Transport emissions and travel behaviour: A critical review of recent European Union and UK policy initiatives

There are clear signs of a shift in the UK transport policy in response to concerns about the environmental impacts of road transport and anxieties about the implications of the projected future growth in demand.Much of the framework of UK transport policy is now determined at the overall European Union level. To date most European legislation and policy proposals have been concerned with reducing the specific externalities associated with the transport sector, with none of the measures involved likely to have more than a marginal impact on the growth in demand. The emerging research evidence suggests however that the private costs of car use in Europe may fall substantially short of its total social costs and there is an important emerging policy debate about how this gap might be closed.The UK has introduced a policy package designed to reduce the growth of car travel and its environmental impact, within which land-use planning measures feature prominently. The land-use policies, which to some extent represent a reassertion of many traditional UK planning policies, include: an emphasis on focussing new development in urban areas, increasing residential densities, strengthening the role of existing centres and improving provision for walking and cycling.A number of factors will constrain the effectiveness of the package in practice. There are also concerns about its impact on key environmental objectives, including air quality. There are important questions too about the welfare effects of increasing densities and about the wider impacts of the package on economic efficiency.     

Examining the Political and Practical Reality of Bus-based Real Time Passenger Information

Abstract

Enhancing the bus experience through improved information provision is a key element of UK Government transport policy. Real time passenger information (RTPI) is perceived to reassure waiting passengers, to benefit the bus operator through increased revenue and the local authority, by promoting social inclusion and achieving a modal shift. RTPI also provides an important tool for operators by allowing them to monitor services and refine their schedules.

The aim of this paper is to understand the reasons for implementing RTPI in the bus sector, and to determine the key issues impacting on the likely success of such a policy. A case study approach investigates the experiences of two provincial towns in the UK. The paper suggests that, whilst it is unclear whether RTPI has resulted in an increase in bus patronage, it is considered to be most effective when combined as part of a package of measures. It is intended that the findings from the two case studies will reveal lessons of relevance to authorities contemplating the introduction of RTPI.     

Transport and equity in Latin America: a critical review of socially oriented accessibility assessments*

ABSTRACT

A growing concern for mobility-related social inclusion and equity is evident from both academic research and planning best practices. Scholarly research promotes accessibility as the main aim of transport planning, assuming it as the evaluative approach that better conveys how mobility contributes to individuals' well-being and participation in social life. Accessibility can be crucial to address the socio-spatial inequalities that characterise manifold settings across the world. Amongst them, Latin American countries have been keen in tackling such imbalances through mobility-related interventions, as the renowned cases of Curitiba, Medellin and Bogotá show. The widespread interest in mobility as both a cause and effect of social disparities has generated an increasing stream of work that examines Latin American settings through the lenses of accessibility. This paper aims at critically reviewing the growing scholarly works that, providing accessibility-based evaluations, has examined issues of transport and equity in Latin America. Proposing a novel conceptual framework that considers the underlying ethical stance, components of accessibility and implications for planning and policy, this work examines what approaches, features and indicators are present in the current literature, as well as what settings have been taken into consideration by scholarly research. Moreover, the review has an explicit operational interest, to define what indicators are relevant or missing to assess accessibility in the light of social concerns, as well as to consider the current and potential implications that such research findings have on transport planning and policy. The review highlights how a growing but still limited body of work has examined transport and equity in Latin America, suggesting academic, technical and operational avenues to enhance theoretical and practical approaches to the issue.     

A method to evaluate equitable accessibility: combining ethical theories and accessibility-based approaches

In this paper, we present the case that traditional transport appraisal methods do not sufficiently capture the social dimensions of mobility and accessibility. However, understanding this is highly relevant for policymakers to understand the impacts of their transport decisions. These dimensions include the distribution of mobility and accessibility levels over particular areas or for specific population groups, as well as how this may affect various social outcomes, including their levels of participation, social inclusion and community cohesion. In response, we propose a method to assess the socially relevant accessibility impacts (SRAIs) of policies in some of these key dimensions. The method combines the use of underlying ethics principles, more specifically the theories of egalitarianism and sufficientarianism, in combination with accessibility-based analysis and the Lorenz curve and Gini index. We then demonstrate the method in a case study example. Our suggestion is that policymakers can use these ethical perspectives to determine the equity of their policies decisions and to set minimum standards for local transport delivery. This will help them to become more confident in the development and adoption of new decision frameworks that promote accessibility over mobility and which also disaggregate the costs and benefits of transport policies over particular areas or for specific under-served population groups.     

Introducing environmental equity dimensions into the sustainable transport discourse: issues and pitfalls

Environmental equity considerations should be an essential ingredient of any sustainable transport strategy. Yet, it is unclear how environmental equity considerations can be incorporated into the sustainable transport discourse in a meaningful manner. The paper explores the multiple facets of the meaning of environmental equity in the case of transport. Then, the issues that need to be addressed in any analysis of each facet are delineated. On this basis it is suggested that the conventional environmental equity analysis, whereby the affected areas are compared to unaffected areas, is unlikely to render robust or meaningful results. Rather, the focus of research should be on the equity implications of policies geared to mitigate transport systems' environmental externalities, and on comparisons of users of the different transportation systems to those exposed to the negative environmental externalities of these systems. The results of such studies could provide direct inputs into comprehensive balanced policy packages within a sustainable transport strategy.     

Transport and society1

In 1963, the Buchanan Report in the UK advocated a combination of new road capacity, improved public transport and traffic restraint as a means to tackle congestion. Forty years on, and the advice from many transport experts remains the same. However, the scale and complexity of the problems associated with a mobility‐dependent society have grown. The need for politicians to make tough but realistic policy decisions on transport is now becoming unavoidable. They must confront the realities of living with the car as must the general public. Policymakers now also have social well‐being and sustainable development moving higher on their agendas alongside transport. Against such a backdrop, the paper makes the case for transport research, policy and practice to acknowledge more fully the inherent links between transport and society. It argues that greater recognition and understanding of such links is crucial to confronting the present realities. Transport does not merely serve society: it shapes society, as in turn society shapes transport. The future of each is dependent on the other, and this fact must be recognized. The paper advocates in turn that the transport profession must move from its heartlands in engineering and economics also to embrace more fully such disciplines as sociology and psychology. A factual picture of the many facets of present‐day society is presented and the implications for travel demand are discussed. Through considering phenomena such as social norms and habitual behaviour, it is then argued that the travel choices and behaviour of individuals are not simply a matter of economic optimization. This points to the need for decision‐makers to be furnished with better evidence about the transport problems faced and the potential efficacy of measures that might be taken. Discussion of public attitudes and the role of the media are included in the context of assessing how politicians can be encouraged and supported in their implementation of realistic but unpopular policies. Evidence and experience within the paper are UK based, although many of the issues and arguments apply world wide.     

Towards a more equitable distribution of resources: Using activity-based models and subjective well-being measures in transport project evaluation

In this paper, we develop an innovative and comprehensive transport evaluation criterion to better account for equity considerations in transport project evaluation. This work explores transportation benefits from the consumer’s perspective to accessibility as a key benefit generated by any transportation project. To assess the full benefits of transportation project implementation for various consumers and calculate the improvement in accessibility, it is best to use Activity-Based Models (ABM). ABMs have two important advantages for equity analysis, which have not been utilized in the literature so far: first, ability to analyze results by various groups of the population; second, these models can utilize the Activity Based Accessibility (ABA) measure to estimate the overall benefits from transport investments and policies. The ABA measure allows one person to have different accessibilities for different choice situations, depending on his/her characteristics. We suggest including social and spatial factors in social welfare assessment by introducing the concept of accessibility gains to key social activities. Specifically, it is suggested to incorporate subjective well-being consideration into a new evaluation framework “Equity Benefit Analysis” (EBA). we use an alternative measure, “Subjective Value of Accessibility gains” (SVOA), which is based on the ABM accessibility measure as well as on Subjective Well-Being (SWB) measure, as the key benefit taken into account in the evaluation process. The SVOA is not intended to replace the current practice of analyzing equity by comparing various impacts on different groups of the population, but can aid by providing policymakers with a single measure advancing both equity and efficiency considerations and facilitating comparison among alternatives. Initial case study results indicate the SVOA can show higher benefits to policies focusing on the needs of vulnerable social groups that compared traditional measures.     

Urban transportation and decision making — A comparison of three case studies in Britain

In spite of the impacts that new transportation facilities have upon the economic, social and political structures of established urban areas, the decision process leading to policy formation and plan implementation has received little, if any, attention. Case studies of three County Boroughs in Britain having different urban transport policies suggest that the decision making process is dominated by groups and individuals who attempt to implement policies which benefit the sectional interests which they represent. Within a changing relevant environment, local technicians, politicians and community groups compete and form coalitions in order to acquire authority and implement their own notions of justice and equity in the adaptation of the built environment.     

Integrating e-scooters in urban transportation: Problems,policies, and the prospect of system change

Throughout the world, cities seek to ease transport-related problems of congestion, air pollution, noise, and traffic injuries. Urban transport planners have welcomed e-scooters as an alternative to motorized individual transport, specifically the car. The public has met e-scooters with both enthusiasm and scepticism, as cities have struggled with unforeseen outcomes such as forms of irresponsible riding, cluttering, or vandalism. This paper investigates the challenges associated with the introduction of e-scooters in ten major cities, based on a content analysis of local media reports. News items (n = 173) were identified through Internet searches and include print media, TV and radio websites. Concerns prior to and after the introduction of e-scooters are assessed, analysed, and interpreted in the context of new policies for this transport mode. Results suggest that many cities have moved through trial and error stages in their search for appropriate legislation. The paper concludes that it is prudent for urban planners to introduce policies regarding maximum speeds, mandatory use of bicycle infrastructure, and dedicated parking, as well as to limit the number of licensed operators. Where negative public opinion can be averted, e-scooters stand a chance to become a disruptive niche innovation with the potential to transform urban transport systems.     

Role model advocacy for sustainable transport

Individual aspirations of associating with role models are routinely harnessed by marketers, who for instance, use celebrity endorsement in selling brands and products. It appears there has been no research to date, however, on the potential for celebrity activism, or role model advocacy beyond celebrities, such as from politicians, to form effective interventions for encouraging sustainable transport behavior. This is despite studies suggesting that celebrity endorsement is a potential gateway for transforming public opinion on carbon intensive transport modes. The present paper consequently offers a critical review of the literature on role model advocacy and celebrity activism, and how these concepts have been harnessed to address environmental issues, in order to conceptually assess the potential for extending these intervention techniques to the context of sustainable transport. The scope of the paper includes the potential that high profile politicians/celebrities might play as role models in exercising referent power to influence social norms surrounding sustainable transport, given that the success of social marketing interventions are closely tied to the need for changes in the policy landscape. Key dimensions of role model endorsement in transport are identified and applied to a series of examples of how celebrity and political role models have influenced transport cultures. In addition to offering an original application of a theoretical framework to a new context, in order to help address the increasingly important societal issue of transport’s growing contribution to climate change, the paper discusses the challenges associated with the neoliberal framing of this approach.     

Insights on disruptions as opportunities for transport policy change

Policy change is characterised as being slow and incremental over long time periods. In discussing a radical shift to a low carbon economy, many researchers identify a need for a more significant and rapid change to transport policy and travel patterns. However, it is not clear what is meant by rapid policy change and what conditions might be needed to support its delivery.Our contention in this paper is that notions of habit and stability dominate thinking about transport trends and the policy responses to them. We limit variability in our data collection and seek to design policies and transport systems that broadly support the continuation of existing practices. This framing of the policy context limits the scale of change deemed plausible and the scope of activities and actions that could be used to effect it.This paper identifies evidence from two sources to support the contention that more radical policy change is possible. First, there is a substantial and on-going churn in household travel behaviour which, harnessed properly over the medium term, could provide the raw material for steering behaviour change. Secondly, there is a growing evidence base analysing significant events at local, regional and national level which highlight how travellers can adapt to major change to network conditions, service availability and social norms. Taken together, we contend that the population is far more adaptable to major change than the policy process currently assumes.Disruptions and the responses to them provide a window on the range of adaptations that are possible (and, given that we can actually observe people carrying them out, could be more widely acceptable) given the current configuration of the transport system. In other words, if we conceptualise the system as one in which disruptions are commonplace, then different policy choices become tractable. Policy change itself can also be seen as a positive disruption, which could open up a raft of new opportunities to align policy implementation with the capacity for change. However, when set against the current framing of stability and habit, disruption can also be a major political embarrassment. We conclude that rather than being inherently problematic, disruption are in fact an opportunity through which to construct a different approach to transport policy that might enable rather than frustrate significant, low carbon change.     

Transport policy evaluation in metropolitan areas: The role of modelling in decision-making

The adoption of Integrated Urban Models (IUMs) is increasingly being recognized as a tool to support transport policy appraisals in metropolitan areas. In Canada, the ILUTE (Integrated Land Use Transportation Environment) project is an IUM framework currently under development. While model development is undertaken by academics, the implementation of ILUTE is meant to occur within planning organizations thus rendering the success of model application dependent on available resources for modelling and planners’ attitudes towards the role of models. In an attempt to render the ILUTE modelling framework more “policy-sensitive”, a survey was conducted with planners and policy-makers pertaining to the three levels of government (municipal, provincial, and federal) in Canada. The survey collects information with respect to the current evaluation process of transport policy and its associated pitfalls as well as the desired state of policy appraisal and the need for more formal evaluation tools. Results show the presence of numerous challenges working against the proper development, adoption, and refining of models. The most notable of which include a general disbelief in the usefulness of models for decision-making, lack of resources for large-scale modelling exercises, and poor institutional integration among government departments. While local and national planning goals reflect the recent challenges of promoting environmental preservation, reducing social inequities, and improving the quality of life, modelling tools that can assess the impacts of proposed policies on these goals have lagged behind.     

Towards a transport policy for the ECOWAS subregion

This paper examines transport policy development in a regional grouping of states whose present transport policies reflect their differing colonial pasts. In addition to locational and physical factors, vested interests in preserving present arrangements, lack of assessment of the repercussions of integration, and lack of political will to surrender to a supra‐national authority decisions which will be binding at the national level are identified as major factors militating against the successful formulation of a common transport policy in West Africa.

It is suggested that, although major changes of policy are often difficult and costly to implement, there is the need to effect institutional changes within the subregion in order to achieve the transport objectives of the ECOWAS treaty.     

Multimodal travel groups and attitudes: A latent class cluster analysis of Dutch travelers

For developing sustainable travel policies, it may be helpful to identify multimodal travelers, that is, travelers who make use of more than one mode of transport within a given period of time. Of special interest is identifying car drivers who also use public transport and/or bicycle, as this group is more likely to respond to policies that stimulate the use of those modes. It is suggested in the literature that this group may have less biased perceptions and different attitudes towards those modes. This supposition is examined in this paper by conducting a latent class cluster analysis, which identifies (multi)modal travel groups based on the self-reported frequency of mode use. Simultaneously, a membership function is estimated to predict the probability of belonging to each of the five identified (multi)modal travel groups, as a function of attitudinal variables in addition to structural variables. The results indicate that the (near) solo car drivers indeed have more negative attitudes towards public transport and bicycle, while frequent car drivers who also use public transport have less negative public transport attitudes. Although the results suggest that in four of the five identified travel groups, attitudes are congruent with travel mode use, this is not the case for the group who uses public transport most often. This group has relatively favorable car attitudes, and given that many young, low-income travelers belong to this group, it may be expected that at least part of this group will start using car more often once they can afford it. Based on the results, challenges for sustainable policies are formulated for each of the identified (multi)modal travel groups.     

Institutional issues in planning for more uncertain futures

Future travel demand has always been difficult to estimate. Recent trends of a slow down or stagnation in traffic growth combined with substantial demographic, economic, and technological shifts further complicate that task. This poses a significant planning challenge given that decision-making is often based on the benefits of infrastructure investments which accrue over periods as long as 60 years. In contrast to the changing ideas around what mobility in the future will look like and the types of demand it may need to service, the practice of forecasting future travel demand remains largely unchanged as do the decision-making processes which flow from this. Alternative approaches to thinking about futures such as scenario planning exist but have had more limited deployment in the transport sector. This paper explores the institutional issues surrounding the purpose, practice and barriers to changing the approaches of forecasting and decision-making through an exploration of the state of practice in the UK drawing on interviews with 23 practitioners. Drawing on Hall’s work on policy change, the research finds that there is a strong policy paradigm built around the relationships between transport investment and traffic growth. This has strengthened since the recession with an increased focus on the relationship between transport and job creation. The forecasting approaches in use today are an important part of a complex decision-making apparatus reflective of specialized policy arenas like transport. Challenges in acknowledging, representing and communicating uncertainty are identified leaving a growing tension between planning visions and planning practice. We conclude by reflecting on events which may stimulate a broader reframing of how we plan for transport futures whilst embracing key uncertainties.

     

Accelerating the transformation to a low carbon passenger transport system: The role of car purchase taxes,feebates, road taxes and scrappage incentives in the UK

The transition to a low carbon transport world requires a host of demand and supply policies to be developed and deployed. Pricing and taxation of vehicle ownership plays a major role, as it affects purchasing behavior, overall ownership and use of vehicles. There is a lack in robust assessments of the life cycle energy and environmental effects of a number of key car pricing and taxation instruments, including graded purchase taxes, vehicle excise duties and vehicle scrappage incentives. This paper aims to fill this gap by exploring which type of vehicle taxation accelerates fuel, technology and purchasing behavioral transitions the fastest with (i) most tailpipe and life cycle greenhouse gas emissions savings, (ii) potential revenue neutrality for the Treasury and (iii) no adverse effects on car ownership and use.The UK Transport Carbon Model was developed further and used to assess long term scenarios of low carbon fiscal policies and their effects on transport demand, vehicle stock evolution, life cycle greenhouse gas emissions in the UK. The modeling results suggest that policy choice, design and timing can play crucial roles in meeting multiple policy goals. Both CO₂ grading and tightening of CO₂ limits over time are crucial in achieving the transition to low carbon mobility. Of the policy scenarios investigated here the more ambitious and complex car purchase tax and feebate policies are most effective in accelerating low carbon technology uptake, reducing life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and, if designed carefully, can avoid overburdening consumers with ever more taxation whilst ensuring revenue neutrality. Highly graduated road taxes (or VED) can also be successful in reducing emissions; but while they can provide handy revenue streams to governments that could be recycled in accompanying low carbon measures they are likely to face opposition by the driving population and car lobby groups. Scrappage schemes are found to save little carbon and may even increase emissions on a life cycle basis.The main policy implication of this work is that in order to reduce both direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions from transport governments should focus on designing incentive schemes with strong up-front price signals that reward ‘low carbon’ and penalize ‘high carbon’. Policy instruments should also be subject to early scrutiny of the longer term impacts on government revenue and pay attention to the need for flanking policies to boost these revenues and maintain the marginal cost of driving.     

Examining transport futures with scenario analysis and MCA

Climate change is a global problem and across the world the transport sector is finding it difficult to break projected increases in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions; there are very few contexts where deep reductions in transport CO₂ emissions are being made. A number of research studies are now examining the potential for future lower CO₂ emissions in the transport sector. This paper develops this work to consider some of the wider sustainability impacts (economic, social and local environmental) as well as the lower CO₂ transport impacts of different policy trajectories. Hence the central argument made is for an integrated approach to transport policy making over the longer term - incorporating scenario analysis and multi-criteria assessment (MCA) - to help assess likely progress against a range of objectives.The analysis is based on work carried out in Oxfordshire, UK. Different packages of measures are selected and two scenarios developed which satisfy lower CO₂ aspirations, one of which also provides wider positive sustainability impacts. A simulation model has been produced to help explore the strategic policy choices and tensions evident for decision-makers involved in local transport planning. The paper argues for a ‘strategic conversation’ (Van der Heijden, 1996) at the sub-regional and city level, based upon future scenario analysis and MCA, discussing the priorities for intervention. Such an approach will help us examine the scale of change and trade-offs required in moving towards sustainable transport futures.     

A framework to evaluate policy options for supporting electric vehicles in urban freight transport

Electric vehicles (EVs) are considered as a feasible alternative to traditional vehicles. Few studies have addressed the impacts of policies supporting EVs in urban freight transport. To cast light on this topic, we established a framework combining an optimization model with economic analysis to determine the optimal behavior of an individual delivery service provider company and social impacts (e.g., externalities and welfare) in response to policies designed to support EVs, such as purchase subsidy, limited access (zone fee) to congestion/low-emission zones with exemptions for EVs, and vehicle taxes with exemptions for EVs. Numerical experiments showed that the zone fee can increase the company’s total logistics costs but improve the social welfare. It greatly reduced the external cost inside the congestion/low-emission zone with a high population, dense pollution, and heavy traffic. The vehicle taxes and subsidy were found to have the same influence on the company and society, although they have different effects with low tax/subsidy rates because their different effects on vehicle routing plans. Finally, we performed a sensitivity analysis. Local factors at the company and city levels (e.g., types of vehicle and transport network) are also important to designing efficient policies for urban logistics that support EVs.     

An integrated assessment of alternative land-based passenger transport policies: A case study in Tenerife

Over recent decades, there have been numerous cases of land-based transport policies that have lacked clear and coherent strategies. This has not only hampered the resolution of issues like road congestion, but has also created new ones (e.g. strong social opposition to new train infrastructures). The absence of such strategies highlights the need for long-term transport policies with a wider vision of the issues, since land-based transport cannot be considered from just a technical perspective.The main objective of this article is to implement a participatory integrated approach to facilitate the understanding of land-based passenger transport governance issues on Tenerife, in the Canary Islands. Relevant policy issues and alternatives are identified by the stakeholders involved. The inclusion of stakeholders in the assessment process is crucial to frame transport governance issues appropriately and to define and assess plausible policy alternatives. This assessment process even included a final step of validation of the results by stakeholders to foster discussion among them about transport issues and policy alternatives.Finally, due to the obstructive role played by some stakeholders in influencing past transport policies, an analysis of possible coalitions among stakeholders is also discussed.     

Future prospects for personal security in travel by public transport

This paper reports findings from a project focused on understanding the interaction between transport technologies and user needs and perceptions in supporting personal security in travel by public transport. The research engaged over 60 experts from across the UK transport sector in a combination of interviews, workshops and scenario planning activities to address a set of four application areas in relation to secure travel. These areas were information provision, travel disruption, automated transport services and flexible transport services. Four future scenario narratives (to a 2040 time horizon) were developed for each application area. A final workshop consolidated and reviewed the narrative scenarios and pulled out key themes and priority issues for policy, practice and research for the near term. Consequently a set of policy recommendations, operator and business opportunities, knowledge gaps and research priorities were identified to support and enhance provision for personal security in travel by public transport.