Hybrid cars and HOV lanes

The 2005 California Clean Air Access Sticker program offered stickers to owners of hybrid cars allowing unrestricted access to High Occupancy Vehicle lanes. The program was conceived as a zero-cost mechanism to encourage purchase of hybrid cars and to reduce air pollution. Information from sales of used hybrids allows us to estimate sticker market value. We then derive the value of excess HOV space the hybrids occupied, which is considerably greater than the air pollution benefits achieved. A more effective policy would sell space to drivers of any vehicle and use the revenue to stimulate hybrid demand, preferably via direct subsidy.     

Vehicle insurance and the risk of road traffic accidents

Given the upward trend in incidences of road traffic accidents (RTAs) over recent years, in order to mitigate the financial losses arising from such accidents, governments around the world nowadays generally encourage, or even require, drivers to purchase appropriate vehicle insurance. The primary aim of this study is to examine whether RTAs are directly related to the purchase of vehicle insurance, with our examination of data on vehicle damage insurance policyholders revealing that those drivers who purchase more insurance coverage have a higher probability of being involved in accidents, as a result of which, they will tend to submit more claims. This indicates that insurance coverage might contain information which can be used to assess the probability risk levels of RTAs. We also find that drivers with less safety awareness will tend to purchase more coverage, and that those who purchase more coverage will, in turn, tend to have more accidents and submit more claims. Our findings, which provide a number of road traffic policy implications, would appear to justify the use of the bonus–malus system.     

An economic and operational evaluation of urban car-sharing

Utilising cost benefit analysis techniques, in exactly the same way as the UK Government evaluates new roads and public transport schemes (i.e. COBA), car-sharing can be shown to produce very high net benefits to society. This paper shows that if a scheme were to be set up in the West Midlands area, UK, then even with the most conservative estimates of car-share participation, net benefits would be comparable to those produced by major road schemes. Indeed, slightly less conservative estimates of participation give net benefits in excess of road schemes.     

An Evaluation of the Accessibility Benefits of Commuter Rail in Eastern Massachusetts using Spatial Hedonic Price Functions

We estimate spatial hedonic price functions to examine local and regional accessibility benefits of commuter rail service in Eastern Massachusetts, while controlling for proximity-related negative externalities and other confounding influences. The data include 1,860 single-family residential properties from four municipalities with commuter rail service, and three municipalities without commuter rail service. We find some evidence of the capitalization of accessibility to commuter rail stations. Two model specifications suggest that properties located in municipalities with commuter rail stations exhibit values that are between 9.6% and 10.1% higher than properties in municipalities without a commuter rail station. With a third model we detect weak evidence of the capitalization of auto access time or walking time to the stations, suggesting that properties located within a one-half mile buffer of a station have values that are 10.1% higher than properties located outside of this buffer area and that an additional minute of drive time from the station is related to a decrease of 1.6% in property values. Our results also indicate that proximity to commuter rail right-of-way has a significant negative effect on property values, which suggests that for every 1,000 ft. in distance from the commuter rail right-of-way, property values are between $732 and $2,897 higher, all else held equal. At the mean sample values, this result translates into an elasticity of between 0.03 and 0.13, depending on the functional form of the hedonic price equation.     

A model for estimating the optimal cycle length of demand responsive feeder transit services

The general lack of first/last mile connectivity is one of the main challenges faced by today’s public transit. One of the possible actions towards a solution to this problem is the planning, design and implementation of efficient feeder transit services. This paper develops an analytical model which allows for an easy computation of near optimal terminal-to-terminal cycle length of a demand responsive feeder service to maximize service quality provided to customers, defined as the inverse of a weighted sum of waiting and riding times. The model estimates the recommended cycle length by only plugging in geometrical parameters and demand data, without relying on extensive simulation analyses or rule of thumbs. Simulation experiments and comparisons with real services validate our model, which would allow planners, decision makers and practitioners to quickly identify the best feeder transit operating design of any given residential area.     

An evaluation of national road user charging in England

This paper explores the effects of road user charging throughout England. It develops a model to test charging scenarios including revenue raising and revenue neutral charging options, and economically efficient pricing. For each scenario we estimate effects on traffic volumes, user charges and fares, subsidies, environmental costs, benefits to consumers, government revenue, and overall net benefits. We show that appropriate charging structures coupled with compensating reductions in existing motoring taxes can make a real difference to traffic growth, congestion and environmental damage, and can relieve pressure to build new roads.     

Electric vehicles: How much range is required for a day’s driving?

One full year of high-resolution driving data from 484 instrumented gasoline vehicles in the US is used to analyze daily driving patterns, and from those infer the range requirements of electric vehicles (EVs). We conservatively assume that EV drivers would not change their current gasoline-fueled driving patterns and that they would charge only once daily, typically at home overnight. Next, the market is segmented into those drivers for whom a limited-range vehicle would meet every day’s range need, and those who could meet their daily range need only if they make adaptations on some days. Adaptations, for example, could mean they have to either recharge during the day, borrow a liquid-fueled vehicle, or save some errands for the subsequent day. From this analysis, with the stated assumptions, we infer the potential market share for limited-range vehicles. For example, we find that 9% of the vehicles in the sample never exceeded 100 miles in one day, and 21% never exceeded 150 miles in one day. These drivers presumably could substitute a limited-range vehicle, like electric vehicles now on the market, for their current gasoline vehicle without any adaptation in their driving at all. For drivers who are willing to make adaptations on 2 days a year, the same 100 mile range EV would meet the needs of 17% of drivers, and if they are willing to adapt every other month (six times a year), it would work for 32% of drivers. Thus, it appears that even modest electric vehicles with today’s limited battery range, if marketed correctly to segments with appropriate driving behavior, comprise a large enough market for substantial vehicle sales. An additional analysis examines driving versus parking by time of day. On the average weekday at 5 pm, only 15% of the vehicles in the sample are on the road; at no time during the year are fewer than 75% of vehicles parked. Also, because the return trip home is widely spread in time, even if all cars plug in and begin charging immediately when they arrive home and park, the increased demand on the electric system is less problematic than prior analyses have suggested.     

Impact assessment of the Internet of Things on feeder transit performance

ABSTRACT

Efficient planning for demand responsive transit (DRT) can contribute to fulfilling the first/last mile transport needs for users of a major transit line. With the advancement in communication technologies, the internet is expected to assist this growing need of providing first/last mile connectivity. This is proposed to be achieved through a network created by Internet of Things (IoT). This paper evaluates the effect of implementation of IoT on service quality (or disutility) of DRT for two scenarios – with enabled-IoT (e-IoT) and with disabled-IoT (d-IoT). Data from five different DRT-like systems known as Call-n-Ride (CnR) routes operating in Denver, Colorado, are used for evaluation purposes. These CnR routes are Meridian, Interlocken, South Inverness, Broomfield and Louisville. Results show that, in general, all CnR routes would experience more than a 58 percent decrease in disutility if their operations were based on ‘with e-IoT’ operations. Interlocken would record the largest percentage decrease (74 percent) in disutility if its route service switched from the ‘with d-IoT’ to the ‘with e-IoT’ scenario.     

A practical method to estimate the benefits of improved road network reliability: an application to departing air passengers

This paper develops and applies a practical method to estimate the benefits of improved reliability of road networks. We present a general methodology to estimate the scheduling costs due to travel time variability for car travel. In contrast to existing practical methods, we explicitly consider the effect of travel time variability on departure time choices. We focus on situations when only mean delays are known, which is typically the case when standard transport models are used. We first show how travel time variability can be predicted from mean delays. We then estimate the scheduling costs of travellers, taking into account their optimal departure time choice given the estimated travel time variability. We illustrate the methodology for air passengers traveling by car to Amsterdam Schiphol Airport. We find that on average planned improvements in network reliability only lead to a small reduction in access costs per trip in absolute terms, mainly because most air passengers drive to the airport outside peak hours, when travel time variability tends to be low. However, in relative terms the reduction in access costs due to the improvements in network reliability is substantial. In our case we find that for every 1 Euro reduction in travel time costs, there is an additional cost reduction of 0.7 Euro due to lower travel time variability, and hence lower scheduling costs. Ignoring the benefits from improved reliability may therefore lead to a severe underestimation of the total benefits of infrastructure improvements.     

Short trips: An opportunity for reducing mobile-source emissions?

This paper examines how conversion of automobile trips of less than 3 miles to other transportation modes reduces emissions. Short trips contribute disproportionately to emissions because of cold starts. An analysis is conducted of short-trip behavior across the US using the 1995 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey. The data is used to develop likely scenarios of mode conversions for short trips, which are then applied to estimate emission savings using MOBILE6 cold start and running emission factors for volatile organic compounds, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide. The results suggest that reducing short auto trips would modestly reduce mobile source air pollution, but emission reductions are high compared to most federally-funded surface transportation interventions aimed at improving air quality. Enhanced the community pedestrian environment to encourage short trip mode conversion also produces co-benefits such as increased physical activity and subsequent reductions in chronic diseases.     

Fuel saving and ridesharing in the US: Motivations,limitations, and opportunities

Ridesharing can reduce the fuel consumed in noncommercial passenger highway vehicles by grouping individuals into fewer vehicles and reducing the number of miles that vehicles must travel. We estimate the potential fuel savings that could result from an increase in ridesharing in the US. If no additional travel is required to pick up passengers, adding one additional passenger for every 100 vehicles would reduce annual fuel consumption by 0.80–0.82 billion gallons of gasoline per year; if one passenger were added in every 10 vehicles, the potential savings would be 7.54–7.74 billion gallons per year. However, ridesharing may require extra travel to pick up additional passengers, which can reduce and possibly eliminate potential fuel savings. The tradeoff between saving fuel and spending time to pick up additional passengers is investigated, finding that, on average, ridesharing may not be attractive to travelers, but can be made more attractive by increasing per-vehicle-trip costs such as parking and tolls.     

Voluntary internalization of speeding externalities with vehicle insurance

High speed is an important determinant of accidents for speeders as well as for other motorists. This paper develops a framework for analyzing instruments that encourage drivers to internalize the full consequences of their behavior with respect to choice of speed using Pay-As-You-Speed (PAYS) insurance, possibly as an extension of Pay-As-You-Drive (PAYD) insurance. We demonstrate how the combination of a Pigovian taxation scheme and PAYS can be designed in a setting involving two principals (the state and an insurance company) that affect the incentives of commuters to choose between driving and other modes of transport and for those that use the car mode to drive carefully. While the government is assumed to maximize overall social efficiency and therefore wants to implement marginal cost pricing, insurance companies do actuarial pricing, i.e. average cost pricing within risk classes that are homogeneous to the degree that the insurers have information about actual behavior. PAYS insurance improves the insurance industry’s possibility to differentiate premiums according to behavior and therefore to target risk classes in a better way than today. Moreover, since our framework is designed to accomplish differentiation by self-selection, compulsory regulation is not necessary, although there may be reason for the government to facilitate the implementation of the new technology.     

Auction-based highway reservation system an agent-based simulation study

Based on previous studies of a highway reservation system, this paper proposed an auction-based implementation, in which the users can bid for the right to use a route during a certain period of time. This paper models the auction system with MATSim using an agent-based simulation technique. The agents adopt their own bidding logic in the auction, and the price converges after around 130 iterations, when the number of users using the reserved highway and the total collected revenue become stable. When the overall demand changes, the collected revenue ranges from 5 to 11 dollars per user, and from 0.7 to 1.5 dollars per mile. The auction system can transfer more consumer surplus to the toll road operators, since it is a personalized tolling mechanism. The users are using the reservation system as insurance of a guaranteed congestion-free travel. The auction-based highway reservation shows great potential as a new traffic management system.     

The costs and benefits of a nitrogen emission control area in the Baltic and North Seas

The main purpose of this paper is to analyse the socio-economic justification of implementing a Nitrogen Emission Control Area (NECA), starting 2021, for ships in the Baltic Sea and/or the North Sea and English Channel. We analyse the potential for emission reduction, emission control costs, and monetised benefits following the introduction of a NECA. Costs and benefits are compared for 2030. We compile new data on emission control costs for shipping, use the GAINS model for calculations of emission dispersion, and the Alpha-RiskPoll model for estimating monetary values of health impacts. The model results show that costs to conform to the NO_X regulations of a NECA in the Baltic Sea, North Sea or both sea regions would be 111 (100–123), 181 (157–209), and 230 (195–273) million € per year, respectively. Corresponding benefits from reduced emissions are estimated to be 139 (56–294), 869 (335–1882), and 1007 (392–2177) million € per year, respectively. Calculated benefits surpass costs for most scenarios, but less convincingly for a Baltic Sea NECA. Conforming to the NECA regulations by using Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) propulsion engines is estimated to give the highest net benefits but also the largest variation (costs: 153 (88–238), benefits: 1556 (49–3795) million €/year). The variations are mainly due to uncertainties in the valuation of avoided fatalities and climate impacts. It is concluded that the NECAs for the Baltic and North Seas can be justified using CBA under all but extreme assumptions.     

Application of path analysis methodology to transit system maintenance performance

This paper develops a conceptual framework for bus maintenance based on path analysis and applies it to forty-eight bus transit systems. The application determines the total, direct, and indirect effects of the variables identified as having significant causal links with maintenance cost per mile. These variables are identified using the stepwise regression method. The findings are that the wage rate and fleet size increase maintenance cost directly and indirectly. In terms of the standardized regression coefficients, fleet size has been found to be the most important factor affecting maintenance cost per mile, followed by the proportion of articulated buses, the wage rate and local subsidy in that order. The proportion of articulated buses has been found to reduce maintenance cost per mile directly and to increase it indirectly. The indirect path coefficient of the proportion of articulated buses is 0.1794 whereas the direct path coefficient is –0.351. Similarly local subsidy as a proportion of revenue increases maintenance cost per mile directly and reduces it indirectly. The corresponding path coefficients for the direct and indirect effects of local subsidy are 0.2553 and –0.1073. In addition population density and the peak-base ratio are positively and significantly associated with miles between roadcalls. The implications of these findings are briefly examined in this paper. Because the path analysis methodology allows the direct and indirect effects of a causal variable to be determined, it is recommended for policy analysis.     

Equity effects of congestion pricing: Quantitative methodology and a case study for Stockholm

It is widely recognised that congestion pricing could be an effective measure to solve environmental and congestion problems in urban areas—a reform that normally also would generate a net welfare surplus. Despite this the implementation of congestion pricing has been very slow. One reason for a low public and political acceptance could be that equity impacts have not been given enough concern. In studies of distributional impacts of congestion pricing it has often been claimed that the reform is regressive rather than progressive even if there are studies claiming the opposite. We develop a method for detailed, quantitative assessment of equity effects of road pricing and apply it to a real-world example, namely a proposed congestion-charging scheme for Stockholm. The method simultaneously takes into account differences in travel behaviour, in preferences (such as values of time) and in supply of travel possibilities (car ownership, public transport level-of-service etc.). We conclude that the two most important factors for the net impact of congestion pricing are the initial travel patterns and how revenues are used. Differences in these respects dwarf differences in other factors such as values of time. This is accentuated by the fact that the total collected charges are more than three times as large as the net benefits. With respect to different groups, we find that men, high-income groups and residents in the central parts of the city will be affected the most. If revenues are used for improving public transport, this will benefit women and low-income groups the most. If revenues are used for tax cuts, the net benefits will be about equal for men and women on the average, while it naturally will benefit high-income groups. Given that it is likely that the revenues will be used to some extent to improve the public transport system, we conclude that the proposed congestion-charging scheme for Stockholm is progressive rather than regressive.     

A segregated urban busway system

A transport system has been proposed using buses operating over ordinary roads and over special reserved tracks (busways) on which they might be automatically guided. Using cost and performance data resulting from an earlier technical study (not reported here), a hypothetical network of routes and services in the West Midlands conurbation is studied. Estimates of patronage diverted from public and private transport enable the profitability of the system and its costs and benefits to be assessed. It is concluded that the system could be attractive both in commercial and in cost/benefit terms, providing acceptable means could be found for handling the buses around and through the inner central areas of cities. The net environmental changes, which would result from additional fixed plant permitting more efficient use of mobile plant, have not been quantified.     

An assessment of the benefits of the walking school bus in Christchurch,New Zealand

A Walking School Bus involves parents or other adults escorting a group of children on a set route to school. The first one was established in 1996 in Canada. They can now be found in a variety of countries, including New Zealand. Many of the benefits associated with them are based on the general benefits of affecting a modal shift away from cars in favour of walking. However, there is still relatively little known about the less quantifiable benefits of them, and there has been some suggestion that they can adversely affect children’s independent mobility. This research examined the perceived benefits of Walking School Buses by interviewing people involved in the day to running of the scheme in Christchurch, New Zealand. The results suggest that walking school buses have many social benefits and that if anything; they encourage children’s independent mobility.     

The Gothenburg congestion charges: cost–benefit analysis and distribution effects

This paper performs an ex-post cost–benefit and distribution analysis of the Gothenburg congestion charges introduced in 2013, based on observed effects and an ex-post evaluated transport model. Although Gothenburg is a small city with congestion limited to the highway junctions, the congestion charge scheme is socially beneficial, generating a net surplus of €20 million per year. From a financial perspective, the investment cost was repaid in slightly more than a year and, from a social surplus perspective, is repaid in < 4 years. Still, the sums that are redistributed in Gothenburg are substantially larger than the net benefit. In the distribution analysis we develop an alternative welfare rule, where the utility is translated to money by dividing the utility by the average marginal utility of money, thereby avoiding putting a higher weight on high-income people. The alternative welfare rule shows larger re-distribution effects, because paying charges is more painful for low-income classes due to the higher marginal utility of money. Low-income citizens pay a larger share of their income because all income classes are highly car dependent in Gothenburg and workers in the highest income class have considerably higher access to company cars for private trips. No correlation was found between voting pattern and gains, losses or net gain.

     

Deregulating the bus industry in Britain: a rejoinder

In our critique for the Buses White Paper, we argued that ‘competition for licences’ could achieve most of the benefits of competition without the major disadvantages of ‘competition on the road’. In response to the comments of Beesley and Glaister, we explain how comprehensive franchising of good and bad routes alike would encourage effective competition, whilst providing conditions for the transparent continuation of cross‐subsidy where that was the choice of the local authority in question. We correct their misrepresentation of our arguments on the desirability of cross‐subsidy and on the case for minibuses, and explain why we believe that such cost savings as are achieved will be mainly at the expense of staff or customer service. Finally, we restate the case for believing that a unified planned timetable will provide a better service for a given level of resources than will uncoordinated competitive services.