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1.
During the last years, many governments have set targets for increasing the share of biofuels in the transportation sector. Understanding consumer behavior is essential in designing policies that efficiently increase the uptake of cleaner technologies. In this paper we analyze adopters and non-adopters of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs). We use diffusion of innovation theory and the established notion that the social system and interpersonal influence play important roles in adoption. Based on a nationwide database of car owners we analyze interpersonal influence on adoption from three social domains: neighbors, family and coworkers. The results point primarily at a neighbor effect in that AFV adoption is more likely if neighbors also have adopted. The results also point at significant effects of interpersonal influence from coworkers and family members but these effects weaken or disappear when income, education level, marriage, age, gender and green party votes are controlled for. The results extend the diffusion of innovation and AFV literature with empirical support for interpersonal influence based on objective data where response bias is not a factor. Implications for further research, environmental and transport policy, and practitioners are discussed.  相似文献   

2.
This paper describes a life cycle model for performing level-playing field comparisons of the emissions, costs, and energy efficiency trade-offs of alternative fuel vehicles (AFV) through the fuel production chain and over a vehicle lifetime. The model is an improvement over previous models because it includes the full life cycle of the fuels and vehicles, free of the distorting effects of taxes or differential incentives. This spreadsheet model permits rapid analyses of scenarios in plots of trade-off curves or efficiency frontiers, for a wide range of alternatives with current and future prices and levels of technology. The model is available on request.The analyses indicate that reformulated gasoline (RFG) currently has the best overall performance for its low cost, and should be the priority alternative fuel for polluted regions. Liquid fuels based on natural gas, M100 or M85, may be the next option by providing good overall performance at low cost and easy compatibility with mainstream fuel distribution systems. Longer term, electric drive vehicles using liquid hydrocarbons in fuel cells may offer large emissions and energy savings at a competitive cost. Natural gas and battery electric vehicles may prove economically feasible at reducing emissions and petroleum consumption in niches determined by the unique characteristics of those systems.  相似文献   

3.
This paper analyzes the potential demand for privately used alternative fuel vehicles using German stated preference discrete choice data. By applying a mixed logit model, we find that the most sensitive group for the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles embraces younger, well-educated, and environmentally aware car buyers, who have the possibility to plug-in their car at home, and undertake numerous urban trips. Moreover, many households are willing to pay considerable amounts for greater fuel economy and emission reduction, improved driving range and charging infrastructure, as well as for enjoying vehicle tax exemptions and free parking or bus lane access. The scenario results suggest that conventional vehicles will maintain their dominance in the market. Finally, an increase in the battery electric vehicles’ range to a level comparable with all other vehicles has the same impact as a multiple measures policy intervention package.  相似文献   

4.
This paper presents an integrated simulator “CUIntegration” to evaluate routing strategies based on energy and/or traffic measures of effectiveness for any Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs). The CUIntegration can integrate vehicle models of conventional vehicles as well as AFVs developed with MATLAB-Simulink, and a roadway network model developed with traffic microscopic simulation software VISSIM. The architecture of this simulator is discussed in this paper along with a case study in which the simulator was utilized for evaluating a routing strategy for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) and Electric Vehicles (EVs). The authors developed a route optimization algorithm to guide an AFV based on that AFV driver’s choice, which included; finding a route with minimum (1) travel time, (2) energy consumption or (3) a combination of both. The Application Programming Interface (API) was developed using Visual Basic to simulate the vehicle models/algorithms developed in MATLAB and direct vehicles in a roadway network model developed in VISSIM accordingly. The case study included a section of Interstate 83 in Baltimore, Maryland, which was modeled, calibrated and validated. The authors considered a worst-case scenario with an incident on the main route blocking all lanes for 30 min. The PHEVs and EVs were represented by integrating the MATLAB-Simulink vehicle models with the traffic simulator. The CUIntegration successfully combined vehicle models with a roadway traffic network model to support a routing strategy for PHEVs and EVs. Simulation experiments with CUIntegration revealed that routing of PHEVs resulted in cost savings of about 29% when optimized for the energy consumption, and for the same optimization objective, routing of EVs resulted in about 64% savings.  相似文献   

5.
The transport sector has been identified as a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. As part of its emissions reduction strategy, the United Kingdom Government is demonstrating support for new vehicle technologies, paying attention, in particular, to electric vehicles.Cluster analysis was applied to Census data in order to identify potential alternative fuel vehicle drivers in the city of Birmingham, United Kingdom. The clustering was undertaken based on characteristics of age, income, car ownership, home ownership, socio-economic status and education. Almost 60% of areas that most closely fitted the profile of an alternative fuel vehicle driver were found to be located across four wards furthest from Birmingham city centre, while the areas with the poorest fit were located towards the centre of Birmingham. The paper demonstrates how Census data can be used in the initial stages of identifying potential early adopters of alternative vehicle drivers. It also shows how such research can provide scope for infrastructure planning and policy development for local and national authorities, while also providing useful marketing information to car manufacturers.  相似文献   

6.
The use of methanol as a transportation fuel may help the United States substantially reduce oil imports. However, significant reductions in U.S. oil imports will require that the current world methanol industry be much larger than it now is. This paper examines potential expansion rates of the world methanol industry. These expansion rates are used to determine the potential underutilization of flexible fuel vehicles caused by limitations on methanol supply. Depending on the specific comparison, methanol supply can be a constraint in the earlier years of methanol's use which limits the ability of the United States to substitute large volumes of oil with methanol.  相似文献   

7.
This paper presents in-service data collected from over 300 alternative fuel vehicles and over 80 fueling stations to help fleets determine what types of applications and alternative fuels may help them reduce their environmental impacts and fuel costs. The data were compiled in 2011 by over 30 organizations in New York State using a wide variety of commercial vehicle types and technologies. Fuel economy, incremental vehicle purchase cost, fueling station purchase cost, greenhouse gas reductions, and fuel cost savings data clarifies the performance of alternative fuel vehicles and fuel stations. Data were collected from a range of vehicle types, including school buses, delivery trucks, utility vans, street sweepers, snow plows, street pavers, bucket trucks, paratransit vans, and sedans. CNG, hybrid, LPG, and electric vehicles were tracked.  相似文献   

8.
The recent concerns on environmental issues have expedited the technological development of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), but the deployment of AFVs still remains at the initial stage mainly because of the lack of refuelling facilities. Recognising this, researchers have conducted various studies, proposing a variety of approaches to strategically locating refuelling stations. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the approaches, focusing more on applications than computational issues. The review identifies two main elements of the approaches: location modelling and refuelling demand estimation. Examining how the elements were handled in refuelling location studies, this paper suggests that future refuelling location models should properly reflect the intricate and various perspectives of three major AFV stakeholders: drivers, government agencies and refuelling service providers. This study is expected to help researchers efficiently set up their refuelling location problems and identify critical factors for seeking the solutions.  相似文献   

9.
Hong Kong was the first place in the world to implement a trial scheme to convert all public light buses (PLBs) on the road from diesel to alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs). The scheme, however, did not receive much support from PLB operators. At present, there is a rich literature on households’ demand for AFVs (especially in the USA). However, there have not been many studies about the demand for commercial AFVs in the business and public transport sectors. Since light buses running on alternative fuels are not widely available in the Hong Kong market, a stated preference (SP) survey was conducted to solicit the preferences of PLB operators on eight commercial vehicle attributes and seven forms of government support. The SP data are analyzed by multinomial logit (MNL) models. Detailed analyses on market segmentation and price elasticities follow. The results are of theoretical and practical significance.  相似文献   

10.
Greater adoption and use of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) can be environmentally beneficial and reduce dependence on gasoline. The use of AFVs vis-à-vis conventional gasoline vehicles is not well understood, especially when it comes to travel choices and short-term driving decisions. Using data that contains a sufficiently large number of early AFV adopters (who have overcome obstacles to adoption), this study explores differences in use of AFVs and conventional gasoline vehicles (and hybrid vehicles). The study analyzes large-scale behavioral data integrated with sensor data from global positioning system devices, representing advances in large-scale data analytics. Specifically, it makes sense of data containing 54,043,889 s of speed observations, and 65,652 trips made by 2908 drivers in 5 regions of California. The study answers important research questions about AFV use patterns (e.g., trip frequency and daily vehicle miles traveled) and driving practices. Driving volatility, as one measure of driving practice, is used as a key metric in this study to capture acceleration, and vehicular jerk decisions that exceed certain thresholds during a trip. The results show that AFVs cannot be viewed as monolithic; there are important differences within AFV use, i.e., between plug-in hybrids, battery electric, or compressed natural gas vehicles. Multi-level models are particularly appropriate for analysis, given that the data are nested, i.e., multiple trips are made by different drivers who reside in various regions. Using such models, the study also found that driving volatility varies significantly between trips, driver groups, and regions in California. Some alternative fuel vehicles are associated with calmer driving compared with conventional vehicles. The implications of the results for safety, informed consumer choices and large-scale data analytics are discussed.  相似文献   

11.
Previous research has shown that fairness, infringement on freedom, and perceived effectiveness are determinants of transport pricing acceptability. In the present study we investigate determinants of acceptability of environmental (carbon) taxation for which trust in government and environmental concern are additional determinants. Carbon taxation is an extension of fuel taxes and may thus be viewed as transport pricing. Our main focus is on the role played by personality traits. Structural equation modeling reveals that acceptability is related to the personality traits extraversion, agreeableness, and conscientiousness. Extraverted individuals have higher levels of trust in government which leads to higher acceptability. Also correlations between agreeableness and conscientiousness as well as environmental problem awareness and personal norm are observed. We discuss strategies for effective marketing of transportation policies considering how acceptability is related to personality traits.  相似文献   

12.
We study the fleet portfolio management problem faced by a firm deciding which alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) to choose for its fleet to minimise the weighted average of cost and risk, in a stochastic multi-period setting. We consider different types of technology and vehicles with heterogeneous capabilities. We propose a new time consistent recursive risk measure, the Recursive Expected Conditional Value at Risk (RECVaR), which we prove to be coherent. We then solve the problem for a large UK based company, reporting how the optimal policies are affected by risk aversion and by the clustering for each type of vehicle.  相似文献   

13.
Over recent decades, there have been numerous cases of land-based transport policies that have lacked clear and coherent strategies. This has not only hampered the resolution of issues like road congestion, but has also created new ones (e.g. strong social opposition to new train infrastructures). The absence of such strategies highlights the need for long-term transport policies with a wider vision of the issues, since land-based transport cannot be considered from just a technical perspective.The main objective of this article is to implement a participatory integrated approach to facilitate the understanding of land-based passenger transport governance issues on Tenerife, in the Canary Islands. Relevant policy issues and alternatives are identified by the stakeholders involved. The inclusion of stakeholders in the assessment process is crucial to frame transport governance issues appropriately and to define and assess plausible policy alternatives. This assessment process even included a final step of validation of the results by stakeholders to foster discussion among them about transport issues and policy alternatives.Finally, due to the obstructive role played by some stakeholders in influencing past transport policies, an analysis of possible coalitions among stakeholders is also discussed.  相似文献   

14.
This paper investigates the role of transport pricing in network design and describes two facts about flow pattern in a transportation system. The first, illustrated by an example of Braess paradox, is that adding a new link to the network does not necessarily minimize the total travel time. The second is that introducing of appropriate toll pricing may reduce not only the total network time but also the travel time for each individual traveller. It follows with the investigations of different system objectives and different pricing policies (only toll pricing and distance‐based pricing are considered), and shows how they affect the system performance and flow pattern. Lastly, a systematic optimization process is proposed for integrated planning of transport network and pricing policies.  相似文献   

15.
It is often argued that driverless vehicles will save lives. In this paper, we treat the ethical case for driverless vehicles seriously and show that it has radical implications for the future of transport. After briefly discussing the current state of driverless vehicle technology, we suggest that systems that rely upon human supervision are likely to be dangerous when used by ordinary people in real-world driving conditions and are unlikely to satisfy the desires of consumers. We then argue that the invention of fully autonomous vehicles that pose a lower risk to third parties than human drivers will establish a compelling case against the moral permissibility of manual driving. As long as driverless vehicles aren’t safer than human drivers, it will be unethical to sell them. Once they are safer than human drivers when it comes to risks to 3rd parties, then it should be illegal to drive them: at that point human drivers will be the moral equivalent of drunk robots. We also describe two plausible mechanisms whereby this ethical argument may generate political pressure to have it reflected in legislation. Freeing people from the necessity of driving, though, will transform the relationship people have with their cars, which will in turn open up new possibilities for the transport uses of the automobile. The ethical challenge posed by driverless vehicles for transport policy is therefore to ensure that the most socially and environmentally beneficial of these possibilities is realised. We highlight several key policy choices that will determine how likely it is that this challenge will be met.  相似文献   

16.
17.
The rate at which fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) might displace the conventional fleet is examined under constraints imposed by the limited availability of platinum. It concludes that a transition period as short as 31 years is not feasible. Under the most favorable circumstances, a complete transition of the US fleet to this new technology would require about 66 years and 10,800 net tonnes of platinum. Platinum demand for the US auto industry alone would amount to 48% of world production during much of that transition period. The effect of that demand on the price of platinum would add to the problem of reducing vehicle cost to a competitive range. If US platinum consumption were to remain at its current level of 16% of annual world production, fleet conversion would require 146 years. These results imply that, without alternative catalysts, fuel cells alone cannot adequately address the issues facing the current system of road transport.  相似文献   

18.
19.
This paper presents estimates of the rebound effect and other elasticities for the Canadian light-duty vehicle fleet using panel data at the provincial level from 1990 to 2004. We estimate a simultaneous three-equation model of aggregate demand for vehicle kilometers traveled, vehicle stock and fuel efficiency. Price and income elasticities obtained are broadly consistent with those reported in the literature. Among other results, an increase in the fuel price of 10% would reduce driving by ~2% in the long term and by 1% the average fuel consumption rate. Estimates of the short- and long-term rebound effects are ~8 and 20%, respectively. We also find that an increase in the gross domestic product per capita of 10% would cause an increase in driving distance of 2–3% and an increase of up to 4% in vehicle stock per adult. In terms of policy implications, our results suggest that: (1) the effectiveness of new fuel efficiency standards will be somewhat mitigated by the rebound effect and (2) fuel price increases have limited impacts on gasoline demand.
Philippe BarlaEmail:

Philippe Barla   is full professor at the economics department of Université Laval. He is currently the director of the research center GREEN and is a member of CDAT. He is conducting theoretical and empirical research on energy efficiency in the transportation sector. Bernard Lamonde   obtained his MA in economics in 2007 working on this project. He is working as an economist for Agence de l’efficacité énergique du Québec. Luis Miranda-Moreno   is professor at McGill Department of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics. He was post-doctoral student at CDAT when this research was carried out. His research interests include road safety, travel behaviour and demand modeling. Nathalie Boucher   holds a PhD in economics from Queens’ University. She is the executive director the CDAT a research center dedicated to improving knowledge about energy use in the Canadian private and commercial transportation sector.  相似文献   

20.
"除了油费和过路费,超限罚款已经上升为整车运输过程中的第三大成本.这让我们非常头疼."陆友物流(北京)有限公司总经理助理孟小平大倒苦水."现在对于超限的轿运车一次的处罚金额一般都在5000~10000元之间,而且往往重复罚款."  相似文献   

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