基于因子分析的船员职业心理适宜性评价

对船员深度知觉、反应速度、注意力集中和分配、智力、应对能力、社会支持、复原力等7项心理指标进行测量,通过因子分析对各因子进行考察、分类命名并解释,评价其对船员职业适宜情况的影响,为船员的心理胜任能力评价及航海类学生教学提供理论和指导依据。     

基于因子分析的省属内河航道维护水平评价

在对我国内河航道维护现状分析的基础上,建立省属内河航道维护水平评价指标体系,通过因子分析法对指标进行定量综合分析,得出省属内河航道维护水平各因子得分和综合排名。因子分析法可以对相关性较强且数量较多的指标进行降维,使评价结果更为合理、有效;同时,利用各因子得分值对不同省市航道进行比较分析,可以对该地区的航道维护水平做出符合实际的总体评价。评价结果反映了省属航道维护的真实水平,为各省属内河航道管理决策提供客观依据。     

“双循环”新格局下港口新城规划编制——以武汉经开区为例

港口新城是港口城市拓展发展空间、刺激经济增长、扩大对外开发的重要抓手,在“双循环”新发展格局下承担着更重大的发展使命,亟需从规划设计角度开展系统性研究。以武汉经开区港口新城为研究对象,基于调研分析得出港口新城具备优质岸线和充足用地资源,主要存在港口现代化水平低、临港产业发展不足、多式联运未成体系、城市配套不完善等发展问题。以“港产城融合发展”理念为引领,高标准谋划港口新城发展目标、空间规划格局、总体发展路径,针对性提出升级港口基础设施、构建临港产业集群、完善多式联运体系、优化城市配套服务等规划发展策略,以引领推动港口新城全面融入“双循环”新发展格局,为我国内陆港口城市规划建设港口新城提供启示和借鉴。     

基于证据理论的船舶航道空间安全评价

为保障船舶在行驶过程中的安全性,提出基于证据理论的船舶航道空间安全评价方法.从航道尺度、自然因素等构建船舶航道空间安全评价指标体系,采用证据理论的合成标准融合各评价指标的主、客观权重,获取最终的评价指标权重结果,构建评价集合划分安全评价等级,确定不同评价指标关于评价集合的确信度,归一化处理不同确信度值获取各评价指标的基...     

基于因子分析模型的船舶企业节能减排评价及应用

以船舶类企业节能减排的评价及评价模型的应用为研究对象,基于因子分析法建立评价指标体系。通过数理计算,得出节能减排评价结果。针对结果进行分析,提出相关建议。     

基于因子分析的极地邮轮舱室空气污染物研究

船舶舱室空气污染物是影响舱室舒适性的重要因素。以极地邮轮舱室空气污染物为研究对象,在分析其来源及相互影响因素的基础上,提出采用因子分子法对舱室污染物进行降维的处理方法。在相关样本数据的基础上,分别利用SPSS软件和MATLAB编程进行污染物的因子分析。目前已有的样本数据显示公因子为2个:第一公因子在CO、细菌总数、可吸入颗粒物、甲醛和SO₂上有较大的载荷;第二个公因子在甲醛、NO₂和SO₂上有较大的载荷。研究结果表明:SPSS软件和MATLAB在降维分析中的研究结论一致。该研究结果可为对环境舒适度要求较高的船舶舱室空气污染物主动控制提供较好的理论依据和参考。     

企业经济效益的综合考核与评价

改革开放以来,国内企业的经济效益显著提高,推动着我国经济的迅速发展,所以对各个企业的经济效益进行综合评价十分必要。     

基于因子分析对长三角海港引航员职业压力的研究

船舶引航是一类特殊的职业.为寻求减轻引航员职业压力的措施,采用因子分析探索长三角海港引航员职业压力来源,采用问卷调查的方式,使用"状态—特质焦虑量表"进行压力测评,结果显示我国长三角海港引航员状态——特质焦虑得分均值＞40分,说明引航员存在职业压力.结合其一般情况和引航员知、信、行进行因子降维,针对降维所得的4个因子进...     

基于因子分析的集装箱干线港陆域纵深统计模型

针对国内外主要集装箱港口,总结了其陆域功能及其重要的平面尺度--陆域纵深.运用因子分析方法,选取影响陆域纵深的主要指标,构造出陆域纵深影响指标评价模型,计算出各集装箱码头的因子得分,并以此为基础进行聚类分析,将所选的集装箱码头分为3种情况,分别对其陆域纵深进行分析研究,得出了各种情况下陆域纵深的取值范围.     

珠江新城核心区交通问题研究

珠江新城核心区是广州市21世纪中央商务区的核心区域,如何整合和优化该区域内的交通资源,以避免将来在该区域出现交通拥堵的现象,是决定该区域建设成败的关键问题。本文介绍并分析了珠江新城核心区交通问题的重点、难点并提出了相应的解决办法。     

Forecasting container throughput based on wavelet transforms within a decomposition-ensemble methodology: a case study of China

To improve predictive accuracy, new hybrid models are proposed for container throughput forecasting based on wavelet transforms and data characteristic analysis (DCA) within a decomposition-ensemble methodology. Because of the complexity and nonlinearity of the time series of container throughputs at ports, the methodology decomposes the original time series into several components, which are rather simpler sub-sequences. Consequently, difficult forecasting tasks are simplified into a number of relatively easier subtasks. In this way, the proposed hybrid models can improve the accuracy of forecasting significantly. In the methodology, four main steps are involved: data decomposition, component reconstruction based on the DCA, individual prediction for each reconstructed component, and ensemble prediction as the final output. An empirical analysis was conducted for illustration and verification purposes by using time series of container throughputs at three main ports in Bohai Rim, China. The results suggest that the proposed hybrid models are able to forecast better than do other benchmark models. Forecasting may facilitate effective real-time decision making for strategic management and policy drafting. Predictions of container throughput can help port managers make tactical and operational decisions, such as operations planning in ports, the scheduling of port equipment, and route optimization.     

状态空间的船体平直分段装配的偏差诊断和分析(英文)

Dimensional control is one of the most important challenges in the shipbuilding industry.In order to predict assembly dimensional variation in hull flat block construction,a variation stream model based on state space was presented in this paper which can be further applied to accuracy control in shipbuilding.Part accumulative error,locating error,and welding deformation were taken into consideration in this model,and variation propagation mechanisms and the accumulative rule in the assembly process were analyzed.Then,a model was developed to describe the variation propagation throughout the assembly process.Finally,an example of flat block construction from an actual shipyard was given.The result shows that this method is effective and useful.     

基于大数据分析的船运物流集装箱班轮舱位分配方法

传统的船运物流集装箱班轮舱位分配方法存在着经济效益差的缺陷,为此提出基于大数据分析的船运物流集装箱班轮舱位分配方法研究。以经济效益最大化为目标对船运物流集装箱班轮舱位分配的要素进行分析与确定,以确定的舱位分配要素为依据对船运物流集装箱班轮舱位分配模型进行构建,以构建的模型为依据,对其进行求解得到最佳的舱位分配方案,实现了船运物流集装箱班轮舱位的分配。采用实验对船运物流集装箱班轮舱位分配方法的经济效益进行验证,得到提出的船运物流集装箱班轮舱位分配方法的船运收入比传统方法高出22.7千元,说明提出的船运物流集装箱班轮舱位分配方法可以获得更好的经济效益。     

从个案中谈海上事故安全调查的定位和取向

《海上事故安全调查国际标准和推荐方法规则》已于2010年1月1日生效,该规则与目前我国的水上交通事故调查在理念和操作上有着诸多不同,其中最为根本的区别在于调查的性质和目的不同。文中通过分析一份英国海上事故调查委员会(Marine Accident Investigation Branch)公布的事故调查报告,来对比分析事故安全调查的定位和取向。     

Locating dry ports on a network: a case study on Tianjin Port

A mathematical model for optimizing the location of dry ports is developed. The objective is to minimize the sum of the transportation costs and the fixed facility opening/closing costs. Unlike previous research on this subject, the possibility of closing existing dry ports is investigated. The dry port location problem is formulated as an integer programming and it is shown that the CFLP is a special case of our problem. The proposed model is then applied to the port of Tianjin in China and the sensitivity analysis is performed to demonstrate the robustness of the model. Our model suggests that while Tianjin Port should open some new dry ports, it might be better off closing those existing dry ports without enough throughputs. Although all parameters estimated should be uncertain in reality, sensitivity analysis shows that the results returned by the model are quite stable.     

基于改进McEvily裂纹扩展模型的新型钛合金疲劳可靠性分析

针对传统的Paris裂纹扩展模型在可靠性研究中不能考虑小裂纹扩展过程的问题,本文基于改进McEvily裂纹扩展模型,建立疲劳可靠性的极限状态计算方程,采用一次二阶矩验算点法对可靠度指标及其参数敏感性进行计算分析。通过与基于Paris裂纹扩展模型的可靠性结果对比表明:改进McEvily裂纹扩展模型下的可靠度指标为4.17,在Paris裂纹扩展模型下的可靠度指标为4.08,Paris模型只考虑了裂纹稳定扩展的过程,其可靠性计算结果更为保守;通过参数灵敏度分析得知,不确定变量中的材料参数m、初始裂纹尺寸a0、临界裂纹尺寸ac对可靠度指标有较大程度的影响。小裂纹扩展阶段的主要影响参数即裂纹闭合水平k,其变异系数对失效概率的影响较小但系数达到0.16时失效速率有进一步增长趋势。     

基于伯特兰德模型的深圳港与香港港港口定价博弈

针对深圳港和香港港实际情况,基于伯特兰德模型设置模型及参数,求出非串通模式下的纳什均衡,通过分析模型结果,为深圳和香港两港的整体得益最大化对企业和政府两方面提出建议。     

Service contracts: a case study of unfulfilled promises

The US Shipping Act of 1984 permits ocean liner vessel operators and shippers to make use of service contracts to further their mutual interests. However, starting from the very day this novel provision was incorporated into the Act, it has remained as a bone of contention between shippers and carriers serving US trade routes. This article highlights the major issues that have sprouted subsequent to the introduction of service contracts in ocean liner shipping. The author concludes with some logical suggestions to fine-tune the Act, without interfering with its legislative framework.