Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in a coastal zone

A method is introduced to determine the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which provides a measure of the uncertainty of the model as a result of the uncertainties of the input parameters.In addition to a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method was applied to an oil spill that occurred in 1989 near Sines in the southwestern coast of Portugal. This model represented well the distinction between a wind driven part that remained offshore, and a tide driven part that went ashore. For both parts, the method defined two trajectory envelopes, one calculated exclusively with the wind fields, and the other using wind and tidal currents. In both cases reasonable approximation to the observed results was obtained.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling proved to give a better interpretation of the trajectories that were simulated by the oil spill model.     

Modeling oil spills in a river—lake system

A general model shell, ROSS3, is developed for simulating oil spills in complex river systems using techniques which have not been previously exploited in oil spill models. ROSS3's new approach has several advantages over the approach to model oil spills in the past: (a) The use of a time-varying boundary-fitted coordinate system that allows accurate accounting for complex river/lake boundary as well as the river boundary changes as its water levels fluctuate; (b) The ability to confine two-dimensional hydrodynamic computations to a limited river reach; (c) The ability to interactively layout the channel networks for setting up the model, define extra cross sections to increase the accuracy if needed, in addition to the traditional data entry and visualization interfaces.ROSS3 is a two-layer two-dimensional oip spill model that can simulate the mechanism of advection, horizontal diffusion, mechanical spreading, shoreline deposition, evaporation, dissolution, vertical mixing, resurfacing and sinking. In ROSS3 spilled oil may be a surface slick or suspended oil droplets, or a combination of both. Both free surface and ice cover conditions can be simulated. The flow of conditions can be varied and the unsteady flow model can be run within ROSS3 to simulate the flow conditions in both the river and the lake. The ice conditions can be added or removed from the model input using easy interactive procedures.     

Nutrient dynamics and phytoplankton development along an estuary–coastal zone continuum: A model study

This study presents a first attempt to quantify the biogeochemical transformations and fluxes of carbon and nutrients along the entire mixing zone of the shallow, tidally-dominated estuary–coastal zone continuum of the Scheldt (Belgium/The Netherlands). A fully transient, two-dimensional, nested-grid hydrodynamic model of the continuum is coupled to the biogeochemical MIRO model for the coastal zone and the CONTRASTE model for the estuary. Transient model simulations are performed with a high spatial (80–750 m) and temporal (30 min) resolution over a period of one year (January–December 1995). The high temporal resolution allows including the short-term variability triggered by the tides, the freshwater discharge and the wind stress. System scale simulations provide time series of nutrient transformations and fluxes along the entire estuary–coastal zone continuum, as well as highly resolved nutrient inventories for the estuarine and the coastal zone sub-domains. Simulation results reveal that the balance between highly variable estuarine nutrient inputs and physical constrains set by the unsteady residual transport field exert an important control on the magnitude and succession of phytoplankton blooms and the ecosystem structure in the coastal zone. In addition, they suggest that the poorly surveyed estuarine–coastal zone interface plays a central role in the continuum. In this dynamic area, marked spatial concentration gradients develop and episodically lead to a reversal of material fluxes from the coast into the estuary. During distinct episodes of the productive period, euryhaline coastal diatoms intrude far upstream into the saline estuary. This intrusion reduces the estuarine nutrient concentrations and export fluxes, thereby reinforcing the nutrient limitation in the coastal area. As a consequence, the estuarine filter does not operate independently from the processes in the coastal zone. The dynamic interplay between the two ecosystems and the intense process rates operating at their transition, therefore, strongly supports our continuum approach.     

Incorporating container location dispersion into evaluating GCR performance at a transhipment terminal

The degree of container dispersion at a transhipment terminal is measured by an index termed container location dispersion, which represents the range, both horizontal and vertical, of all containers for ship loading that are scattered in the yard. First, this paper identifies the impacts of container location dispersion on loading performance with insufficient or sufficient equipment deployment in real-life settings at a terminal. Then, we investigate those scenarios with different levels of interference. This research aims to explore the relationship between the container location dispersion and Gross Crane Rate (GCR) stability at a transhipment terminal and proposes a discrete-event driven simulation model for this purpose. All data in our experiments are extracted from the terminal operation system at a real-life container terminal. It is concluded from a series of experiments that the container location dispersion well captures the overall performance of container terminal handling and can be used for yard template optimization and management. Implications of this investigation are discussed in the context of the yard template design and improvement in the overall performance of a container transhipment terminal.     

瓯江下游河段污染物质滞留时间数值模拟研究

利用平面二维数学模型对瓯江下游守恒性污染物质滞留时间的空间变化及其对于径流、潮差、初始排放时刻的响应进行了研究.研究将瓯江梅岙至口门河段分为8个子区域分别进行数值试验.数学模型上、下游边界分别采用径流量和潮位控制.上游径流量选取5个代表性流量,下游选取大、中、小潮及混合潮型进行组合研究滞留时间的基本变化规律.研究认为,...     

Large eddy simulations for quasi-2D turbulence in shallow flows: A comparison between different subgrid scale models

In this study, the performance of the horizontal large eddy simulation module, developed at the University of Leuven (HLES-KULeuven module) is assessed. A comparison between different subgrid scale models has been carried out. The study is concerned with the non-rotating and unstratified flows. The results of the simulation for an oscillatory backward facing (BFS) flow are presented in case of an expanding flume based on a one-length scale approach and a two-length scale approach. Three subgrid scale (SGS) models have been tested: Smagorinsky SGS model (Smagorinsky, J., (1963). General circulation experiments with the primitive equations, I. the basic experiments. Monthly Weather Review, 91(3), 99–164), Uittenbogaard SGS model (Uittenbogaard, R.E., and van Vossen, B., (2004). Subgrid-scale model for quasi-2D turbulence in shallow water. Shallow Flows. Jirka and Uijttewaal (Eds.), Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 90 5809 700 5) and a proposed two-length scale approach. The first two models are considered to be a one-length scale models. A simulation without a subgrid scale model for the horizontal mixing has also been conducted. In all simulations, a quadratic friction model parameterizes the dissipation produced by the 3D-subdepth scale turbulence. The two-length scale concept uses a newly mixing length formulation for the quasi-2D turbulence and doesn't depend on the filter width in contrast to the one-length scale approach, in which the mixing length is function of the filter width. The outputs of the HLES-KULeuven module have been compared with the experimental data taken from Stelling, G.S., and Wang, L.X., (1984). Experiments and computations on separating flow in an expanding flume. Dept. Civil Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Report 2–84.). The two-length scale approach has been validated with experimental data from SERC Flood Channel Facility at HR Wallingford. In general, there is a qualitative agreement with the experimental data. It has also been found that the two-length scale approach produces more elongated and less isotropic vortex than the one-length scale models.     

瓯江口航道海域溢油扩散数值模拟

首先建立了瓯江口海区平面二维潮流数学模型,根据现场实测资料对该数学模型进行验证.在此基础上对该海区的潮流场进行模拟,为溢油模型提供水动力基础数据,然后利用MIKE21 SA溢油模型对溢油泄露事故进行影响预测.研究结果表明,风的条件因素对油膜漂移轨迹的影响较大.在潮周期的不同阶段发生溢油事故时,溢油油膜漂移轨迹可能完全不...     

基于分层系数法与混合比法的长江口盐淡水混合规律研究

采用长江口4条入海汊道3个月的水文测验资料,研究长江口的盐度分布格局和盐淡水混合情况,运用分层系数法和混合比法对长江口实测盐度数据进行分析。结果表明:北支汊道的盐度最高,洪、枯变幅大,全年均为垂向均匀混合型;南支3条汊道盐度从高到低依次为南槽、北槽、北港;盐淡水混合强度从高到低依次为南槽、北槽、北港,这与长江口北港分流量大于北槽、北槽分流量大于南槽的格局相对应;枯季的混合强度大于洪季,大潮的混合强度大于小潮。盐淡水的混合强度呈周期性变化,涨急前后垂向混合程度最大,涨潮的混合强度高于落潮时的混合强度。     

瓯江口航道二期治理潜堤工程三维潮流数值模拟

基于MIKE3技术平台,建立了瓯江口工程海域三维潮流数学模型.模型水平采用无结构的三角形网格系统,垂向采用(σ)坐标,较好地拟合了工程海域复杂的岛屿岸线和地形特征.采用现场实测水文资料,对瓯江口航道二期治理潜堤工程实施后的三维流场进行了模拟,并分析了工程实施后的影响.工程实施后,瓯江北口航道、沙头水道、小门水道、大门岛...     

Shallow water processes govern system-wide phytoplankton bloom dynamics: A modeling study

A pseudo-two-dimensional numerical model of estuarine phytoplankton growth and consumption, vertical turbulent mixing, and idealized cross-estuary transport was developed and applied to South San Francisco Bay. This estuary has two bathymetrically distinct habitat types (deep channel, shallow shoal) and associated differences in local net rates of phytoplankton growth and consumption, as well as differences in the water column's tendency to stratify. Because many physical and biological time scales relevant to algal population dynamics decrease with decreasing depth, process rates can be especially fast in the shallow water. We used the model to explore the potential significance of hydrodynamic connectivity between a channel and shoal and whether lateral transport can allow physical or biological processes (e.g. stratification, benthic grazing, light attenuation) in one sub-region to control phytoplankton biomass and bloom development in the adjacent sub-region. Model results for South San Francisco Bay suggest that lateral transport from a productive shoal can result in phytoplankton biomass accumulation in an adjacent deep, unproductive channel. The model further suggests that turbidity and benthic grazing in the shoal can control the occurrence of a bloom system-wide; whereas, turbidity, benthic grazing, and vertical density stratification in the channel are likely to only control local bloom occurrence or modify system-wide bloom magnitude. Measurements from a related field program are generally consistent with model-derived conclusions.     

Mathematical modelling of response amplitude operator for roll motion of a floating body: Analysis in frequency domain with numerical validation

This paper investigates mathematical modelling of response amplitude operator （RAO） or transfer function using the frequency-based analysis for uncoupled roll motion of a floating body under the influence of small amplitude regular waves. The hydrodynamic coefficients are computed using strip theory formulation by integrating over the length of the floating body. Considering sinusoidal wave with frequency （ω ） varying between 0.3 rad/s and 1.2 rad/s acts on beam to the floating body for zero forward speed, analytical expressions of RAO in frequency domain is obtained. Using the normalization procedure and frequency based analysis, group based classifications are obtained and accordingly governing equations are formulated for each case. After applying the fourth order Runge-Kutta method numerical solutions are obtained and relative importance of the hydrodynamic coefficients is analyzed. To illustrate the roll amplitude effects numerical experiments have been carried out for a Panamax container ship under the action of sinusoidal wave with a fixed wave height. The effect of viscous damping on RAO is evaluated and the model is validated using convergence, consistency and stability analysis. This modelling approach could be useful to model floating body dynamics for higher degrees of freedom and to validate the result.     

Description of a flexible and extendable physical–biogeochemical model system for the water column

A modelling system for coupled physical–biogeochemical simulations in the water column is presented here. The physical model component allows for a number of different statistical turbulence closure schemes, ranging from simple algebraic closures to two-equation turbulence models with algebraic second-moment closures. The biogeochemical module consists of models which are based on a number of state variables represented by their ensemble averaged concentrations. Specific biogeochemical models may range from simple NPZ (nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton) to complex ecosystem models. Recently developed modified Patankar solvers for ordinary differential equations allow for stable discretisations of the production and destruction terms guaranteeing conservative and non-negative solutions. The increased stability of these new solvers over explicit solvers is demonstrated for a plankton spring bloom simulation. The model system is applied to marine ecosystem dynamics the Northern North Sea and the Central Gotland Sea. Two different biogeochemical models are applied, a conservative nitrogen-based model to the North Sea, and a more complex model including an oxygen equation to the Baltic Sea, allowing for the reproduction of chemical processes under anoxic conditions. For both applications, earlier model results obtained with slightly different model setups could be basically reproduced. It became however clear that the choice for ecosystem model parameters such as maximum phytoplankton growth rates does strongly depend on the physical model parameters (such as turbulence closure models or external forcing).     

不同浸深比半浸式螺旋桨动态力试验研究

为了探讨半浸式螺旋桨的动态性能,利用六分力天平测量不同浸深比下半浸式螺旋桨的非定常力,分析浸深比对半浸式螺旋桨动态力的影响,并探讨半浸式螺旋桨受力在水平面和垂直平面上的方向性.试验结果表明,在合适的浸深比下,可以减小半浸式螺旋桨各分力的波动,改善半浸式螺旋桨的操纵性能.     

Modeling emulsification after an oil spill in the sea

A conceptual model for simulating oil emulsification after a spill in the ocean is presented. This paper contains the complete model formulation and scenario simulations. The model formulation is based on the most up-to-date research information available in the literature. The model uses minimum turbulence energy as a criterion to determine whether emulsification occurs. Once the emulsification happens, the model simulates water uptake and viscosity changes during emulsification. The model classifies emulsion into three categories: stable, meso-stable, and unstable emulsions based on a concept “stability index”. The model estimates the stability of the emulsion and simulates the process of de-emulsification when the emulsion is meso-stable or unstable. The model also considers the effects of evaporation on the formation of emulsification. Scenario simulations show how different types of emulsions are formed under different conditions. They also show how the emulsion stability changes with oil weathering.     

Use of a probabilistic particle tracking model to simulate the Prestige oil spill

A probabilistic particle tracking model is used to simulate the oil dispersion after the Prestige wreckage. This oil spill constitutes a suitable benchmark to analyze the capabilities of a probabilistic model, since the time elapsed from wreckage to oil landing (12 days) is much longer than the reliability time associated with forecast winds, usually on the order of 3–4 days. The particle model can be run in two different modes: real time mode (when existing reliable wind fields for the event under scope) and in probabilistic mode (in absence of reliable wind fields but with historical fields corresponding to a similar period). The validity of the particle model is first evaluated in a hindcast way, running the Prestige case with the wind fields corresponding to the period November 19 to November 30, 2002, which were not available at the moment of the wreckage. Calculations show the accuracy of the model to provide the right impact point and timing. The probabilistic model is then used to simulate the same event by means of historical data. The region where the oil landed is shown to be the area with the highest probability to be impacted.     

A system for determining economic loss associated with estuary degradation

Abstract

This article suggests a method of estimating economic losses for estuary‐dependent faunal species under conditions whereby the impact of a given degrading development on a particular estuary has a significant degree of uncertainty associated with it. The approach draws on standard theories from a variety of disciplines to provide an operational procedure capable of joint application by biologists, economists, and other related disciplines with working responsibility in the subject area. Consideration is given to probability estimation of possible impacts, sensitivity to underlying assumptions, and decisional safety under conditions of uncertainty. Applied results are demonstrated in a simulation of a negative developmental impact on the estuary‐dependent salmon resources of the Fraser River in British Columbia.     

Physical–biological coupling in spore dispersal of kelp forest macroalgae

The physical–biological linkages controlling the dispersal of spores produced by macroalgae that reside in kelp forests are complicated and laced with feedbacks. Here we discuss the fundamental elements of these interactions. Biological considerations include spore swimming and sinking speeds, their periods of viability in the plankton, and the height of spore release above the seafloor, which together determine the durations over which spores can be swept by horizontal currents before they contact the seafloor. Morphologies and material properties of canopy forming kelps may also influence the drag exerted on passing waters by the kelps, the plants' ability to persist in the face of rapid flows, and thereby the degree to which impinging currents are redirected around, or slowed within, kelp forests. Macroalgal life histories, and the size of spore sources as controlled by the dimensions of kelp forests and the density and fecundity of individuals within them, influence effective dispersal distances as well. Physical considerations encompass the mean speed, direction, and timescales of variability of currents relative to spore suspension times, the interaction of surface gravity waves with currents in producing turbulence in the benthic boundary layer, wind-driven surface mixing, water stratification, and shoreline bathymetry and substratum roughness, all of which can affect the interplay of vertical and horizontal transport of macroalgal spores. Intricate within-forest processes may induce attenuation of current speeds and consequent reductions in seabed shear, along with simultaneous production of small-scale turbulence in kelp wakes. Slower mean currents and smaller eddy scales in turn may attenuate vertical mixing within forests, thus extending spore suspension times. Further complexities likely arise due to changes in the relative rates of horizontal and vertical dispersion, modifications to the overall profiles of vertical mixing, and the creation of fine-scale secondary flows around kelp individuals and substratum features. Under conditions of more rapid currents, submergence of the surface canopy and the establishment of skimming flows at the canopy–fluid interface may introduce additional coherent flow structures that alter rates of fluid exchange to and from the forest. Many of these coupled physical–biological processes are just beginning to be examined in a rigorous fashion in kelp forests, but their potential importance is clear.     

Estuary Management and Recreational Fishing Benefits

Recognition of the benefits to society supported by estuary ecosystem functions and services, and threats to these benefits posed by human activities, has led to various public programs to restore and protect estuaries at the federal, state, and local levels. As available budgets shrink, program administrators and public elected officials struggle to allocate limited restoration and protection funds to the highest priority areas. Economic benefit and cost information can provide useful inputs into this decision-making process by quantifying estuary restoration and protection benefits and costs in commensurate terms. In this paper, a combined actual and intended travel behavior model is described that can be applied to estimate the recreational fishing benefits of estuary restoration and protection. The model was estimated for recreational fishing in the Lower Atchafalaya River Basin estuary along the Gulf of Mexico, Louisiana, USA coast. Changes in freshwater flows into this estuary may affect redfish and speckled trout game fish populations. The model indicates that changes in catch rates of these two species would have a relatively minor affect on annual fishing trips per angler. However, because total effects may be large when effects per angler are aggregated across total anglers, resource management agencies should consider these changes in recreation benefits when evaluating projects that influence the ecology of coastal estuaries, fish populations, and catch rates. Moreover, in other coastal areas or situations, the responsiveness of angling trips to changes in catch rates may vary because of differences in user populations, environmental conditions, fish populations, and fishing experiences.     

Seasonal variability of dissolved major and trace elements in the Gaoping (Kaoping) River Estuary, Southwestern Taiwan

To gain a better understanding of the geochemical behavior of trace elements in estuary and to examine seasonal variations in associated chemical fluxes, more than 50 water samples were collected near the mouth of the Gaoping (formerly spelled Kaoping) River, a major river in southwestern Taiwan. These samples, collected in typical dry and wet tropical monsoon seasons during 1999–2004, were analyzed for dissolved major and trace elements and Sr isotopes. Our results show that dissolved Na, Mg, Ca and Cl behave conservatively along the salinity gradient and display significantly larger fluxes in the wet seasons. Vertical profiles of the major elements reveal mainly two end-member mixing between the riverine freshwater and the seawater. Trace elements of B, Sr and U also display conservative distribution in the vertical profiles. In contrast, dissolved Ba and Mn were affected by uptake/release processes involving groundwater, benthic flux and water/sediment interactions. ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios also support a scenario of mixing between a more radiogenic continental source and the seawater. It appears that the wet season samples have higher trace element concentrations due to inputs from topsoils and atmospheric dusts. This implies that chemical compositions in river waters respond sensitively to regional climatic changes. The observed high fluxes of B and Sr in the Gaoping (Kaoping) River emphasize the potential impact of mountainous rivers on the global oceanic mass balance of these constituents.     

Modelling the impact of double hull technology on oil spill numbers

This article presents the results of modelling the behaviour of oil spill numbers published by the International Tanker Owners Pollution Federation over the period 1970 to 2005. Poisson count or negative binomial models are estimated to identify the major determinants of oil spill numbers over this period. The results are used to estimate the number of oil spills that would have occurred in the absence of the adoption of double hull technology. Other potential factors, such as changes in the regulatory regimes regarding oil transportation, were found to be insignificant.