Modeling traveler mode choice behavior of a new high-speed rail corridor in China

This study examines mode choice behavior for intercity business and personal/recreational trips. It uses multinomial logit and nested logit methods to analyze revealed preference data provided by travelers along the Yong-Tai-Wen multimodal corridor in Zhejiang, China. Income levels are found to be positively correlated with mode share increases for high-speed rail (HSR), expressway-based bus, and auto modes, while travel time and trip costs are negatively correlated with modal shift. Longer distance trips trigger modal shifts to HSR services but prevent modal shift to expressway-based auto use due to escalation of fuel cost and toll charges. Travelers are less elastic in their travel time and cost for trips by nonexpressway-based auto use modes. The magnitude of elasticity for travel time is higher than trip costs for business trips and lower for personal/recreational trips. The study provides some policy suggestions for transportation planners and decision-makers.     

Optimizing train stopping patterns and schedules for high-speed passenger rail corridors

High-speed railway (HSR) systems have been developing rapidly in China and various other countries throughout the past decade; as a result, the question of how to efficiently operate such large-scale systems is posing a new challenge to the railway industry. A high-quality train timetable should take full advantage of the system’s capacity to meet transportation demands. This paper presents a mathematical model for optimizing a train timetable for an HSR system. We propose an innovative methodology using a column-generation-based heuristic algorithm to simultaneously account for both passenger service demands and train scheduling. First, we transform a mathematical model into a simple linear programming problem using a Lagrangian relaxation method. Second, we search for the optimal solution by updating the restricted master problem (RMP) and the sub-problems in an iterative process using the column-generation-based algorithm. Finally, we consider the Beijing–Shanghai HSR line as a real-world application of the methodology; the results show that the optimization model and algorithm can improve the defined profit function by approximately 30% and increase the line capacity by approximately 27%. This methodology has the potential to improve the service level and capacity of HSR lines with no additional high-cost capital investment (e.g., the addition of new tracks, bridges and tunnels on the mainline and/or at stations).     

Grand challenges for high-speed rail environmental assessment in the United States

The comprehensiveness of environmental assessments of future long-distance travel that include high-speed rail (HSR) are constrained by several methodological, institutional, and knowledge gaps that must and can be addressed. These gaps preclude a robust understanding of the changes in environmental, human health, resource, and climate change impacts that result from the implementation of HSR in the United States. The gaps are also inimical to an understanding of how HSR can be positioned for 21st century sustainability goals. Through a synthesis of environmental studies, the gaps are grouped into five overarching grand challenges. They include a spatial incompatibility between HSR and other long-distance modes that is often ignored, an environmental review process that obviates modal alternatives, siloed interest in particular environmental impacts, a dearth of data on future vehicle and energy sources, and a poor understanding of secondary impacts, particularly in land use. Recommendations are developed for institutional investment in multimodal research, knowledge and method building around several topics. Ultimately, the environmental assessment of HSR should be integrated in assessments that seek to understand the complementary and competitive configurations of transportation services, as well as future accessibility.     

The role of access and egress in passenger overall satisfaction with high speed rail

Passenger satisfaction is critical to ridership growth of high speed rail (HSR). Each HSR trip includes at least four segments: access to HSR stations, waiting, line-haul, and egress from HSR stations. Satisfaction with any segment influences the HSR passenger experience. Previous studies often focus on passenger satisfaction with the line-haul segment, but overlook the effects of all four segments on overall HSR satisfaction, especially access and egress. Using a path analysis on the data collected from the Shanghai-Nanjing HSR corridor in 2016, this study explores the influence of access and egress segments on overall HSR satisfaction and the correlates of satisfaction with HSR access and egress segments. We find that HSR line-haul satisfaction dominates overall HSR satisfaction; HSR access and egress satisfaction together have an equivalent effect. Travel time and route familiarity are important to both access and egress satisfaction. Mode choice affects satisfaction with HSR egress, with egress by car carrying the largest utility of egress satisfaction, followed by rail transit, taxi, and then bus. Thus, to improve HSR experience, traveler information service and the integration of HSR with urban transportation system are critical.

     

Airlines’ reaction to high-speed rail entries: Empirical study of the Northeast Asian market

We investigate the impact of the commencement of high-speed rail (HSR) services on airlines’ domestic available seats on affected routes in China, Japan, and South Korea. The study is based on a dataset covering the 1994–2012 period. We use the propensity score matching method to pair HSR affected routes with routes without HSR services. The difference-in-difference approach is used to estimate the impact of HSR entry. We find that HSR entries may, on average, lead to a more significant drop in airlines’ seat capacity in China than in Japan and Korea given similar HSR service speed. In China, HSR services with a maximum speed about 200 km/h can produce strong negative impacts on medium-haul air routes but induce more air seat capacity on long-haul routes. HSR services with a maximum speed of 300 km/h have little extra impact on medium-haul routes but a strong negative impact on long-haul routes. Finally, although HSR has a strong negative impact in Japan’s short-haul and medium-haul air markets, little impact is observed in its long-haul markets.     

Forecasting high-speed rail ridership using a simultaneous modeling approach

Abstract

The newly launched, June 2009, US High-Speed Intercity Passenger Rail Program has rekindled a renewed interest in forecasting high-speed rail (HSR) ridership. The first step to the concerted effort by the federal, state, rail, and other related agencies to develop a nationwide HSR network is the development of credible approaches to forecast the ridership. This article presents a nested logit/simultaneous choice model to improve the demand forecast in the context of intercity travel. In addition to incorporating the interrelationship between trip generation and mode choice decisions, the simultaneous model also provides a platform for the same utility function flowing between both the decision-making processes. Using American Travel Survey data, supplemented by various mode parameters, the proposed model improves the forecast accuracy and confirms the significant impact of travel costs on both mode choice and trip generation. Furthermore, the cross elasticity of mode choice and trip generation related to travel costs and other modal characteristics may shed some light on transportation policies in the area of intercity travel, especially in anticipation of HSR development.     

Is the intention to use public transport for different travel purposes determined by different factors?

The objective of this study was to examine the psychological predictors of the intention to use public transport for three travel purposes: work or study, shopping, and leisure. An expanded version of the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) which contains overall image and past behaviour is used. Data were gathered through the survey of 392 residents living in the central parts of Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia. These data were analysed using the partial least squares technique. The results indicate that attitude and perceived behavioural control are significant predictors of the intention to use public transportation for various purposes. Further, they explain between 34.6% and 49.8% of the intention variance. By adding the overall image and past behaviour to the original predictors in the TPB, the explained variance, with regard to work or study, shopping, and leisure purposes, increased by 5.6%, 5.1%, and 6.8%, respectively.     

Air transport and high-speed rail competition: Environmental implications and mitigation strategies

We build a duopoly model to shed light on the environmental impact of HSR-air transport competition, capturing the effects of induced demand, schedule frequency and HSR speed. The net environmental effect can be negative since there is a the trade-off between the substitution effect – how many passengers using the HSR are shifted from air transport – and the traffic generation effect – how much new demand is generated by the HSR. We conduct a simulation study based on the London-Paris market where HSR has served 70% of the market. The introduction of HSR is detrimental to LAP, while it is beneficial to GHG emissions. HSR entry increases neither LAP nor GHG emissions when the ratio between HSR and air transport emissions is relatively low. Moreover, competition is more likely to be detrimental to the environment when the weight of the social welfare in HSR objective function is high. Since the magnitude of the environmental friendliness of HSR compared to air transport hinges on the mix of energy sources used to generate the electricity (which is heavily constrained by the country in which HSR operates), regulators should assess the implications of HSR entry taking into account the energy policy and mitigation strategies available to transport modes.     

An optimization model of energy and transportation systems: Assessing the high-speed rail impacts in the United States

This paper presents a long-term investment planning model that co-optimizes infrastructure investments and operations across transportation and electric infrastructure systems for meeting the energy and transportation needs in the United States. The developed passenger transportation model is integrated within the modeling framework of a National Long-term Energy and Transportation Planning (NETPLAN) software, and the model is applied to investigate the impact of high-speed rail (HSR) investments on interstate passenger transportation portfolio, fuel and electricity consumption, and 40-year cost and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. The results show that there are feasible scenarios under which significant HSR penetration can be achieved, leading to reasonable decrease in national long-term CO₂ emissions and costs. At higher HSR penetration of approximately 30% relative to no HSR in the portfolio promises a 40-year cost savings of up to $0.63 T, gasoline and jet fuel consumption reduction of up to 34% for interstate passenger trips, CO₂ emissions reduction by about 0.8 billion short tons, and increased resilience against petroleum price shocks. Additionally, sensitivity studies with respect to light-duty vehicle mode share reveal that in order to realize such long-term cost and emission benefits, a change in the passenger mode choice is essential to ensure higher ridership for HSR.     

Comparative analysis of household car,motorcycle and bicycle ownership between Osaka metropolitan area,Japan and Kuala Lumpur,Malaysia

The interactions among different types of vehicle ownership including car, motorcycle and bicycle are examined by developing simultaneous vehicle ownership models in this study. Large scale person trip survey data for Osaka metropolitan area, Japan and Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia are used for empirical analysis. The results suggest that population density at residential area significantly and negatively affects car ownership for both areas, and that the effects are larger for Osaka metropolitan area than for Kuala Lumpur. Also, bicycle ownership becomes higher at higher population density area for Osaka area, while higher at lower population density area for Kuala Lumpur, which represents the different usage patterns of bicycle between the two areas.

Airline network choice and market coverage under high-speed rail competition

While the existing literature has focused on the short-term impacts, this paper investigates the long-term impacts of high-speed rail (HSR) competition on airlines. An analytical model is developed to study how an airline may change its network and market coverage when facing HSR competition on trunk routes. We show that prior to HSR competition, an airline is more likely to adopt a fully-connected network and cover fewer fringe markets if the trunk market is large. Under HSR competition, the airline will, for a given network structure, have a greater incentive to cover more fringe (regional or foreign) markets if the trunk market is large, or the airline network is close to hub-and-spoke. Further, the airline will, for any given market coverage, move towards a hub-and-spoke network when the trunk market is large, or the number of fringe markets covered by the airline network is large. Both effects are more prominent when the decreasing rate of airline density economies is large. We further show that HSR competition can induce the airline to adopt network structure and market coverage that are closer to the socially optimal ones, thereby suggesting a new source of welfare gain from HSR based on its long-term impacts on airlines. Implications for operators, policy makers and specific countries (such as China) are also discussed.     

A three-phase QFD-based framework for identifying key passenger needs to improve satisfaction with the seat of high-speed rail in China

This study aims to suggest a three-phased methodological framework based on the operational approach of quality function deployment (QFD) to improve the service quality and passenger satisfaction with China’s high-speed rail (HSR) by identifying the key passenger needs with regard the HSR seats. For the first phase, the collection of the voice of the customers/passengers (VOC), the processing of the collected VOC into need items and further into passenger needs of QFD would be explained in terms of knowledge management. For the second phase, a reference comparison-based fuzzy best–worst method is developed for determining the relative importance of passenger needs, with a particular purpose of coping with the uncertainty and ambiguity associated with qualitative assessment of respondents. For the third phase, the importance-performance analysis is performed to determine the improvement priorities for meeting passenger needs. Findings showed that Body-friendly seat structure and Reasonable layout of the seat are the two most important needs demanded by the passengers of second-class cabins, with the former being the top priority. The current study provides useful references for service operators of HSR to formulate development strategies for improving the seat comfortability, which subsequently contributes to improving HSR’s service quality and passenger satisfaction. Moreover, the proposed methodological framework for identifying the important passenger needs can be appropriately adjusted and expanded to similar transportation infrastructures and facilities.

     

Achieving environmental sustainability beyond technological improvements: Potential role of high-speed rail in the United States of America

In order to reduce energy use and cut emissions that contribute to climate change, countries need to radically reinvent their fossil-fuel intensive transportation systems. As a major consumer of energy and contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the U.S. transportation sector faces extraordinary challenges in the twenty-first century. Transportation in the U.S. depends heavily on fossil-fuel dependent cars and planes to the near exclusion of more energy-efficient electric trains. In order to address this concern, some policy makers refer to “technological optimism” which seeks no systemic change but instead focuses on employing technology to reduce the energy demand and environmental impact of the status quo. On the other hand, some researchers suggest a systematic paradigm shift away from cars and planes to intermodal systems that improve the sustainability of the system as a whole. High-speed rail (HSR) is arguably such an investment that can further this shift and help to achieve a more diversified and balanced transportation system. In this respect, by largely examining the role of the U.S. cars and planes “culture” in the economy, this paper elaborates on how building a HSR system may help U.S. advance towards environmental sustainability in transportation, make a break from the status quo, and create a more balanced, multimodal transportation system that will improve the quality and efficiency of travel.     

A network‐based model for estimating the market share of a new high‐speed rail system

This paper presents a novel application of static traffic assignment methods, but with a variable time value, for estimating the market share of high‐speed rail (HSR) in the northwest–southeast (NW–SE) corridor of Korea currently served by air, conventional rail and highway modes. The proposed model employs a time–space network structure to capture the interrelations among competing transportation modes, and to reflect their supply‐ and demand‐side constraints as well as interactions through properly formulated link‐node structures. The embedded cost function for each network link offers the flexibility for incorporating all associated factors, such as travel time and fare, in the model computation, and enables the use of a distribution rather than a constant to represent the time–value variation among all transportation mode users. To capture the value‐of‐time (VOT) of tripmakers along the target corridor realistically, this study has developed a calibration method with aggregate demand information and key system performance data from the NW–SE corridor.     

High speed rail and tourism: Empirical evidence from Spain

This paper evaluates how changes in the provision of high-speed rail (HSR) services affect tourism outcomes in Spain, a tourist country with the newest and longest HSR network in Europe. To do so it employs an empirical strategy based on the differences-in-differences panel data method with double fixed effects. Data are provided by Spain’s National Statistics Institute (INE) and cover 50 provinces over a 15-year time span (1998–2013). Our results provide mixed evidence about the impact of HSR accessibility on tourist outcomes. On the one hand, we find that air traffic is negatively affected by HSR and air traffic is a strong predictor of tourist arrivals. This suggests a negative indirect effect of HSR on tourist outcomes. On the other hand, HSR may have a positive (weak) direct effect on tourism. However, such result is conditioned on the measure of HSR accessibility and econometric technique used. Thus, the net effect of HSR on tourism outcomes is not consistently positive. This pattern might be attributed to a network design that does not respond to ridership needs and which has a substitution effect on air transportation, the main mode for long-distance tourist mobility.     

Application of Rock Fissure Grouting in a Deep Foundation Pit in the Kuala Lumpur Karst Region北大核心CSCD

For the bed rock of the foundation pit of the Bandar Malaysia North Station (BMNS) in Kuala Lumpur,the karst, fissure and cave are very developed, and curtain grouting, spud grouting and compaction grouting were conducted to achieve waterproofing and reinforcement. A Lugeon test and pumping test were carried out to test the grouting performance. The results show that the waterproofing effect of the Bandar Malaysia North Station (BMNS) is significant, meeting the basic requirements for waterproofing. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

Does European high-speed rail affect the current level of air services? An EU-wide analysis

This paper analyses whether the current provision of air services in Europe is impacted by high-speed rail (HSR). An ex-post analysis is carried out considering 161 routes EU-wide using transnational data. We use censored regressions with special attention paid to the presence of outliers in the sample and to the potential problem of non-normality of error terms. It is found that shorter HSR travel times involve less air services, with similar impact on both airline seats and flights. This impact quickly drops between 2.0- and 2.5-h HSR travel time. The impact of HSR frequencies is much more limited. Hubbing strategies led by the airlines have the opposite effect from HSR, as hubs involve more air services. Airline/HSR integration at the airport and cities being served by both central and peripheral stations have no significant impact. Metropolitan and national spatial patterns may help to better understand intermodal effects.     

A data perception model for the safe operation of high-speed rail in rainstorms

In order to solve the safety operation problems of High-speed rail (HSR) in different areas and different sections under the rainstorm condition, an early warning process for the rainstorm disaster is designed. Furthermore, in order to control the operation risk, a HSR operation program with different rainstorm degrees is given out based on the analysis of rainstorm warning mechanism and rainstorm warning threshold in this paper. In addition, considering the reality that natural conditions vary greatly and the rainfall is very uneven, a data perception model of rainstorm (DPM) is proposed with correction coefficients for solving the calculation problem of precipitation for rainstorm warning. The DPM mainly adopts Paulhus’s empirical equation and uses the linear function to improve it for calculating the precipitation, which is able to calculate the hourly precipitation in different regional environments, and also effectively evaluate the rainstorm warning level of high-speed rail in this period. It can calculate and monitor the process by big data and MATLAB. The result of case analysis shows that the DPM has good practical value for solving the safety operation problem of HSR in different areas under rainstorm environment.     

Effects of high-speed rail and airline cooperation under hub airport capacity constraint

This paper analyzes the effects of cooperation between a hub-and-spoke airline and a high-speed rail (HSR) operator when the hub airport may be capacity-constrained. We find that such cooperation reduces traffic in markets where prior modal competition occurs, but may increase traffic in other markets of the network. The cooperation improves welfare, independent of whether or not the hub capacity is constrained, as long as the modal substitutability in the overlapping markets is low. However, if the modal substitutability is high, then hub capacity plays an important role in assessing the welfare impact: If the hub airports are significantly capacity-constrained, the cooperation improves welfare; otherwise, it is likely welfare reducing. Through simulations we further study the welfare effects of modal asymmetries in the demands and costs, heterogeneous passenger types, and economies of traffic density. Our analysis shows that the economies of traffic density alone cannot justify airline–HSR cooperation.     

Assessment of schedule-based and frequency-based assignment models for strategic and operational planning of high-speed rail services

Despite some substantial limitations in the simulation of low-frequency scheduled services, frequency-based (FB) assignment models are by far the most widely used in practice. They are less expensive to build and less demanding from the computational viewpoint with respect to schedule-based (SB) models, as they require neither explicit simulation of the timetable (on the supply side), nor segmentation of OD matrices by desired departure/arrival time (on the demand side).The objective of this paper is to assess to what extent the lack of modeling capabilities of FB models is acceptable, and, on the other hand, the cases in which such approximations are substantial and more detailed SB models are needed. This is a first attempt to shed light on the trade-off between (frequency-based) model inaccuracy and (scheduled-based) model development costs in the field of long-distance (e.g. High-speed Rail, HSR) service modeling.To this aim, we considered two modeling specifications estimated using mixed Revealed Preferences (RP) and Stated Preferences (SP) surveys and validated with respect to the same case study. Starting from an observed (baseline) scenario, we artificially altered the demand distributions (uniform vs. time-varying demand) and the supply configuration (i.e. train departure times), and analyzed the differences in modal split estimates and flows on individual trains, using the two different model specifications.It resulted that when the demand distribution is uniform within the period of analysis, such differences are significant only when departure times of trains are strongly unevenly spaced in time. In such cases, the difference in modal shares, using FB w.r.t. SB, is in the range of [0%, +5%] meaning that FB models tend to overestimate HSR modal shares. When the demand distribution is not uniform, the difference in modal shares, using FB w.r.t. SB, is in the range of [−10%, +10%] meaning that FB models can overestimate or underestimate HSR modal shares, depending on timetable settings with respect to travelers’ desired departure times. The differences in on-board train flow estimates are more substantial in both cases of uniform and not uniform demand distribution.