A system dynamics approach to land use/transportation system performance modeling Part I: Methodology

This paper presents a system dynamics approach to simultaneous land use/transportation system performance modeling. A model is designed based on the causality functions and feedback loop structure between a large number of physical, socioeconomic, and policy variables. The model consists of 7 sub‐models: population, migration of population, household, job growth‐employment‐land availability, housing development, travel demand, and traffic congestion level. The model is formulated in DYNAMO simulation language, and tested on a data set from Montgomery County, MD. In Part I: Methodology, the overall approach and the structure of the model system is discussed and the causal‐loop diagrams and major equations are presented. In Part II: Application, the model is calibrated and tested with data from Montgomery County, MD. Least square method and overall system behavior are used to estimate the model parameters. The model is fitted with the 1970–80 data and validated with the 1980–1990 data. Robustness and sensitivities with respect to input parameters such as birth rate or regional economy growth are analyzed. The model performance as a policy analysis tool is examined by predicting the year by year impacts of highway capacity expansion on land use and transportation system performance. While this is a first attempt in using dynamic system simulation modeling in simultaneous treatment of land use and transportation system interactions, and model development and application are limited due to data availability, the results indicate that the proposed method is a promising approach in dealing with complex urban land use/transportation modeling.     

Global optimization method for mixed transportation network design problem: A mixed-integer linear programming approach

This paper proposes a global optimization algorithm for solving a mixed (continuous/discrete) transportation network design problem (MNDP), which is generally expressed as a mathematical programming with equilibrium constraint (MPEC). The upper level of the MNDP aims to optimize the network performance via both expansion of existing links and addition of new candidate links, whereas the lower level is a traditional Wardrop user equilibrium (UE) problem. In this paper, we first formulate the UE condition as a variational inequality (VI) problem, which is defined from a finite number of extreme points of a link-flow feasible region. The MNDP is approximated as a piecewise-linear programming (P-LP) problem, which is then transformed into a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problem. A global optimization algorithm based on a cutting constraint method is developed for solving the MILP problem. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method and to compare the results with alternative algorithms reported in the literature.     

A system dynamics approach to land use / transportation system performance modeling Part II: Application

This paper presents a system dynamics approach to simultaneous land use/transportation system performance modeling. A model is designed based on the causality functions and feedback loop structure between a large number of physical, socioeconomic, and policy variables. The model system consists of 7 sub‐models: population, migration of population, household, job growth‐employment‐land availability, housing development, travel demand, and traffic congestion level. The model is formulated in DYNAMO simulation language, and tested on a data set from Montgomery County, MD. In Part I: Methodology, the overall approach and the structure of the model system is discussed and the causal‐loop diagrams and major equations are presented. In Part II: Application, the model is calibrated and tested with data from Montgomery County, MD. Least square method and overall system behavior are used to estimate the model parameters. The model is fitted with the 1970–80 data and validated with the 1980–1990 data. Robustness and sensitivities with respect to input parameters such as birth rate or regional economy growth are analyzed. The model performance as a policy analysis tool is also examined by predicting the year by year impacts of highway capacity expansion on land use and transportation system performance. While this is a first attempt in using dynamic system simulation modeling in simultaneous treatment of land use and transportation system interactions, and model development and application are limited to some extent due to data availability, the results clearly indicate that the proposed method is a promising approach in dealing with complex urban land use/transportation modeling     

Combinatorial programming,statistical optimization and the optimal transportation network problem

This paper presents and evaluates a branch and bound algorithm and two heuristic hill-climbing techniques to solve a discrete formulation of the optimal transportation network design problem. For practical applications it is proposed to combine a hill-climbing algorithm with a uniform random generation of the initial solutions, thereby inducing a statistical distribution of local optima. In order to determine when to stop sampling local optima and in order to provide an estimate of the exact optimum based on the whole distribution of local optima, we follow previous work and fit a Weibull distribution to the empirical distribution of local optima. Several extensions are made over previous work: in particular, a new confidence interval and a new stopping rule are proposed. The numerical application of the statistical optimization methodology to the network design algorithms consolidates the empirical validity of fitting a Weibull distribution to the empirical distribution of local optima. Numerical experiments with hill-climbing techniques of varying power suggest that the method is best applied with heuristics of intermediate quality: such heuristics provide many distinct sample points for statistical estimation while keeping the confidence intervals sufficiently narrow.     

Incorporating land use in metropolitan transportation planning

In current practice, very few Metropolitan Planning Agencies attempt to capture the effects of transportation system changes on land use, and the consequent feedback effects on transportation system performance, despite substantial evidence that these effects may be significant. In this paper, we present a case study on the application of UrbanSim, a detailed land use simulation model system, and its integration with a regional travel demand model in the Greater Wasatch Front area of Utah. Like several other metropolitan areas, this region has recently been confronted with legal challenges to proposed highway projects, drawing substantial scrutiny to the land use-transportation connection. We describe the UrbanSim model specification, results from model estimation, and sensitivity analyses conducted with the combined land use and travel model system. The results of the sensitivity analysis suggest that accounting for the land use effects of a regional transportation plan may produce significant shifts in key transportation evaluation measures such as vehicle miles traveled, vehicle hours traveled, and hours of congestion delay.     

Suburban congestion: Recommendations for transportation and land use responses

Transportation congestion is reaching intolerable levels in many urban and suburban areas in the US. Reliance upon traditional responses, such as transit and new highway capacity, is not working — especially in suburban areas. Although methods for dealing with suburban congestion are often different, there are a number of common features that must be considered in developing short term as well as more permanent and long lasting solutions. In proposing short term solutions, a Menu of Actions is described. It includes transportation actions (the traditional transit and transportation management options) where there are opportunities for getting more out of the existing systems; land use/growth management actions which will result in more rational land use-transportation interactions; financial incentives, to encourage or discourage appropriate actions; more comprehensive and systematic land use and transportation planning; and the organizational and institutional actions required to implement rational solutions.While the Manu of Actions provides a broad array of possible actions to provide relief in the short run, over time the growth in traffic is likely to outpace their effectiveness. Consequently, longer term and often more difficult solutions must be considered and implemented as appropriate. They could include changes in land use development and land use management policies; changes in lifestyle and business practices; improvements through technological innovation; changes in the traditional ways of providing transportation services; and greatly expanded research and development.     

Techniques of land use/transportation planning in Australian cities

With the publication of the Sydney Area Transportation Study, land-use/transportation studies now have been conducted in all capital cities as well as in the majority of other urban areas with populations in excess of 40.000. A review of these studies is made and a qualitative assessment is attempted of the technical phases —land-use planning, trip-generation, trip-distribution, modal-split, traffic assignment and evaluation. Full summary results of this comparative survey are presented in tabular form, although themes developed in the text are illustrated with specific examples from individual studies. The methodology of land-use/transportation studies has been attacked by some Australian writers. An attempt is made to assess the relevance of these criticisms when applied to the practical planning process in Australia.     

Preliminary results from an integrated transportation and land use models package

This paper describes the results, to date, of an effort to integrate a land use model with a transportation network model for the purpose of analyzing the interrelationships of transportation facility development and land development. In the system which has been developed each model provides input to, and receives feedbacks from, each other model. To the author's knowledge, the effort described here represents the first successful attempt to develop and test an integrated model package involving these reciprocal relationships. The results obtained from preliminary runs of this package should be of considerable interest to both transportation planners and land use planners. With this integrated system it has been possible to observe the interrelationships, and in particular the feedbacks, between land use and levels of traffic on the networks. Preliminary results indicate that congested networks produce tendencies toward metropolitan centralization. Attempts to relieve congestion seem to produce metropolitan decentralization and increased travel which lead, in turn, to metropolitan sprawl and increased spread of congestion.     

TRESIS: A transportation,land use and environmental strategy impact simulator for urban areas

The Institute of Transport Studies has developed a Transportation and Environment Strategy Impact Simulator (TRESIS) as a decision support system to assist planners to predict the impact of transport strategies and to make recommendations based on those predictions. A key focus of the simulator is the richness of policy instruments such as new public transport, new toll roads, congestion pricing, gas guzzler taxes, changing residential densities, introducing designated bus lanes, implementing fare changes, altering parking policy, introducing more flexible work practices, and the introduction of more fuel efficient vehicles. The appropriateness of mixtures of policy instruments is gauged in terms of a series of performance indicators such as impacts on greenhouse gas emissions, accessibility, equity, air quality and household consumer surplus. In this paper we introduce TRESIS to the research community, focussing on the structure of the system and the diversity of applications. Applications are presented to illustrate the diversity and richness of TRESIS as a policy advisory tool.     

A multiobjective hierarchical model for locating public facilities on a transportation network: A goal programming approach

This paper introduces a Multiobjective Hierarchical Model (MOHLM) for locating public facilities on a transportation network. The proposed model combines the multiobjective nature of the location-allocation problem with the hierarchical character of some public service systems, such as health care delivery. The model examines both maximum and total weighted travel time, facility utilization, and total travel time from the master facility to the attached subordinate facilities. An iterative goal programing algorithm is used to solve the problem. An example related to the location of health care facilities in a rural area of Greece is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.     

Linking land use and transportation in a rapidly urbanizing context: A study in Delhi,India

Cities in developing countries like India are facing some of the same concerns that North American cities are: congestion and urban growth. However, there is a sense of urgency in cities like Delhi, India in that this growth is far more rapid as both urbanization and motorization are ongoing processes that have not yet peaked. In this paper, we examine land use change and its relationship with transportation infrastructure and other planning related variables in a spatial context. We estimate land use change models at two different scales from separate data. Cellular automation and Markov models were used to understand change at the regional scale and discrete choice models to predict change at the local level. The results suggest that land use in the Delhi metropolitan area is rapidly intensifying while losing variety. These changes are affected by industrial, commercial and infrastructure location and planners and policy-makers need to better understand the implications of location decisions. We also examine these results in the context of a policy framework for data-based planning that links land use and transportation models for Delhi.     

Towards integrated land use and transportation: A dynamic disequilibrium based microsimulation framework for built space markets

Investigating the factors and processes that influence the spatiotemporal distribution of built space and population in an urban area, plays an extremely important role in our greater understanding of the urban travel behaviour. Existing location of activity centres, especially home and work, strongly influences the short-term individual-level decisions such as mode of transportation, and long-term household-level decisions such as change in job and residential location. Conditions in the built space market also affect households’ and firms’ location and relocation decisions, and hence influence the general travel patterns in an urban area. In this context, this paper addresses a very important, but at the same time, not very widely investigated dimension that plays a key role in the evolution of built space and population distribution: Market. A disequilibrium based microsimulation modelling framework is developed for the built space markets. This framework is then used to operationalize the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area’s owner-occupied housing market within Integrated Land Use Transportation and Environment (ILUTE) modelling system. Simulation results captured heterogeneity in the transaction prices, due to type of dwellings and different market conditions, in a very disaggregate fashion. The proposed methodology is validated by running the simulation from 1986 to 2006 and comparing the results with the historic data.     

A justice-theoretic approach to the distribution of transportation benefits: Implications for transportation planning practice in the United States

Transportation improvements inevitably lead to an uneven distribution of user benefits, in space and by network type (private and public transport). This paper makes a moral argument for what would be a fair distribution of these benefits. The argument follows Walzer’s “Spheres of Justice” approach to define the benefits of transportation, access, as a sphere deserving a separate, non-market driven, distribution. That distribution, we propose, is one where the maximum gap between the lowest and highest accessibility, both by mode and in space, should be limited, while attempting to maximize average access. We then review transportation planning practice for a priori distributional goals and find little explicit guidance in conventional and even justice-oriented transportation planning and analyses. We end with a discussion of the implications for practice.     

FMOLP approach to the inland water transportation problem

Fuzzy optimization techniques can be applied in determining the optimal schedule for the transport of gravel by inland water transportation. Gravel demand, for example, is difficult to determine precisely since it depends on the industrial development of the regions supplied by gravel and on possible buyers. The duration of the annual navigation period varies depending on the water level, possible icebergs, heavy fog, strong and frequent wind. The transport company is usually satisfied if total transportation costs stay within a reasonable range. The formulation of a linear programme lacks flexibility in dealing with imprecise input data. In this paper this type of problem has been approached with fuzzy optimization techniques.     

Energy savings due to land transportation management in Singapore

Singapore has been actively engaged in implementing various land transportation policies and traffic management schemes since the early 1970s to reduce traffic congestion. This paper examines the benefits in energy savings arising from the following five major schemes: (a) the Area Licensing Scheme, (b) the computerised Area Traffic control System, (c) the adaptive traffic control system, (d) the exclusive bus lane scheme, and (e) the island-wide expressway system. The analyses are made based on the findings of a two-year study that developed vehicle fuel consumption models for Singapore traffic. The Area Licensing Scheme that restricts traffic flow into the Central Business District (CBD) is found to have the greatest energy impact, followed by the island-wide expressway system and the traffic-signals control systems within the CBD.     

A logit-based model for measuring the effects of transportation infrastructure on land value

Mutual interactions between transportation and land use have long been debated. Despite progress made in computational technology, the study of these interactions is not adequately developed. The most important aspect of such interactions is given by the changes in land values due to changes in transportation infrastructures. We consider the behavioural features of these interactions along with the constraints on the land and/or zoning restrictions and propose a reliable model for the first time to predict land value changes with respect to changes in transportation facilities and accessibility. The proposed model is a logit-based mathematical programming methodology where the relative price of land is predicted with respect to transportation accessibility, neighbourhood amenities, location premium, availability of land, and zoning regulations. A real-world case study is used to exhibit the applicability of the proposed methodology and demonstrate the efficacy of the algorithms and procedures.     

A regional railroad network optimization model for coal transportation

A regional railroad network is presented to evaluate the system's response to increased coal traffic. An optimal, multimodal, coal-shipping pattern is developed for the study region to minimize total costs and to efficiently use the existing network. A two-stage, general model allocates resources among demands and then assigns flows to the network according to efficiency criteria. The model is sufficiently general to permit modification for specific needs, assumptions and data. Government agencies and industries can apply the model in resource allocation decisions and transportation policy analysis.     

A cost and expected consequence approach to planning and managing railroad transportation of hazardous materials

Although hazardous materials (hazmat) account for around 140 million tons of all railroad freight traffic in the US, it has not received much attention from academic researchers. This is surprising especially when one considers the volume of hazmat moved by railroads in both North America and Europe. In this paper we develop a bi-objective optimization model, where cost is determined based on the characteristics of railroad industry and the determination of transport risk incorporates the dynamics of railroad accident. The optimization model and the solution framework is used to solve a realistic-size problem instance based in south-east US, which is then analyzed to gain managerial insights. In addition, a risk-cost frontier depicting non-dominated solutions is developed, followed by conclusion.     

A relationship between the gravity model for trip distribution and the transportation problem in linear programming

A gravity model for trip distribution describes the number of trips between two zones as a product of three factors; one is associated with the zone in which a trip begins, one with the zone in which it ends and the third with the separation between the zones. The separation or deterrence factor is usually a decreasing function of the generalized cost of travelling between the zones, where generalized cost is usually some combination of the time of travel, the distance travelled and the actual monetary costs.If the deterrence factor is of the exponential form exp (-αc) and if the total numbers of origins and destinations in each zone are known, then the resulting trip matrix depends solely on α. In this paper it is shown that as α tends to infinity, this trip matrix tends to a limit in which the total cost of trips is the least possible allowed by the given origin and destination totals. That is to say the limit is a cost-minimizing solution to the linear programming transportation problem having the same origin and destination totals. If this transportation problem has many cost-minimizing solutions then it is shown that the limit is one particular solution in which each non-zero flow from an origin i to a destination j is of the form r_is_j. A numerical example is given.