The mobility and accessibility expectations of seniors in an aging population

Populations of post-industrial nations are aging. With a growing number of people living well into their 80s and maintaining active lives, the transportation system will have to start focussing more closely on understanding their mobility and accessibility needs, so as to ensure that specific requirements of this large segment are not being ignored through the promotion of traditional ‘solutions’ and historical assumptions. This paper takes a close look at the evidence on the mobility needs and travel patterns of individuals over 64, distinguishing between the “young” elderly (aged 65–75 years) and the “old” elderly (over 75 years). This distinction is particularly useful in recognising the threshold of health change that impacts in a non-marginal way on mobility needs. This distinction also focuses transport planning and policy on a commitment to understanding the different needs of these sub-groups of the population, identifying services and facilities that better cater for these groups. We review the evidence, in particular, on the mobility characteristics of the over 75 years age group, including how they secure support through migration and settlement patterns. We use the empirical evidence from a number of western nations to identify the role of conventional and specialised public transport as an alternative to the automobile in meeting mobility and accessibility needs.     

Perceived accessibility,mobility, and connectivity of public transportation systems

Although public transportation is considered effective at reducing the external cost of driving private vehicles, many urbanites do not use public transportation. This study develops measures employing accessibility, mobility, and seamless connectivity for an entire public transportation service chain as indicators for evaluating public transport services, prioritizes underperforming scenarios from the perspective of urban travelers, and derives various market segmentation strategies that consider different socio-demographic characteristics. A conceptual model is set up herein to assess these latent constructs that describe unobservable and immeasurable characteristics. As a Likert ordinal scale can generate misleading statistical inferences, the Rasch model is used to eliminate bias generated by an ordinal scale when measuring these three latent constructs separately. The Rasch model compares person parameters with item parameters, which are then subjected to logarithmic transformation along a logit scale so as to recognize specific difficulties of service scenarios that cannot be easily eliminated by certain urban travelers. The multidimensional Rasch model also measures the perceptions of urban travelers in terms of the interactions between accessibility, mobility, and seamless connectivity of this public transportation system. While comparing urban travelers of two large cities in Taiwan, Taipei and Kaohsiung, the empirical results demonstrate that perceived accessibility, mobility, and seamless connectivity differ based on travelers’ age, frequency of weekly sports activities, and environmental awareness. This paper also advances appropriate improvement strategies and provides policy suggestions for urban planners, public transportation service operation agencies, and policy makers when they seek to create user-friendly public transportation services. The proposed approach can be generalized in other cities by considering their local context uniqueness and further evaluating their public transport services.     

Benefit-cost analysis for labor intensive transportation systems

Labor-intensive systems such as bikeways and pedestrian ways suffer in transportation planning in part because traditional benefit-cost analysis focuses on narrow, private transportation savings (e.g., reducing vehicle and time costs).Planners need benefit-cost frameworks which capture the community-wide effects of such innovative transportation systems — reduction in air pollution, less congestion, and increases in exercise and outdoor recreation. This study discusses practical methods for planners to include such categories in their analyses and applies these methods to two case studies. The analysis yields benefit-cost ratios which are much higher than those found in most public projects — suggesting negative returns to marginal automobiles in congested areas such as university campuses. The paper concludes with some suggested bikeway planning guidelines that emerge from expanded benefit-cost analysis.     

Optimization Of Headway,Vehicle Size and Route Choice for Minimum Cost Feeder Service

ABSTRACT

Many people use public transportation systems to reach their destination, while others use personal vehicles. Poor transportation systems do not attract ridership. Therefore, the usage of passenger cars increases, and traffic and environmental conditions deteriorate. Efficient public transportation has been recognized as one of the potential ways of mitigating air pollution, reducing energy consumption, improving mobility and alleviating traffic congestion. The objective of this study is to optimize a bus feeder service that provides the shuttle service between a recreation center (e.g. Sandy Hook, NJ) and a major public transportation facility, subject to site-specific constraints such as vehicle schedules, bus availability, service capacity and budget. The decision variables include bus headway, vehicle size and route choice. The solution methodology integrating both analytical and numerical techniques is developed, which optimizes the decision variables. Finally, the proposed solution methodology is applied to a case study. Numerical results, including optimal solutions and sensitivity analyses, are presented while the level of coordination between the feeder service and a major transportation service is discussed.     

Effects of countdown timers on queue discharge characteristics of through movement at a signalized intersection

This study investigates how countdown timers installed at a signalized intersection affect the queue discharge characteristics of through movement during the green phase. Since the countdown timers display the time remaining (in seconds) until the onset of the green phase, drivers waiting in the queue at the intersection are aware of the upcoming phase change, and are likely to respond quicker. Thus, the countdown timers could reduce the start-up lost time, decrease the saturation headway, and increase the saturation flow rate. This study observed vehicle flow at an intersection in Bangkok for 24 h when the countdown timers were operating, and for another 24 h when the countdown timers were switched off. The signal plans and timings remained unchanged in both cases. Standard statistical t-tests were used to compare the difference in traffic characteristics between the “with timer” and “without timer” cases. It was found that the countdown timers had a significant impact on the start-up lost time, reducing it by 1.00–1.92 s per cycle, or a 17–32% time saving. However, the effects on saturation headway were found to be trivial, which implies that the countdown timers do not have much impact on the saturation flow rate of signalized intersections, especially during the off-peak day period and the late night period. The savings in the start-up lost time from the countdown timers was estimated to be equivalent to an 8–24 vehicles/h increase for each through movement lane at the intersection being studied.     

The positive utility of the commute: modeling ideal commute time and relative desired commute amount

Two measures of commute time preferences – Ideal Commute Time and Relative Desired Commute amount (a variable indicating the desire to commute "much less" to "much more" than currently) – are modeled, using tobit and ordered probit, respectively. Ideal Commute Time was found to be positively related to Actual Commute Time and to a liking and utility for commuting, and negatively related to commute frequency and to a family/community-oriented lifestyle. Relative Desired Commute, on the other hand, was negatively related to amounts of actual commute and work-related travel, but positively related to travel liking and a measure of commute benefit. Overall, commute time is not unequivocally a source of disutility to be minimized, but rather offers some benefits (such as a transition between home and work). Most people have a non-zero optimum commute time, which can be violated in either direction – i.e. it is possible (although comparatively rare, occurring for only 7% of the sample) to commute too little. On the other hand, a large proportion of people (52% of the sample) are commuting longer than they would like, and hence would presumably be receptive to reducing (although usually not eliminating) that commute.     

The taxi's role in urban America: Today and tomorrow

Changes in the economic and demographic characteristics of US cities over the past two decades have modified but have not diminished the need for extensive public transportation service in these areas. The vast bulk of trips to work, to shop, and for most other purposes within large American cities are still made by residents of those cities, a significant portion of whom do not own or have access to an automobile. Expensive and far-ranging programs to enhance surburban commutation to the central city by means of rail rapid transit do little to meet the needs of those who still must rely upon local, extensive service within the city.One form of public transport — the taxicab — offers the quality and flexibility of service which even those of limited means find well worth the price. As a consequence, fleet taxicabs serve almost 40 percent more passengers than all US rapid transit systems and about 60 percent as many passengers as all bus transit systems. Removal of archaic and restrictive regulations governing the number and use of taxicabs in major US cities would promote more effective and widespread use of this, the only form of public transit that still operates — at a profit — without public subsidy.     

Policy measures to promote electric mobility – A global perspective

Research that addresses policy measures to increase the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has discussed government regulations such as California’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) or penalties on petroleum-based fuels. Relatively few articles have addressed policy measures designed to increase the adoption of EVs by incentives to influence car buyers’ voluntary behavior. This article examines the effects of such policy measures. Two of these attributes are monetary measures, two others are traffic regulations, and the other three are related to investments in charging infrastructure. Consumer preferences were assessed using a choice-based conjoint analysis on an individual basis by applying the hierarchical Bayes method. In addition, the Kano method was used to elicit consumer satisfaction. This not only enabled the identification of preferences but also why preferences were based on either features that were “must-haves” or on attributes that were not expected but were highly attractive and, thus, led to high satisfaction. The results of surveys conducted in 20 countries in 5 continents showed that the installation of a charging network on freeways is an absolute necessity. This was completely independent from the average mileage driven per day. High cash grants were appreciated as attractive; however, combinations of lower grants with charging facilities resulted in similar preference shares in market simulations for each country. The results may serve as initial guidance for policymakers and practitioners in improving their incentive programs for electric mobility.     

Policy implementation of multi-modal (shared) mobility: review of a supply-demand value proposition canvas

ABSTRACT

Urban mobility options have increased in recent years, assisted by the widespread availability of smart device software apps, geo-positioning technology, and convenient electronic financial transactions. Multi-modal shared mobility consists of public transit systems and shared mobilities that support first/last mile travel, denoting the capability of Mobility as a Service (MaaS), and to stimulate additional non-private car travel demand. This paper reviews the supply and demand sides of implementation of multi-modal shared mobility. It found that an abundance of shared modes of car, bike, and e-scooter that are linked to public transport, can improve transport accessibility to meet specific public preferences, reduce social inequality, and minimise dilemmas from the demand side. This study introduces government policy innovations and other supporting system to improve the implementation of multi-modal shared mobility. Government policies play a key role in supporting shared mobility and technology development. However, governments do not have much information about new products such as shared mobility, which creates difficulties in subsidising multi-modal shared mobility services and potentially leads to policy failures around shared mobility schemes. This study suggests that policy entrepreneurship in collaboration with other partners, policy innovation, and the notions of merit goods and second-best policymaking can enable policy initiatives towards multi-modal shared mobility and provide supporting arguments if policies encounter failures. Implementing multi-modal shared mobility requires a collaborative partnership for a paradigm shift: service providers and government must jointly set a merit-based business model, with the support of organisations to achieve improved infrastructure provision, and smart technology applications. The findings will assist the community, business providers and government policymakers to promote multi-modal shared mobility as a pathway towards more efficient, environmentally sustainable, and socially responsive mobility solutions.     

Evaluating the assumption of independent turning probabilities

Several urban traffic models make the convenient assumption that turning probabilities are independent, meaning that the probability of turning right (or left or going straight through) at the downstream intersection is the same for all travelers on that roadway, regardless of their origin or destination. In reality most travelers make turns according to planned routes from origins to destinations. The research reported here identifies and quantifies the deviations that result from this assumption of independent turning probabilities.An analysis of this type requires a set of reasonably realistic “original” route flows, which were obtained by a static user-equilibrium traffic assignment and an entropy maximization condition for most likely route flows. These flows are compared with those route flows resulting from the Assumption of Independent Turning Probabilities (ITP). A small subnetwork of 3 km by 5 km in Tucson, Arizona, was chosen as a case study. An overall “typical ratio” of 2.2 between original route flows and ITP route flows was obtained. Aggregating route flows to origin–destination flows led to an overall “typical ratio” of 1.7. Such deviations are particularly high for routes that go back-and-forth, reaching a ratio of more than 3 in certain time periods. Substantial deviations for origins and destinations that are on the same border of the subnetwork are also observed in the analyses. In addition, under the ITP assumption, morning rush hour traffic peaking is the same in all directions, while in the original flows some directions do not exhibit a peak in the morning rush hour period. Overall, the conclusion of the paper is that the assumption of independent turning probabilities leads to substantial deviations both at the route level and at the origin–destination level, even for such a small network of the case study. These deviations are particularly detrimental when a network is being modeled and studied for route-based measures of effectiveness such as the number and types of routes passing a point – for monitoring specified vehicles and/or managing detouring strategies.     

Parents’ perspectives on using autonomous vehicles to enhance children’s mobility

Prior research has estimated the impact of an autonomous vehicle (AV) environment on the mobility of underserved populations such as adult non-drivers. What is currently unknown is the impact of AVs on enhancing the mobility of children who are also mobility disadvantaged, as child passengers are likely part of AV ridership scenarios in the perceivable future. To address this question, our study collected perceived benefits and concerns of AVs from a US convenience sample of parents whose children relied on them for mobility. We found that parents’ intentions to travel in AV and their technology readiness as well as parent (sex, residence area) and child (age, restraint system) demographic profiles were important determinants of potential AV acceptance and impact. In addition, two groups of potential AV users emerged from the data: the curious and the practical. This study addresses a gap in the literature by assessing parents’ perspectives on using AVs to transport children. The results have great potentials to guide the design of mobility features, safety evaluations, and implementation policies, as a decline in public interest in AVs has been recently documented.     

Electric vehicles for greenhouse gas reduction in China: A cost-effectiveness analysis

There have been ongoing debates over whether battery electric vehicles contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in China’s context, and if yes, whether the greenhouse gas emissions reduction compensates the cost increment. This study informs such debate by examining the life-cycle cost and greenhouse gas emissions of conventional vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles, and comparing their cost-effectiveness for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The results indicate that under a wide range of vehicle and driving configurations (range capacity, vehicle use intensity, etc.), battery electric vehicles contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions compared with conventional vehicles, although their current cost-effectiveness is not comparable with hybrid electric vehicles. Driven by grid mix optimization, power generation efficiency improvement, and battery cost reduction, the cost-effectiveness of battery electric vehicles is expected to improve significantly over the coming decade and surpass hybrid electric vehicles. However, considerable uncertainty exists due to the potential impacts from factors such as gasoline price. Based on the analysis, it is recommended that the deployment of battery electric vehicles should be prioritized in intensively-used fleets such as taxis to realize high cost-effectiveness. Technology improvements both in terms of power generation and vehicle electrification are essential in improving the cost-effectiveness of battery electric vehicles.     

The environmental effects of changing speed limits: A quantile regression approach

Two speed management policies were implemented in the metropolitan area of Barcelona aimed at reducing air pollution concentration levels. In 2008, the maximum speed limit was reduced to 80 km/h and, in 2009, a variable speed system was introduced on some metropolitan motorways. This paper evaluates whether such policies have been successful in promoting cleaner air, not only in terms of average pollutant levels but also during high and low pollution episodes. To do so, we use a quantile regression approach for fixed effect panel data, which allows us analyzing different scenarios (beyond the average levels). We find that the variable speed system improves air quality with regard to the two pollutants considered here, being most effective when nitrogen oxide levels are not too low and when particulate matter concentrations are below extremely high levels. However, reducing the maximum speed limit from 120/100 km/h to 80 km/h has no effect – or even a slightly increasing effect – on the two pollutants, depending on the pollution scenario.     

Spatial structure and mobility

The aim of this paper is to contribute to a clearer understanding of the extent to which the spatial structure and planning of the residential environment can explain mobility, in general, and the choice of mode of transport, in particular, and what spatial planning and traffic management aspects play a significant role in this. The research showed that certain aspects of the planned environment do indeed have a clear impact on mobility. These effects are particularly apparent in trips made for shopping and social or recreational purposes. It is mainly personal characteristics that largely or almost entirely determine commuter traffic. An integral approach to the planning of residential areas is required to achieve any great changes in mobility. Only then may we expect spatial planning to have any significant impact on car use.     

A panel data switching regression model of mobility and car ownership

The objective of this paper is to present a panel data model of car ownership and mobility. Unobserved heterogeneity is controlled for by including correlated random effects in the equations describing car ownership and mobility. A mass-points approach is adopted to control for unobserved heterogeneity. The results show that decisions concerning the first car in the household are difficult to affect; a large number of households are inclined to keep one car. Second car ownership may be more sensitive to changes in the observed contributing factors. This suggests that in The Netherlands policies aimed at changing second car ownership will be more successful than those aimed at influencing decisions concerning the first car in households. A major part of the correlation between the unobservables in the car ownership and the mobility equations is attributable to random effects. The time-variant errors of the mobility equations are not significantly correlated to car ownership decisions. This implies that mobility can only be influenced to a small extent by policy makers without measures aimed at reducing (second) car ownership.     

生物燃料丁醇作为发动机燃料的研究进展

生物丁醇与乙醇相比,具有更高的热值;还具有更小的水溶性腐蚀性,且燃烧后不产生氮化物和硫化物;可以减少温室气体的排放等优势,是继生物乙醇后的又一种新型的极富潜力的生物燃料。通过分析世界各国的研究结果可得到以下结论:丁醇所具有的潜能及优点足以作为未来可替代再生清洁能源之一。通过对比分析目前世界上丁醇的主要来源及制备流程,并结合近期丁醇研究所取得的成果,以及丁醇在汽柴油发动机上的应用成果,对丁醇未来作为替代燃料在汽柴油机上的发展做出了展望。     

Do motor-vehicle users in the US pay their way?

Governments in the US spend over a hundred billion dollars per year to build and maintain roads and provide a variety of services for motor-vehicle users. To pay for these infrastructure and services governments collect revenue from a variety of taxes and fees. The basic objective of this paper is to compare these government expenditures with the corresponding user tax and fee payments in the US. At the outset I argue that the such comparisons tell us something about the equity but not necessarily the economic efficiency of highway financing. I then present four different ways one might tally up government expenditures and user payments, depending on the extent to which one wishes to count “indirect” expenditures (e.g., on prosecuting car thieves) and non-targeted general-tax payments (e.g., severance taxes on oil). I make a comprehensive analysis of all possible expenditures and payments, and then compare them according to three of the four ways of counting expenditures and payments. The analysis indicates that in the US current tax and fee payments to the government by motor-vehicle users fall short of government expenditures related to motor-vehicle use by approximately 20–70 cents per gallon of all motor fuel. (Note that in this accounting we include only government expenditures; we do not include any “external” costs of motor-vehicle use.) The extent to which one counts indirect government expenditures related to motor-vehicle use is a key factor in the comparison.     

Measuring the impact of efficient household travel decisions on potential travel time savings and accessibility gains

Using the conceptual framework of time–space geography, this paper incorporates both spatio-temporal constraints and household interaction effects into a meaningful measure of the potential of a household to interact with the built environment. Within this context, personal accessibility is described as a measure of the potential ability of individuals within a household not only to reach activity opportunities, but to do so with sufficient time available for participation in those activities, subject to the spatio-temporal constraints imposed by their daily obligations and transportation supply environment. The incorporation of activity-based concepts in the measurement of accessibility as a product of travel time savings not only explicitly acknowledges a temporal dimension in assessing the potential for spatial interaction but also expands the applicability of accessibility consideration to such real-world policy options as the promotion of ride-sharing and trip chaining behaviors. An empirical application of the model system provides an indication of the potential of activity-based modeling approaches to assess the bounds on achievable improvements in accessibility and travel time based on daily household activity patterns. It also provides an assessment of roles for trip chaining and ride-sharing as potentially effective methods to facilitate transportation policy objectives.     

Optimizing route choice for lowest fuel consumption – Potential effects of a new driver support tool

Today, driver support tools intended to increase traffic safety, provide the driver with convenient information and guidance, or save time are becoming more common. However, few systems have the primary aim of reducing the environmental effects of driving. The aim of this project was to estimate the potential for reducing fuel consumption and thus the emission of CO₂ through a navigation system where optimization of route choice is based on the lowest total fuel consumption (instead of the traditional shortest time or distance), further the supplementary effect if such navigation support could take into account real-time information about traffic disturbance events from probe vehicles running in the street network. The analysis was based on a large database of real traffic driving patterns connected to the street network in the city of Lund, Sweden. Based on 15 437 cases, the fuel consumption factor for 22 street classes, at peak and off-peak hours, was estimated for three types of cars using two mechanistic emission models. Each segment in the street network was, on a digitized map, attributed an average fuel consumption for peak and off-peak hours based on its street class and traffic flow conditions. To evaluate the potential of a fuel-saving navigation system the routes of 109 real journeys longer than 5 min were extracted from the database. Using Esri’s external program ArcGIS, Arcview and the external module Network Analysis, the most fuel-economic route was extracted and compared with the original route, as well as routes extracted from criterions concerning shortest time and shortest distance. The potential for further benefit when the system employed real-time data concerning the traffic situation through 120 virtual probe vehicles running in the street network was also examined. It was found that for 46% of trips in Lund the drivers spontaneous choice of route was not the most fuel-efficient. These trips could save, on average, 8.2% fuel by using a fuel-optimized navigation system. This corresponds to a 4% fuel reduction for all journeys in Lund. Concerning the potential for real-time information from probe vehicles, it was found that the frequency of disturbed segments in Lund was very low, and thus so was the potential fuel-saving. However, a methodology is presented that structures the steps required in analyzing such a system. It is concluded that real-time traffic information has the potential for fuel-saving in more congested areas if a sufficiently large proportion of the disturbance events can be identified and reported in real-time.     

The costs and benefits of reducing SO2 emissions from ships in the US West Coastal waters

Potential costs and benefits of policy options for reducing offshore ship pollution are examined using a meta-analysis of studies synthesized regionally for the US West Coast. Net benefits of reducing SO₂ emissions from cargo ships in the US West Coast waters are found to range between $98 million and $284 million, annually; the benefit–cost ratio varies between 1.8 and 3.36, depending on the size of the control area and the sulfur content limit. The results show that about 21,000 tons of on-land equivalent SO₂ emissions or about 33% of SO₂ emissions from all mobile sources in California in 2005 can be reduced annually if the US West Coast exclusive economic zone is designated as an International Maritime Organization-compliant SO_x emission control area (SECA) with fuel-sulfur content not exceeding 1.5%. The analysis demonstrates that designating this area reduces more emissions than establishing a smaller zone at a lower but favorable benefit-cost ratio. Control measures that require 0.5% low-sulfur fuels reduce more SO₂ emissions, and also may have higher net benefits. Technological alternatives may achieve benefits of emissions reductions on the US West Coast across higher ranges of potential fuel prices. Combinations of fuel switching and control technology strategies provide the most cost-effective benefits from SECAs on the US West Coast and other world regions.