A basic mathematical model for evacuation problems in urban areas

Real life situations like floods, hurricanes or chemical accidents may cause the evacuation of a certain area to rescue the affected population. To enable a fast and a safe evacuation a basic mixed-integer evacuation model has been developed that provides a reorganization of the traffic routing of a certain area for the case of an evacuation. This basic problem of evacuation minimizes the evacuation-time while prohibiting conflicts within intersections. Our evacuation model is a dynamic network flow problem with additional variables for the number and direction of used lanes and with additional complicating constraints.Because of the size of the time-expanded network, the computational effort required by standard software is already very high for tiny instances. To deal with realistic instances we propose a heuristic approach.     

Joint inventory-location problem under the risk of probabilistic facility disruptions

This paper studies a reliable joint inventory-location problem that optimizes facility locations, customer allocations, and inventory management decisions when facilities are subject to disruption risks (e.g., due to natural or man-made hazards). When a facility fails, its customers may be reassigned to other operational facilities in order to avoid the high penalty costs associated with losing service. We propose an integer programming model that minimizes the sum of facility construction costs, expected inventory holding costs and expected customer costs under normal and failure scenarios. We develop a Lagrangian relaxation solution framework for this problem, including a polynomial-time exact algorithm for the relaxed nonlinear subproblems. Numerical experiment results show that this proposed model is capable of providing a near-optimum solution within a short computation time. Managerial insights on the optimal facility deployment, inventory control strategies, and the corresponding cost constitutions are drawn.     

A threshold model of social contagion process for evacuation decision making

Individual evacuation decisions are often characterized by the influence of one’s social network. In this paper a threshold model of social contagion, originally proposed in the network science literature, is presented to characterize this social influence in the evacuation decision making process. Initiated by a single agent, the condition of a cascade when a portion of the population decides to evacuate has been derived from the model. Simulation models are also developed to investigate the effects of community mixing patterns and the initial seed on cascade propagation and the effect of previous time-steps considered by the agents and the strength of ties on average cascade size. Insights related to social influence include the significant role of mixing patterns among communities in the network and the role of the initial seed on cascade propagation. Specifically, faster propagation of warning is observed in community networks with greater inter-community connections.     

Strategies for customer service level protection under multi-echelon supply chain disruption risk

We model a multi-echelon system where disruptions can occur at any stage and evaluate multiple strategies for protecting customer service if a disruption should occur. The strategies considered take advantage of the network itself and include satisfying demand from an alternate location in the network, procuring material or transportation from an alternate source or route, and holding strategic inventory reserves throughout the network. Unmet demand is modeled using a mix of backordering and lost sales. We conduct numerical analysis and provide recommendations on selecting strategic mitigation methods to diminish the impact of disruptions on customer service. We demonstrate that the greatest service level improvements can be made by providing both proactive inventory placement to cover short disruptions or the start of long disruptions, and reactive back-up methods to help the supply chain recover after long or permanent disruptions.     

A double standard model for allocating limited emergency medical service vehicle resources ensuring service reliability

This paper introduces a new double standard model (DSM), along with a genetic algorithm (GA), for solving the emergency medical service (EMS) vehicle allocation problem that ensures acceptable service reliability with limited vehicle resources. Without loss of generality, the model is formulated to address emergency services to human injuries caused by vehicle crashes at intersections within an urban street network. The EMS fleet consists of basic life support (BLS) and advanced life support (ALS) vehicles suited for treating crashes with different severity levels within primary and secondary service coverage standards corresponding to extended response times. The model ensures that all demand sites are covered by at least one EMS vehicle within the secondary standard and a portion of which also meets the service reliability requirement. In addition, a portion of demand sites can be covered by at least one of each type of EMS vehicles within the primary standard. Meanwhile, it aims to achieve maximized coverage of demand sites within the primary standard that complies with the required service reliability. A computational experiment is conducted using 2004–2010 data on top two hundred high crash intersections in the city of Chicago as demand sites for model application. With an EMS fleet size of 15 BLS and 60 ALS ambulances maintained by the Chicago Fire Department, at best 92.4–95.5% of demand could be covered within the secondary standard at 90% of service reliability; and 65.5–68.4% of high severity demand and 50.2–54.5 low severity demand could be covered within the primary standard at 90% of service reliability. The model can help optimize EMS vehicle allocation in urban areas.     

公路限速标志设置的位置研究

公路限速标志是现代交通管理中最普遍的控制车速的方式,也是保障道路交通安全的基础设施。文章介绍了限速标志设置的基本要求,分析了我国限速标志设置存在的问题,并从限速标志设置的地点、路段、位置点、距离和限速值等方面论证限速标志设置的位置,为科学设置公路限速标志提供参考。     

Examining the influence of multidestination service orientation on transit service productivity: a multivariate analysis

Between 1990 and 2000, U.S. transit agencies added service and increased ridership, but the ridership increase failed to keep pace with the service increase. The result was a decline in service effectiveness (or productivity). This marks the continuation of a long-running and often-studied trend. The scholarly literature attributes this phenomenon, at least in part, to transit agency decisions to decentralize their service rather than focus on serving the traditional CBD market. Many scholars argue that a decentralized service orientation is both ineffective and inefficient because it attracts few riders and requires large per-rider subsidies. This research tests whether a non-traditional, decentralized service orientation, called multidestination service, results in reduced service productivity. Contrary to what the literature suggests, we find that MSAs whose transit agencies pursued a multidestination service orientation did not experience lower productivity. These results indicate that policies that have encouraged the growth of decentralized transit services have not necessarily been detrimental to the industry.

Animal dynamics based approach for modeling pedestrian crowd egress under panic conditions

Collective movement is important during emergencies such as natural disasters or terrorist attacks, when rapid egress is essential for escape. The development of quantitative theories and models to explain and predict the collective dynamics of pedestrians has been hindered by the lack of complementary data under emergency conditions. Collective patterns are not restricted to humans, but have been observed in other non-human biological systems. In this study, a mathematical model for crowd panic is derived from collective animal dynamics. The development and validation of the model is supported by data from experiments with panicking Argentine ants (Linepithema humile). A first attempt is also made to scale the model parameters for collective pedestrian traffic from those for ant traffic, by employing a scaling concept approach commonly used in biology.     

Urban spatial location advantage: The dual of the transportation problem and its implications for land-use and transport planning

Numerous recent studies have investigated the relationship between the location of jobs and housing in urban areas and how this relates to urban commuting patterns. Few have utilised the dual of the transportation problem of linear programming (TPLP) to provide insights into these relationships Accordingly, this analysis utilises the TPLP to determine dual variable values (shadow prices) for a study area in Dublin, Ireland. The approach determines the pattern of relative location advantage for the peak and off-peak travel periods and for public and private transport for 1991 and 2001. The results are set against the expected results for hypothetical urban structures. The results show that the pattern of relative location advantage has altered sharply over the study period for off-peak trip-making but has remained more or less the same for trip-making in the peak period. For the off-peak period, the pattern of relative location advantage has shifted from the central area to the periphery specifically for private transport trips; for public transport, the pattern has remained focused on the city centre. This indicates that private transport users can react more quickly to changes in the distribution of land-use activities than their public transport counterparts due to the relatively fixed nature of the latter mode. This implies that the public transport network needs to be reorganized to better reflect the revised pattern of trip-making specifically for the off-peak period. The results demonstrate the value of using the approach for providing information about the spatial organisation of land uses within cities and where future development may be targeted.     

基于节点重要度与交通区位的公路运输枢纽布局研究

从区域社会经济、公路运量及交通区位三方面出发,基于节点重要度与交通区位综合分析,建立了运输枢纽节点重要度与交通区位相结合的评价指标体系。由于各指标在比较时具有一定模糊性,因此文章运用模糊层次分析法确定了各指标的权重,通过引入重要度综合指数,对区域内各运输枢纽节点的重要度综合指数进行了分析。通过对山东省区域公路运输枢纽布局重要度综合指数的实例分析,验证了该方法的合理性和可行性,为公路运输枢纽总体布局研究提供了主要理论依据。     

Willingness to pay for improving service quality in a multimodal area

Travellers use the installations at multimodal areas to transfer from one mode of transport to another. In many cases these installations are called interchanges. This article characterises the users of transport interchanges to determine the fundamental attributes which they most value when they pass through the area. A Stated Choice survey is designed and administered and Mixed Logit models are estimated to calculate willingness to pay levels for three main attributes: transfer time, the quality of the available information and the services provided in the area. Travellers place most value on the quality of the information they receive and the available services rather than on transfer time, which contradicts the widely held opinion of experts in the field. This opens up new possibilities in the design of modern interchanges which should concentrate more on being welcoming areas with many information points rather than being based around minimising transfer times.     

Centralized versus distributed feeder ship service: The case of the Maasvlakte harbour area of Rotterdam

Coastal and inland feeder shipping is a critical factor for intercontinental container transport. The question is whether each intercontinental terminal should be equipped with its own service stations for feeder shipping, or whether pooling of the facilities would be more effective. For this paper, the service station examined for the service of feeder ships is equipped with two quay cranes operating in parallel supported by a small active quay stack. The centre for this feeder service consists of several of these stations. Simulation shows that a crane productivity of 96% is feasible with an average vehicle waiting time of 1 min, that a central service requires fewer service stations than a distributed service and that the quay transport for central and distributed transport requires the same number of terminal vehicles. The analysis shows that a centralized service is preferable, attracting 70% of the market potential.     

输油气管道清管器跟踪定位方法及跟球选址技巧

以提高清管器现场定点跟踪的准确性为目的,提出了清管器模糊定位的数学计算方法,并针对球前后不同介质形式,给出了相应的选址技巧。结合实际应用,结果表明该简易计算方法对清管器的模糊位置判断具有一定的可信度,应用此方法计算的时间要综合考虑管道路由情况,可更加准确地预判清管器到达时间,对现场实际操作人员的工作具有一定的借鉴意义。     

A model of bus bunching under reliability-based passenger arrival patterns

If bus service departure times are not completely unknown to the passengers, non-uniform passenger arrival patterns can be expected. We propose that passengers decide their arrival time at stops based on a continuous logit model that considers the risk of missing services. Expected passenger waiting times are derived in a bus system that allows also for overtaking between bus services. We then propose an algorithm to derive the dwell time of subsequent buses serving a stop in order to illustrate when bus bunching might occur. We show that non-uniform arrival patterns can significantly influence the bus bunching process. With case studies we find that, even without exogenous delay, bunching can arise when the boarding rate is insufficient given the level of overall demand. Further, in case of exogenous delay, non-uniform arrivals can either worsen or improve the bunching conditions, depending on the level of delay. We conclude that therefore such effects should be considered when service control measures are discussed.     

隆林新洲养护站边坡稳定性分析

文章利用SLOPE／W模块,基于确定值方法和可靠度理论的极限平衡法．对隆林新洲养护站边坡在不采取支挡措施和采用锚索抗滑桩支挡措施情况下,如何保持边坡稳定性进行了对比分析。     

A Granular Variable Tabu Neighborhood Search for the capacitated location-routing problem

This paper proposes a new heuristic algorithm for the Capacitated Location-Routing Problem (CLRP), called Granular Variable Tabu Neighborhood Search (GVTNS). This heuristic includes a Granular Tabu Search within a Variable Neighborhood Search algorithm. The proposed algorithm is experimentally compared on the benchmark instances from the literature with several of the most effective heuristics proposed for the solution of the CLRP, by taking into account the CPU time and the quality of the solutions obtained. The computational results show that GVTNS is able to obtain good average solutions in short CPU times, and to improve five best known solutions from the literature. The main contribution of this paper is to show a successful new heuristic for the CLRP, combining two known heuristic approaches to improve the global performance of the proposed algorithm for what concerns both the quality of the solutions and the computing times required to find them.     

成品油管道泄漏监测与定位系统的研制

研制一套有效的成品油管道泄漏监测与定位系统,对于输油管道的安全运行及环境保护,减少企业经济损失具有重要的意义。根据现场实际工况,提出一种与SCADA系统相结合的成品油管道泄漏监测与定位系统方案,给出了系统的组成与工作原理。基于GPS授时与中断技术的异地同步采集保证了异地数据采集设备的精确同步。系统使用基于负压波的分段斜率法准确判断泄漏;采用小波变换精确检测负压波传到首末站的时间差,并给出了小波基函数的选取原则及定位方法。实际应用表明：系统报警响应时间短、误报率低、泄漏定位精度高。     

燃气管道泄漏检测与定位技术研究

文中介绍了基于SCADA系统的燃气管道泄漏检测和定位技术,简述了压力梯度法、负压波法、瞬态模型法这3种常用的管道检测技术,给出数学模型,提出对压力梯度法与负压波数学公式的改进.根据压力梯度法的实验原理,在管道首末端各设置2个压力传感器,提高了检测精度;对负压波数学公式进行变形,使其更易求解.分析结果表明:随着对检测精度和定位精度要求的提高,多种技术方法综合运用应受到更多的关注和研究.     

Reducing the cost of peak hour transit service through contracting out service

Transit service contracting has responded to fiscal and financial woes of public transit agencies as the most uniquely attractive cost‐saving strategy at present. Most transit service contracting, however, has been in the traditional provision of entire fixed route bus service or commuter express bus service, and exclusive demand responsive service for the general public or for special disadvantaged population groups such as the elderly and/or the handicapped. This paper presents a new module in transit service contracting whereby the public and private operators jointly provide the peak service on the same route and at the same time. While the public agency provides the base demand of the service, the private provider provides the excess demand, both following the same schedules and similar service arrangements. In this paper, proposed service arrangements, costing and contracting procedures are discussed. It is also reported that substantial cost savings ranging from 32 to 57% with an average savings of 48% can be achieved if the excess peak hour bus transit service on highly peaked routes in public transit agencies is contracted to competing private operator(s).     

Investigation of the use of smartphone applications for trip planning and travel outcomes

This paper explores the use of smartphone applications for trip planning and travel outcomes using data derived from a survey conducted in Halifax, Nova Scotia, in 2015. The study provides empirical evidence of relationships of smartphone use for trip planning (e.g. departure time, destination, mode choice, coordinating trips and performing tasks online) and resulting travel outcomes (e.g. vehicle kilometers traveled, social gathering, new place visits, and group trips) and associated factors. Several sets of factors such as socio-economic characteristics and travel characteristics are tested and interpreted. Results suggest that smartphone applications mostly influence younger individuals’ trip planning decisions. Transit pass owners are the frequent users of smartphone applications for trip planning. Findings suggest that transit pass owners commonly use smartphone applications for deciding departure times and mode choices. The study also identifies the limited impact of smartphone application use on reducing travel outcomes, such as vehicle kilometers traveled. The highest impact is in visiting new places (a 48.8% increase). The study essentially offers an original in-depth understanding of how smartphone applications are affecting everyday travel.