Bicycling renaissance in North America?: Recent trends and alternative policies to promote bicycling

Over the past two decades, the number of bicycle trips in the United States has doubled. Since 48% of trips by all modes in American cities are shorter than three miles, the potential for further growth in bicycling seems enormous. So far, efforts to promote bicycling have focused on building bike paths and bike lanes. Although necessary, separate cycling facilities must be complemented by a comprehensive program to make all roads bikeable, through both physical adaptations and enforcement of cyclists' right to use the road. It seems likely that cycling will continue to grow in North America, but that its mode share will remain far lower than levels in northern Europe. Bicycling in Canada and especially the United States is impeded by the lack of a tradition of cycling for utilitarian purposes and by the marginal legal, cultural and infrastructure status of cyclists in both countries' automobile-based transport systems. As long as car use remains cheap and transportation policy remains dominated by motoring, bicycles will continue to be used primarily for recreation and not for daily urban travel in North America.     

Transport deregulation and cross‐border trucking in North America

Internationally, recent years have seen a spread of deregulatory policies with respect to transport. Equally, transport movements across national boundaries have expanded as trade has grown. Despite these two quite noticeable trends comparatively little has been written on the problems that are created for cross‐border traffic as the result of differential changes in national regulatory policies. This paper is concerned with looking specifically at what has happened in the context of road freight transport movements across the U.S.‐Canadian border and the wider (especially for the formulation of a Common Transport Policy for the EEC) lessons which can be learned from it.     

Does a high level of multimodality mean less car use? An exploration of multimodality trends in England

Some existing studies have suggested that a higher level of multimodality—the use of more than one transport mode within a given period of time—may be desirable to achieve societies less dependent on cars. The aim of this study was to investigate the trends in individual multimodality in England. In addition, we explored whether these trends were homogenous, i.e. similar between socio-economic characteristics, and whether changes in multimodality corresponded with changes in car use and the use of other transport modes. Our analyses showed that in contrast to reported trends in existing research, the level of multimodality in England decreased between 1995 and 2015. These trends stratified by income were diverging, which may imply that inequality in transport opportunities may be increasing. In contrast, the trends for age and gender were converging. In addition, we found that the car mode share remained fairly stable and absolute car use decreased since 2004, whilst multimodality decreased. This suggests that there is no necessary relationship between aggregate levels of car use and the average individual level of multimodality. Moreover, our analyses showed that these trends were very similarly independent of which indicator was applied. This indicates that for analysing trends in multimodality, the choice of indicator may not be that important, and indicators that are elementary to calculate and easy to interpret, e.g. number of modes used, highlight trends that are highly consistent with more sophisticated metrics. This paper finishes with a discussion of the implications of these findings.

     

A renaissance in understanding technology dynamics? The emerging concept of transition management in transportation

Abstract

For the last five years the technology factor (by which is meant both process and product innovation) has received renewed attention in the transport sector as society is confronted with new challenges. This leads to a call for change and transitions. Technology is considered as a potential answer to new needs and new problems, like the reduction of CO₂ and the supply of alternative energy. It is important that there is a theoretical basis for the way of thinking on innovation and diffusion when it comes to technology dynamics. This paper, based on a literature study, addresses the question to what extent the theory of transition management can be considered as a new application of technology dynamics. The theory of technological innovations in the broad sense is analysed and applied to the transport sector.     

Transportation–land-use interaction: empirical findings in North America,and their implications for modeling

The last two decades have witnessed the implementation of various policies based on land-use to address problems stemming from automobile ownership and use. There are, however, questions with respect to the efficacy of such policies. This paper therefore reviews the literature on empirical studies of the transportation–land-use interaction with the objective of identifying the current state of knowledge concerning the interactions, particularly with respect to the impact land-use policies are likely to have on the system. The focus is on studies conducted in North America. The results are mixed; some studies conclude that urban densities, traditional neighborhood design schemes, and land-use mix have an impact on auto ownership and use. Other studies find the impact of such variables to be at best marginal. Gaps in our understanding of the interaction are identified. These are found to be primarily the result of data limitations and methodological weaknesses. A detailed discussion of the implications of the findings for the development and application of integrated transportation–land-use models is provided, with the recommendation that without such an integrated approach to analyzing the transportation–land-use interaction, any study of impacts of urban form on travel behavior is likely to yield erroneous results.     

Scaling up cycling or replacing driving? Triggers and trajectories of bike–train uptake in the Randstad area

Transportation - The combined use of the bicycle and the train in the Netherlands has risen steadily over the past decade. However, little is yet known about the underlying processes driving the...     

Employer travel plans,cycling and gender: will travel plan measures improve the outlook for cycling to work in the UK?

Cycling is a ‘green’ alternative to commuting by car yet it makes up only a small percentage of journeys in the UK. Here we examine the commuter habits of three companies in Hertfordshire, UK. These provide contrasting case studies allowing examination of travel behaviour in relation to gender and employer travel plans. Women are known to commute shorter distances, yet are less likely to cycle. A variety of cultural and trip characteristics can account for this yet more detailed analysis reveals that some generalisations do not apply. Organisational initiatives to increase cycle commuting were perceived more positively by men than women and this suggests provision of cycling facilities in travel plans will not be effective for organisations employing a large proportion of women. However, this hides a subgroup of women who have access to a cycle and live near enough to cycle who are more positive about cycle facilities. A variety of cultural and societal constraints on cycle use are considered. Measures to encourage cycling in employer travel plans must reflect the gender balance in the organisation as well as recognised geographical and organisational factors.     

Urban freight,parking and pricing policies: An evaluation from a transport providers’ perspective

This paper investigates transport providers’ preferences for alternative loading bays and pricing policies. It estimates the importance of loading bays, the probability of finding them free and offers strategically relevant information to policy makers. The results underline the relevance of both preference heterogeneity and non-linear attribute effects. Three classes of agents are detected with substantially different preferences also characterized by non-linear sensitivity to attribute level variations. The specific freight sector, frequency of accesses and number of employees are all relevant covariates explaining different preferences for alternative transport providers’ categories. The implications of the results obtained are illustrated by simulating alternative policy scenarios. In conclusion, the paper underlines the need for rigorous policy analysis if the correct policy outcomes are to be estimated with an adequate level of accuracy.     

Combining pickups and deliveries in vehicle routing – An assessment of carbon emission effects

This paper studies the effect on carbon emissions of consolidation of shipments on trucks. New positioning and communication technologies, as well as decision support systems for vehicle routing, enable better utilization of vehicle capacity, reduced travel distance, and thereby carbon emission reductions. We present a novel carbon emission analysis method that determines the emission savings obtained by an individual transport provider, who receives customer orders for outbound deliveries as well as pickup orders from supply locations. The transport provider can improve vehicle utilization by performing pickups and deliveries jointly instead of using separate trucks. In our model we assume that the transport provider minimizes costs by use of a tool that calculates detailed vehicle routing plans, i.e., an assignment of each transport order to a specific vehicle in the fleet, and the sequence of customer visit for each vehicle. We compare a basic set-up, in which pickups and deliveries are segregated and performed with separate vehicles, with two consolidation set-ups where pickups and deliveries may be mixed more or less freely on a single vehicle. By allowing mixing, the average vehicle load will increase and the total driven distance will decrease. To compare carbon emissions for the three set-ups, we use a carbon assessment method that uses the distance driven and the average load factor. An increase in the load factor can reduce part of the emission savings from consolidation. We find that emission savings are relatively large in case of small vehicles and for delivery and pickup locations that are relatively far from the depot. However, if a truck visits many demand and supply locations before returning to the depot, we observe negligible carbon emission decreases or even emission increases for consolidation set-ups, meaning that in such cases investing in consolidation through joint pickups and deliveries may not be effective. The results of our study will be useful for transport users and providers, policymakers, as well as vehicle routing technology vendors.     

Working from 9 to 6? An analysis of in-home and out-of-home working schedules

The widespread adoption of information and communication technologies (ICT) and flexible work arrangements have enabled people to schedule their work activities in more flexible ways. New forms of working have already emerged. However, research about flexible work schedules is still scarce. The aim of this study is to determine the factors impacting the propensity to adopt a flexible work schedule, and establish how and to what extent the timing of work is influenced by ICTs, work, and sociodemographic characteristics. The analysis suggests that work-related characteristics and ICT usage seem to be more important for work-schedule flexibility than sociodemographic characteristics are.     

Much Ado about Nothing? - An analysis of economic impacts and ecologic effects of the EU-emission trading scheme in the aviation industry

From 2012 on, all CO₂ emissions from flights departing from or arriving at airports within the European Union have to be offset. We analyze the economic and ecological impacts that are caused by an inclusion of the aviation industry into the proposed emissions trading scheme (ETS). Building on the now fixed system design we employ a simulation model to estimate the impacts of the scheme. Our results indicate that financial impacts are highly dependant on external settings, such as allowance prices and demand growth. We show that the financial burden on the aviation industry will be rather modest in the first years after the introduction of the system and therefore induce only low competition distortions. Likewise, emission reductions within air transportation will be comparably low. While aviation will induce a decline of emissions in other sectors, significant absolute reductions within air transportation can only be reached by a more restrictive system design.     

Measuring reliability of transportation networks using snapshots of movements in the network – An analytical and empirical study

In this paper we introduce an analytical framework based on discrete Likelihood Maximization techniques that provides estimates of operational level data of Queuing models and Transportation networks based on snapshots of data on movements of commodities in a network. We apply our methodology to detailed data on movements of containers imported from S.E. Asian ports to marine ports on the west coast of Canada, unloaded at these ports, moved to rail cars, and transported by rail to destinations in U.S. and Canada. We show how one can estimate operational level parameters such as the number of servers at the ports, schedules of departure and capacity of trains, and even speed of trains based on only snapshots of container movements in the network. Subsequently, we were able to calibrate the entire inter-continental transportation network, were able to identify the sources of variability in the network and were able to measure the reliability of the network to shocks.     

How do they get by without cars? An analysis of travel characteristics of carless households in California

Transportation - In spite of their substantial number in the U.S., our understanding of the travel behavior of households who do not own motor vehicles (labeled “carless” herein) is...     

Comparison of road freight transport trends in Europe. Coupling and decoupling factors from an Input–Output structural decomposition analysis

Decoupling road freight transport from economic growth has been acknowledged by the European Union as a key means to improving sustainability. It is therefore important to identify both the coupling and decoupling drivers of road freight transport demand in order to determine possible factors that may contribute to reduce road transport in the future without curbing economic development. This research proposes an Input–Output (IO) structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to explain road freight transport in terms of a set of key factors that have strongly influenced road freight demand in recent decades in European countries—such as economic growth, economic structure and the evolution of road transport intensity (including improvements in both supply and transport systems). This methodological approach allows us to quantify and compare their contribution in different European countries to either increase or decrease road freight transport demand. The empirical basis for this analysis is a dataset of nine European countries which have IO tables and road transport data available from 2000 to 2007, comprising data on domestic production, imports and exports as well as tonne-kms for 11 types of commodity classes. The results show that, as a whole, aggregate road transport demand has grown—driven mainly by economic activity—but this growth has been strongly curbed in some countries by changes in road freight transport intensity and moderately by the dematerialization of the economy. International transport has been also proven to be a key factor driving road freight transport volumes. Moreover, the increased penetration of foreign operators in national haulage markets appears to have reinforced the final decoupling levels observed in some cases.     

Coal transportation: An undervalued aspect of energy modeling?

Changes in the supply of, and demand for, energy are reflected by the spatial pattern of energy flows. Review of energy modeling research indicates that while supply and demand variables are highly disaggregated, other aspects, such as transportation, are represented in more generalized form. Consistent economic and geographic scales are vital to the successful application of energy models to policy formulation and decision-making. Consistency of scale is examined between models and within models. Internal inconsistency of scale is demonstrated in two complex coal models which fail to provide sufficient detail on transportation characteristics. Since transportation characteristics are a major influence on the allocation of coal, insufficient disaggregation introduces error components that result in regional bias. Solutions may be found in improved model specification, transportation submodels, and rigorous sensitivity analysis of spatial error distribution.     

What influences satisfaction and loyalty in public transport? A review of the literature

Public transport ridership retention is a challenge for many cities. To develop comprehensive strategies aimed at retaining riders, it is necessary to understand the aspects of public transport that influence users to become loyal to the system. This paper analyses relevant literature regarding the causes of satisfaction and loyalty in public transport. We find that the service factors most associated with satisfaction are on-board cleanliness and comfort, courteous and helpful behaviour from operators, safety, as well as punctuality and frequency of service. On the other hand, loyalty is associated with users’ perceptions of value-for-money, on-board safety and cleanliness, interactions with personnel and the image and commitment to public transport that users feels. Furthermore, the results elucidate that the concept of loyalty is best defined based on users’ intentions to continue using the service, their willingness to recommend it to others, their overall satisfaction, but also and most importantly, their image of and involvement with public transport. Public transport users who have a positive image of the agency and consider public transport an integral component of city life are more likely to demonstrate loyalty and act like ambassadors for public transport agencies.     

Does the aviation Emission Trading System influence the financial evaluation of new airplanes? An assessment of present values and purchase options

In this paper we assess the impact of the CO₂ costs for short- and long-haul aircraft based on present values and on purchase options. We evaluate purchase options with a framework developed for real option analysis to estimate the value of flexibility under uncertain kerosene and CO₂ prices. We find an average influence of CO₂ costs on present values of €1.1 million for the short haul plane and €4.1 million for the long-haul plane over the typical lifetime of an airplane. For purchase options, we find a CO₂ influence of €0.43 million for the long-haul plane and a moderate impact for the short-haul plane. The results underline the importance of CO₂ and kerosene costs for long-haul aircraft.     

Speed or spacing? Cumulative variables,and convolution of model errors and time in traffic flow models validation and calibration

This paper proves that in traffic flow model calibration and validation the cumulative sum of a variable has to be preferred to the variable itself as a measure of performance. As shown through analytical relationships, model residuals dynamics are preserved if discrepancy measures of a model against reality are calculated on a cumulative variable, rather than on the variable itself. Keeping memory of model residuals occurrence times is essential in traffic flow modelling where the ability of reproducing the dynamics of a phenomenon – as a bottleneck evolution or a vehicle deceleration profile – may count as much as the ability of reproducing its order of magnitude. According to the aforesaid finding, in a car-following models context, calibration on travelled space is more robust than calibration on speed or acceleration. Similarly in case of macroscopic traffic flow models validation and calibration, cumulative flows are to be preferred to flows. Actually, the findings above hold for any dynamic model.     

Travel mode attitudes,urban context,and demographics: do they interact differently for bicycle commuting and cycling for other purposes?

This study examined whether interactions between travel mode attitudes, urbanization level, and socio-demographics were different for bicycle commuting and cycling for other purposes. Data were obtained from the 2014 wave of the Netherlands mobility panel (MPN). In total, 2673 respondents (18?+?years) who had recorded at least one trip on the days covered by the survey were included in the sample. Four outcomes were constructed, two of which concerned commuting-related cycling: any commuting-related bicycle usage (yes vs. no) and average cycling duration (in hours per weekday). Likewise, two similar outcome variables concerning cycling for other proposes were constructed. These outcomes were analyzed by means of Tobit regression models (cycling duration) and binary logistic models (any bicycle usage). Attitudinal factors concerning different travel modes, namely bus, car, cycling, and train, were constructed by means of factor analysis. The results showed that a positive attitude toward cycling was positively related to bicycle commuting duration, but this association was less strong among those with a positive attitude toward bus use. Having a positive cycling attitude had a weaker association with both bicycle commuting usage and duration in those who do not always have a car available. Regarding cycling for other purposes, cycling attitude had a stronger positive association with cycling duration among residents of very highly urbanized area, compared to residents of less urbanized areas. The available evidence, though limited, suggests that targeting attitudes can have a measurable impact on bicycling, but not to the same extend among all people.