集装箱运价衍生品的发展分析

分析集装箱运价衍生品开发的必要性、具体操作方式以及使用中面临的问题,以达到更好地发挥衍生品功能的目的,为建设上海国际航运中心软环境作出贡献。     

海运运费衍生品市场发展现状与展望

海运运费衍生品市场中先后涌现多种运费衍生品,为航运企业提供了有效规避运费风险的工具。阐述海运运费衍生品市场的发展现状、阶段性特点以及未来的发展趋势。     

负运价:一场没有赢家的游戏

近期,由于有了中央电视台“焦点访谈”节目的聚焦,中日航线负运价的报道引起了全社会的广泛关注和争论。在2002年,当“零运价”、“负运价”初次登场的时候,它并不如今日般被炒得沸沸扬扬。那么,究竟是什么原因让几位业内人士对媒体再次端出了这一锅有些变质的冷饭?难道是对“国有资产流失”的痛心?难道是不愿再“便宜日本人”的民族正义感?还是在恶性竞争中不堪忍受的无休止的利润缩水?对业内人士来说,负运价不过是一个哗众取宠的噱头,而船东、货主、行业管理者,甚至媒体、大众,谁又是这场游戏的真正赢家?     

Shipping and investment incentives: a trilogy

Governments may often try to stimulate investment in their own country by altering the climate in which such decisions are made. They achieve this by means of fiscal and financial regimes which may offer investment incentives for particular forms of investment and/or favourable financial arrangements to facilitate the purchase of particular assets. This paper discusses the form which such incentives might take and considers the literature to examine how such incentives have been perceived by businessmen whose actions they are intended to influence.     

Tanker forward freight agreements: the future for freight futures?

Since paper freight-hedging tools were introduced to counter volatile tanker freight rates, the hesitant uptake of tanker Forward Freight Agreements (FFAs) has been attributed to traditional risk seeking propensities amongst tanker owners, naturally reluctant to hedge against risk. To test how far the well-documented generic determinants and incentives for corporate hedging could explain this hesitation in the tanker market, the attitudes of tanker owners and charterers towards freight hedging, risk and perceptions of FFAs, were surveyed. Although FFAs were widely viewed as an important development, some respondents were unaware of their function and a majority had not used them. The link between freight hedging activity and participants' risk aversion was not clear-cut, but with market liquidity critical to raising FFA usage improved technical education is essential to widespread acceptance     

Cooperation among freight forwarders: Mode choice and intermodal freight transport

The objective of this paper is to compare vertical and horizontal cooperation among freight forwarders. The paper analyses three freight forwarders (‘players’) with two different means of transportation. The first two players are truck-operating freight forwarders. The third player is a freight forwarder with its own ship. For the purposes of analysis, the paper applied a two-stage game. The results revealed that the best form of cooperation is the one in which the large truck-operating company would establish a coalition with the ship-operating company; that is, vertical cooperation. This cooperation would generate better payoffs in the form of profit, not only to the members of this coalition, but also to the player that has not joined the coalition. However, user surplus is negative in all coalitions, which shows that the establishment of these kinds of cooperation is not beneficial (in terms of prices) for the users of these service providers.     

Modelling forward freight rate dynamics—empirical evidence from time charter rates

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamics of forward freight rate dynamics. We specify our model in a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework. This model was originally developed for interest rate markets and, in subsequent work, the model has been applied to various commodity markets. We analyse ten years of weekly time charter (TC) rates for a Panamax 65,000 dwt bulk carrier. Our data set consists of 6-, 12- and 36-month TC rates. We use this data to construct, each day, a forward rate function using a smoothing algorithm. We use the smooth data to investigate the factors governing the dynamics of the forward freight rate curve. We find a strange volatility structure in the data. Out results show that the volatility of the forward curve is bumped, with volatility reaching a peak for freight rates with roughly one year to maturity. Also, correlations between different parts of the term structure are in general low and even negative.     

Predicting freight flows in a globalising world

In this paper we suggest a methodology to predict commodity specific transportation flows that brings together data in value and in quantity terms in a consistent way. The approach is based on the modern gravity formulation. There are three driving forces of the transport flows dynamics: economic growth, the ongoing globalization (reduction of trade barriers), and the changing commodity composition of trade, whereby the evolution of value-to-weight ratios is explicitly taken into account. The methodology is applied to forecast the interregional trade flows in Europe.     

创建真实的安全文化

国际航运业仍然是当今世界技术领域里最具活力和创新精神的行业,当我们迈入21世纪之时,那些关心海上安全的人们却越来越明显地关注着人类行为的方方面面.     

航运更加安全需要安全文化

简述了对航运安全文化建设进行探讨的必要性,分析了安全文化的定义与内涵,论述了实施安全文化建设的意义,指出国际海事组织所采取的一系列措施为安全文化建设创造了有利条件。据此,得出航运更加安全需要安全文化的结论。     

Shipping finance: time to follow a new track?

In this paper we introduce, for the first time, a methodology from the most recent literature of finance to reveal the duration of shipping cycles and then show the benefit of the use of this information to make more successful shipping loans. This is so as banks are willing to finance, during boom periods, shipping loans for new buildings but by this way 'create' oversupply and thus depress the freight market by their own actions. The information about cycles, especially their forecasting, is mostly important as shipping loans are based on project financing/cash flow financing, which means that ship revenue is of utmost importance. The Rescaled Range Analysis is applied here to 379 monthly freight trips—made stationary—between 1971 and 2002 (July), due to Hurst 1 and elaborated and popularized by Mandelbrot 2. The most important effect, however, is that shipping freight series exhibit non-normality and long-run dependence rendering the use of random walk models such as GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) problematic. Thus an adequate literature review is carried out with criticism against the models used. The cycles have been calculated as equal to 4.5 years and 2.25 years. This is almost compatible with the most recent paper of Stopford 3. The Hurst exponent was found equal to 0.93, alternating over the periods examined (0.65, 0.73, 0.62, 0.59 and 0.55) and indicating long-term persistence but seriously away from normal/random walk domain. Most studies have said the same using the Jarque--Bera test for normality but provided no alternative.     

航运金融 迎来发展契机

<正>在全球金融危机寒意不减的情况下,我国金融机构对航运金融业务的积极介入给航运市场注入了汩汩暖流。金融机构积极介入航运金融业务2009年,国际航运业处于低谷,我国航运金融服务迎来了加快发展的契     

CCS:the Forerunner of Green Shipping

Under the influence of the majorgreentrend in the world,the shipping ecology will certainly face great changes.For the shipping industry,greenis no longer a topic of natural ecology,     

航运指数:裂变与轮回

近几年,波罗的海干散货综合运价指数(BDI)上蹿下跳,让众多船东、贸易商、金融机构如坐过山车般心惊肉跳。对中国相关方而言,曾经被誉为航运市场晴雨表的BDI,以及由此而生的运价指数衍生品,一夜之间变得陌生而捉摸不透。那么,航运指数究竟为何物?其背后又蕴藏着哪些奥秘?     

航运外交彰显大国风采

今年国庆,温家宝总理出访欧洲四国并出席亚欧首脑会议之行的第一站--希腊比雷埃夫斯港.一个并不显眼的港口吸引了欧洲各界乃至全球关注的目光,成为中外媒体追逐的焦点.     

青远航运：做好客户服务的大文章

“服务竞争”是未来企业竞争的一个核心领域。伴随着航运市场竞争的日益激烈，转变思维策略，跳出经验的窠臼，建立起现代客户服务管理的价值导向和宏观战略，成为大多数航运企业的探索和追求，以有效优质的服务满足客户需求是航运经营者最主要的目标之一。作为一家有着30多年航运经营历史的老牌航运企业，青远公司在变与不变中构思客户服务的大文章，用行动拭亮“青岛远洋”这块航运界的金字招牌。[编者按]     

水运大国远洋运输模式透视

现今,以中国在内的世界20强海运强国基本垄断了世界海运市场,纵观这些远洋运输强国的发展情况,我们会发现以下特点:多数船乐挂方便旗     

集装箱运输的发展及我国航运公司的发展策略

介绍了近几年国际集装箱班轮市场的发展情况及所呈现的趋势;然后分析了我国的集装箱班轮公司在国际海运市场竞争中的优劣;最后为我国航运企业的发展提出了几点建议。     

远期运费协议的应用

为推动远期运费协议（FFA）的应用,从航运市场运费风险规避的角度出发,分析套期保值、投机和套利等3种FFA投资策略以及基本面分析、技术分析这2种交易分析手段,以期通过掌握正确的投资策略和操作方法,在FFA市场上实现理想目标。