Development of ocean carriers' behaviour model focusing on their 'cost and tariff' based on the spatial general equilibrium

Spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) theory has been applied to an international trade model to evaluate tariff and fiscal policies of a country. Those models can not be applied for the evaluation of transport policies such as port development and tax/subsidy policy against transportation sectors, since they do not deal with ocean freight and ocean carriers explicitly in the model. Ocean freight often varies with the changes of competitive conditions and/or demand/ supply balances in the short run, while it should reflect the actual expenditure of the carriers in the long run. The model proposed here considers the profit maximization behaviour of ocean carriers, and deals with ocean freight explicitly. The model is applied to four major economic regions; Japan, USA, EU and Asia. A multi-level function composed of the Cobb-Douglas function is adopted to produce reliable parameters of the production function for many industries.     

Spatial efficiency in the bulk freight market

In the short run, there can be substantial differences in spot freight earnings between geographical regions of the global freight market for bulk carriers. Such differences can be consistent with an efficient market if they are temporary and if they cannot be exploited financially by pursuing chartering strategies that are based on publicly available information. In this paper, we apply a simple optimal switching model to evaluate whether such chartering strategies exist. We model the spot freight rate differential between the Atlantic and Pacific basins as a mean-reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process and the entry–exit decision using the discount factor approach, which results in optimal trigger values for the entry/exit from each basin. Our empirical results suggest that the market is spatially efficient during normal freight market conditions when there is a surplus of vessels. The tight market conditions during the 2003–2008 freight market boom caused a persistent upward bias in Atlantic freight rates, but also here we find little added value from pursuing an active switching strategy.     

Discipline in British merchant ships

This paper describes a model which may be used in the evaluation of the relative effectiveness of policies used in the areas of ship chartering and the switching of combined carriers between the dry-cargo market and the tanker market. The policies for chartering and market switiching are expressed in the form of ‘desired proportions’ of the fleet operating in a particular charter-mode or a particular market. Graphical illustration of this form of expression of policies can be easily understood, so that alternative policies can be designed with relative case. The effectiveness of a particular from of policy under various freight market conditions can be determined from the model, the use of which is illustrated by its application to the deployment of the fleet of an hypothetical shipping company. It is assumed that the feedback connection between the company's actions and the market-place is negligible.     

A model for the evaluation of some shipping company decisions

This paper describes a model which may be used in the evaluation of the relative effectiveness of policies used in the areas of ship chartering and the switching of combined carriers between the dry-cargo market and the tanker market. The policies for chartering and market switiching are expressed in the form of 'desired proportions' of the fleet operating in a particular charter-mode or a particular market. Graphical illustration of this form of expression of policies can be easily understood, so that alternative policies can be designed with relative case. The effectiveness of a particular from of policy under various freight market conditions can be determined from the model, the use of which is illustrated by its application to the deployment of the fleet of an hypothetical shipping company. It is assumed that the feedback connection between the company's actions and the market-place is negligible.     

The role of US ocean Ports in promoting an efficient ocean transportation system

This paper investigates wheather the actions of US ocean ports (since the passage of the Shipping Act of 1984) are supportive of the promotion of an efficient transportation system for US ocean commerce. In the short run, US ocean ports have generally been supportive of this efficiency goal;competiton among US ocean ports has has increased as is evident by the significant reduction that has occurred in port natural hinterlands. In the long run, port sunk costs, consolidations and cooperative activities, and long-term leases with ocean carriers are likely to be non-supportive of the efficiency goal.     

Containerization, inter-port competition, and port selection

This paper explores the criteria shippers employ in the port selection process. By focusing on the containerized traffic between the North American Mid-West and Western Europe, the factors considered by exporters and freight forwarders are examined. The findings suggest that decision-makers are influenced more by price and service considerations of land and ocean carriers than by perceived differences in the ports of entry and exit. Port infrastructures do not appear to play an important role in the routeing decisions made by an important group of independent businesses involved in the North Atlantic container trade.     

Modelling forward freight rate dynamics—empirical evidence from time charter rates

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamics of forward freight rate dynamics. We specify our model in a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework. This model was originally developed for interest rate markets and, in subsequent work, the model has been applied to various commodity markets. We analyse ten years of weekly time charter (TC) rates for a Panamax 65,000 dwt bulk carrier. Our data set consists of 6-, 12- and 36-month TC rates. We use this data to construct, each day, a forward rate function using a smoothing algorithm. We use the smooth data to investigate the factors governing the dynamics of the forward freight rate curve. We find a strange volatility structure in the data. Out results show that the volatility of the forward curve is bumped, with volatility reaching a peak for freight rates with roughly one year to maturity. Also, correlations between different parts of the term structure are in general low and even negative.     

The impact of port choice on inland transportation

The Belgian government intends to shift part of its funding away from Antwerp and towards other seaports, particularly Ghent and Zeebrugge. In the long run, this policy change will undoubtedly influence the port choice and probably cause a traffic diversion at the expense of Antwerp. This will have a great influence on the structure of inland transportation.

The impact of port choice on inland transportation is the central theme of this paper. To this end a disaggregated model of the demand for freight transport is constructed.     

Modelling forward freight rate dynamics—empirical evidence from time charter rates

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamics of forward freight rate dynamics. We specify our model in a Heath–Jarrow–Morton framework. This model was originally developed for interest rate markets and, in subsequent work, the model has been applied to various commodity markets. We analyse ten years of weekly time charter (TC) rates for a Panamax 65,000?dwt bulk carrier. Our data set consists of 6-, 12- and 36-month TC rates. We use this data to construct, each day, a forward rate function using a smoothing algorithm. We use the smooth data to investigate the factors governing the dynamics of the forward freight rate curve. We find a strange volatility structure in the data. Out results show that the volatility of the forward curve is bumped, with volatility reaching a peak for freight rates with roughly one year to maturity. Also, correlations between different parts of the term structure are in general low and even negative.     

乌江银盘水电站通航建筑物建设规模优化研究

根据银盘水电站工程河段航运条件和近几年乌江实际发生的货运量,采用灰色系统模型,对船闸设计水平年内的客货运量增长情况进行了预测,并结合该河段代表船型和合理的运输组织,对银盘水电站通航船闸建设规模进行了优化研究,提出了既满足设计水平年内运量增长需要、又节省工程投资的船闸建设方案,研究成果已为工程建设采用。     

A model system for the ex-ante assessment of city logistics measures

This paper proposes a model system developed in order to support ex-ante assessment of city logistics measures. The model system allows us to simulate the choices of each decision-maker involved in the urban freight transport and logistics and to investigate how the policies and the following measures can influence her/his choices.The model system is an open architecture and consists of two levels: commodity and vehicle. The commodity level allows us to analyse the attraction and acquisition movements taking into account the effects due to city logistics policy implementation affecting the end-consumer and retailer/wholesaler/producer (restocker) choices. The freight sold in each urban shop (or in general urban business) is estimated starting from consumption demand and, then, the restocker’s choices for restocking are analysed in depth. The vehicle level focuses on the restocking process and the links between retailer and wholesaler/producer operating in the study area. This level allows us to investigate the impacts of implementing city logistics measures on journey time, timing and path used for restocking the urban retail businesses.     

油运费率指数的规律性分析及短期预测

以时间序列统计分析作为基础研究手段,分析了不同类别油运费率指数的运行规律,并应用ARIMA时间序列模型对160000dwt以上的原油运费率指数进行了短期预测,取得了较好的预测效果。     

An optimal containership slot allocation for liner shipping revenue management

In the competitive liner shipping market, carriers may utilize revenue management systems to increase profits by using slot allocation and pricing. In this paper, related research on revenue management for transportation industries is reviewed. A conceptual model for liner shipping revenue management (LSRM) is proposed and a slot allocation model is formulated through mathematical programming to maximize freight contribution. We illustrate this slot allocation model with a case study of a Taiwan liner shipping company and the results show the applicability and better performances than the previous allocation used in practice.     

An optimal containership slot allocation for liner shipping revenue management

In the competitive liner shipping market, carriers may utilize revenue management systems to increase profits by using slot allocation and pricing. In this paper, related research on revenue management for transportation industries is reviewed. A conceptual model for liner shipping revenue management (LSRM) is proposed and a slot allocation model is formulated through mathematical programming to maximize freight contribution. We illustrate this slot allocation model with a case study of a Taiwan liner shipping company and the results show the applicability and better performances than the previous allocation used in practice.     

Evaluation of risk attitude in the shipping freight market under uncertainty

ABSTRACT

The main purpose of this study is to examine how market participants take risks, in other words, what their risk attitude/preference is, and how their risk attitude could be related to the shipping freight and other markets. To address them, we calibrated the risk attitude of participants in shipping freight markets from 2007 to 2013, and provided an example of the application of risk attitude. For market participants, risk attitude/preference has an important role in understanding shipping freight markets and managing risks under uncertainty. However, risk attitude is not directly observable. To achieve this, we applied a framework that consists of structural model and calibration with market data. We interpreted risk attitude and confirmed that a structural break occurred around 2008 for the calibrated risk attitude parameter. The average risk attitude of market participants tended to be more risk-averse after 2010. We conducted an additional analysis to provide an example of the application of calibrated risk attitude, using structural equation modeling to calculate a latent variable that reflected other commodity markets. We compared the risk attitude parameter and the latent variable, and clarified the relationship between the risk attitude parameter and commodity markets.     

Cooperation among freight forwarders: Mode choice and intermodal freight transport

The objective of this paper is to compare vertical and horizontal cooperation among freight forwarders. The paper analyses three freight forwarders (‘players’) with two different means of transportation. The first two players are truck-operating freight forwarders. The third player is a freight forwarder with its own ship. For the purposes of analysis, the paper applied a two-stage game. The results revealed that the best form of cooperation is the one in which the large truck-operating company would establish a coalition with the ship-operating company; that is, vertical cooperation. This cooperation would generate better payoffs in the form of profit, not only to the members of this coalition, but also to the player that has not joined the coalition. However, user surplus is negative in all coalitions, which shows that the establishment of these kinds of cooperation is not beneficial (in terms of prices) for the users of these service providers.     

The comparison of general cargo ship economic performance by simulation

Cargo ship designs offered by shipbuilders differ in characteristics such as deadweight, speed, fuel consumption and cargo equipment. The best vessel for high freight markets and high fuel prices may not be the best for low freight markets and low fuel prices. A model has been developed to compare by simulation a number of multi-purpose general cargo vessels suitable for the trade of a Turkish shipowner. The model simulates the operation of each vessel under a variety of operating scenarios, e.g. fuel prices and freight profiles over the ships' lives, and estimates the distribution of resulting net present values. The techno-economic simulation model incorporates variables including ship size, speed, first cost, fuel consumption, load factor and port days.

Results are presented for six standard vessels of around 20 000 dwt operating over a long and a short route. Although the ranking of the six varies with assumptions, one design is shown to be superior under most operating conditions.     

The coopetition game in international liner shipping

In maritime freight transportation, carriers build collaborative relationships with other carriers while competing with each other to optimize their own profits. In such a scenario, a game of coopetition is formed. We formulate a nonlinear mixed-integer problem to determine the optimal levels of coopetition for a single company and embed the resulting problem into a general game theoretic framework. A diagonalization algorithm that incorporates an ascent direction search technique is developed to effectively evaluate the game. The numerical results show that carriers choose similar coopetition levels to maximize their profits, and the coopetition game can reach equilibrium under general conditions.     

国际货运代理业应当尽快实施收益管理

收益管理作为一项先进的管理技术,在国际货运代理业尚未得到充分应用。现以国际货运代理业中最重要的业务之一——国际集装箱运输代理业务为例,探讨国际货运代理业可否实行收益管理,并从可行性、必要性和紧迫性等三个方面,进行较为详细的分析和论述,得出国际货运代理业开展收益管理不仅是可行的,而且是十分必要的,同时也是急待实施的结论,从而为国际货运代理业实施收益管理提供理论支持。