Quantitative estimation of the influence of surface thermal fronts over chlorophyll concentration at the Patagonian shelf

Eighteen-year (1985–2002) mean monthly SST Pathfinder data with 9 km spatial resolution have been used to estimate surface gradients by finite differences. Then the seasonal climatological means have been calculated from the intensity of these gradients, and surface thermal fronts present in the Patagonian Continental Shelf (PCS) have been located. Moreover, 6 years (1998–2003) of SeaWiFS data with approximately 4 km spatial resolution have been used to estimate monthly composite images of surface chlorophyll concentration, after which seasonal climatological means distributions have been generated. Both seasonal distributions have been analyzed together and by combining the knowledge of oceanographic processes and phytoplankton responses to light and nutrient availability, regions where the presence of a thermal front affects photosynthetic activity have been identified. Subjective criteria have been applied to define eighteen areas where phytoplankton biomass is influenced by the presence of a thermal front. In these areas, the surface chlorophyll (spatial mean and total), its relationship with the surface chlorophyll of the whole region, and the seasonal evolution of this relationship have been calculated. All frontal areas cover less than 15% of the total surface, but they contribute with over 23% of the phytoplankton annual mean biomass. Considered as a group, during summer they show high chlorophyll values very similar to those in spring. During the cold period, when the water column is vertically mixed in practically the whole of PCS, the influence of physical fronts over the biological production is minimum. The frontal zone image remains clearly defined during summer, when approximately 85% of the area will have a determined mean chlorophyll concentration, while the other 15% has a 2.45 times larger value. While three pattern trends have been identified in the frontal areas, only two of them condition the pattern of the group, due to their horizontal extension.     

Plankton distribution and the impact of copepod grazing on primary production in Fram Strait, Greenland Sea

Two hydrobiological transects across the East Greenland Shelf and the open waters of Fram Strait in summer were chosen to illustrate the distribution and production of phyto- and zooplankton in relation to water masses and ice cover. The parameters used were temperature and salinity, inorganic nutrients, chlorophyll a, primary production, phytoplankton species composition, abundance of the dominant herbivorous copepods Calanus finmarchicus, C. glacialis, C. hyperboreus, Metridia longa and egg production of C. finmarchicus and C. glacialis. Grazing impact of copepodites and adults of these four species was modelled for each station by using egg production rates as an index of growth. Seasonal development of plankton communities was closely associated with the extent of the ice cover, hydrographic conditions and the water masses typical of the different hydrographic domains. Four regions were identified from their biological activities and physical environment: The Northeast Water polynya on the East Greenland Shelf, with a springbloom of diatoms and active reproduction of herbivorous copepods. The pack ice region, dominated by small flagellates and negligible grazing activities. The marginal ice zone, with high variability and strong gradients of autotroph production related to eddies and ice tongues, an active microbial loop and low egg production. The open water, with high station-to-station variability of most of the parameters, probably related to hydrographic mesoscale activities. Here, Phaeocystis pouchetii was a prominent species in the phytoplankton communities. Its presence may at least partly be responsible for the generally low egg production in the open waters. Grazing impact on primary production was always small, due to low zooplankton biomass in the polynya and due to low ingestion in the remaining regions.     

Phytoplankton size classes competitions at sub-mesoscale in a frontal oceanic region

The effects of mesoscale and sub-mesoscale dynamics on the competition between two different phytoplankton size classes are investigated with a 3D primitive equations model. The model reproduces realistic simulations of mesoscale turbulence generated by a westward current in the southern hemisphere at statistical equilibrium in a summer situation. Effects of two different grazing pressures on phytoplankton competitions are compared and the role of eddy variability is quantified comparing high and low resolution simulations.High resolution simulations reveal a filamentary distribution of biomass and nutrients induced by the combination of vertical advection and horizontal stirring. This fine scale variability is observed not only on the horizontal but also on the vertical into the subsurface chlorophyll maximum.One of the key results is that such a dynamics induces a spatial segregation of the phytoplankton in the southern part of the frontal region that is mainly filamentary. This spatial segregation consists in biomass maxima for large phytoplankton in rich nutrients filaments and maxima for small phytoplankton outside these filaments. This anti-correlation is particularly strong when grazing pressure is low and is confirmed by statistical analysis. In the central frontal region, dominated by mesoscale dynamics, the two phytoplankton classes are strongly correlated together and biomass maxima are located close to downwelling regions that are poor in nutrients.It is shown that the effect of grazing is significantly amplified by the fine scale dynamics and that the combination of these two mechanisms is responsible of a switch of the ecosystem dominance in the surface layers.In addition, the effect of frontal dynamics on the detritus export is very sensitive to grazing pressure: increasing grazing induces a significant decrease of the export in the presence of frontal dynamics whereas it induces an increase of the export without small-scale variability.     

Primary productivity and export fluxes on the Canadian shelf of the Beaufort Sea: A modelling study

We present a coupled sea ice–ocean-biological (including ice algae) model in the Arctic Ocean. The 1D model was developed and implemented on the Canadian Beaufort Sea shelf to examine the importance of different physical processes in controlling the timing and magnitude of primary production and biogenic particle export over an annual cycle (1987). Our results show that the snow and sea ice cover melt and/or break-up controls the timing of the phytoplankton bloom but primary producers (ice algae and phytoplankton) on the outer shelf are essentially nutrient limited. The total annual primary production (22.7 to 27.7 g-C m^? 2) is thus controlled by nutrient “pre-conditioning” in the previous fall and winter and by the depth of wind mixing that is controlled in part by the supply of fresh water at the end of spring (ice melt or runoff). The spring bloom represents about 40% of the total annual primary production and occurs in a period of the year when sampling is often lacking. Time interpolation of observed values to obtain total annual primary production, as done in many studies, was shown to lead to an underestimation of the actual production. Our simulated ratios of export to primary production vary between 0.42 and 0.44.     

Seasonal variability of fractionated phytoplankton, biomass and primary production in the Straits of Magellan

The results on the distribution of phytoplankton biomass (expressed as Chla) and primary production (¹⁴C assimilation), during three oceanographic cruises carried out during Austral spring and at the end of the summer and the autumn in the Straits of Magellan, suggest a strong variability of trophic levels for this ecosystem.Seasonal evolution of the biomass concentration goes from the spring maximum of 2.33 μg/l through a sharp decrease, 0.49 μg/l, observed at the end of summer, until the minimum of 0.24 μg/l measured during the autumn.The trophic conditions are dependent on hydrographic, meteo-climatic and geo-morphological characteristics: at the Atlantic entrance and between the two Angosturas the strong mixing of water column limit the development of phytoplankton; at the Western opening and along the Pacific arm the complex exchange mechanisms with the ocean, the glacio-fluvial contribution and the presence of a thermohaline front near the Isla Carlos III influence both biomass and primary production distributions. The maximum values are reached in the Central Zone (Paso Ancho) characterized by high stability of the water column.Primary production ranged from a minimum of 12.3 to a maximum of 125.9 mgC m⁻² h⁻¹. The overall trend seems to be a progressive and simultaneous increase from the Pacific and Atlantic openings to the Central Zone of Paso Ancho where the maximum value was reached. In general, biomass and primary production distributions correspond quite well except for the area of Isla Carlos III where biological and chemico-physical causes tend to limit ¹⁴C assimilation.Contribution of pico-phytoplankton (< 2 μm) to total biomass appears to be time dependent: in the blooms observed during spring a very modest incidence (< 6%) was observed whereas became more (> 50%) during the summer-autumn seasons when total biomass was decreasing.Within the Straits, at the end of summer, the contribution of pico-phytoplankton primary production is 59%, whereas nano and microplankton contribute 39% and 2%, respectively. At the oceanic external stations the photosynthetic activity of the bigger size-fraction (> 2 μm) is predominant (> 50%).These findings support the hypothesis that the pico-phytoplankton ( < 2 μm) is substantially constant, whereas temporal variations are due to the larger (> 10 μm) cells only.     

A spatially explicit ecosystem model of seston depletion in dense mussel culture

A fully-coupled biological–physical–chemical model of a coastal ecosystem was constructed to examine the impact of suspended mussel culture on phytoplankton biomass in Tracadie Bay, Prince Edward Island, Canada. Due to the extent of mussel culture there, we hypothesised that shellfish filtration would control the concentration and distribution of phytoplankton and other suspended particles in the bay. Circulation was delineated with a tidally-driven 2D numerical model and used to drive an ecosystem model with a focus on pelagic components including phytoplankton production, nutrients, detritus, and mussels. The benthos were treated as a sink. Nutrients and seston were forced by tidal exchange and river input, with phytoplankton additionally forced by light. Boundary conditions of seston and nutrients were derived from field studies with an emphasis on the contrast between spring (high river nutrients, low temperature) and summer (low river inputs and high temperatures). Model output was used to map phytoplankton carbon over the bay for each season and in the presence of mussels and river nutrient input. Results indicate severe depletion effects of mussel culture on overall phytoplankton biomass, but no spatial pattern that can be attributed to grazing alone. Primary production generated by nutrient-rich river water created a mid-bay spike in phytoplankton that dominated the spatial pattern of chlorophyll-based carbon. Model results were validated with surveys from a towed sensor array (Acrobat) that confirmed the river influence and indicated bay-wide depletion of 29% between high and low water. Our model results indicate that the farm-scale depletion emphasised in previous studies cannot simply be extrapolated to seston limitation at the ecosystem level.     

Nutrient cycling and primary production in the marine systems of the Arctic and Antarctic

Primary production events in both the Arctic and the Antarctic are highly localized. Carbon-14 incubations that did not account for this caused antarctic primary production estimates to be revised too far downwards from the historic view of high productivity. The primary production regime in the Arctic is even more heterogeneous than in the Antarctic. Arctic primary production rates are in the process of being revised upwards because of a better spatial and temporal distribution of incubation experiments and a re-awakening of interest in estimating new production from the distribution of chemical variables. Similarly, recent examination of temporal changes in nitrate concentrations and recognition of the importance of ice-edge blooms has caused antarctic primary productivity to be revised upwards. In both the Arctic and the Antarctic, the ratio of “new” to total primary production is high, and neglect of this fact can lead to an underestimation of the potential that these regions have for influencing global cycles of bioactive chemicals. Some recent data on temporal changes in nitrate from Fram Strait emphasize the poor state of our knowledge by suggesting an unexpectedly high “new” production rate of 1 g C m⁻² d⁻¹ for a 35 day experiment that encountered an early Phaeocystis bloom. Chemical distributions suggest that new production over the shelf seas that border the Polar Basin is about 50 g Cm⁻² yr⁻¹.The shelves in the Arctic Ocean's marginal and adjacent seas comprise 25% of the total global continental shelf. These extensive shallow regions have much higher rates of primary production than the Polar Basin and may be globally significant sites of denitrification. Globally significant silica deposition could occur on these shelves or on the adjacent slopes.Because of the differences in geomorphology and stratification, global warming is likely to increase primary production in the Arctic and will probably decrease antarctic primary production.In addition to sharing high ratios of “new” to total primary production, high ammonium concentrations occur in the Arctic and Antarctic. It is possible that these accumulations arise from a strong repression of nitrification at low temperatures.     

An eddy-permitting, coupled ecosystem-circulation model of the Arabian Sea: comparison with observations

A nitrogen-based, pelagic ecosystem model has been coupled with an eddy-permitting ocean general circulation model of the Arabian Sea, and the results are compared with observations. The seasonal variability simulated by the model is in good agreement with observations: during the southwest monsoon season, phytoplankton increases in the western Arabian Sea due to upwelling along the coast; during the northeast monsoon season, phytoplankton abundance is large in the northern Arabian Sea because of the enhanced nitrate entrained by relatively deep vertical mixing. Two major differences are, however, found in the basin-wide comparison between model results and observations: an unrealistic nitrate maximum in the subsurface layer of the northern Arabian Sea and too low primary production in oligotrophic regimes. The former may be attributed to the lack of denitrification in the model. Possible causes for the latter include the present model's underestimation of fast nutrient recycling, the neglect of carbon fixation decoupled from nitrogen uptake and of nitrogen fixation, and inadequate nitrate entrainment by mixed layer deepening. The rate at which simulated nitrate increases in the northern Arabian Sea is 11–24 TgN/year, and should correspond to the denitrification rate integrated over the northern Arabian Sea assuming that the loss of nitrogen through denitrification is balanced by advective input. The model does not reproduce the observed phytoplankton bloom in the late southwest monsoon season. Possible causes are that the mixed layer may be too shallow in summer and that the horizontal transport of nitrate from the coast of Oman may be too weak. Sensitivity experiments demonstrate a strong dependence of the simulated primary productivity on the vertical mixing scheme and on the inclusion of a fast recycling loop in the ecosystem model.     

1/32° real-time global ocean prediction and value-added over 1/16° resolution

A 1/32° global ocean nowcast/forecast system has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory at the Stennis Space Center. It started running at the Naval Oceanographic Office in near real-time on 1 Nov. 2003 and has been running daily in real-time since 1 Mar. 2005. It became an operational system on 6 March 2006, replacing the existing 1/16° system which ceased operation on 12 March 2006. Both systems use the NRL Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) with assimilation of sea surface height from satellite altimeters and sea surface temperature from multi-channel satellite infrared radiometers. Real-time and archived results are available online at http://www.ocean.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom. The 1/32° system has improvements over the earlier system that can be grouped into two categories: (1) better resolution and representation of dynamical processes and (2) design modifications. The design modifications are the result of accrued knowledge since the development of the earlier 1/16° system. The improved horizontal resolution of the 1/32° system has significant dynamical benefits which increase the ability of the model to accurately nowcast and skillfully forecast. At the finer resolution, current pathways and their transports become more accurate, the sea surface height (SSH) variability increases and becomes more realistic and even the global ocean circulation experiences some changes (including inter-basin exchange). These improvements make the 1/32° system a better dynamical interpolator of assimilated satellite altimeter track data, using a one-day model forecast as the first guess. The result is quantitatively more accurate nowcasts, as is illustrated by several model-data comparisons. Based on comparisons with ocean color imagery in the northwestern Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, the 1/32° system has even demonstrated the ability to map small eddies, 25–75 km in diameter, with 70% reliability and a median eddy center location error of 22.5 km, a surprising and unanticipated result from assimilation of altimeter track data. For all of the eddies (50% small eddies), the reliability was 80% and the median eddy center location error was 29 km. The 1/32° system also exhibits improved forecast skill in relation to the 1/16° system. This is due to (a) a more accurate initial condition for the forecast and (b) better resolution and representation of critical dynamical processes (such as upper ocean – topographic coupling via mesoscale flow instabilities) which allow the model to more accurately evolve these features in time while running in forecast mode (forecast atmospheric forcing for the first 5 days, then gradually reverting toward climatology for the remainder of the 30-day forecast period). At 1/32° resolution, forecast SSH generally compares better with unassimilated observations and the anomaly correlation of the forecast SSH exceeds that from persistence by a larger amount than found in the 1/16° system.     

Modelling the ecosystem dynamics of the Barents Sea including the marginal ice zone: II. Carbon flux and interannual variability

An upgraded and revised physically–biologically coupled, nested 3D model with 4 km grid size is applied to investigate the seasonal carbon flux and its interannual variability. The model is validated using field data from the years for which the carbon flux was modelled, focussing on its precision in space and time, the adequacy of the validation data, suspended biomass and vertical export. The model appears to reproduce the space and time (± 1 week and 10 nautical miles) distribution of suspended biomass well, but it underestimates vertical export of carbon at depth. The modelled primary production ranges from 79 to 118 g C m^− 2 year^− 1 (average 93 g C m^− 2 year^− 1) between 4 different years with higher variability in the ice-covered Arctic (± 26%) than in the Atlantic (± 7%) section. Meteorological forcing has a strong impact on the vertical stratification of the regions dominated by Atlantic water and this results in significant differences in seasonal variability in primary production. The spatially integrated primary production in the Barents Sea is 42–49% greater during warm years than the production during the coolest and most ice-covered year.     

Adapting the light · biomass (BZI) models of phytoplankton primary production to shallow marine ecosystems

Several authors have reported a strong linear relationship between daily phytoplankton production and the product of chlorophyll biomass, photic depth, and incident irradiance for a variety of estuaries. This “light · biomass” (BZ_pI_o) formulation has been proposed as an alternative to traditional mechanistic approaches for computing phytoplankton production in numerical estuarine models. One limitation to their application in shallow systems is that the BZ_pI_o models have been developed in relatively deep estuaries where light does not reach the bottom. We propose a nonlinear correction factor to adapt the BZ_pI_o relationship to shallow systems where light does reach the bottom. Our function takes into account variations in incident irradiance, attenuation coefficient for light, photosynthetic efficiency, and maximum rate of photosynthesis. A series of correction polynomials are proposed for various ranges of incident irradiance, and are integrated into a single multiple polynomial which applies across all irradiance levels. Our new correction factor was tested against a ¹⁴C-based productivity dataset from shallow stations in Narragansett Bay, RI and an O₂-based dataset from shallow (1.1 m) lagoon mesocosms at the University of Rhode Island. Results showed that our polynomials accurately correct BZ_pI_o-predicted rates of production in shallow water columns. Application of our correction factor to a series of shallow water productivity datasets from the literature together with theoretical calculations show how significant the shallow water correction can be, especially in very shallow water columns with low turbidity.     

Influence of local and external processes on the annual nitrogen cycle and primary productivity on Georges Bank: A 3-D biological–physical modeling study

Georges Bank is one of the world's most highly productive marine areas, but the mechanisms of nutrient supply to support such high productivity remain poorly understood. Intrusions of nutrient-poor Labrador Slope Water (LSW) into the Gulf of Maine (NAO-dependent) potentially can reduce nutrient delivery to the bank, but this mechanism has not been quantitatively examined. In this paper, we present the first whole-year continuous model simulation results using a biological–physical model developed for the Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank region. This high-resolution three-dimensional coupled model consists of the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) and a Nitrogen–Phytoplankton–Zooplankton–Detritus (NPZD) model, and was used to examine the influences of local and external processes on nitrogen and phytoplankton dynamics on Georges Bank. The model captured the general pattern of spatial-temporal distributions of nitrogen and phytoplankton and provided a diagnostic analysis of different processes that control nitrogen fluxes on Georges Bank. Specifically, numerical experiments were conducted to examine seasonal variation in nitrogen transport into the central bank (new nitrogen supply) versus nitrogen regenerated internally in this region. Compared with previous observation-based studies, the model provided a quantitative estimate of nitrogen flux by integrating the transport over a longer time period and a complete spatial domain. The results suggest that, during summer months, internal nitrogen regeneration is the major nitrogen source for primary production on the central bank, while nitrogen supply through physical transport (e.g. tidal pumping) contributes about 1/5 of the total nitrogen demand, with an estimated on-bank nitrogen transport at least 50% less than previous estimates. By comparing the model runs using different nitrogen concentrations in deep Slope Water, the potential influence of NAO-dependent intrusions of LSW was examined. The results suggest that the change of nitrogen concentration in the deep Slope Water may not have a significant impact on nitrogen and phytoplankton dynamics on the well-mixed central bank, largely due to limited nutrient exchange across the tidal mixing front and enhanced near-frontal nutrient uptake. However, relatively more significant impact was observed in the model simulations if both well-mixed and seasonally-stratified areas (inside 100 m isobath of the bank) were considered in flux calculations.     

Offshore export versus in situ fractionated mineralization: a 1-D model of the fate of the primary production of the Rías Baixas (Galicia, NW Spain)

A linked hydrodynamic mineralization model is described and used to evaluate offshelf fluxes and fractionated mineralization of particulate phytogenic materials in the coastal upwelling system of the Rías Baixas (NW Spain), under three different typical situations of the upwelling season. The simulations made indicate that the intensity of upwelling controls: (a) net community production (NCP); (b) particulate organic matter (POM) accumulation; (c) in situ mineralization; and (d) matter export in the ‘Rías Baixas.’ Under strong upwelling conditions, there is an important horizontal offshelf flux, having only a small mineralization effect on NCP; if weak upwelling conditions are simulated, POM export is dramatically reduced and in situ mineralization is significantly enhanced; finally, under average upwelling conditions, the offshelf export of POM is about one third of the POM accumulation inside the domain, evidencing its importance in the productivity enhancement of near-shore areas. According to our sensitivity tests, the net vertical velocity (water velocity plus sinking velocity) has a critical role in the C/N/P stoichiometry of POM.     

Spatial and temporal variability of size-fractionated biomass and primary production in the Ross Sea (Antarctica) during austral spring and summer

The results of a study on the spatial and temporal dynamics of size-fractionated biomass and production of phytoplankton in the Ross Sea during the austral spring and summer are reported. The spring cruise took place in the offshore Ross Sea from 14 November to 14 December 1994. Sampling was carried out on a transect of 27 stations distributed from 76.5 to 72.0°S along 175°E, and covered the three main Antarctic environments of the polynya open waters, the marginal ice zone and the pack ice area. Three subsystems were identified. The subsystem of the polynya was characterised by the predominance of the micro- and nano-planktonic fractions, chlorophyll (Chl a) concentrations from 69.6 to 164.7 mg m⁻² and production rates from 0.68 to 1.14 g C m⁻² day⁻¹. The second subsystem, the marginal ice zone, showed a relative increase of the micro-planktonic fraction, high biomass levels (from 99.64 to 220 mg Chl m⁻²) and production rates from 0.99 to 2.7 g C m⁻² day⁻¹. The subsystem of the pack ice area had a phytoplankton community dominated by the pico-planktonic fraction and showed low biomasses (from 19.4 to 37.7 mg Chl m⁻²) and production rates (0.28 to 0.60 g C m⁻² day⁻¹). Selective grazing by krill is considered an important factor in determining the size structure of the phytoplankton communities. The summer study consisted of a time series carried out in inshore waters of Terra Nova Bay from 12 January to 8 February 1990. In a well stabilised water column and with high levels of PAR always available, the primary production rates of a community dominated by micro-plankton varied from 0.52 to 1.2 g C m⁻² day⁻¹ (average 0.84). A high P/B ratio, up to 3, and a remarkably elevated mean phaeopigment (Phaeo)/Chl a ratio of 2.4 indicated an active removal of biomass by grazing, confirmed by the presence of faecal pellets in quantities reaching 6000 m⁻³ in the upper 50 m. The peculiarities of the inshore versus offshore environments in terms of community size structure, production processes and their implications as regards the food web are discussed.     

Wind-triggered events of phytoplankton downward flux in the Northeast Water Polynya

Phytoplankton carbon fluxes were studied in the Northeast Water (NEW) Polynya, off the eastern coast of Greenland (79° to 81°N, 6° to 17°W), during summer 1993. The downward flux of organic particles was determined during 54 days using a sediment trap moored at a fixed location, below the pycnocline (130 m). The hypothesis of the present study is that wind events were ultimately responsible for the events of diatoms downward flux recorded in the trap.Wind conditions can influence the vertical transport of phytoplankton by affecting (1) the environmental conditions (e.g. hydrostatic pressure, nutrient concentrations, and irradiance) encountered by phytoplankton during their vertical excursion, and (2) the aggregation and disaggregation of phytoplankton flocs. The first mechanism affects the physiological regulation of buoyancy, whereas the second one affects the size and shape of settling particles.Using field data (wind velocity, density profiles and phytoplankton abundance), we assessed the potential aggregation and the vertical excursion of phytoplankton in surface waters. The results show that, upstream from the trap, wind and hydrodynamic conditions were sometimes favourable to the downward export of phytoplankton. Lag-correlation between time series of wind and phytoplankton downward flux shows that flux events lagged wind events by ca. 16 days. Given that the average current velocity in the top 100 m was ca. 10 cm s⁻¹, a lag of 16 days corresponded to a lateral transport of ca. 130 km, upstream from the sediment trap, where phytoplankton production was lower than at the location of the trap. According to that scenario, 21% to 60% of primary production was exported to depth during wind events. If we had assumed instead a tight spatial coupling between the material collected in the trap and the relatively high phytoplankton production at the location of the trap, we would have concluded that <7% of primary production was exported to depth. The difference between the two scenarios has great implications for the fate of phytoplankton. Our results stress the importance of investigating the spatial coupling between surface and trap data before assessing the pathways of phytoplankton carbon cycling.     

Modelling the hydrodynamics and ecosystem of the North-West European continental shelf for operational oceanography

This paper outlines an approach to complex spatio-temporal marine ecosystem modelling as applied to the North Western European Continental Shelf. The model presented here combines an eddy-permitting (approximately 6 km horizontal resolution) baroclinic model, the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System (POLCOMS), with the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM). This has been run within an operational framework using operationally available high resolution atmospheric and lateral boundary forcing, allowing hindcast and near-real time nowcast simulations to be performed. The modelled surface temperature and chlorophyll distributions are presented, and interannual variations discussed. Validation of both the physical and ecosystem submodels show the system to be effective, whilst highlighting areas where improvements in the system can be made. Distinct regional differences in predictive skill are shown. The system presented is ready for operational implementation to provide products and services for use both scientifically and in coastal zone and shelf seas management activities. A programme of work to update the system is already in place.     

Tidal current variability in the Central Great Barrier Reef

With tidal data from the literature and the field, a two-dimensional (depth-averaged) numerical model was formulated to simulate the dominant semi-diurnal tidal hydrodynamics of the Central Great Barrier Reef continental shelf. Importantly, the individual mesh dimensions of the numerical scheme were set at approximately 2 × 2 km which was sufficient resolution to incorporate the topography of each reef within the matrix. The model provided a new detailed understanding of the influence of the reef matrix on the tidal currents of the outer shelf. In particular, the model demonstrated that the spatial variability in the tidal current's speed and direction exists down to the scale of the 2 km grid size. The model also demonstrated the significant tidally-induced residual currents that result from the interaction with the complex topography of the reef matrix. The advective effect of these tidal currents would be significant as the tidally-induced residual currents are of similar magnitude to the non-tidal currents of the region. Further, the spatial variability in the modelled and observed tidal currents suggests highly spatially variable advective processes operate within the reef waters.     

Large-scale physical controls on phytoplankton growth in the Irminger Sea, Part II: Model study of the physical and meteorological preconditioning

The upper water column in the Irminger Sea is characterized by cold fresh arctic and subarctic waters and warm saline North Atlantic waters. In this study the local physical and meteorological preconditioning of the phytoplankton development over an annual cycle in the upper water column in four physical zones of the Irminger Sea is investigated. Data from four cruises of the UK's Marine Productivity programme are combined with results from a coupled biological–physical nitrogen–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus model run using realistic forcing. The observations and model predictions are compared and analyzed to identify the key parameters and processes which determine the observed heterogeneity in biological production in the Irminger Sea. The simulations show differences in the onset of the bloom, in the time of the occurrence of the maximum phytoplankton biomass and in the length of the bloom between the zones. The longest phytoplankton bloom of 90 days duration was predicted for the East Greenland Current of Atlantic origin zone. In contrast, for the Central Irminger Sea zone a phytoplankton bloom with a start at the beginning of May and the shortest duration of only 70 days was simulated. The latest onset of the phytoplankton bloom in mid May and the latest occurrence of the maximum biomass (end of July) were predicted for the Northern Irminger Current zone. Here the bloom lasted for 80 days. In contrast the phytoplankton bloom in the Southern Irminger Current zone started at the same time as in Central Irminger Sea, but peaked end of June and lasted for 80 days. For all four zones relatively low daily (0.3–0.5 g C m^− 2d^− 1) and annual primary production was simulated, ranging between 35.6 g C m^− 2y^− 1 in the East Greenland Current of Atlantic origin zone and 45.6 g C m^− 2y^− 1 in the Northern Irminger Current zone. The model successfully simulated the observed regional and spatial differences in terms of the maximum depth of winter mixing, the onset of stratification and the development of the seasonal thermocline, and the differences in biological characteristics between the zones. The initial properties of the water column and the seasonal cycle of physical and meteorological forcing in each of the zones are responsible for the observed differences during the Marine Productivity cruises. The timing of the transition from mixing to stratification regime, and the different prevailing light levels in each zone are identified as the crucial processes/parameters for the understanding of the dynamics of the pelagic ecosystem in the Irminger Sea.     

Strong bottom–up effects on phytoplankton community caused by a rainfall during spring and summer in Sagami Bay,Japan

To assess the consequences of bottom-up effects on phytoplankton community composition during the rainy season, phytoplankton levels and environmental factors were monitored daily from 12 April to 22 July 2003 in Sagami Bay, Japan. The relevant environmental factors were analyzed using cross-correlation analyses. Based on time-series analysis, low surface salinity conditions lasting 0 or 2 days after heavy rainfalls resulted in significant nutrient loading, such as dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), into the coastal area. Also, Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration frequently increased 2 and 6 days after rainfall. Based on the high total Chl-a concentration, the time was divided into three periods, from 1 to 11 May (Period A), 26 May to 9 June (Period B) and 30 June to 22 July (Period C). The phytoplankton assemblages during Period A were dominated by two dinoflagellates, Ceratium furca and Ceratium fusus. Prior to these species blooming, the heterotrophic dinoflagellate Noctiluca scintillans was dominant. During Period B, the phytoplankton communities were dominated primarily by the diatoms Rhizosolenia delicatula, Hemiaulus sinensis and Navicula spp. Finally, Cerataulina dentata, Rhizosolenia spp., Lauderia borealis and Neodelphineis pelagica were dominant during Period C. After increases in phytoplankton abundance, available nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) were consumed and exhausted, which were considered a potential cause of the shift in the dominant organisms from large diatoms to pico- and nano-plankton in the low Chl-a environment. In particular, silicate (Si) was not a major limiting factor for phytoplankton production, since the Si:DIN and Si:P ratios clearly demonstrated that there were no any potential stoichiometric Si limitations, and almost all silicate concentrations were > 2.0 µM during this study. Our results reveal that nutrient sources supplied by river discharge are a main cue for strong bottom–up effects on algal bloom succession during the early summer season in Sagami Bay.