选举交互模型下的股市权益定价

运用停时理论及粒子选举交互作用系统,建立了一个包含两类投资者的股票价格模型,用以描述证券市场的单只证券价格过程波动的统计特性.基于统计分析方法,证明了标准化随机价格过程收敛于相应Black-Scholes模型的分布.讨论了该价格过程模型下的欧式未定权益的定价和套期保值问题.     

随机交互系统下证券波动的连锁反应

应用交互作用机制和统计物理方法，建立了描述同一证券市场中两支证券指数连锁反应的波动模型，用以研究两者之间存在交互反应的统计特性．借助于随机分析和双随机分离线模型探讨了证券连锁反应的概率分布，进而揭示出两支证券指数模型波动的概率测度的渐近性．同时讨论了交互作用下，单支证券指数波动的概率性质．最后对所建立金融模型的有限维概率分布收敛性进行了分析．     

我国上市公司IPO抑价分析

对2003～2004年我国深沪两交易所的IPO抑价情况进行统计分析,选择发行市盈率、中签率、流通比、最新收盘价格、每股收益、每股净资产等因素作为IPO抑价率的影响变量进行实证分析,得出2003～2004年我国的股票市场正走向成熟等结论。     

对股权分置改革认识的若干误区

在目前的股权分置过程中,人们对一股独大现象、股权分散与一股独大的优劣比较、股权分置改革对财务欺诈及公司业绩的影响等问题的认识上存在着一定的误区。为了保证股权分置改革的顺利进行,促进证券市场的健康发展,必须消除这些认识上的误区。     

Stock market forecasting with financial micro-blog based on sentiment and time series analysis

During the past few decades, time series analysis has become one popular method for solving stock forecasting problem. However, depending only on stock index series makes the performance of the forecast not good enough, because many external factors which may be involved are not taken into consideration. As a way to deal with it, sentiment analysis on online textual data of stock market can generate a lot of valuable information as a complement which can be named as external indicators. In this paper, a new method which combines the time series of external indicators and the time series of stock index is provided. A special text processing algorithm is proposed to obtain a weighted sentiment time series. In the experiment, we obtain financial micro-blogs from some famous portal websites in China. After that, each micro-blog is segmented and preprocessed, and then the sentiment value is calculated for each day. Finally, an NARX time series model combined with the weighted sentiment series is created to forecast the future value of Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSECI). The experiment shows that the new model makes an improvement in terms of the accuracy.     

完善我国资本市场可有效缓解流动性过剩

流动性过剩是我国经济体系面临的一个严峻问题,研究其发生的真正原因和解决途径对我国经济发展具有十分重要的意义。本文重点分析引起我国资本流动性过剩的真正原因是我国资本市场发展的不完善,并提出了发展我国资本市场,尤其是通过发展股票市场和债券市场来吸收我国过多的流动性的建议。     

上市公司配股政策的博弈论分析

通过对监管政策造成的上市公司预期收入缺口曲线的博弈分析，指出上市公司配股政策存在的弊端。配股政策是一种优惠政策，造成了公司业绩披露的混同均衡，进而造成市场效率的下降。从根本上解决这一问题的措施是放宽直至取消配股要求。当前可暂以净资产收益率作为配股依据，再选一些附加财务指标，这样即可部分克服混同均衡引起的信息甄别上的困难，也同时增加了上市公司操纵业绩的难度。     

VaR风险测量模型在我国股票市场中的应用

VaR是风险估值模型(Value at Risk)的简称，是近年来国外兴起的一种金融风险管理工具．本文在国内外学者的研究基础上，运用我国证券市场的有关数据对VaR风险测量模型在我国股票市场风险测量中的具体应用作了实证分析，旨在寻找一套符合我国国情的具有可操作性的证券市场风险测量体系，从而促进我国证券市场的健康发展．     

中国股市小市值组合的界定方法与实证研究

股票市场的规模效应主要指小市值股票能够在市场中获得超额收益的现象。但由于中国股市特殊的股权结构，近年来在国内规模效应研究和风格投资指标中应用了多种未统一的小市值组合界定方法。本文从规模效应的收益特征出发，以实证研究确定中国股市小市值组合的界定方法。研究结果说明，以股票总市值排序后的最小20％家上市公司构建组合，具有最显著的规模效应特征，是最具有风格投资导向价值的划分标准。     

Scale-Free Behavior in Weighted Stock Network

A weighted stock network model of stock market is presented based on the complex network theory. The model is a weighted random network, in which each vertex denotes a stock, and the weight assigned to each edge is the cross-correlation coefficient of returns. Analysis of A shares listed at Shanghai Stock Exchange finds that the influence-strength (IS) follows a power-law distribution with the exponent of 2.58. The empirical analysis results show that there are a few stocks whose price fluctuations can powerfully influence the price dynamics of other stocks in the same market. Further econometric analysis reveals that there are significant differences between the positive IS and the negative IS.     

金融期货对推进利率市场化的作用研究

分析了我国金融期货市场及利率市场化改革发展的现状,研究了金融期货发展对利率市场化改革的作用。     

论中小投资者权益保护

中国股市的低迷引发了资本市场情形的恶化。对此问题的解决也越来越紧迫。本文试图从投资者保护机制方面进行探讨。在对股市投资的“异象”进行分析的基础上,指出熊市"漫漫"的内在机理,并提出了相应的保护资本投资者的建议。     

Performance of price limits: Evidence from cross-listed stocks in China

Previous literature on price limit offers mixed empirical evidence on the effectiveness of price limits. This study complements the literature by providing a quasi-natural experiment to study the performance of price limit. We examine the effectiveness of price limit rule using cross-listed stocks in the Chinese stock markets and Hong Kong stock market. We find that the influence of price limit becomes weaker as limit-hitting stocks are traded more actively. Among stocks with high trading activity, the delay of efficient price discovery, the volatility spillover and the trading interference become statistically insignificant. This challenges the views of price limit critics. Additionally, we find that the effect of price limits on the trading is asymmetric for A-shares in the upward and downward price movements.     

China and emerging economies in global financial governance: Legitimacy,accountability and democracy

Global financial governance refers to the way in which global financial affairs are managed. As there is no global government, global financial governance typically involves a range of actors including states, as well as regional and international organizations aimed at negotiating responses to problems that affect more than one state or region, far from only providing the public good of financial stability through global economy integration and global financial legislation. In geopolitical context of the 21st century, emerging economies still have maintained a low profile in global financial governance, despite their growing economic power and the rhetoric of being a responsible great power, and there is little evidence that they will seek international leadership. Moreover, compared to the other emerging powers in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) group, China has under-participated in global governance in terms of contributing personnel, finance and ideas to major multilateral institutions and programs. It is really an interesting question in international economics and politics area. Firstly, this paper examines comparative data on the emerging economies countries’ participation in global financial governance and explains the reason why China has relatively low involvement in global financial governance. Secondly, this paper analyzes norms and legitimacy in global financial governance, and thus outlines the emerging economies constraints on public policy of global financial market integration in the light of the foregoing analysis of legitimacy, accountability and democracy. Finally, some global financial governance development strategy and possible policy solutions are discussed as well.     

上市公司财务预警的正则化逻辑回归模型

基于统计学习理论的正则化技术构建L1(一范数约束惩罚)正则化的逻辑回归(Logistic Regression)模型,同比建立了logistic回归模型和L2(二范数约束惩罚)正则化的logistic回归模型,结合沪深股市ST公司和正常公司的T-3年和T-2年财务数据进行仿真实验用于上市公司财务预警实证分析.实验结果表...     

Ising动力系统模拟收益率的多重分形分析

应用Ising模型和平均场理论构造符合股市收益率的动力系统,借助于计算机软件Mat-lab,利用蒙特卡洛模拟方法,通过调整参数模拟得出动力系统的收益率序列.分析发现：Ising动力系统构造的收益率同证券市场股票指数波动率一样具有厚尾等统计特征.对模拟收益率原序列和混洗后的序列进行多重分形分析,得出了模拟收益率序列存在分布多重分形和相关性多重分形的结论.     

IMPROVED GENETIC ALGORITHM TO OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO WITH RISK CONTROL

1IntroductionAlog-optimalinvestimentportfoliowithoutriskconstraintshasbeenintroducedandsystem-aticallystudiedinChapter15ofCoverandl'homas[11.Themodelcanbediscribedasfol-.lows:Astockmarketisrepresentedasavectorofstocksx=(X,,X,,..',X.)',X,>o,i=1,2,.-',m,wheremisthenumberofstocksandthepricerelativeXirepresentstheratiooftheclos-ingpriceofthecurrentbusinessdaytotheprevi-ousday.LetF(x),x=(x,,x2,..',x-)'eR"bethejointdistributionofvectorX.Aportfoliob=(b,,bs,..',b,)',b,>o,i=l,2,..',m,Zb,=1istheall…     

中介机构声誉与IPO公司“业绩变脸”

着眼于中介机构声誉这一视角,运用2010-2012年在沪深A股上市的非金融企业样本,分析IPO公司上市后业绩下滑现象。研究结果表明,在我国证券市场,IPO公司上市当年存在明显的"业绩变脸"现象;整体而言,承销商声誉机制效应并不显著。承销收入占主营业务收入比重较高的承销商,其承销的公司"业绩变脸"的可能性更大;选择大型会计师事务所与支付较高会计师事务所报酬的IPO公司,"业绩变脸"的可能性更大。     

关于我国铁路改革的基本构想

从宏观角度分析了我国铁路现行体制上存在的弊端。根据我国建立社会主义市场经济体制的总要求，指出了我国铁路改革的总体目标，阐明了我 国铁路改革在政企分开，企业重构，市场经营以及投资体制，财务体制等方面的改革内容和着力点以及我国铁路改革的基本思路和框架。     

Property protection,financial constraints and economic growth

The relationship between financial system, law framework or economic growth has attracted considerable attention for years. However, there are some questions still remaining unanswered: between tangible assets protection and intellectual property protection, which is more important? Between external financing and property rights protection, which does play a greater role for the economic development? According to the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE) model with non-free market factors, we study the effectiveness of property protection and external financing, and try to answer these questions. The model fits the data well, and we find:(1) protection of intellectual property plays a more important role than that of tangible asset, in the promotion of economy;(2) relaxation of financial constraints on corporate is more effective in the short run, while the protection of intellectual property is more effectual in the long term.