A hybrid scheme for real‐time prediction of bus trajectories

The uncertainty associated with public transport services can be partially counteracted by developing real‐time models to predict downstream service conditions. In this study, a hybrid approach for predicting bus trajectories by integrating multiple predictors is proposed. The prediction model combines schedule, instantaneous and historical data. The contribution of each predictor as well as values of respective parameters is estimated by minimizing the prediction error using a linear regression heuristic. The hybrid method was applied to five bus routes in Stockholm, Sweden, and Brisbane, Australia. The results indicate that the hybrid method consistently outperforms the timetable and delay conservation prediction method for different route layouts, passenger demands and operation practices. Model validation confirms model transferability and real‐time applicability. Generating more accurate predictions can help service users adjust their travel plans and service providers to deploy proactive management and control strategies to mitigate the negative effects of service disturbances. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Market Orientation in Public Transport Research—A Review

It is commonly argued that, in order to meet increasing competition, public transport organizations and systems need to be market oriented. Even though the notion of market orientationhas not been explicitly addressed in public transport research, studies relevant to market orientation have been conducted. The aim of this paper is to introduce the concept of market orientation into the field of public transport, to review previous research into market orientation in public transport research, and to suggest directions for future research. Market orientation is defined as the generation and dissemination of market intelligence by organizations, as well as responses to it. The review suggests that previous academic research has focused on intelligence generation by developing and using models for measuring travel behaviour, stated preferences, perceived customer quality, and satisfaction. Studies of responsiveness have mainly addressed the physical improvements made in public transport organizations, which is also the primary concern of the industry research accounted for. There has been less research into the dissemination of market intelligence, the drivers of market orientation, the relations between the elements, and the overall concept of market orientation in public transport. It is thus concluded that future public transport research needs to address these issues.     

The Movingo integrated ticket: seamless connections across the mälardalen region of Sweden

ABSTRACT

The need for improved public transport (PT) ticketing in ever-growing deregulated PT markets has made well-designed integrated ticketing systems a priority area of intervention for PT service providers around the world. Yet, very little practical evidence of its impacts are reported in Sweden and in the world at large. The focus of this study was the impacts of the Movingo integrated ticketing scheme in terms of PT patronage, user satisfaction and the perceived quality of the ticketing set-up. Three travel surveys were conducted along the Stockholm-Uppsala route. Methods including logistic regression and correlated t-tests were used to analyse the samples. The findings suggest that the scheme made rail commuting more attractive resulting in an overall increase of about 24% in ticket sales with 3% – 15% car commuters reporting that they patronised PT services after the project. The scheme also resulted in increased rail commuter satisfaction. The overall perceived quality of the ticketing set-up did not however improve due to interoperability challenges. Service providers’ uncertainty about equitable distribution of revenue among the participating service providers, interoperability challenges and the lack of interest among most of the participating service providers to sell Movingo tickets are some issues to be addressed.     

Evaluating the added-value of online bus arrival prediction schemes

Online predictions of bus arrival times have the potential to reduce the uncertainty associated with bus operations. By better anticipating future conditions, online predictions can reduce perceived and actual passenger travel times as well as facilitate more proactive decision making by service providers. Even though considerable research efforts were devoted to the development of computationally expensive bus arrival prediction schemes, real-world real-time information (RTI) systems are typically based on very simple prediction rules. This paper narrows down the gap between the state-of-the-art and the state-of-the-practice in generating RTI for public transport systems by evaluating the added-value of schemes that integrate instantaneous data and dwell time predictions. The evaluation considers static information and a commonly deployed scheme as a benchmark. The RTI generation algorithms were applied and analyzed for a trunk bus network in Stockholm, Sweden. The schemes are assessed and compared based on their accuracy, reliability, robustness and potential waiting time savings. The impact of RTI on passengers waiting times are compared with those attained by service frequency and regularity improvements. A method which incorporates information on downstream travel conditions outperforms the commonly deployed scheme, leading to a 25% reduction in the mean absolute error. Furthermore, the incorporation of instantaneous travel times improves the prediction accuracy and reliability, and contributes to more robust predictions. The potential waiting time gains associated with the prediction scheme are equivalent to the gains expected when introducing a 60% increase in service frequency, and are not attainable by service regularity improvements.     

Experiences with Competitive Tendering of Bus Services in Germany

Abstract

After a long transition period with only a few isolated procedures for competitive tendering, the market for German public transport bus services has seen numerous such tenders in recent years. The results are complex. From the public transport authorities’ point of view, the main effects are a decrease in subsidy payments, with relatively low expenses relating to the tendering process (allocation, contract management). The overall level of competition is high, with five to seven bidders on average, although this has been declining in recent years. Entry barriers have been identified at significant levels for several parameters, especially with respect to the volume tendered and the revenue risk to be borne by the operator out of net‐cost contracts. Demonstrably small‐ and medium‐sized transport operators have been able to increase their market share in the starting phase of introducing tendering, with diminishing success rates in recent years. Due to the increased quality requirements in competitive tendering, the quality of public transport available has improved considerably, and environmental standards have been better implemented and sustained. As far as employees are concerned, a trend towards wages below the wage rate of private operators cannot be observed. However, their level is well below the level of public incumbent operators.     

Efficient contracting and incentive agreements between regulators and bus operators: The influence of risk preferences of contracting agents on contract choice

Contracts that govern transactions between regulators and operators are an important feature of service delivery in public transport. This paper reviews the literature on efficient contracting in general and its application to public transport contracts and found little empirical evidence on the influence of risk preferences of contracting agents on contract choice, a fundamental premise of classical contracting theory. Departing from the existing literature, this paper develops a choice experiment to study public transport operators’ preferences for different contractual forms. People involved in the public transport industry across Australia are invited to do the survey but the respondents are mainly bus operators in New South Wales. The respondents are offered two hypothetical contracts with different risk profiles and incentives and asked to indicate their preferences as well as their acceptance to provide the services under the contract they prefer. A non-linear scaled multinomial logit model is estimated to establish the role of risk allocation on contract preference of bus operators and the optimal amount of risks and incentives, conditioned on the operators’ attitude towards risk. The results help authorities design performance-based contracts to obtain their objectives while maintaining the operators’ level of satisfaction.     

Do the organizational forms affect passenger satisfaction? Evidence from Chinese public transport service

This paper presents a discussion on the relationship between organizational forms (including the ownership structure and the contractual practices) and passenger satisfaction of Chinese public transport service. To test this proposition, an original rich data set covering 4702 respondents and 58 public transport operators of 13 cities for the period 2013–2014 is used. We firstly estimate the passenger satisfaction based on customer satisfaction theory and PLS-SEM, and then take into consideration the mixed logit model to assess the effect between them. Conclusions drawn from the study are summarized as follows: ① The effect of organizational forms on the passenger satisfaction of public transport service is confirmed. ② Public transport services franchised to public ownership offer higher passenger satisfaction than those franchised to private ownership and mixed ownership. ③ Public transport services regulated by the management contracts incite more passenger satisfaction than those regulated by net cost contracts and gross cost contracts.     

Predicting disruptions and their passenger delay impacts for public transport stops

Disruptions in public transport can have major implications for passengers and service providers. Our study objective is to develop a generic approach to predict how often different disruption types occur at different stations of a public transport network, and to predict the impact related to these disruptions as measured in terms of passenger delays. We propose a supervised learning approach to perform these predictions, as this allows for predictions for individual stations for each time period, without the requirement of having sufficient empirical disruption observations available for each location and time period. This approach also enables a fast prediction of disruption impacts for a large number of disruption instances, hence addressing the computational challenges that rise when typical public transport assignment or simulation models would be used for real-world public transport networks. To improve transferability of our study results, we cluster stations based on their contribution to network vulnerability using unsupervised learning. This supports public transport agencies to apply the appropriate type of measure aimed to reduce disruptions or to mitigate disruption impacts for each station type. Applied to the Washington metro network, we predict a yearly passenger delay of 5.9 million hours for the total metro network. Based on the clustering, five different types of station are distinguished. Stations with high train frequencies and high passenger volumes located at central trunk sections of the network show to be most critical, along with start/terminal and transfer stations. Intermediate stations located at branches of a line are least critical.

     

Unified estimator for excess journey time under heterogeneous passenger incidence behavior using smartcard data

Excess journey time (EJT), the difference between actual passenger journey times and journey times implied by the published timetable, strikes a useful balance between the passenger’s and operator’s perspectives of public transport service quality. Using smartcard data, this paper tried to characterize transit service quality with EJT under heterogeneous incidence behavior (arrival at boarding stations). A rigorous framework was established for analyzing EJT, in particular for reasoning about passenger’ journey time standards as implied by varying incidence behavior. It was found that although the wrong assumption about passenger incidence behavior and journey time standards could result in a biased estimate of EJT for individual passenger journeys, the unified estimator of EJT proposed in this paper is unbiased at the aggregate level regardless of the passenger incidence behavior (random incidence, scheduled incidence, or a mixture of both). A case study based on the London Overground network (with a tap-in-and-tap-out smartcard system) was conducted to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method. EJT was estimated using the smartcard (Oyster) data at various levels of spatial and temporal aggregation in order to measure and evaluate the service quality. Aggregate EJT was found to vary substantially across the different London Overground lines and across time periods of weekday service.     

广西优先发展公共交通思路探析

文章从广西城市客运行业发展的现状出发,提出优先发展公共交通示范城市试点工程的工作思路,并在深入分析广西城市客运行业存在问题的基础上,提出了行业发展的初步设想.     

New routes on old railways: increasing rail’s mode share within the constraints of the existing railway network

This paper describes an integrated methodology for identifying potential ‘quick wins’ for mode shift from road to passenger rail transport. Firstly, a procedure for analysing rail’s relative competitiveness in the market for passenger transport between large urban areas is developed and then applied to a UK case study. The purpose of such analysis is to allow the identification of flows where rail is currently relatively uncompetitive (in terms of journey time in particular) and to assess the reasons for this poor performance, so that the issues which suppress rail use may be addressed. In parallel, a framework, methodology and tool for the assessment of existing and potential capacity (trains, seats, TEUs, etc.) is developed for both passenger and freight traffic, to identify and address network constraints. An illustrative example of the use of these demand and capacity assessment tools is then presented, with the tools used to identify and evaluate flows where rail demand is suppressed by poor service quality and where spare capacity exists which would allow the passenger rail service to be improved without requiring significant investments in infrastructure. The effects of such improvements on demand are predicted, and the cost implications of operating such additional services are discussed. The analysis suggests that there may be significant potential for increasing rail’s mode share by providing additional inter-urban services where rail currently offers an inferior service.     

A model of the vicious cycle of a bus line

It has been frequently noted that in a non-regulated environment the development of public transport service is self-adjusting: Faced with decreasing demand, operators will tend to reduce service to cut costs, resulting in a decrease in the level-of-service, which then triggers a further drop in demand. The opposite may also occur: high demand will induce the operator to increase supply, e.g. through an increase in frequency, which results in a higher level-of-service and a subsequent increase in passenger numbers, triggering another round of service improvements. This paper adds to the literature by presenting an analytic model for analyzing these phenomena that we call vicious and virtuous cycles. Based on field data regarding passengers’ variation in willingness-to-wait for a public transport service, we investigate the dynamics of the line service and show how the emergence of a vicious or virtuous cycle depends on the total number of potential passengers, the share of captive riders, and bus capacity. The paper ends with a discussion of the implications of the findings for the planning of public transport services.     

基于广西旅游业的道路客运发展探析

文章针对广西道路旅客运输的现状及广西道路客运企业发展旅游业的优越条件,以＂运游结合＂为切入点,介绍以快捷优质的客运服务带动＂慢旅游＂道路客运企业发展旅游业的新模式,对采取＂运游结合＂经营模式,提高服务质量,发展＂慢旅游＂提出了相关的建议。     

Control of vehicle ownership and market competition: theory and Singapore’s experience with the vehicle quota system

This paper studies the impact of vehicle quota system on the market structure of Singapore’s car distributorship industry. Using recently available data, we analyzed the populations and new registrations of different brands of passenger car and motorcycle. We found an increase in market concentration in the car distributorship industry, as the market shares of the top distributors have increased steadily, even though the annual growth rate of vehicle population is capped at 3% per annum. We also found that average dealership markups for passenger cars for the period August–September 2002 are similar to those reported in earlier studies. We relate these empirical findings to a theoretical model of a differentiated-good oligopoly operating under an industry sales constraint.     

我国商用车电动化发展趋势分析

发展新能源汽车发展是缓解能源危机和环境污染的重大战略举措,也是汽车产业升级必由之路。近几年在政策大力支持下,新能源汽车产业突飞猛进,尤其乘用车领域,涌现出大批优秀企业与产品,市场化趋势明显。但是在商用车领域,新能源汽车发展受政策影响明显,随着补贴政策的退坡,规模有所萎缩。从全球大环境和国内环境来看,未来商用车领域电动化存在很大的发展空间。本文从市场现状切入,结合新能源汽车发展政策环境,运用SWOT方法分析我国商用车电动化发展趋势。     

荔浦县农村客运安全管理探讨

文章针对荔浦县农村客运发展现状,分析了当前农村客运市场发展存在的安全问题,提出了加强荔浦县农村客运市场安全管理的措施,为该县构建安全、和谐的农村客运市场提供思路。     

Modeling the interaction between buses,passengers and cars on a bus route using a multi-agent system

This paper models part of a public transport network (PTN), specifically, a bus route, as a small-size multi-agent system (MAS). The proposed approach is applied to a case study considering a ‘real world’ bus line within the PTN in Auckland, New Zealand. The MAS-based analysis uses modeling and simulation to examine the characteristics of the observed system – autonomous agents interacting with one another – under different scenarios, considering bus capacity and frequency of service for existing and projected public transport (PT) demand. A simulation model of a bus route is developed, calibrated and validated. Several results are attained, such as when the PT passenger load is not close to bus capacity, this load has no effect on average passenger waiting time at bus stops. The model proposed can be useful to practitioners as a tool to model the interaction between buses and other agents.     

基于高速铁路常旅客计划的全流程智慧行李服务方案构建

随着"铁路畅行"和"客运提质计划"的提出,提供高质量、个性化的旅客服务成为高速铁路客运发展的关键方向。为打造全新旅客行李服务概念,基于"铁路畅行"会员常旅客计划,构建全流程、门到门智慧行李服务方案,从旅客需求角度出发,采取"人货分离"模式,突破传统站内行李服务的模式,拓宽业务场景,延长商业链,形成一套系统完整的方案。全流程智慧行李服务作为一项新的服务模式,为培育旅客需求,提高顾客粘合度,挖掘高铁行李服务的潜在市场,优化铁路盈利结构,加快构建铁路客运服务体系,提升铁路在运输市场的竞争力提供支持。     

Demi-flexible operating policies to promote the performance of public transit in low-demand areas

The efforts of providing attractive transport service to residents in sparse communities have previously focused on operating flexible transit services. This paper identifies a new category of transit policies, called demi-flexible operating policies, to fill the gap between flexible transit services and conventional fixed-route systems. The passenger cost function is defined as the performance measure of transit systems and the analytic work is performed based on a real-world flag-stop transit service, in which we compare its system performance with another two comparable systems, the fixed-route and flex-route services, at expected and unexpected demand levels in order to be closer to reality. In addition, the dynamic-station policy is introduced to assist the flex-route service to better deal with unexpectedly high demand. Experiments demonstrate the unique advantages of demi-flexible operating policies in providing affordable, efficient, and reliable transport service in low-demand operating environments and this work is helpful to optimize the unifying framework for designing public transit in suburban and rural areas.     

The ‘redheads’ of Niamey: an original way of providing urban transport

In Niamey, private motor vehicles carry 80% of those who use public transport. These vehicles are urban shared taxis called ‘redheads’ and run through the streets of the city in all directions. Their vital importance for the mobility of city‐dwellers justifies their strict supervision and the setting of fares by public authorities.

At present, the ‘redheads’ are in crisis. Taxi owners are no longer able to make a profit on their capital and are ceasing to invest. Urban buses are unable to replace taxis, for they operate at a large deficit. The government of Niger hopes to restore the level of transport service by means of new regulations for the taxi business in the city.

But this business is in the hands of both taxi owners and drivers, who, while partners in the operation, dispute over their share of the revenues. The aim of this article is to provide an economic and political analysis of this particular form of production of urban transport, in which employers who cannot control their companies, employees who reserve the profits of the business for themselves, and public authorities who are compelled to intervene, are coming face to face.