for low-carbon cars in The Netherlands. Dutch tax incentives resulted in 13 g/km, or 11% lower average CO₂ emissions in 2013. The Netherlands has moved from the 12th position before the tax changes in 2007 to become Europe’s number one in terms of the lowest average new car CO₂ emissions and highest share of electric vehicles in 2013. Tax incentives for new cars sold between 2008 and 2013 have resulted in 4.6 million tons of potential lifetime CO₂ abatement at the cost of a drop in tax revenues of 30–50%. However, when corrected for the Dutch policy-induced increasing real-world fuel-economy shortfall and leakage of carbon reduction potential through vehicle export of low-carbon cars, only 3.5 million tons or 75% of the CO₂ reduction remains. CO₂-based tax incentives for company cars seem to have contributed the most to the observed turnaround in purchasing behavior towards lower CO₂-emitting passenger cars.     

Hybrid- and battery-electric vehicles offer low-cost climate benefits in China

Car ownership in China is expected to grow dramatically in the coming decades. If growing personal vehicle demand is met with conventional cars, the increase in greenhouse gas emissions will be substantial. One way to mitigate carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from passenger travel is to meet growing demand for cars with alternative vehicles such as hybrid- and battery-electric vehicles (HEVs and BEVs). Our study examines the cost-effectiveness of transitioning from conventional cars to HEVs and BEVs, by calculating their marginal abatement cost (MAC) of carbon in the long-run. We find that transitioning from conventional to hybrid and battery electric light-duty, four-wheel vehicles can achieve carbon emissions reductions at a negative cost (i.e. at a net benefit) in China. In 2030, the average MAC is estimated to be about −$140/ton CO₂ for HEVs and −$515/ton CO₂-saved for BEVs, varying by key parameters. The total mitigation potential of each vehicle technology is estimated to be 1.38 million tons for HEVs and 0.75 million tons for BEVs.     

Will subsidies drive electric vehicle adoption? Measuring consumer preferences in the U.S. and China

We model consumer preferences for conventional, hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV), and battery electric (BEV) vehicle technologies in China and the U.S. using data from choice-based conjoint surveys fielded in 2012–2013 in both countries. We find that with the combined bundle of attributes offered by vehicles available today, gasoline vehicles continue in both countries to be most attractive to consumers, and American respondents have significantly lower relative willingness-to-pay for BEV technology than Chinese respondents. While U.S. and Chinese subsidies are similar, favoring vehicles with larger battery packs, differences in consumer preferences lead to different outcomes. Our results suggest that with or without each country’s 2012–2013 subsidies, Chinese consumers are willing to adopt today’s BEVs and mid-range PHEVs at similar rates relative to their respective gasoline counterparts, whereas American consumers prefer low-range PHEVs despite subsidies. This implies potential for earlier BEV adoption in China, given adequate supply. While there are clear national security benefits for adoption of BEVs in China, the local and global social impact is unclear: With higher electricity generation emissions in China, a transition to BEVs may reduce oil consumption at the expense of increased air pollution and/or greenhouse gas emissions. On the other hand, demand from China could increase global incentives for electric vehicle technology development with the potential to reduce emissions in countries where electricity generation is associated with lower emissions.     

How might potential future plug-in electric vehicle buyers differ from current “Pioneer” owners?

The entry of various plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) into the passenger vehicle sector provides novel opportunities to learn about the potential for future PEV markets. However, early PEV buyers (or “Pioneers”) can substantially differ from present conventional vehicle owners that have interest in purchasing PEVs in the future (or the “Potential Early Mainstream buyers”). To compare the characteristics, preferences, and motivations of Pioneers and Potential Early Mainstream buyers, we draw data from the Canadian Plug-in Electric Vehicle Study, a three-part mixed-mode survey with samples of PEV owners (n = 94) and conventional new vehicle buyers (n = 1754). We identify several significant differences in household characteristics, including income, education, and recharge access. In terms of preferences, Pioneers express extremely high valuation of PEVs and prefer pure battery electric vehicle (BEV) designs over plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) designs. In contrast, Potential Early Mainstream respondents prefer PHEVs. Both Pioneer and Potential Early Mainstream respondents are similarly cautious about controlled charging programs, but Pioneers place five times as much value on using electricity generated from renewable sources than the Potential Early Mainstream. Pioneers also tend to have different motivations, including significantly higher levels of environmental concern, and higher engagement in environment- and technology-oriented lifestyles. Policymakers, automakers, and electric utilities that anticipate a transition to electric mobility ought to consider how potential future PEV buyers may differ in their vehicle preferences, usage and motivations relative to current PEV owners.     

Using GPS-data to determine optimum electric vehicle ranges: A Michigan case study

Fuel-switching personal transportation from gasoline to electricity offers many advantages, including lower noise, zero local air pollution, and petroleum-independence. But alleviations of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are more nuanced, due to many factors, including the car’s battery range. We use GPS-based trip data to determine use type-specific, GHG-optimized ranges. The dataset comprises 412 cars and 384,869 individual trips in Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA. We use previously developed algorithms to determine driver types, such as using the car to commute or not. Calibrating an existing life cycle GHG model to a forecast, low-carbon grid for Ann Arbor, we find that the optimum range varies not only with the drive train architecture (plugin-hybrid versus battery-only) and charging technology (fast versus slow) but also with the driver type. Across the 108 scenarios we investigated, the range that yields lowest GHG varies from 65 km (55+ year old drivers, ultrafast charging, plugin-hybrid) to 158 km (16–34 year old drivers, overnight charging, battery-only). The optimum GHG reduction that electric cars offer – here conservatively measured versus gasoline-only hybrid cars – is fairly stable, between 29% (16–34 year old drivers, overnight charging, battery-only) and 46% (commuters, ultrafast charging, plugin-hybrid). The electrification of total distances is between 66% and 86%. However, if cars do not have the optimum range, these metrics drop substantially. We conclude that matching the range to drivers’ typical trip distances, charging technology, and drivetrain is a crucial pre-requisite for electric vehicles to achieve their highest potential to reduce GHG emissions in personal transportation.     

Effects of battery chemistry and performance on the life cycle greenhouse gas intensity of electric mobility

Lithium traction batteries are a key enabling technology for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). Traction battery manufacture contributes to vehicle production emissions, and battery performance can have significant effects on life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for PEVs. To assess emissions from PEVs, a life cycle perspective that accounts for vehicle production and operation is needed. However, the contribution of batteries to life cycle emissions hinge on a number of factors that are largely absent from previous analyses, notably the interaction of battery chemistry alternatives and the number of electric vehicle kilometers of travel (e-VKT) delivered by a battery. We compare life cycle GHG emissions from lithium-based traction batteries for vehicles using a probabilistic approach based on 24 hypothetical vehicles modeled on the current US market. We simulate life-cycle emissions for five commercial lithium chemistries. Examining these chemistries leads to estimates of emissions from battery production of 194–494 kg CO₂ equivalent (CO₂e) per kWh of battery capacity. Combined battery production and fuel cycle emissions intensity for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles is 226–386 g CO₂e/e-VKT, and for all-electric vehicles 148–254 g CO₂e/e-VKT. This compares to emissions for vehicle operation alone of 140–244 g CO₂e/e-VKT for grid-charged electric vehicles. Emissions estimates are highly dependent on the emissions intensity of the operating grid, but other upstream factors including material production emissions, and operating conditions including battery cycle life and climate, also affect life cycle GHG performance. Overall, we find battery production is 5–15% of vehicle operation GHG emissions on an e-VKT basis.     

Market introduction strategies for alternative powertrains in long-range passenger cars under competition

Alternative powertrains are considered as a promising option to significantly reduce CO₂ emissions from passenger cars. One major prerequisite is their successful market introduction. In this paper, we present a system dynamics model that allows for the evaluation of strategies for the market introduction of alternative powertrain technologies in long-range passenger cars (⩾400 km) under competition. The model considers two competing manufacturers, one first-mover and one follower, each introducing plug-in hybrids and fuel cell electric vehicles according to exogenously defined strategies, which comprise timing, pricing, and technology parameters. The manufacturers can learn from each other due to technology spillover, leading to cost reductions of the powertrains. We use an exemplary dataset for the German car market to study the manufacturers’ influence on the market success of alternative powertrains as well as the underlying mechanisms. The results indicate that in general more competition leads to higher market shares of alternatively powered vehicles and thus allows for a higher reduction of emissions. However, this might cause decreasing profits for both manufacturers, especially if the follower pursues an aggressive pricing strategy when entering the market to gain market shares from its competitor. Also, technology spillover has a positive effect on the market penetration. This particularly holds true for a low level of technology experience where high cost reductions can be achieved and for fuel cell electric vehicles where the costs of the powertrain are much higher compared to plug-in hybrids.     

Are multi-car households better suited for battery electric vehicles? – Driving patterns and economics in Sweden and Germany

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) could reduce CO₂ emissions from the transport sector but their limited electric driving range diminishes their utility to users. The effect of the limited driving range can be reduced in multi-car households where users could choose between a BEV and a conventional car for long-distance travel. However, to what extent the driving patterns of different cars in a multi-car household’s suit the characteristics of a BEV needs further analysis. In this paper we analyse the probability of daily driving above a fixed threshold for conventional cars in current Swedish and German car driving data. We find second cars in multi-car households to require less adaptation and to be better suited for BEV adoption compared to first cars in multi-car households as well as to cars in single-car households. Specifically, the share of second cars that could fulfil all their driving is 20 percentage points higher compared to first cars and cars from single-car households. This result is stable against variation of driving range and of the tolerated number of days requiring adaptation. Furthermore, the range needed to cover all driving needs for about 70% of the vehicles is only 220 km for second cars compared to 390 km for the average car. We can further confirm that second cars have higher market viability from a total cost of ownership perspective. Here, the second cars achieve a 10 percentage points higher market share compared to first cars, and to cars in single-car households for Swedish economic conditions, while for Germany the corresponding figure is 2 percentage points. Our results are important for understanding the market viability of current and near-future BEVs.     

Impacts of driving patterns on tank-to-wheel energy use of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles

We evaluate the implications of a range of driving patterns on the tank-to-wheel energy use of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. The driving patterns, which reflect short distance, low speed, and congested city driving to long distance, high speed, and uncongested highway driving, are estimated using an approach that involves linked traffic assignment and vehicle motion models. We find substantial variation in tank-to-wheel energy use of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles across driving patterns. Tank-to-wheel petroleum energy use on a per kilometer basis is lowest for the city and highest for the highway driving, with the opposite holding for a conventional internal combustion engine vehicle.     

International private and public reinforcing dependencies for the innovation of automotive emission control systems in Japan and USA

In the beginning of the 1970s, the economies of USA and Japan were growing fast and environmental pollution was increasing to alarming levels. As passenger car emissions were found to be significant and rapidly increasing, their reduction was specially targeted. Following a bill passed by US Congress in 1968, requirements were set in 1970 for the vehicle manufacturers to reduce the emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbons (HC) with 90% by 1975, and nitrogen oxides (NO_x) with 90% by 1976. These requirements were soon adapted to the Japanese regulatory framework, and were known in both countries as the “Muskie Act” or “Muskie Law” after the senator who developed the original bill.The new requirements spurred tremendous research and development efforts. Car manufacturers and research institutions in USA, Japan and Europe investigated and developed alternative solutions, including gas turbine and steam engine vehicles. California, the USA state with the most severe air quality problems and the only state at the time allowed to establish more strict requirements than federal regulation, established requirements implying the use of oxidation catalysts in 1975 and three-way catalysts (TWC’s) in 1977. Japan as a nation adopted similar requirements 1976 and 1978. Export of cars from Japan to USA increased rapidly. The rest of USA adopted emission standards similar to California’s only in 1981, timing USA vehicle sales rebound after the energy crisis and grave economic downturn. Strict requirements were thus established only after more than a decade of civic and legal processes between federal authorities, the car manufacturers and NGO’s.The history of vehicle development is one of cooperation and competition. This paper argues that the international cooperation on different levels of society (government, industry and science) together with commercial competition between the two countries was strong, continuous and instrumental in enabling the development of technology, appropriate regulation and infrastructural changes and thus created a market for cleaner cars and effectively reduced emissions from the growing vehicle fleet. In other words, the introduction of TWCs was reinforced by the simultaneous development of mitigating technology in two car producing countries competing for market space.     

Electric vehicles in car sharing networks – Challenges and simulation model analysis

In this paper, we examine the operation of electric vehicles in urban car sharing networks. After surveying strategic and operational differences and comparing them to gasoline-fueled cars, a simulation study was carried out. The proposed discrete event simulation tool covered important operational characteristics of electric vehicles, including realistic charging routines. Different vehicle types were compared under various conditions and on multiple markets to determine their performance. The data obtained indicated the competitiveness of electric vehicles in car sharing networks. Key success factors included advantageous relations between the market environment (e.g. electricity and fuel prices) and important characteristics of electric cars (e.g. price and range).     

Public charging infrastructure for plug-in electric vehicles: What is it worth?

Lack of charging infrastructure is an important barrier to the growth of the plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market. Public charging infrastructure has tangible and intangible value, such as reducing range anxiety or building confidence in the future of the PEV market. Quantifying the value of public charging infrastructure can inform analysis of investment decisions and can help predict the impact of charging infrastructure on future PEV sales. Estimates of willingness to pay (WTP) based on stated preference surveys are limited by consumers’ lack of familiarity with PEVs. As an alternative, we focus on quantifying the tangible value of public PEV chargers in terms of their ability to displace gasoline use for PHEVs and to enable additional electric (e−) vehicle miles for BEVs, thereby mitigating the limitations of shorter range and longer recharging time. Simulation studies provide data that can be used to quantify e-miles enabled by public chargers and the value of additional e-miles can be inferred from econometric estimates of WTP for increased vehicle range. Functions are synthesized that estimate the WTP for public charging infrastructure by plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles, conditional on vehicle range, annual vehicle travel, pre-existing charging infrastructure, energy prices, vehicle efficiency, and household income. A case study based on California’s public charging network in 2017 indicates that, to the purchaser of a new BEV with a 100-mile range and home recharging, existing public fast chargers are worth about $1500 for intraregional travel, and fast chargers along intercity routes are valued at over $6500.     

The market potential for plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles in Flanders: A choice-based conjoint analysis

This paper considers the market potential for battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in Flanders, Belgium. Making use of a large-scale survey conducted in 2011 and applying a choice-based conjoint experiment, it is predicted that by 2020, battery electric vehicles could have a market share of about 5% of new vehicles, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles could have a share of around 7%. By 2030, these figures could increase to 15% and 29%. The speed of up-take of electric vehicles, however, is sensitive to purchase costs.     

China’s electric car frustrations

By 2020, the vehicle population in China will likely exceed 280 million—exacerbating national energy security, urban air pollution, and traffic congestion. In response, many local and regional governments in China are pursuing an expanding array of measures to restrain growth in personal vehicle ownership and, along with the central government, reducing emissions and energy use of vehicles. One prominent strategy is the promotion of new energy vehicles, especially plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). Large subsidies were offered—up to $27,600 (171,000 RMB) per vehicle in some regions, including almost $9200 (57,000 RMB) from the central government—which suggests that China is making a major commitment to PEVs. But sales have been meager. In 2013, only 17,600 PEVs, mostly buses and utility trucks, were sold, less than 0.1% of total civilian vehicle sales. Several factors explain the failure of PEV sales to take off: (1) protectionism by local governments; (2) uncertainty over which electric-drive vehicle technologies to promote and what consumers are willing to pay, (3) lagging investments in charging infrastructure, and (4) conservative investment behavior by automakers and battery manufacturers. The central government issued directives to local governments in late 2013 to reduce barriers to out-of-town companies, resulting in modest sales increases in early 2014, but a more coherent, broader, and effective set of policies, incentives, and strategies are needed to overcome consumer and industry resistance and the lack of charging infrastructure.